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Prediction topic

Elections

Public receipts across every tracked speaker and show.

Predictions1,527
Resolved552
Accuracy64.0%
Average boldness62.5

Republicans will win the Michigan United States Senate seat in the 2026 general election.

Original quote
Like, I think that Michigan is going to be an uphill battle for the Democrats because the more people find out about Abdul Elsai, the less they like him. ... I would suspect that Republicans hold Texas, hold Maine, hold Michigan, take Michigan and probably hold Iowa.
Quote begins at 42:40
Pending

Angie Nixon will not defeat Ashley Moody in the 2026 Florida United States Senate general election.

Original quote
The, this woman, in my view, Andrew has zero chance of beating the Republican, Ashley Moody, not just because she's a socialist and she seems to be kind of militant, which is going to be a turnoff to more moderate voters. But because she's a loon when it comes to cultural issues, just like most of these DSA types
Quote begins at 12:41
Pending

Candace Owens will not be arrested in 2026.

Original quote
apparently 8.5% of people think that Candace Owens is going to be arrested this year. I disagree, by the way. She's not going to be arrested because as said earlier, there's no evidence for the idea that she's wearing herself on street corner. So I don't think that's going to happen.
Quote begins at 20:08
Pending

Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

Original quote
...when the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives after the midterms, Democratic Congress member Garcia, who's now the ranking member of the House oversight committee, who will soon become the chairman of the House oversight committee, has made it clear that you will be one of the first people to get a subpoena.
Quote begins at 00:14
Pending

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will announce a campaign for president in the 2028 election before the presidential primary season begins, on or before 2027-12-31.

Original quote
Pretty much everybody, at least a huge majority of people in the calcium markets, which, again, a sponsor of ours, believe that she is going to announce a presidential run before the actual presidential season starts next year. Again, I find it hard to believe that she wouldn't.
Quote begins at 27:28
Pending

Bill Cassidy will no longer be a United States senator after the 2026 midterms.

Original quote
Let's talk about what went down in the Oval Office, but first let me show you what Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican from Louisiana, who is no longer gonna be the Senator after the midterms because Donald Trump didn't endorse him and his career is over because of Trump.
Jump to quote · 33:57
Pending

Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

Original quote
But the potential to end Trump's presidency in practice simply by taking the house, which seems more likely than not, no matter what happens in the Senate, we don't know by what margin, but by some margin taking the house, this is going to send Trump for a loop.
Jump to quote · 07:55
Pending

Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate general election by a larger percentage-point margin than he won the Democratic primary.

Original quote
I think that Abdul Elsaid is going to pick up a ton, not a little bit, but a shocking amount of independent votes in Michigan and going to win the general election easier than he won the primary.
Quote begins at 15:22
Pending

The Senate will vote on a continuing resolution that maintains existing Biden-era spending and extends federal funding until shortly before Christmas 2026, after which Congress will take up an omnibus spending bill.

Original quote
Also they're going to vote on a CR that still has the spending of Biden and Pelosi and kick the can down the road to right before Christmas where they're going to have omnibus.
Quote begins at 08:56
Pending

Tucker Carlson will not mount a credible campaign for president in 2028.

Original quote
Tucker's is like better run for president as I am to move to India and start my cricket career. I just don't think it's going to happen. Just disagree. Just don't think you might do it as a lark. But as a credible campaign, I don't believe it. I don't believe the support's there for it.
Jump to quote · 1:23:26
Pending

Zohran Mamdani will win the 2026 New York City mayoral election.

Original quote
I said that, look, hey, it's not a zero probability. In fact, it looks like it might happen unless the grassroots jump in and can defeat Abdul in Michigan and Tallarico in Texas. That on the evening before midnight strikes, on the evening of three November in the year of our Lord 2026, essentially 90 days away from this barcast right now, that a Ugandan Marxist jihadist named, Mom Donnie will be the mayor in total control of the greatest city in American history, New York City
Quote begins at 00:59
Pending

Democrats will win control of the United States House in the November 2026 midterm elections.

Original quote
President Trump's administration is if it is to end, either this November when these Marxists take the house or in 2028, if he determines he's not going to run for another term, you're going to have missed a golden opportunity because nothing's going to change.
Quote begins at 10:56
Pending

Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.

Original quote
That election is tomorrow. Make sure if you're in Michigan, you're voting. You could vote today too early voting has begun. And if you know anyone, friends or family in Michigan, make sure to let them know to vote because that election is America versus Israel. Abdul Al-Sayed represents America and we need that win badly. And I think we're going to get it.
Quote begins at 1:56:20
Outcome resolved 2026-08-04
Correct

Francesca Hong will win the August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor.

Original quote
This woman, Hong, again, she's probably going to win the Democrat primary for governor in Wisconsin today. Then she'll have to face off against a Republican for the actual job. But this is who the Democrats are likely to put up for for the post.
Quote begins at 13:53
Outcome resolved 2026-08-11
Incorrect

SpaceX shares will rise in after-hours trading following its August 4, 2026 first earnings report.

Original quote
So as much as I like to ship both SpaceX, if I were to make a bet, it would be that it will be a significant pop because of all the short selling and the anything but bad news will result in a short squeeze that sends the stock up temporarily.
Quote begins at 25:34
Outcome resolved 2026-08-04
Incorrect

Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.

Original quote
All right so if we move on from this it's primary day obviously all eyes are on Michigan I don't even know why we're looking at Michigan I seems to be like a four one conclusion that Abdul L. say it is going to win that race against Haley Haley Stevens.
Jump to quote · 20:46
Outcome resolved 2026-08-04
Correct

Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.

Original quote
We're in the dog days of summer officially, and schools get back in. But man Murderer's row DSA Murder's row is coming from Michigan. We have the long awaited for primary on the Democrat side and it happens tonight, and we are expecting l Sayed to win that. But let the voters decide in Michigan.
Quote begins at 01:27
Outcome resolved 2026-08-04
Correct

The United States will withdraw all of its military forces from Iraq by September 30, 2026.

Original quote
this war, it appears that we are approaching an actual full withdrawal from Iraq. As bases in the Kurdistan region face attacks from Iran and their proxies, Patriot air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones have already been removed.
Quote begins at 30:20
Pending

The 2026 United States House majority will be decided by no more than five seats, and the decisive races will have margins below 10,000 votes.

Original quote
The this is going to come down to a handful of house seats and the razors edge on that or the gaps on that are going to be in the hundreds, maybe the thousands of votes. So this is going to be as tight as you can ever imagine just to hold serve and holding serve ain't great, right?
Quote begins at 45:47
Pending

Russia will launch a massive winter offensive against Ukraine led by ballistic missiles during the 2026-2027 winter.

Original quote
Russia is going to do a massive winter offensive. The Russian Duma just said this war is going to only escalate and get much more violent until we take over all of Ukraine. And what Russia is going to use now that they know that Ukraine doesn't have the interceptors. They're going to lead with these ballistic missiles.
Quote begins at 08:22
Pending

The dispute blocking Todd Blanche's attorney-general confirmation will not be resolved by Tuesday, August 4, 2026.

Original quote
Hopefully this can be resolved by Tuesday, and you know, it's not going to be resolved by Tuesday because Donald Trump doesn't want to put it in writing that the waiver of his tax liability and him not being audited by the IRS.
Jump to quote · 06:42
Outcome resolved 2026-08-02
Incorrect