Head-to-head record
Near misses receive the public methodology’s half credit; timing misses remain zero-point misses.
Imperium Americanum Intelligence
Forecasting records you can interrogate.
Compare named speakers, isolate topics, inspect calibration and boldness, and jump from every aggregate back to the public receipt.
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Topic footprint
Share of logged predictions within the selected view.
Monthly performance
Resolved calls by publication month. Small samples are shown, not hidden.
Confidence calibration
Statement firmness compared with observed hit rate. Boldness remains a separate measure.