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Record #8240

Francesca Hong will win the 2026 Democratic nomination for governor of Wisconsin.

Incorrect

2 sourced occurrences

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 2 · source record #8240

    The Ben Shapiro Show · Ep. 2479 - Your Grandparents Would Kill for Your Grocery Bill

    Original quote
    So she's a total psychotic, and that's the person Democrats are going to choose to run for governor in Wisconsin.
    Jump to quote · 16:38
  2. Occurrence 2 of 2 · source record #8270

    The Ben Shapiro Show · Ep. 2481 - FINALLY: Trump ENDS Birth Tourism!

    Original quote
    Francesca Hong is the DSA candidate who is likely to become the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin.
    Jump to quote · 38:15
Prediction time2026-08-05

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-08-05
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-08-11
Boldness100 · Audacious

How the call settles

YES if certified primary results make Francesca Hong the Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin in 2026; NO if another candidate becomes the nominee.

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowle.... Applied stored rule: YES if certified primary results make Francesca Hong the Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin in 2026; NO if another candidate becomes the nominee.

Outcome evidence

The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.

Outcome date: 2026-08-11

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-16

Basis: research