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Political speaker record

John Podhoretz

On Commentary Magazine

Predictions113
Resolved29
Accuracy82.8%
Average boldness63.5

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Predictions

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Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.

Original quote
All right so if we move on from this it's primary day obviously all eyes are on Michigan I don't even know why we're looking at Michigan I seems to be like a four one conclusion that Abdul L. say it is going to win that race against Haley Haley Stevens.
Jump to quote · 20:46
Outcome resolved 2026-08-04
Correct

Kathy Hochul will win reelection as governor of New York in November 2026 — her Republican rival Bruce Blakeman will not prevail

Original quote
Kathy Hochl, the governor of New York, running for reelection this year, desperately trying, although she really nobody thinks that her rival, though he's actually a really good guy Bruce Blakeman, is going to prevail here
Jump to quote · 53:52
Pending

The DSA-aligned Democratic nominees in the Brooklyn-area House districts will win their seats in the November 2026 general election

Original quote
But now, like, now actually these people have to win, obviously, in several districts. There's no question that they will win. The Brooklyn seats are not... And there's no chance that a Republican is going to win. Any of the Brooklyn seats
Jump to quote · 02:43
Pending

The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be a DSA-style figure of the socialist left, not a middle-of-the-road governor

Original quote
what we should presume is that the nominee of the Democratic Party is not going to be some middle of the road, schlep governor or whatever they call middle of the road. It is more likely that it will be a person that emerges from this unholy and evil stew of anti-Semitism, socialism and anti-Americanism that is the DSA stew.
Jump to quote · 1:05:18
Pending

All three Mamdani-backed DSA candidates who won the June 2026 New York primaries (Lander, Chevalier, Valdez) will win their seats in Congress in November 2026

Original quote
The three candidates that he championed and sponsored are will end up in Congress in November because there will not be an incredible republican party counterweight to them in these overwhelmingly democratic districts.
Jump to quote · 02:05
Pending

No final US-Iran deal will be signed at the end of the 60-day negotiating window (~mid-August 2026); the talks will just be extended by another 60 days

Original quote
We don't actually think at the end of the 60 days, Trump and Mochte Baham in air are going to sit down together and sign a document. At the end of the 60 days, we're going to get another 60 days and another 60 days until after November
Jump to quote · 38:47
Outcome resolved 2026-08-18
Correct