Trump knows they're getting cooked in the midterms. He's already done this whole redistricting thing. It has helped to mitigate the losses, but they are still very much on track to lose the House and possibly the Senate as well.
He believes that will lead them to give up concessions at the negotiating table. I think it is far more likely that it leads them to escalate. I think that is a much more likely outcome here.
So even though you are likely doing Republicans in this seat, He's going to go for it in the off chance that he can hold on, because what else are you going to do with his life?
One of the I think primary test cases for this is Francesca hun who looks set to dominate the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor. That race happens next week.
this war, it appears that we are approaching an actual full withdrawal from Iraq. As bases in the Kurdistan region face attacks from Iran and their proxies, Patriot air defense systems that detect and shoot down incoming missiles and drones have already been removed.
You have another heated battle between Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig, Angie Craig being the establishment pick in Minnesota. It's looking very much like Peggy Flanagan is going to be able to win that battle.
now they've been able to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, very likely guaranteeing themselves as sort of endless stream of revenue from cargo ships, transiting the Strait of Hormuz
he just announced that they're slapping tariffs on generic drug imports, which is going to increase, logically increase the cost of those generic drugs, which are the less expensive alternatives to brand names here in the US
There's no end in sight and those economic indicators are just going to continue to decline. You know, we're going to have higher, even higher grocery price.
I'm very skeptical of this possibility of new negotiations because I don't think that the landscape for Trump has really shifted. He is not going to be willing to accept what the Iranians are willing to give at this point.
He's he's concerned that, you know, with Platiner being pulled in the messiness, et cetera. But I just think she was able to hang on for a long time based on just person only knowing people in the state. I just think partisan like hardening has gotten to the point now where that is not going to be sufficient, and almost no matter who they nominate.
This Trump's fantasy give the Save America Act not going to happen because you've got Mitch McConnell maybe alive, but certainly not in the Senate voting.
You could get both, And that is kind of where I am leaning as a likely outcome of this thing. I think it is definitely a bubble. I think it is going to crash.
Probably likely to on birthrights as citizenship. I mean, most scholars who looked at that one were like, not a chance. This one is very unlikely to go the way the Trump administration wants.
Pennsylvania is about to have two of the most left wing congressional representatives in the country. Chris Rabin Philly in summerly is already there in Pittsburgh
it looks like in these three key rulings, two of which have to do with like, you know who you can hire and fire, and the other one is the birthright citizenship thing, it looks like in two out of the three they're going to go against Trump.
it gets to the point of let's say it all goes smoothly over the sixty days. Seems unlikely, but let's say it all goes corner and plan. At the end of sixty days, we announced some deal arounds getting their sanctions of relief where you know, straight hoh hormons is open, oil is flowing, like things in the economy go relatively back to normal.
So when you consider, you know, how will these midterms compare with what was a very negative midterm result for them in twenty eighteen, I think all the signs are there that this will be an even bigger way for Democrats.
