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Political speaker record

Saagar Enjeti

On Breaking Points

Predictions149
Resolved49
Accuracy69.4%
Average boldness61.4

Topic footprint

Public receipts

Predictions

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The United States will ultimately pay Iran and accept Iranian tolls in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Original quote
Real surrender is going to be, here's your money, reopen the strait, you get to charge your tolls, we walk away, and the Saudis and everybody else will phase out our bases over time. That's actually what's going to happen eventually.
Quote begins at 18:41
Pending

The U.S. average gasoline price will reach $5 per gallon during the late-2026 cold-weather and hurricane season.

Original quote
I just think the American consumer has been hammered twice. COVID was a total disaster, and now gas prices which today I just looked four dollars a gallon on average. That seems to be the status quo. Because I was reading in the Wall Street Journal, we didn't get to this with Trita, that the Trump administration seems to think that they can live in this this status quo with Iran, this like we're you know, no war, no peace because gas is quote only four dollars a gallon, which we both know is just so devastating, not just for the inputs of everything that needs to be trucked, etc. Like all that, but really it just just eats away at any of the disposable income that people have. And it's about to get cold. So when it get cold, demanded all that stuff, it's going to go up hurricane season. That's all you need, and then next thing you are looking five dollars.
Quote begins at 38:35
Pending

The ICE officer who fatally shot a man in Biddeford, Maine will not be cleared in court - unlike most law-enforcement shooting cases, he will not get off

Original quote
I think most of them you're probably going to get off in a court of lot just because of the extraordinary deference that police get in law enforcement shootings. Not this one, definitely not.
Quote begins at 19:16
Pending

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will fall below its minimum operating level within the next week or two (by roughly the end of July 2026)

Original quote
This strategic Petroleum Reserve near its minimal operating levels. It will dip below that within the next week or two, which will lead to some very interesting conversations.
Timestamp not recorded
Outcome resolved 2026-07-31
Incorrect

Justice Samuel Alito will not resign from the Supreme Court in the current Congress; any retirement will have to wait until the next one

Original quote
you know, there was that other you remember, I think I was off that whole Alito resigning thing, which might have been happening. Yeah, it's not gonna happen now because you can have that confirmation battle's he's got to wait till the next
Quote begins at 1:03:40
Pending

Whoever Maine Democrats pick to replace Graham Platner as their Senate nominee will be hit with Republican negative ads essentially the day they are announced

Original quote
Whoever decides they're going to run, they will be hit with a negative ad the day that they get announced, and then it's just going to be blanket the entire state.
Quote begins at 44:38
Outcome resolved 2026-07-25
Correct