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Record #8167

Francesca Hong will win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Incorrect

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #8167

    The Ben Shapiro Show · Ep. 2476 - MUSLIM INVASION! Spain Overrun By Migrant Wave

    Original quote
    Francesca Hong, who's likely to be the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee.
    Jump to quote · 36:50
Prediction time2026-07-31

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-07-31
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-08-12
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if Francesca Hong wins the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor; NO if another candidate wins the nomination.

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowle.... Applied stored rule: YES if Francesca Hong wins the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for governor; NO if another candidate wins the nomination.

Outcome evidence

The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.

Outcome date: 2026-08-11

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-16

Basis: research