Imperium AmericanumIndependent intelligence · Public evidence
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Public accountability

Corrections stay on the record.

When a verdict, source, attribution, or claim is corrected, the public note remains attached to the permanent prediction receipt.

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #8213

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The cited record distinguishes Senate confirmation from swearing-in but does not establish when the presidential commission was signed. Neither event alone settles the registered formal-appointment deadline; the old final score and near-miss credit are withdrawn pending evidence of appointment.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #8085

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The original rule requires both a primary victory and certification as nominee. The cited election-night race call establishes neither a certification event nor its date. The prior evidence is incomplete for the registered event; this reopening does not assert that certification has never occurred.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #7825

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #7774

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #6595

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The negative forecast has no outer deadline. A politician's rejection of an idea is not sufficient evidence of the final legislative disposition under an open-ended rule. A defined finality event is needed before retaining the old YES.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #6299

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The record has no outer deadline for the negative payment claim. The absence of a payment provision in one agreement does not establish that no qualifying payment will occur. The prior YES is reopened pending a defined finality event and matching evidence.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #5953

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #5700

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The original claim names both Biden and Obama. The saved evidence establishes references to Biden but not the entire conjunction. The weaker slash-separated criterion cannot silently replace the quote; complete transcript evidence is required.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #5385

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The prior evidence describes the June agreement as ending the war and then reverses that interpretation based on later events. That contradiction does not support a stable verdict under the original rule. The agreement's status at the deadline needs review without hindsight-based rewriting.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #5276

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The approximate price forecast lacks a preregistered numeric tolerance and measurement convention. A retrospective choice of range cannot establish whether the observed price qualifies. The prior YES is reopened rather than inventing a tolerance.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #4691

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The existing evidence combines spending across parties and includes later runoff spending, while this receipt concerns the Republican primary alone. Comparable final party-only spending through the original primary is required before a final verdict.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #4061

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The claim covers the named funding package and any successor bill without an outer deadline. Evidence about one enacted package does not establish the full negative claim. The old YES is reopened without changing the original terms.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #4031

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved. Reopened as unresolved: The frozen account says US-Iran hostilities resumed only in July. CENTCOM reports direct US strikes in Iran on June 9, inside the recorded window, contradicting that premise. Reopened to assess the registered meaning of resumed open hostilities; neither the old near miss nor a July-based timing miss is supported.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-09-09

Prediction #3928

Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #8151

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #8074

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7652

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7481

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7465

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7449

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7447

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7428

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7414

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7377

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7372

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7369

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7348

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7335

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7334

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7314

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7308

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7295

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #7293

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6854

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6817

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6755

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6704

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6694

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6687

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its evidence provenance and semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6627

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6626

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6579

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6548

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6496

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6492

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6491

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6490

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6480

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6458

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6456

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6452

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6449

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6443

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6441

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6436

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6434

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6430

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6426

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6425

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6419

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6397

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6394

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6391

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6388

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6385

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6383

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6382

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6370

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6332

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6328

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6327

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6318

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6312

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6311

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6310

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6308

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6301

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6295

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6293

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6290

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6287

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6285

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6284

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6282

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6279

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6272

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6269

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6267

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6266

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6263

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6252

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6245

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6242

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6221

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6208

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6195

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6189

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6136

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6120

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6059

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6030

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #6027

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5917

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5890

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5875

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5756

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5754

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5741

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5734

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5665

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5664

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5662

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5625

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5580

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5503

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5474

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5459

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5416

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5403

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5393

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5364

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5339

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5333

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5270

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5248

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5244

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5219

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5192

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5181

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5180

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5164

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5159

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5154

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5152

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5150

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5147

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5141

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5129

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5118

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5016

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #5004

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4894

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4853

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4850

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4821

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4816

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4783

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4714

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4697

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4666

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4641

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4622

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4619

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4576

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4569

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4566

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4525

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4463

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4403

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4367

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4366

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4353

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4347

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4342

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4337

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4283

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4282

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4276

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4260

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4248

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4247

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4225

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4199

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4187

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4183

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4138

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4135

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4086

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4082

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4028

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #4008

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3951

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3938

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3932

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3931

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3888

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3875

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3871

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3858

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3842

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3821

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3753

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3745

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3743

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3735

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3715

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3706

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3699

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3696

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3695

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3681

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3656

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3634

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3559

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3532

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3509

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3483

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3480

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3454

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3450

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3443

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3394

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3382

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3371

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3364

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3363

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its evidence provenance and semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3353

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3334

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3323

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3319

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3303

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3290

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3276

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3274

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3271

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3250

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3242

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3230

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3225

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3218

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3209

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3202

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3199

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3187

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3181

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-22

Prediction #3179

The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because it did not meet the research-only evidence contract. No replacement verdict has been published.

Outcome · 2026-08-12

Prediction #7292

Removed an invalid near-miss annotation and added a zero-point timing miss: the same U.S. strike began 15 days after the explicit deadline. The underlying NO verdict remains unchanged.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-08-12

Prediction #7995

Changed the verdict from YES to NO. The claim expressly said the U.S.-Iran war would last days or weeks, not months; the ceasefire later collapsed and the war continued into August.

Correction evidence

Outcome · 2026-08-12

Prediction #7997

Removed the near-miss designation while retaining the NO verdict. 'Within the next few weeks' did not establish an explicit preregistered calendar deadline, and the temporary April ceasefire did not end the war.

Correction evidence