Record #8216

Donavan McKinney will defeat incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district.

Krystal Ball: On Breaking Points · Prediction made 2026-08-04

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #82162026-08-04
Breaking Points · 8/4/26: AIPAC Set For Defeat In MI, US Munitions Shortage, Israeli Settler Interview
Original quote
You've got Donovan Kinney who is against an incumbent Democrat, and again, looks very much like he's going to be able to prevail there.
Quote begins at 08:59
Full episode · omny.fm

Prediction time2026-08-04

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-08-04

FirmnessLoose

TopicElections

Resolve by2026-08-04

Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if Donavan McKinney receives the most votes and wins the Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district; NO if Shri Thanedar or another candidate wins.

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district, winning 51.9% to 48.1%.. Applied stored rule: YES if Donavan McKinney receives the most votes and wins the Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district; NO if Shri Thanedar or another candidate wins.

Outcome evidence

Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district, winning 51.9% to 48.1%.

Outcome date: 2026-08-04

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research