I just think the American consumer has been hammered twice. COVID was a total disaster, and now gas prices which today I just looked four dollars a gallon on average. That seems to be the status quo. Because I was reading in the Wall Street Journal, we didn't get to this with Trita, that the Trump administration seems to think that they can live in this this status quo with Iran, this like we're you know, no war, no peace because gas is quote only four dollars a gallon, which we both know is just so devastating, not just for the inputs of everything that needs to be trucked, etc. Like all that, but really it just just eats away at any of the disposable income that people have. And it's about to get cold. So when it get cold, demanded all that stuff, it's going to go up hurricane season. That's all you need, and then next thing you are looking five dollars.
Now they're going to go and recess. Now we're going to go back to run for reelection. Now you're going to have a lame duck and nothing's going to get done to codify this.
I personally think it would be a good move at this point for these guys to self-age gate. Say we're not letting anyone on the platform. I think they're gonna do that. They're gonna do it the night before it's about to pass and congress is one.
as crude oil only has maybe a few weeks to even be left. Like we're already at a tank bottom portion, but soon there'll just be no crude oil left in the US supply. We're already at the lowest inventory in 45 years.
We're at that stage right now where we're at a tank bottom stage. We'll soon be at a stage where there's no more, but it's this sludgy type of material now at the bottom that's harder to refine.
yeah, they're up already like 13 points this past week. And I think going to go up another 15 points this coming week, just because that's already baked into the wholesale prices.
even if we do get out of this, we're just all going to be paying three point fifty a gallon for forever, I mean, at this point, for the rest of Trump's presidency
But with this escalation, we can expect that to go up into the 90s and perhaps even higher, we'll see where that lands later today when the futures market opens
there was an article out this morning that barrel of oil is going to go to $105. It's currently at 90 and at 90, it's already causing worldwide economic downturn, enormous energy prices, energy shortages in Asia and in Europe. And that's at $90. It is definitely going to $105.
This strategic Petroleum Reserve near its minimal operating levels. It will dip below that within the next week or two, which will lead to some very interesting conversations.
That's of course, evanescent because inflation can start, you know, oil prices, they're already up from 65, a barrel to 75 or 80 a barrel just in the last week.
There very soon will no longer be a safety buffer to protect the world from further losses out of the strait because that strategic petroleum reserve feeds into the entire global oil market.
I mean, look, if Trump wants to keep oil prices down here in the United States by preventing the international trade of the oil and natural gas that's produced here in the US, I mean, that would be a choice. I don't think he's gonna do that though.
You could get both, And that is kind of where I am leaning as a likely outcome of this thing. I think it is definitely a bubble. I think it is going to crash.
Iran's got $12 billion of it right now. And every day they're going to be making $3 billion to $5 billion and become one of the wealthiest nations in the world. Right? That's just the reality.
Inflation is surging right now and I would not be shocked. The Fed is going to have to step in. They'll probably, as Bank of America says, have to raise interest rates two, three times maybe more at this point when they were supposed to do interest rate cuts.
We should begin to see gas prices come, which is good. You know, we're going to see it's still about four dollars a gallon nationally. They'll probably normalize around three point fifty or so.
But at the same time, the voters see what's happening to their own pocketbooks. They see the rising price of fuel. They're not gonna be happy about this. That's gonna hurt them and that's going to discourage them from reelecting some of these Republican lawmakers way more than anything else that the Trump administration is up to.
you're also probably going to see a decline in the larger market for tech stocks because I think so much capital is going to be sucked up by these guys
we will be hitting that point, as I've been saying now, every damn day, where the oil prices will be $160 a barrel, $200 a barrel. We're just moving towards that.
Since we started filling up strategic reserves, since literally the idea of a strategic reserve was created, we're about to soon have less in our strategic reserves than day one of filling up strategic reserves.
And I know I keep raising this red flag, but we're like a week and a half away from really running out of the kind of threshold number in our oil reserves, where all of a sudden you then see a dramatic spike.
President Trump is not doing away with the income tax. He would like to, but this is, I say, aspirational, and particularly when we're running these types of deficits.
because of the fact that the diplomatic talks are completely off and there are also talks about a different straight that Iran might block, oil prices are likely gonna go up to $160 per barrel
Grocery prices are never going back. They probably aren't even going to come down overall, but they are definitely never going back to the prices that there are people still waiting for.
And I think even the White House at one point honestly said, yes, gas will not be below three dollars a gallon for like a year. Yes, I think that's correct.
The median base case on Wall Street is that oil will remain over one hundred dollars a barrel for at least the next year. So what's that about four bucks a gallon something like that. So, yeah, good luck, We're all going to be paying that for quite a long time.
The national average of diesel today is five sixty six gallon, and the all time high is five eighty one. So give it what a week and we'll probably be there.
So now we were going to get cuts at the Fed for on interest rates. We're not getting that anymore. In fact, they'll probably raise interest rates, which will then hurt the economy even more because inflation is already out of control.
So okay, guys, here's a marker for you. Me versus all of Wall Street. And I'm going to tell you right now, all of Wall Street is dead wrong. And that market is going to crash like we haven't seen in our lifetimes.
So what's gonna happen to that market, hear me now quote me later, is when we go back into the war, cuz Netanyahu just ordered us back into the war, and then Trump ripped up the peace deal. And Trump just said today, there's only a 1% chance we don't go back into the war. Markets didn't go down and all, they're like, no, the war's almost over. Bye, bye, bye, okay? It's going to be a spectacular crash.