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Prediction topic

Economy

Public receipts across every tracked speaker and show.

Predictions259
Resolved67
Accuracy67.2%
Average boldness63.7

The U.S. average gasoline price will reach $5 per gallon during the late-2026 cold-weather and hurricane season.

Original quote
I just think the American consumer has been hammered twice. COVID was a total disaster, and now gas prices which today I just looked four dollars a gallon on average. That seems to be the status quo. Because I was reading in the Wall Street Journal, we didn't get to this with Trita, that the Trump administration seems to think that they can live in this this status quo with Iran, this like we're you know, no war, no peace because gas is quote only four dollars a gallon, which we both know is just so devastating, not just for the inputs of everything that needs to be trucked, etc. Like all that, but really it just just eats away at any of the disposable income that people have. And it's about to get cold. So when it get cold, demanded all that stuff, it's going to go up hurricane season. That's all you need, and then next thing you are looking five dollars.
Quote begins at 38:35
Pending

Meta will announce a self-imposed age gate within 24 hours before Congress passes federal social-media age-verification legislation in the 119th Congress.

Original quote
I personally think it would be a good move at this point for these guys to self-age gate. Say we're not letting anyone on the platform. I think they're gonna do that. They're gonna do it the night before it's about to pass and congress is one.
Quote begins at 42:43
Pending

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will fall below its minimum operating level within the next week or two (by roughly the end of July 2026)

Original quote
This strategic Petroleum Reserve near its minimal operating levels. It will dip below that within the next week or two, which will lead to some very interesting conversations.
Timestamp not recorded
Outcome resolved 2026-07-31
Incorrect

Trump will not restrict international exports of US-produced oil and natural gas in order to hold down domestic prices

Original quote
I mean, look, if Trump wants to keep oil prices down here in the United States by preventing the international trade of the oil and natural gas that's produced here in the US, I mean, that would be a choice. I don't think he's gonna do that though.
Quote begins at 39:56
Pending

The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least two times (instead of cutting) to rein in surging inflation

Original quote
Inflation is surging right now and I would not be shocked. The Fed is going to have to step in. They'll probably, as Bank of America says, have to raise interest rates two, three times maybe more at this point when they were supposed to do interest rate cuts.
Quote begins at 19:49
Pending

US national average gasoline prices will fall from about $4.00 a gallon and normalize around $3.50 a gallon following the end of the Iran war (by end of 2026)

Original quote
We should begin to see gas prices come, which is good. You know, we're going to see it's still about four dollars a gallon nationally. They'll probably normalize around three point fifty or so.
Timestamp not recorded
Pending

High fuel prices from the Iran war will cost Republican lawmakers seats in the November 2026 midterm elections

Original quote
But at the same time, the voters see what's happening to their own pocketbooks. They see the rising price of fuel. They're not gonna be happy about this. That's gonna hurt them and that's going to discourage them from reelecting some of these Republican lawmakers way more than anything else that the Trump administration is up to.
Quote begins at 11:37
Pending

US oil reserves will fall to a critical threshold around mid-June 2026, producing a dramatic spike in oil prices

Original quote
And I know I keep raising this red flag, but we're like a week and a half away from really running out of the kind of threshold number in our oil reserves, where all of a sudden you then see a dramatic spike.
Jump to quote · 05:57
Outcome resolved 2026-06-20
Incorrect

Oil prices will rise to about $150-$160 per barrel within weeks of early June 2026 because of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption

Original quote
because of the fact that the diplomatic talks are completely off and there are also talks about a different straight that Iran might block, oil prices are likely gonna go up to $160 per barrel
Quote begins at 27:43
Pending

Oil will remain above $100 per barrel for at least the next year (through roughly May 2027), rather than the price spike being a short-lived blip

Original quote
The median base case on Wall Street is that oil will remain over one hundred dollars a barrel for at least the next year. So what's that about four bucks a gallon something like that. So, yeah, good luck, We're all going to be paying that for quite a long time.
Timestamp not recorded
Pending

The US stock market will suffer a spectacular crash

Original quote
So what's gonna happen to that market, hear me now quote me later, is when we go back into the war, cuz Netanyahu just ordered us back into the war, and then Trump ripped up the peace deal. And Trump just said today, there's only a 1% chance we don't go back into the war. Markets didn't go down and all, they're like, no, the war's almost over. Bye, bye, bye, okay? It's going to be a spectacular crash.
Quote begins at 53:03
Pending