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Prediction topic

Immigration

Public receipts across every tracked speaker and show.

Predictions118
Resolved25
Accuracy84.0%
Average boldness64.0

The Department of Justice will not produce the privilege or redaction log sought in Katie Phang's Epstein-files lawsuit.

Original quote
So now the judge said, and I want to see the privilege log, which once that gets produced and that can then open up what we all suspect, you think they're ever going to turn over the privilege log? You think Blanche is ever going to turn over? No, they never going to.
Quote begins at 44:49
Pending

The suspect arrested for the incendiary device at the federal building in Lower Manhattan will turn out to be a radical left-wing / DSA / antifa-inspired actor

Original quote
this is probably I would put dollars to donuts here, Blake, that we're going to find out this was a DSA guy or some radical leftist anarchists, ANTIFA, somebody that's inspired by radical left wing ideology
Timestamp not recorded
Outcome resolved 2026-07-21
Correct

The ICE officer who fatally shot a man in Biddeford, Maine will not be cleared in court - unlike most law-enforcement shooting cases, he will not get off

Original quote
I think most of them you're probably going to get off in a court of lot just because of the extraordinary deference that police get in law enforcement shootings. Not this one, definitely not.
Quote begins at 19:16
Pending

Justice Samuel Alito will not resign from the Supreme Court in the current Congress; any retirement will have to wait until the next one

Original quote
you know, there was that other you remember, I think I was off that whole Alito resigning thing, which might have been happening. Yeah, it's not gonna happen now because you can have that confirmation battle's he's got to wait till the next
Quote begins at 1:03:40
Pending

The Trump administration will surge ICE enforcement into New York City

Original quote
I believe the guy. I for one believe the guy. So we're going to send people in. Is Trump pacing this a little bit? Does it happen right before the midterms or after the midterms or what? But I believe that they will do it
Quote begins at 43:23
Outcome resolved 2026-07-27
Correct

Rep. Jasmine Crockett's political career is finished: she will serve out her current House term and will not hold elected office after it ends in January 2027

Original quote
that's why I'm saying she's not confused. She is just going with the race thing and pandering her careers over. She's got to just got to serve out her term, but she's in, you know, redistricting has done her in.
Quote begins at 47:49
Pending

In Katie Phang's Epstein Files Transparency Act lawsuit, the Justice Department will argue that the Act provides no private cause of action or remedy

Original quote
What we expect the Department of Justice to argue is what they argued when Ro Khanna and Thomas Massey saw it as special master. We believe the Department of Justice is going to say the Epstein Transparency Act provides no cause of action or no remedy and nobody can do anything.
Jump to quote · 09:50
Outcome resolved 2026-06-05
Correct

Barack Obama will be formally implicated in the Justice Department's conspiracy case surrounding the Comey/Brennan investigation

Original quote
But that tells you, you see today that they have an overall theory of the case on this conspiracy, really a coup against President Trump and I believe that Obama is going to get wrapped up in this too given the meetings they had in the White House after President Trump won, sir.
Quote begins at 46:36
Pending

The Trump Justice Department's Miami prosecution of former DNI James Clapper will not succeed

Original quote
So the lawyers, I know are all like, he can't prosecute the gays and they don't have a case and it's not going to go anywhere. It's not going to work. But you never know. You get some jury, the wrong judge or jury in Florida, but probably won't work.
Quote begins at 34:55
Pending

The Supreme Court will rule against the conservative/administration position on birthright citizenship, i.e. it will uphold citizenship for U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants

Original quote
And guess what the sad truth is that it's probably the Supreme Court is going to rule against us. That's probably the sad truth. I pray I'm wrong.
Timestamp not recorded
Outcome resolved 2026-06-30
Correct

ICE officer Gregory Morgan Jr., charged with assault by Minnesota prosecutors, will be arrested and extradited rather than shielded

Original quote
I'm not going to advise anything, but I will just say if he was in West Virginia, he might be safe, but in Maryland, they are going to arrest him and ship him off and he is going to be paraded.
Quote begins at 12:00
Outcome resolved 2026-05-22
Correct

Donald Trump will remain in office until the scheduled end of his term in January 2029 — he will not be removed by impeachment or the 25th Amendment

Original quote
I think almost certainly Trump stays in power until the scheduled end of his term unless he dies or negotiates a resignation with a pardon. That's like a less likely but second possibility. I don't think we're going to see impeachment. I don't think we're going to see 25th amendment.
Jump to quote · 32:21
Pending

The Supreme Court will rule that US-born children of illegal immigrants ("anchor babies") are entitled to birthright citizenship and may stay in the country

Original quote
And the Supreme Court is going to rule that their anchor babies give them the, you know, the babies, the right to citizenship and that they can stay here.
Quote begins at 1:29:34
Outcome resolved 2026-06-30
Correct

The roughly 10 million-plus illegal immigrants who entered under Biden will not be removed from the United States; the large majority will still be in the country at the end of Trump's term

Original quote
Like we're never going to get those 10 million plus illegals out. Look what happened. We just tried to get one million out by having, you know, this more aggressive immigration deportation policy come to major American cities. It caused absolute chaos.
Quote begins at 1:29:05
Pending

The Supreme Court will rule against Trump's executive order and leave birthright citizenship in place for children of illegal immigrants and birth tourists

Original quote
The fact the Supreme Court is set to rule against in favor of keeping birthright citizenship despite the fact that every argument makes sense.
Quote begins at 1:37:49
Outcome resolved 2026-06-30
Correct

Congressional Democrats will not accept President Trump's offer of a $5 billion cut to ICE funding in exchange for passing the Save America Act

Original quote
So President Trump put out a truth basically saying he's loath to make a deal any concessions with Democrats, but he's willing to give them this five billion dollar cut off of ICE funding if they'll pass the Save America Act. I think we all know that they're not going to take this.
Quote begins at 22:46
Outcome resolved 2026-04-30
Correct

ICE will ignore Virginia's new restriction criminalizing federal immigration agents wearing face coverings during enforcement operations

Original quote
A restriction almost certain to be ignored by ICE, which has already obtained illegal ruling in federal court blocking a similar mask law in California as barred under the supremacy clause, these being federal officers controlled by federal law.
Quote begins at 12:15
Outcome resolved 2026-07-01
Correct

Andrew Mountbatten Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew) will not be sentenced to life in prison in the UK misconduct-in-public-office case arising from the Epstein files

Original quote
To make matters worse for him, misconduct in public office like this is apparently one of the most serious offenses in British law. If one is convicted, the potential sentence could be up to life in prison. There is zero chance Andrew is going to prison for life. This is that's BS, but okay, fine. It does technically carry that possible sentence.
Quote begins at 03:09
Pending

The Trump administration, driven by Stephen Miller, will return to Minneapolis-style aggressive ICE surge tactics after the current pullback

Original quote
Stephen Miller's like dedication to that project is not going anywhere, which is why I was saying earlier. You know, he's going to continue work and use whatever angles he can to get back to you know, exactly what he was doing in Minneapolis
Timestamp not recorded
Pending

Trump will not shift to an employer/business-targeted mass-deportation strategy (universal E-Verify or systematic raids on major agricultural, food-processing and hospitality employers)

Original quote
you could very easily have a significant mass deportation without any ice agents if you targeted the business community. But guess what, He's not going to do that because Iowa, Ohio, all these other red states have been all on the phone to him now for months saying that workplace raids are bad for business.
Timestamp not recorded
Pending

Epstein survivors will file a lawsuit against the Justice Department over its failure to redact their identifying information in the released Epstein files

Original quote
Expect the survivors and the victims to sue the DOJ. They're going to file a lawsuit soon. I'll bet you for leaking their names and providing, identifying information and violation of the Epstein Transparency Act
Jump to quote · 10:52
Outcome resolved 2026-03-27
Correct

The Minneapolis drawdown is only a tactical retreat: the Trump administration will mount another aggressive ICE occupation of a U.S. city

Original quote
I think it's a partial taco from Trump because I am very skeptical that this is anything more than a tactical retreat that we won't see, you know, another occupation of a city that pisses him off for whatever reason, that we will see a shift in tactics
Timestamp not recorded
Outcome resolved 2026-07-27
Correct

The Trump administration will deport all undocumented immigrants from the United States during Donald Trump's current term.

Original quote
The Washington Post said today, oh, Trump did so good on the border and closed the border, but he bit off more. He's the author of his own problem because he said he was going to deport everybody and that's impossible. It's not impossible. It's going to happen.
Quote begins at 12:13
Pending

Tim Walz and Minnesota will not accept the current federal off-ramp by agreeing to law-enforcement cooperation with ICE and transfers of covered detainees.

Original quote
Then he's Trump is giving an off-ramp for these people. They're not going to take it. They're simply not going to take it. You think walls is going to be like, you know what? Actually, I thought about it and I've decided that we are going to work with Donald Trump and my law enforcement will work with ICE and we're going to send the people who are in our prisons over to ICE and to be deported. He can't.
Quote begins at 1:01:11
Pending

Judge Paul Engelmayer or Judge Richard Berman will order the release of Epstein-related files after the Justice Department invoked the courts' jurisdiction.

Original quote
And now I think there's a shot that judge angle Meyer because that Trump opened the door and invoked the court's jurisdiction to try to set up the court. That could now backfire in the Trump DOJ's face. And now I think judge angle Meyer or maybe even judge Berman in the other case may say, you know what, let's release these files. You invoked our jurisdiction. Let's go put him out there.
Jump to quote · 15:09
Pending