Record #5954
One of Justice Gorsuch or Justice Barrett will vote against the administration in the tariffs case
CorrectRecorded occurrence
Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.
Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #5954 Verdict (Ted Cruz) · Detailed Prediction: Trump's Tariffs before the Supreme Court-What's Going to Happen
Original quoteI'm going to predict we're going to lose one, I don't know which, but I think we will lose in all likelihood either Gorsuch or Barrett
Quote begins at 29:15
Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.
How the call settles
Exactly one of Justices Gorsuch or Barrett does not join the majority upholding the IEEPA tariffs.
Our reasoning
YES on the research record because In the Feb. 20, 2026 decision (Learning Resources v. Trump, consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) the Court held 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs; Chief Justice Roberts' opinion was joined in full by Gorsuch and Barrett, so the administration lost both of the justices Cruz named (he predicted losing at least one). Note the drafting quirk: there was no majority upholding the tariffs, and both Gorsuch.... Applied stored rule: Exactly one of Justices Gorsuch or Barrett does not join the majority upholding the IEEPA tariffs.
Outcome evidence
In the Feb. 20, 2026 decision (Learning Resources v. Trump, consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) the Court held 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs; Chief Justice Roberts' opinion was joined in full by Gorsuch and Barrett, so the administration lost both of the justices Cruz named (he predicted losing at least one). Note the drafting quirk: there was no majority upholding the tariffs, and both Gorsuch and Barrett defected rather than exactly one.
Outcome date: 2026-02-20
Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09
Basis: research