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Prediction topic

Government & Policy

Public receipts across every tracked speaker and show.

Predictions87
Resolved18
Accuracy77.8%
Average boldness64.0

Congress is unlikely to pass the SAVE America Act during the current Congress.

Original quote
Now our sponsors over at Calchey, they suggest that actually not particularly high chances that Congress is going to pass the Save Act. It's currently at 7.5% on Calchey, which seems about right because, again, not a lot of Democrats going to sign on to the Save Act. And you don't have enough Republicans who want to nuke the filibuster full scale on behalf of this thing.
Jump to quote · 14:02
Pending

David Pakman's own US citizenship will not be revoked by the Trump administration

Original quote
And similarly, while I do not believe for a second that my citizenship will ever be taken from me, I think that just by messing with me and saying they're going to try to do it and making me lawyer up, they could make me have a pretty miserable few months or even longer.
Jump to quote · 51:29
Pending

The Trump administration/CFTC will win its lawsuit blocking Minnesota's ban on prediction markets

Original quote
They're going to win from what I understand, because of the way that they have defined the CFTC gets a broad amount of deference whenever it comes to derivatives contracts regulation. Especially with the current composition of the US Supreme
Timestamp not recorded
Outcome resolved 2026-07-27
Correct

Congress will not give Trump the $1.5 trillion defense budget he is proposing, though it will enact some increase

Original quote
Trump's proposing $1.5 trillion defense budget, which is, I don't know, 40% increase some insane increase, just the number they made up and is totally unmoored from reality. I suppose they're not going to get it. They'll get something though.
Quote begins at 36:52
Pending

Within the next 20 years (by ~2046) a member of Congress will be physically beaten/assaulted by another member inside Congress

Original quote
I think the next 20 years it's going to be nuts in politics. Yeah, like civil war guys, the divide between the there are variables that change this, but the divide between left and right right now is so extreme that when these people get into politics, someone's going to get cained in Congress.
Quote begins at 1:53:31
Pending

By the end of the Trump administration it will be revealed that Barron Trump and other Trump-administration-linked figures made large profits betting on prediction markets

Original quote
I think that when it's all said and done at the end of this Trump administration, we're going to find out Barron and a bunch of other bozos. We're making bank on these things.
Quote begins at 55:07
Pending

The 2030 Census reapportionment will move congressional seats and electoral votes away from blue states because of out-migration

Original quote
So they're voting with their feet and they're getting out and that's gonna affect the electoral college. That's gonna affect apportionments in Congress one hundred percent. You're gonna see those chickens come home to roost in twenty thirty in a big way.
Timestamp not recorded
Pending

Congress will break DHS funding out of the appropriations package and pass funding for the rest of the government separately, rather than splitting the budget bill by bill

Original quote
what's gonna happen next is as an important, they're gonna split it, but they're not gonna split it all the way. What they're gonna do is split the rest of the budget and just DHS.
Quote begins at 08:52
Outcome resolved 2026-02-03
Correct

The Trump administration will not actually use antitrust law to break up institutional investors' coordinated vacancy or pricing strategies under the housing order.

Original quote
they're alleging that if needed, they'll use antitrust laws to bust those investors, coordinated vacancy and pricing strategies. I mean, that first of all, let me just get this out of the way. I don't believe them. I don't think that they're actually going to do this.
Quote begins at 1:57:36
Pending

House Republican committee leaders James Comer and Jim Jordan will block efforts to investigate Donald Trump's health through the end of the 119th Congress.

Original quote
Look, James Colmer, who leads the House Oversight Committee and Jim Jordan, the House Judiciary and some of these other leaders, they're too cowardly. They're going to block this at every step. But Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries is calling for it.
Jump to quote · 03:43
Pending

Donald Trump's Cabinet will not invoke Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to remove him from presidential power during his second term.

Original quote
And now he's saying there's CT scans and Donald Trump's overall declining physical and mental condition and whether or not Donald Trump's capable really even to function as the executive and whether the 25th amendment should be invoked. Obviously, Trump's cabinet is too cowardly to ever do that.
Jump to quote · 03:13
Pending