Imperium AmericanumIndependent intelligence · Public evidence
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Record #7825

The United States will conduct a military strike against Iran by the end of January 2026.

Incorrect · 28 days late

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7825

    The Young Turks · Revisionist History - The Young Turks January 14, 2026

    Original quote
    and it appears based on the preliminary reports that the United States is going to strike Iran.
    Quote begins at 02:11
Prediction time2026-01-15

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-15
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-01-31
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if the United States conducts a kinetic military strike against a target in Iran by 2026-01-31; NO if it does not.

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because The existing NO for the end-of-January deadline is retained. CENTCOM confirms the qualifying military operation began February 28, after that deadline. The later strike supplies timing context only and earns no correctness credit.. Applied stored rule: YES if the United States conducts a kinetic military strike against a target in Iran by 2026-01-31; NO if it does not. Timing miss: The documented event on 2026-02-28 was 28 days late relative to the stored 2026-01-31 deadline; no correctness credit is added.

Outcome evidence

The existing NO for the end-of-January deadline is retained. CENTCOM confirms the qualifying military operation began February 28, after that deadline. The later strike supplies timing context only and earns no correctness credit.

Outcome date: 2026-01-31

Verdict recorded: 2026-09-09

Basis: research

Timing context

The documented event on 2026-02-28 was 28 days late relative to the stored 2026-01-31 deadline; no correctness credit is added.

Correction history

  1. Outcome

    Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved.

    Correction evidence