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Record #5734

Iran (and possibly other Gulf states) will keep retaliating against the United States and/or disrupting the global oil market even after Trump declares the war over

Pending

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #5734

    David Pakman · Declaring victory when you’re losing is a bad idea

    Original quote
    We I believe are now in an environment where Iran and potentially other Gulf states are going to continue either retaliating against the United States and or deliberately messing with the global oil market, even after Trump goes, okay, okay, we're done now.
    Jump to quote · 49:34
Prediction time2026-03-16

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-03-16
FirmnessLoose
TopicForeign Policy
Resolve by2026-06-30
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

After Trump declares hostilities with Iran concluded, credible reporting shows continued Iranian (or Gulf-state) attacks on US forces/interests or continued deliberate disruption of oil/LNG shipping

Our reasoning

Pending. It will be judged only by this stored rule: After Trump declares hostilities with Iran concluded, credible reporting shows continued Iranian (or Gulf-state) attacks on US forces/interests or continued deliberate disruption of oil/LNG shipping Deadline or event: 2026-06-30.

Correction history

  1. Outcome

    The previously published verdict has been withheld from public scoring because its semantic resolution date did not meet the public validation contract. No replacement verdict has been published.