Imperium AmericanumIndependent intelligence · Public evidence
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Record #7774

The United States or Israel could strike Iran on the night of January 13, 2026.

Incorrect · 46 days late

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7774

    Bannon War Room · Episode 5065: Using Local Sheriffs To Save The States; Trump Policies Spearhead Economic Growth

    Original quote
    So Cleopascale, there may be a strike in Iran tonight.
    Quote begins at 45:46
Prediction time2026-01-13

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-13
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-01-13
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if the United States or Israel conducts an acknowledged or reliably documented military strike on Iranian territory by the end of January 13, 2026; NO if no such strike occurs that night.

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because The existing NO for the January 13 deadline is retained. CENTCOM dates the later qualifying US/partner strikes to February 28. This adds measured late context, not near-miss credit, and does not replace the original deadline with the later event date.. Applied stored rule: YES if the United States or Israel conducts an acknowledged or reliably documented military strike on Iranian territory by the end of January 13, 2026; NO if no such strike occurs that night. Timing miss: The documented event on 2026-02-28 was 46 days late relative to the stored 2026-01-13 deadline; no correctness credit is added.

Outcome evidence

The existing NO for the January 13 deadline is retained. CENTCOM dates the later qualifying US/partner strikes to February 28. This adds measured late context, not near-miss credit, and does not replace the original deadline with the later event date.

Outcome date: 2026-01-13

Verdict recorded: 2026-09-09

Basis: research

Timing context

The documented event on 2026-02-28 was 46 days late relative to the stored 2026-01-13 deadline; no correctness credit is added.

Correction history

  1. Outcome

    Owner-directed Sol scoring review, with source/rule exceptions documented individually. Original claims and superseded verdicts are preserved.

    Correction evidence