Record #5808
US gas prices will rise further rather than fall in the period after early May 2026, because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and possible further US military action
CorrectRecorded occurrence
Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.
Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #5808 David Pakman · Everything is great other than all of this stuff
Original quoteAnd all of it should mean more of a price increase, no price decrease.
Jump to quote · 03:37
Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.
How the call settles
The US average regular gasoline price (AAA/EIA) rises above the ~$4.34/gal level of 2026-05-01 in the weeks following, rather than falling below it
Our reasoning
YES on the research record because In the weeks immediately following 2026-05-01 the AAA national average rose above the ~$4.34 baseline, hitting $4.55 on May 7 (up 25 cents for a second straight week) and peaking at $4.56 on May 21 — Memorial Day weekend prices were four-year highs. (Prices later fell back to $3.91 by June 25 after the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and were $4.09 on July 30, but the near-term rise the claim called for.... Applied stored rule: The US average regular gasoline price (AAA/EIA) rises above the ~$4.34/gal level of 2026-05-01 in the weeks following, rather than falling below it.
Outcome evidence
In the weeks immediately following 2026-05-01 the AAA national average rose above the ~$4.34 baseline, hitting $4.55 on May 7 (up 25 cents for a second straight week) and peaking at $4.56 on May 21 — Memorial Day weekend prices were four-year highs. (Prices later fell back to $3.91 by June 25 after the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and were $4.09 on July 30, but the near-term rise the claim called for did occur.)
Outcome date: 2026-05-07
Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09
Basis: research