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Record #8056

Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff.

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #8056

    The Ben Shapiro Show · Ep. 2430 - BRAINROT DEFEATED: Massie Loses In Kentucky

    Original quote
    Bottom line is Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, and that's basically all she wrote. That's the end of that Senate primary, which is slated to take place next week.
    Jump to quote · 29:34
Prediction time2026-05-20

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-05-20
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-05-26
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

YES if Ken Paxton wins the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff; NO if John Cornyn wins.

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Republican US Senate primary runoff on May 26, 2026, winning 63.8% of the vote after Trump's endorsement.. Applied stored rule: YES if Ken Paxton wins the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff; NO if John Cornyn wins.

Outcome evidence

Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Republican US Senate primary runoff on May 26, 2026, winning 63.8% of the vote after Trump's endorsement.

Outcome date: 2026-05-26

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research

Polling contextken-paxton

Margin 3.0 points · as of 2026-05-20 · Source