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Record #8042

James Fishback will receive less than 10 percent of the vote in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary.

Ben Shapiro: On The Ben Shapiro Show · Prediction made

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #8042

    The Ben Shapiro Show · Ep. 2420 - The Rise of The New Left

    Original quote
    You'll notice that he is wearing a half zip for James Fishbeck, the Florida candidate for governor who is going to clock in well below 10% in the Republican primaries.
    Jump to quote · 13:14
    Full episode on YouTube
Prediction time2026-05-06

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-05-06
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-08-18
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

YES if official results give James Fishback less than 10.0% of votes cast in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary; NO if he receives 10.0% or more.

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary was held on August 18, 2026. Byron Donalds won the nomination with 47.8% of the vote. James Fishback finished well down the field at approximately 4% of the vote, behind Donalds (47.8%), Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (about 18%) and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (about 8%). Fishback's share was therefore below the 10.0% threshold stated in the claim, so the claim a.... Applied stored rule: YES if official results give James Fishback less than 10.0% of votes cast in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary; NO if he receives 10.0% or more.

Outcome evidence

The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary was held on August 18, 2026. Byron Donalds won the nomination with 47.8% of the vote. James Fishback finished well down the field at approximately 4% of the vote, behind Donalds (47.8%), Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (about 18%) and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (about 8%). Fishback's share was therefore below the 10.0% threshold stated in the claim, so the claim as stated came true.

Outcome date: 2026-08-18

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-19

Basis: research

Polling contextjames-fishback

Margin -33.0 points · as of 2026-05-06 · Source