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Record #7989

The Senate will have a 50-50 partisan balance after the 2026 midterm elections.

Pending

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7989

    The Ben Shapiro Show · Friendly Fire: State of the Union Address Live

    Original quote
    The generic congressional ballot has the Democrats up at five points. In all likelihood, that means the Republicans not only lose the house, but probably the Senate falls to 50-50.
    Jump to quote · 11:22
Prediction time2026-02-25

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-02-25
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-11-03
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if certified 2026 election results produce 50 Republican-aligned and 50 Democratic-aligned senators in the incoming Senate, before any vice-presidential tie-breaking; NO if the balance is anything else.

Our reasoning

Pending. It will be judged only by this stored rule: YES if certified 2026 election results produce 50 Republican-aligned and 50 Democratic-aligned senators in the incoming Senate, before any vice-presidential tie-breaking; NO if the balance is anything else. Deadline or event: 2026-11-03.