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Record #7857

Venezuela will hold a national election that produces a new leader committed to democratic freedom and friendly relations with the United States within the next six months.

Incorrect

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7857

    Verdict (Ted Cruz) · Inside the Room with the Heroic Soldiers Wounded in the Maduro Raid & with Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado

    Original quote
    We could see elections in Venezuela, in Cuba and Iran, we could see leaders elected by the people who stand for freedom and who want to stand with America and be friends with America. We could see that in Venezuela, in Cuba, and Iran, Iran.
    Quote begins at 22:28
Prediction time2026-01-16

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-16
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-07-16
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if, by 2026-07-16, Venezuela holds a nationwide leadership election and the winner becomes or is formally selected to become the national governing leader while publicly committing to multiparty democracy, civil liberties, and friendly relations with the United States; NO if no such election and qualifying winner occur by that date.

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because National Assembly president Jorge Rodriguez explicitly ruled out near-term elections on February 10, 2026, saying stabilization must come first, and no Venezuelan national election was held by the July 16, 2026 deadline; opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said as of May 2026 she still planned to run only 'by end of 2026' at the earliest.. Applied stored rule: YES if, by 2026-07-16, Venezuela holds a nationwide leadership election and the winner becomes or is formally selected to become the national governing leader while publicly committing to multiparty democracy, civil liberties, and friendly relations with the United States; NO if no such election and qualifying winner occur by that date.

Outcome evidence

National Assembly president Jorge Rodriguez explicitly ruled out near-term elections on February 10, 2026, saying stabilization must come first, and no Venezuelan national election was held by the July 16, 2026 deadline; opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said as of May 2026 she still planned to run only 'by end of 2026' at the earliest.

Outcome date: 2026-07-16

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research