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Record #7800

Iran's current governing regime will fall within the next 90 days.

Incorrect

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7800

    Verdict (Ted Cruz) · Bonus: Daily Review with Clay and Buck with Ted Cruz

    Original quote
    I think there's a very real possibility that in the next ninety days we will see but the regime in Iran fall, and I think we could see the regime in Cuba fall.
    Quote begins at 07:36
Prediction time2026-01-13

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-13
FirmnessLoose
TopicForeign Policy
Resolve by2026-04-13
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

YES if Iran's current Islamic Republic governing regime loses national governing power through collapse, overthrow, or formal replacement on or before 2026-04-13; NO if it remains the national government through that date.

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, and Iran underwent a severe succession crisis, but the Islamic Republic system itself was not overthrown or formally replaced: his son Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as the new Supreme Leader by March 8, 2026, and the Islamic Republic government continued to exercise national governing power (including negotiating and later imposin.... Applied stored rule: YES if Iran's current Islamic Republic governing regime loses national governing power through collapse, overthrow, or formal replacement on or before 2026-04-13; NO if it remains the national government through that date.

Outcome evidence

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, and Iran underwent a severe succession crisis, but the Islamic Republic system itself was not overthrown or formally replaced: his son Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as the new Supreme Leader by March 8, 2026, and the Islamic Republic government continued to exercise national governing power (including negotiating and later imposing tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic) through and beyond the April 13, 2026 deadline.

Outcome date: 2026-04-13

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research