Record #6587
US inflation will keep rising and will not come down in the months after May 2026
IncorrectRecorded occurrence
Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.
Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #6587 The Bulwark · Bill Kristol: Trump's Revenge Tour Is Backfiring
Original quotethe public is a little ahead of the economists now and seeing that inflation is going back up, and it's certainly not going to come down soon
Quote begins at 33:29
Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.
How the call settles
US year-over-year CPI inflation readings for the months after May 2026 stay at or above the April 2026 reading rather than declining
Our reasoning
NO on the research record because CPI inflation did come down within two months of the claim: year-over-year CPI was 3.8% in April 2026, rose to 4.2% in May, then fell to 3.5% in June 2026 (headline CPI -0.4% for the month, the first pullback in the annual rate since January), below the April reading and beating the 3.8% consensus. That makes the 'stays at or above April' test already unmeetable.. Applied stored rule: US year-over-year CPI inflation readings for the months after May 2026 stay at or above the April 2026 reading rather than declining.
Outcome evidence
CPI inflation did come down within two months of the claim: year-over-year CPI was 3.8% in April 2026, rose to 4.2% in May, then fell to 3.5% in June 2026 (headline CPI -0.4% for the month, the first pullback in the annual rate since January), below the April reading and beating the 3.8% consensus. That makes the 'stays at or above April' test already unmeetable.
Outcome date: 2026-07-14
Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09
Basis: research