Record #6537
Trump will not send US ground troops (a Marine expeditionary force landing on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz) into Iran
PendingRecorded occurrence
Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.
Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #6537 The Bulwark · Bill Kristol: End the War
Original quoteSo I still am 60-40 that he doesn't do that. Bob is more to 60-40 the other way, I would say.
Quote begins at 10:44
Prediction time2026-03-16
Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.
Episode published2026-03-16
FirmnessLoose
TopicForeign Policy
Resolve by2026-12-31
Boldness55 · Notable
How the call settles
No US ground forces are landed/committed inside Iranian territory in the 2026 Iran war (public reporting/DoD confirmation of a ground or amphibious landing on Iranian soil would falsify)
Our reasoning
Pending. It will be judged only by this stored rule: No US ground forces are landed/committed inside Iranian territory in the 2026 Iran war (public reporting/DoD confirmation of a ground or amphibious landing on Iranian soil would falsify) Deadline or event: 2026-12-31.