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Record #5986

The war-driven gasoline price spike will be short term and U.S. gasoline prices will drop back down

Incorrect

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #5986

    Verdict (Ted Cruz) · Big Victories in Iran, More Risks of Terrorism at Home and Tucker & Dems Both Attack Trump

    Original quote
    My expectation is that will be a short term spike. I don't expect this conflict to last more than a couple of weeks, and I think you'll see gasoline prices drop back down.
    Timestamp not recorded
Prediction time2026-03-09

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-03-09
FirmnessLoose
TopicEconomy
Resolve by2026-06-30
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

The U.S. average retail regular gasoline price falls back to at or below its pre-conflict early-March 2026 level by mid-2026

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because EIA weekly US regular gasoline averaged $2.937 on 2/23/26 and $3.015 on 3/2/26 (pre-conflict/early-March level). It never returned to that level by June 30, 2026: it peaked at $4.500 on 5/11/26 and the lowest June reading was $3.831 on 6/29/26.. Applied stored rule: The U.S. average retail regular gasoline price falls back to at or below its pre-conflict early-March 2026 level by mid-2026.

Outcome evidence

EIA weekly US regular gasoline averaged $2.937 on 2/23/26 and $3.015 on 3/2/26 (pre-conflict/early-March level). It never returned to that level by June 30, 2026: it peaked at $4.500 on 5/11/26 and the lowest June reading was $3.831 on 6/29/26.

Outcome date: 2026-06-30

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09

Basis: research