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Record #5161

The Democratic nominee will win the New Jersey 11th district special general election in April 2026 by a double-digit margin

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #5161

    Breaking Points · 2/6/26: AIPAC Takes MAJOR L, NEW Epstein Cell Video, Job Numbers PLUMMET

    Original quote
    Forget about it, like it is going to win running it's not going to be close and double digits.
    Quote begins at 11:31
Prediction time2026-02-06

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-02-06
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-04-30
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

Certified results of the NJ-11 special general election (April 2026) show the Democratic nominee winning by 10 percentage points or more

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because In the April 16, 2026 NJ-11 special general election, Democrat Analilia Mejia defeated Republican Joe Hathaway 59.5% to 40% (AP call), a roughly 20-point margin, well above the double-digit threshold.. Applied stored rule: Certified results of the NJ-11 special general election (April 2026) show the Democratic nominee winning by 10 percentage points or more.

Outcome evidence

In the April 16, 2026 NJ-11 special general election, Democrat Analilia Mejia defeated Republican Joe Hathaway 59.5% to 40% (AP call), a roughly 20-point margin, well above the double-digit threshold.

Outcome date: 2026-04-16

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research