Imperium AmericanumIndependent intelligence · Public evidence
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Record #7817

Democrats will try to cause a federal government shutdown over funding for ICE by February 1, 2026.

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7817

    Bannon War Room · Episode 5069: Minnesota And Tim Waltz Wants To Play Games Against Trump's America; Exclusive With David Hoch

    Original quote
    They're gonna try to shut down the government on not funding ICE. They're then gonna come around. And on February 1st, from President Trump cuts off the money, takes them off the tit in California, in Illinois, in New York.
    Quote begins at 25:18
Prediction time2026-01-15

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-15
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-02-01
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

YES if congressional Democrats formally withhold support from required federal funding legislation on the ground that it funds ICE, thereby threatening or producing a shutdown, by 2026-02-01; NO if no such ICE-funding-based shutdown effort occurs by that date.

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because On January 29, 2026 (before the February 1 resolve-by date), Senate Democrats formally voted down the combined appropriations package specifically because it funded DHS/ICE/CBP without new accountability restrictions, forcing the DHS bill to be stripped out; this directly produced a funding lapse beginning January 31, 2026 -- Democrats' ICE-funding-based withholding both threatened and produced the shutdown by the d.... Applied stored rule: YES if congressional Democrats formally withhold support from required federal funding legislation on the ground that it funds ICE, thereby threatening or producing a shutdown, by 2026-02-01; NO if no such ICE-funding-based shutdown effort occurs by that date.

Outcome evidence

On January 29, 2026 (before the February 1 resolve-by date), Senate Democrats formally voted down the combined appropriations package specifically because it funded DHS/ICE/CBP without new accountability restrictions, forcing the DHS bill to be stripped out; this directly produced a funding lapse beginning January 31, 2026 -- Democrats' ICE-funding-based withholding both threatened and produced the shutdown by the deadline.

Outcome date: 2026-01-29

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research