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Record #7773

The federal government will shut down because Democrats try to defund ICE in the January 2026 funding fight.

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #7773

    Bannon War Room · Episode 5065: Using Local Sheriffs To Save The States; Trump Policies Spearhead Economic Growth

    Original quote
    Before that on 20 January, if we head down this path, the Democratic Democrats are going to try to shut down ICE by defunding it. And so I think we're going to a government shutdown, but that's fine.
    Quote begins at 08:00
Prediction time2026-01-13

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-13
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-01-31
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

YES if a lapse in federal appropriations begins by January 31, 2026 and the unresolved funding of ICE or the Department of Homeland Security is a material cause; NO if no such funding lapse begins by that date.

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because A federal funding lapse began January 31, 2026 after the Senate rejected a combined 6-bill appropriations package on January 29 over the DHS/ICE-CBP accountability dispute following the killing of Alex Pretti by a CBP agent; the Senate then split off DHS into a 2-week continuing resolution, but the House could not pass the revised package until February 3 under the 72-hour rule, so a lapse in appropriations occurred.... Applied stored rule: YES if a lapse in federal appropriations begins by January 31, 2026 and the unresolved funding of ICE or the Department of Homeland Security is a material cause; NO if no such funding lapse begins by that date.

Outcome evidence

A federal funding lapse began January 31, 2026 after the Senate rejected a combined 6-bill appropriations package on January 29 over the DHS/ICE-CBP accountability dispute following the killing of Alex Pretti by a CBP agent; the Senate then split off DHS into a 2-week continuing resolution, but the House could not pass the revised package until February 3 under the 72-hour rule, so a lapse in appropriations occurred with DHS/ICE funding as a material, proximate cause.

Outcome date: 2026-01-31

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-12

Basis: research