Record #6615

Ken Paxton will win the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary

Tim Miller: On The Bulwark · Prediction made 2026-05-21

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #66152026-05-21
The Bulwark · Amanda Carpenter, Sarah Longwell, & Sam Stein: Trump Gives His Family a Free Pass to Crime
Original quote
Yeah, I think it was a mistake. Paxton was going to win. A poll came out yesterday or two days ago that was in the field before the Trump endorsement. And Paxton was up eight.
Quote begins at 24:01
Full episode · audioboom.com

Prediction time2026-05-21

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-05-21

FirmnessFirm

TopicElections

Resolve by2026-05-26

Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

Certified Texas Republican Senate primary results show Ken Paxton winning

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Paxton won the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff with 63.8% to Cornyn's 36.2%, and advances to face Democrat James Talarico in November.. Applied stored rule: Certified Texas Republican Senate primary results show Ken Paxton winning.

Outcome evidence

Paxton won the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff with 63.8% to Cornyn's 36.2%, and advances to face Democrat James Talarico in November.

Outcome date: 2026-05-26

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09

Basis: research

Polling contextken-paxton

Margin 7.5 points · as of 2026-05-21 · Source