Record #6614

James Talarico will lose the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election to Ken Paxton

Tim Miller: On The Bulwark · Prediction made 2026-05-27

Pending

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #66142026-05-27
The Bulwark · Robert Kagan: A Total and Complete Shutdown of Trump
Original quote
And I think we assessed that he's the underdog still with Paxton.
Quote begins at 03:04
Full episode · audioboom.com

Prediction time2026-05-27

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-05-27

FirmnessLoose

TopicElections

Resolve by2026-11-03

Boldness58 · Notable

How the call settles

Certified Texas U.S. Senate general election results show Ken Paxton defeating James Talarico

Our reasoning

Pending. It will be judged only by this stored rule: Certified Texas U.S. Senate general election results show Ken Paxton defeating James Talarico Deadline or event: 2026-11-03.

Polling contextjames-talarico

Margin 4.3 points · as of 2026-05-27 · Source