Imperium AmericanumIndependent intelligence · Public evidence
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Record #6597

Trump's approval rating will keep falling below the record low it hit in May 2026

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #6597

    The Bulwark · Tom Nichols: There’s Something Wrong with the President

    Original quote
    The Nate Silver just dropped this morning, like his latest average of the polls and Trump's at his lowest approval rating ever, lower than after January 6th. And I think we got a ways to go.
    Quote begins at 51:36
Prediction time2026-05-13

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-05-13
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve byopen
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

A major polling average (e.g. Silver Bulletin) later in 2026 shows Trump's approval below the record low registered in mid-May 2026

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Trump's approval fell below the mid-May 2026 record low: Silver Bulletin registered net -18.9 (38.5% approve / 58.1% disapprove) on May 13, 2026, then hit a new second-term record low of net -20.6 (38.2% approve / 58.8% disapprove) on July 30, 2026 - lower than any point in his first term, including after January 6.. Applied stored rule: A major polling average (e.g. Silver Bulletin) later in 2026 shows Trump's approval below the record low registered in mid-May 2026.

Outcome evidence

Trump's approval fell below the mid-May 2026 record low: Silver Bulletin registered net -18.9 (38.5% approve / 58.1% disapprove) on May 13, 2026, then hit a new second-term record low of net -20.6 (38.2% approve / 58.8% disapprove) on July 30, 2026 - lower than any point in his first term, including after January 6.

Outcome date: 2026-07-30

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09

Basis: research