Record #6576
The attempted shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner will not halt Trump's decline in approval; his numbers will keep falling
CorrectRecorded occurrence
Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.
Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #6576 The Bulwark · Bill Kristol: Words Are Not Violence
Original quoteBut I don't think that what happened over the weekend is going to do anything to arrest his political decline. Maybe let's them buy a couple of news cycles, whatever nonsense they want to push about the ballroom, et cetera.
Quote begins at 32:43
Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.
How the call settles
Trump's national approval average does not rise durably above its late-April 2026 level (~33%) in the two months after the April 25, 2026 incident
Our reasoning
YES on the research record because Trump's approval did not recover after the April 25, 2026 incident: Silver Bulletin hit a second-term record low net -18.9 (38.5% approve / 58.1% disapprove) on May 13, slid to roughly 38% by late May, and June polls ran lower still (Reuters/Ipsos 35% on June 8; Marist recording his lowest overall second-term approval). No durable rise above the late-April level occurred in the two months after the incident.. Applied stored rule: Trump's national approval average does not rise durably above its late-April 2026 level (~33%) in the two months after the April 25, 2026 incident.
Outcome evidence
Trump's approval did not recover after the April 25, 2026 incident: Silver Bulletin hit a second-term record low net -18.9 (38.5% approve / 58.1% disapprove) on May 13, slid to roughly 38% by late May, and June polls ran lower still (Reuters/Ipsos 35% on June 8; Marist recording his lowest overall second-term approval). No durable rise above the late-April level occurred in the two months after the incident.
Outcome date: 2026-06-30
Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09
Basis: research