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Record #6298

Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the announced two-week ceasefire

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #6298

    The Young Turks · Trump Threatens Holocaust - April 7, 2026

    Original quote
    But Iran isn't going to open up the Strait of Hormuz and Iran has already cut off talks.
    Quote begins at 1:03:10
Prediction time2026-04-08

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-04-08
FirmnessFirm
TopicForeign Policy
Resolve by2026-04-22
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

The Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to unrestricted, toll-free transit during the announced two-week ceasefire period

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Despite Trump's condition of a 'COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING,' the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed through the April 8-22 pause: Iran charged transit tolls above $1 million per ship (a reported $2M/vessel scheme shared with Oman), only four dry-cargo ships passed on day one, and traffic ran roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels. Toll-free reopening only came via the June 17 MOU.. Applied stored rule: The Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to unrestricted, toll-free transit during the announced two-week ceasefire period.

Outcome evidence

Despite Trump's condition of a 'COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING,' the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed through the April 8-22 pause: Iran charged transit tolls above $1 million per ship (a reported $2M/vessel scheme shared with Oman), only four dry-cargo ships passed on day one, and traffic ran roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels. Toll-free reopening only came via the June 17 MOU.

Outcome date: 2026-04-22

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09

Basis: research