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Record #6145

Continued US strike missions in the Middle East will cost the US an aircraft or a ship to hostile fire

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #6145

    The Young Turks · Sour Lemon - January 30, 2026

    Original quote
    But you do enough of these missions and there's going to be a cost. At some point, somebody's going to take out a plane and somebody's going to take out a ship.
    Quote begins at 1:14:16
Prediction time2026-01-31

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-01-31
FirmnessFirm
TopicTechnology
Resolve byopen
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

A US military aircraft is shot down or a US Navy ship is struck by hostile fire during US strike operations in the Middle East

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because On April 3, 2026, Iranian forces shot down two US aircraft in separate incidents — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran (one crew member rescued, one missing) and an A-10 that crashed in the Persian Gulf after being struck — the first US combat aircraft losses of the war.. Applied stored rule: A US military aircraft is shot down or a US Navy ship is struck by hostile fire during US strike operations in the Middle East.

Outcome evidence

On April 3, 2026, Iranian forces shot down two US aircraft in separate incidents — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran (one crew member rescued, one missing) and an A-10 that crashed in the Persian Gulf after being struck — the first US combat aircraft losses of the war.

Outcome date: 2026-04-03

Verdict recorded: 2026-08-09

Basis: research