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Record #4807

Ken Paxton will defeat John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #4807

    Bannon War Room · Episode 5235: Grassroots Fight Back Against RINO Candidates

    Original quote
    But Ken Paxton, now two polls in Texas, Ken Paxton is up 16 against Cornyn in one, 18 against Cornyn the other, as I predicted that there's just no way. The more Cornyn puts out this money for these negative ads, really trying to destroy Ken Paxton, the more the grassroots base, the MAGA base turns against him.
    Quote begins at 02:24
Prediction time2026-03-21

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-03-21
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-12-31
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

Certified 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary results show Ken Paxton, not John Cornyn, as the nominee

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff, roughly 64% to 36% on about 1.38 million votes. The March 3 first round had sent them to a runoff with Cornyn narrowly ahead (about 42% to 41%); Paxton is the Republican nominee and Cornyn is the first Texas Republican senator to lose renomination.. Applied stored rule: Certified 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary results show Ken Paxton, not John Cornyn, as the nominee.

Outcome evidence

Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff, roughly 64% to 36% on about 1.38 million votes. The March 3 first round had sent them to a runoff with Cornyn narrowly ahead (about 42% to 41%); Paxton is the Republican nominee and Cornyn is the first Texas Republican senator to lose renomination.

Outcome date: 2026-05-26

Verdict recorded: 2026-07-30

Basis: research