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Record #4755

Hard-core Trump Republican voters in Texas will turn out on primary election day, Tuesday March 3, 2026, rather than in early voting, with Republican election-day votes exceeding Republican early votes

Steve Bannon: On Bannon War Room · Prediction made

Incorrect

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #4755

    Bannon War Room · Episode 5172: Biden DOJ Invited Fani Willis To Gain Gift Grant; What Is Happening With Cuba And In Mexico

    Original quote
    traditionally, particularly the harder core Trump base does not like voting early voting. They'll probably they're going to show up on Tuesday.
    Quote begins at 50:16
    Full episode · listen.warroom.org
Prediction time2026-02-26

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-02-26
FirmnessLoose
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-03-03
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

Texas Secretary of State primary turnout data show Republican election-day (March 3, 2026) votes exceeding Republican early/absentee votes

Our reasoning

NO on the research record because In the March 3, 2026 Texas primary, Republican turnout broke roughly 1.08M early votes to 1.07M Election Day votes (2.15M total), so Republican Election Day votes did not exceed Republican early votes; early voters were about 53% of all primary ballots statewide. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Miss was razor thin — Republican early votes 1.08M vs. Election Day 1.07M, under a 1% gap on the predicted crossover.. Applied stored rule: Texas Secretary of State primary turnout data show Republican election-day (March 3, 2026) votes exceeding Republican early/absentee votes.

Outcome evidence

In the March 3, 2026 Texas primary, Republican turnout broke roughly 1.08M early votes to 1.07M Election Day votes (2.15M total), so Republican Election Day votes did not exceed Republican early votes; early voters were about 53% of all primary ballots statewide. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Miss was razor thin — Republican early votes 1.08M vs. Election Day 1.07M, under a 1% gap on the predicted crossover.

Outcome date: 2026-03-03

Verdict recorded: 2026-07-30

Basis: research