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Record #4698

No candidate will clear 50%+1 in the March 3, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, so the race will go to a runoff

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #4698

    Bannon War Room · Episode 5134: Airspace Shut Down Over El Paso; Making Sure The 2026 Election Is Safe

    Original quote
    Everybody I think right now, the consensus is it would be very difficult for any of the candidates, including Paxton, to get to 50% plus one vote. So we're going to go to a runoff
    Quote begins at 39:29
Prediction time2026-02-11

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-02-11
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-03-03
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

Certified March 3, 2026 Texas GOP Senate primary results show no candidate above 50%, triggering a runoff

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because In the March 3, 2026 Texas GOP Senate primary, Cornyn took 42% and Paxton 41%, with Wesley Hunt third at 13.5% — no candidate reached 50%+1, sending the race to a May 26, 2026 runoff, which Paxton won.. Applied stored rule: Certified March 3, 2026 Texas GOP Senate primary results show no candidate above 50%, triggering a runoff.

Outcome evidence

In the March 3, 2026 Texas GOP Senate primary, Cornyn took 42% and Paxton 41%, with Wesley Hunt third at 13.5% — no candidate reached 50%+1, sending the race to a May 26, 2026 runoff, which Paxton won.

Outcome date: 2026-03-03

Verdict recorded: 2026-07-30

Basis: research