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Record #4533

Iran will not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week window proposed by Pakistan's prime minister

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #4533

    The Megyn Kelly Show · Trump's "Civilization Will Die Tonight" Iran Warning, and Tucker's Harsh Critique, with Glenn Greenwald | Ep. 1290

    Original quote
    And for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during that two-week period, I don't think that Iran is going to do that.
    Quote begins at 32:22
Prediction time2026-04-07

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-04-07
FirmnessLoose
TopicForeign Policy
Resolve by2026-04-21
Boldness55 · Notable

How the call settles

Shipping and government reporting shows Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic during the proposed two-week pause

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because During the April 8-21 two-week pause the Strait of Hormuz was never restored to normal traffic: volumes stayed roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels under IRGC-supervised selective passage, advance permission and transit tolls up to $2 million per vessel, with 800+ ships stranded; US-Iran talks collapsed April 12 and Trump declared a naval blockade. Actual reopening did not come until the June 15, 2026 deal.. Applied stored rule: Shipping and government reporting shows Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic during the proposed two-week pause.

Outcome evidence

During the April 8-21 two-week pause the Strait of Hormuz was never restored to normal traffic: volumes stayed roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels under IRGC-supervised selective passage, advance permission and transit tolls up to $2 million per vessel, with 800+ ships stranded; US-Iran talks collapsed April 12 and Trump declared a naval blockade. Actual reopening did not come until the June 15, 2026 deal.

Outcome date: 2026-04-21

Verdict recorded: 2026-07-30

Basis: research