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Record #4072

The Strait of Hormuz will not reopen to normal shipping in the near term after late May 2026 (not by roughly the end of June 2026)

Correct

Recorded occurrence

Each quote retains its own speaker, episode, publication date, timestamp when available, and full-source link.

  1. Occurrence 1 of 1 · source record #4072

    MeidasTouch · MeidasTouch Full Podcast - 5/22/26

    Original quote
    here we stand, by all accounts, the Strait of Hormuz, no, not going to be opening up anytime soon
    Jump to quote · 1:12:20
Prediction time2026-05-22

Exact speaking time unavailable; using the official episode publication date.

Episode published2026-05-22
FirmnessFirm
TopicElections
Resolve by2026-06-30
Boldness70 · Bold

How the call settles

Normal commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz has NOT been restored (blockade/closure still in effect) as of the end of June 2026

Our reasoning

YES on the research record because Normal commercial transit was not restored by June 30, 2026. After the June 17 MoU the strait nominally reopened June 18, but Iran declared it shut again on June 22 (transits fell to 12 vessels vs 35 the prior day), and from June 18 to July 5 only 513 vessels transited — about 28 per day versus roughly 100 daily prewar. Five commercial vessels were attacked between June 25 and July 7.. Applied stored rule: Normal commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz has NOT been restored (blockade/closure still in effect) as of the end of June 2026.

Outcome evidence

Normal commercial transit was not restored by June 30, 2026. After the June 17 MoU the strait nominally reopened June 18, but Iran declared it shut again on June 22 (transits fell to 12 vessels vs 35 the prior day), and from June 18 to July 5 only 513 vessels transited — about 28 per day versus roughly 100 daily prewar. Five commercial vessels were attacked between June 25 and July 7.

Outcome date: 2026-06-30

Verdict recorded: 2026-07-30

Basis: research