{"format_version":2,"generated_at":"2026-09-10T19:15:22+00:00","release_id":"sha256:d774fadaa5c63e933abfe81d1758d1cba3f0f1d369f295cdd8ddb6d894969311","editorial_start":"2026-01-01","summary":{"accuracy":68.4,"commentators":18,"correct":656,"episodes":2359,"near_misses":7,"poll_snapshots":54,"predictions":3167,"resolved":964,"shows":14,"speakers":18,"timing_misses":4,"prediction_occurrences":3192},"pundit_registry":{"format_version":1,"minimum_resolved_predictions":20,"resolved_definition":"A prediction counts as resolved only when outcome is YES or NO.","featured_basis":"editorial_coverage","featured_disclosure":"Selected editorially for broad recognition and depth of the current qualified record. This is not a measured audience-popularity ranking.","featured_speakers":["Ben Shapiro","Megyn Kelly","Steve Bannon","Ben Meiselas","David Pakman","Scott Galloway"],"qualified_speakers":["Ana Kasparian","Andrew Kolvet","Ben Meiselas","Ben Shapiro","Cenk Uygur","Dave Rubin","David Pakman","John Podhoretz","Krystal Ball","Megyn Kelly","Saagar Enjeti","Scott Galloway","Steve Bannon","Ted Cruz","Tim Miller","Tim Pool"],"retained_receipt_speakers":["Bill Kristol","Kara Swisher"],"people":[{"speaker":"Ana Kasparian","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Andrew Kolvet","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Ben Meiselas","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Ben Shapiro","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Bill Kristol","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":false},{"speaker":"Cenk Uygur","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Dave Rubin","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"David Pakman","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"John Podhoretz","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Kara Swisher","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":false},{"speaker":"Krystal Ball","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Megyn Kelly","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Saagar Enjeti","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Scott Galloway","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Steve Bannon","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Ted Cruz","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Tim Miller","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true},{"speaker":"Tim Pool","domain":"Politics","scorecard_eligible":true}]},"public_evidence_context":{"format_version":1,"outcome_policy":"Polling is context only. Official records are review-required evidence candidates. Neither changes a verdict automatically.","polling":{"status":"unavailable","generated_at":null,"expires_at":null,"release_id":null,"source":{"id":"decision-labs","display_name":"Decision Labs","documentation_url":"https://www.decisionlabs.ai/docs/api","attribution":"Decision Labs (decisionlabs.ai)"},"races":{}},"official_records":{"status":"unavailable","generated_at":null,"expires_at":null,"release_id":null,"records":{}}},"prediction_fields":["id","pundit","speaker","show_name","attribution_confidence","claim","firmness","firmness_score","topic","boldness_score","boldness_label","prediction_made_at","published_date","resolve_by","logged_on","outcome","near_miss","timing_miss","timing_direction","timing_delta_days","poll_race_id","current_poll_context_id","official_record_context_ids","occurrence_count","latest_occurrence_date","_receipt_chunk"],"predictions":[[15213,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will hold the Iowa United States Senate seat in the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15212,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will win the Michigan United States Senate seat in the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15211,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will hold the Maine United States Senate seat in the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15210,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will hold the Texas United States Senate seat in the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15209,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Angie Nixon will not win the 2026 Florida United States Senate general election; Ashley Moody will defeat her.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15208,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Byron Donalds will win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15207,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Angie Nixon will not defeat Ashley Moody in the 2026 Florida United States Senate general election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-19",0],[15216,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-18","2026-08-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-21",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-18",0],[15204,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Senator Jon Ossoff will run for the Democratic presidential nomination, despite currently denying that he will.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-18","2026-08-18","2028-11-07","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-18",0],[15203,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","uncertain","Alina Habba will be named the next White House press secretary, succeeding Karoline Leavitt.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-08-18","2026-08-18",null,"2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-18",0],[15201,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Byron Donalds will win the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary held on August 18, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-18","2026-08-18","2026-08-19","2026-08-19","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-18",0],[15198,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Save America Act will not be enacted into law before the 119th Congress ends.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-18","2026-08-18","2027-01-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-18",0],[15215,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Alina Habba will be named White House press secretary to succeed Karoline Leavitt.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-21",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15195,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Republicans will lose control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15193,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","South Korea will acquire a nuclear weapon within the next decade.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2036-12-31","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15192,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-19",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15182,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Additional public allegations of misconduct against Maine Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson will emerge before the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15177,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","JD Vance will be the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2028-12-31","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15176,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Candace Owens will not be arrested in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-17","2026-08-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-17",0],[15190,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-16","2026-08-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-16",0],[15163,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Mike Johnson will lose the Speakership of the House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-16","2026-08-16","2027-01-03","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-16",0],[15181,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 general election for U.S. Senate in Michigan.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-15","2026-08-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-15",0],[15159,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Enes Freedom Kanter will not play a single minute in the WNBA","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-08-15","2026-08-15","2027-12-31","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-15",0],[15158,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The WNBA will block the men who have declared themselves eligible for the WNBA draft","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-08-15","2026-08-15","2027-05-31","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-15",0],[15187,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will announce a campaign for president in the 2028 election before the presidential primary season begins, on or before 2027-12-31.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-14","2026-08-14","2027-12-31","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-14",0],[15179,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tucker Carlson will become a Democrat and publicly advocate for moderate Democratic candidates during the 2028 election cycle.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-14","2026-08-14","2028-11-07","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-14",0],[15178,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The WNBA will not entertain the formally submitted draft paperwork of Enes Kanter Freedom and Royce White.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-08-14","2026-08-14","2027-04-30","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-14",0],[15160,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Roger Marshall will win his 2026 US Senate election in Kansas","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-08-14","2026-08-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-08-15",0],[15175,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Byron Donalds will win the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2026-08-25","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[15174,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Michelle Tafoya will not win the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[15173,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Federal immigration enforcement officers will be deployed at United States polling places.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[15172,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The former Southern Poverty Law Center CFO arrested in the federal fraud case will enter a plea or cooperation agreement with federal prosecutors rather than go to trial.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2026-10-05","2026-08-17",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[15171,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States conflict with Iran will not end before Donald Trump's presidency ends","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2029-01-20","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[15167,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will win control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2027-01-03","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[15166,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-13","2026-08-13","2027-01-03","2026-08-16",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-13",0],[8301,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will not win the 2028 United States presidential election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","2028-11-07","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8298,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Egypt will join the Mecca Pact defense alliance.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-08-11","2026-08-11",null,"2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8296,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Bill Cassidy will no longer be a United States senator after the 2026 midterms.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","2027-01-03","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8294,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","2026-11-03","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8292,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The U.S.-Iran conflict and standoff will continue for multiple years.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","2028-08-11","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8291,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will escalate against the United States rather than grant concessions in response to continued economic pressure.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-08-11","2026-08-11",null,"2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8290,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States will ultimately pay Iran and accept Iranian tolls in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-11","2026-08-11",null,"2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-11",0],[8289,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The WNBA will block Enes Kanter Freedom and Royce White from playing under the league's current transgender eligibility rules.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2027-05-31","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8288,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will run for president in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2028-11-07","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-08-11",0],[8286,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will exit the war with Iran without obtaining a nuclear agreement.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8285,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Iran will not capitulate to the U.S. blockade strategy before the 2026 midterm election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8284,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","The Democratic candidate will win North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8283,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Donald Trump will not secure a Gaza peace agreement during his presidency.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2029-01-20","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8282,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8281,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The U.S. average gasoline price will reach $5 per gallon during the late-2026 cold-weather and hurricane season.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2026-12-31","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8280,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will face an impeachment effort beginning early in 2027.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-08-10","2026-08-10","2027-03-31","2026-08-12",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-10",0],[8279,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The USS Theodore Roosevelt will not be ready to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln before Christmas 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-09","2026-08-09","2026-12-25","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-09",0],[8277,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","A forthcoming Iran-Oman agreement will give Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-08","2026-08-08",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-08",0],[8276,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The United States Senate will not pass the SAVE America Act before the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-08","2026-08-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-08",0],[8274,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","United States gross federal debt will reach $40 trillion by the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-08","2026-08-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-08",0],[8273,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Todd Blanche will be confirmed as United States attorney general.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-08-08","2026-08-08","2026-08-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-08",0],[8272,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Abdul El-Sayed will lose the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate general election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-07",0],[8271,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate general election by a larger percentage-point margin than he won the Democratic primary.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-07",0],[8267,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Paramount and California Attorney General Rob Bonta will settle their antitrust case before the trial scheduled for March 2027 begins.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2027-03-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-07",0],[8266,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Supreme Court will affirm the D.C. Circuit decision blocking construction of Donald Trump's White House ballroom.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2027-06-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-07",0],[8265,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Bill Cassidy will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general, and Blanche will be confirmed by the Senate.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-07",0],[8262,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will vote on a continuing resolution that maintains existing Biden-era spending and extends federal funding until shortly before Christmas 2026, after which Congress will take up an omnibus spending bill.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-07","2026-08-07","2026-12-25","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-07",0],[8261,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 general election for United States senator from Michigan.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8260,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Tucker Carlson will not mount a credible campaign for president in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2028-11-07","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8259,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Department of Justice will take up the Anthony Fauci contempt-of-Congress matter approved by the Senate committee.","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-08-06","2026-08-06",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8254,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Department of Justice will not produce the privilege or redaction log sought in Katie Phang's Epstein-files lawsuit.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-08-06","2026-08-06",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8249,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","James Talarico will win the 2026 general election for United States senator from Texas.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8248,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 general election for United States senator from Michigan.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8247,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Zohran Mamdani will win the 2026 New York City mayoral election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8246,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 general election for United States senator from Texas.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8245,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","James Talarico will be elected U.S. senator from Texas in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8244,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Abdul El-Sayed will be elected U.S. senator from Michigan in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-06","2026-08-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-06",0],[8243,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Francesca Hong will win the 2026 Democratic nomination for governor of Wisconsin.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8242,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Marco Rubio will not win the Republican presidential nomination in 2032.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2032-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8241,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Melat Kiros will be elected U.S. representative for Colorado's 1st Congressional District in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8240,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Francesca Hong will win the 2026 Democratic nomination for governor of Wisconsin.","Firm",90,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-08-07",0],[8239,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Francesca Hong will not be elected governor of Wisconsin in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8238,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Jeanine Pirro will soon leave her position as U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia by being fired or resigning.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-08-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8236,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Max Miller will drop out of his 2026 U.S. House reelection campaign.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8235,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Tommy Tuberville will be elected governor of Alabama in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8234,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Max Miller will continue pursuing reelection to the U.S. House in 2026 rather than withdraw from the race.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8233,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrats will win control of the United States House in the November 2026 midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-05","2026-08-05","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-05",0],[8231,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8230,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Francesca Hong will win the August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8229,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Francesca Hong will win the August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8227,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX shares will rise in after-hours trading following its August 4, 2026 first earnings report.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8225,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Jeanine Pirro will be fired or forced to resign as United States attorney for the District of Columbia by August 31, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-31","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8224,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Todd Blanche will issue another order restoring or replacing the anti-weaponization fund order by August 5, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-05","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8222,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran and Oman will conclude the shipping agreement under discussion by August 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-31","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8221,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Mitch McConnell will not resume meaningfully performing his duties as a United States senator before his term ends in January 2027.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8220,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8219,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8218,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Byron Donalds will win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8217,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Francesca Hong will win the August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8216,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Donavan McKinney will defeat incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8215,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will not enact legislation codifying federal artificial-intelligence safeguards before the 119th Congress ends.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8214,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States Senate will not take up the SAVE America Act before its August 2026 recess.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-07","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8213,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will formally appoint Todd Blanche as permanent attorney general by August 8, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-08","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8212,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States Senate will confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general by August 7, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-07","2026-08-11","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8211,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8210,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8209,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Control of the United States House after the 2026 election will come down to no more than 16 pivotal seats.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-04","2026-08-04","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-04",0],[8206,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for United States senator from Michigan.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8205,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Thomas Massie will launch a campaign for president of the United States by November 3, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8204,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Abdul El-Sayed will be elected United States senator from Michigan in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8203,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The 30-year United States Treasury yield will reach 5.5 percent by November 3, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8198,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Abdul El-Sayed will be elected United States senator from Michigan in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8197,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Francesca Hong will become the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-08-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8196,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The United States will withdraw all of its military forces from Iraq by September 30, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-09-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8195,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States Supreme Court will side with Kalshi in the litigation over federally regulated event contracts, making the disputed contracts legal nationwide.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2027-08-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8194,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Todd Blanche will be confirmed and sworn in as United States attorney general by August 8, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-08-08","2026-08-11","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8193,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Todd Blanche will receive a party-line Senate committee vote with no Democratic support on August 4, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8192,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The 2026 United States House majority will be decided by no more than five seats, and the decisive races will have margins below 10,000 votes.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-03","2026-08-03","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-03",0],[8191,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Jeanine Pirro will lose her license to practice law by August 2, 2027.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-08-02","2026-08-02","2027-08-02","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-02",0],[8190,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Jeanine Pirro will resign or be fired as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia by August 9, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-02","2026-08-02","2026-08-09","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-02",0],[8189,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Japan will announce on Monday, August 3, 2026, that it coordinated with the United States to intervene in currency markets to support the yen.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-08-02","2026-08-02","2026-08-03","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-02",0],[8188,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","General Alexis Grynkewich will be forced out or fired during the Trump administration because he publicly warned about U.S. military readiness.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-08-02","2026-08-02","2029-01-20","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-02",0],[8185,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Donald Trump will retain the Qatari-gifted jet for his own use after leaving office.","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2029-01-20","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8184,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The newly announced Gaza agreement between Hamas and Israel will not be implemented.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2027-07-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8183,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United Arab Emirates will transfer the advanced Nvidia Blackwell chip or its capabilities to China.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2029-01-20","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8182,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Russia will launch a massive winter offensive against Ukraine led by ballistic missiles during the 2026-2027 winter.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2027-03-20","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8181,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The final confirmed death toll from the referenced Russian strike on Kyiv will be between 15 and 20 people.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2026-08-15","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8180,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will not put in writing that the anti-weaponization fund and associated tax-liability protections are terminated during the Todd Blanche confirmation fight.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8179,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The dispute blocking Todd Blanche's attorney-general confirmation will not be resolved by Tuesday, August 4, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2026-08-04","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8178,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Gianni Infantino will lose his position as FIFA president during the current presidential cycle.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2027-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8177,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will use another continuing resolution for its next federal-government funding action.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-08-01","2026-08-01","2026-09-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-08-01",0],[8176,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","All 53 Republican senators will vote to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt if the contempt finding reaches a full Senate vote.","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",0],[8175,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will vote 8-7 along party lines to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",0],[8174,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The current Israel-Hamas ceasefire will be broken by one of the parties.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2027-07-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8173,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Hamas will not disarm under the current Gaza peace agreement.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2027-07-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8172,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Save America Act will not pass the United States Senate by the end of the 119th Congress.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8171,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","John Fetterman will face a Democratic primary challenger when he next runs for the United States Senate in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2028-04-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8170,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will not lose five United States Senate seats in the 2026 election cycle.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8169,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Roy Cooper will win the 2026 North Carolina United States Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8168,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas United States Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8167,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Francesca Hong will win the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nomination.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-08-12","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8163,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The proposed Trump-family-backed FIFA privatization will be rebranded, renegotiated, or materially reduced before September 19, 2026, rather than privatizing the World Cup as proposed.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-09-19","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8162,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Democrats will win Maine's 2026 United States Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8161,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Roy Cooper will win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election and replace Thom Tillis.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8159,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration's tariff and industrial policy will not increase United States manufacturing employment by the end of Trump's term.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2029-01-20","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8157,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Bruce Blakeman will be rejected by voters and will not win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8156,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Ted Cruz will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-31","2026-07-31","2028-07-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-31",1],[8153,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Neither Congress nor the Justice Department will take formal action against Anthony Fauci over the evidence discussed in the episode by the end of the 119th Congress.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8152,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Byron Donalds will win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election and become the next governor of Florida.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-11-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8151,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Houthis will attack additional Saudi Arabian refineries or other infrastructure by the end of July 30, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8150,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Additional military strikes will occur in Yemen by July 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8149,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will retaliate against the next United States strike by July 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8148,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will conduct another direct military strike on Iran by July 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8147,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Houthis will strike additional oil refineries in Saudi Arabia by August 13, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-08-13","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8146,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S.-supplied interceptor missiles promised to Ukraine through Europe will not reach Ukraine by December 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8145,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8144,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The war involving the United States and Iran will not end by July 31, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-30","2026-07-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-30",1],[8142,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Zohran Mamdani will be the next new Democratic U.S. senator from New York.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8140,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chuck Schumer will not win another Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in New York.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8138,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Direct kinetic hostilities involving the United States or Israel against Iran will resume by August 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2026-08-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8137,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested during his September 2026 visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2026-09-30","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8136,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Byron Donalds will win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8135,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Anthony Fauci will retain his federal government pension through July 29, 2027.","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2027-07-29","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8134,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Anthony Fauci will not be imprisoned as a result of the current congressional investigation into his COVID-era conduct.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8133,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States under Donald Trump will materially escalate its direct military campaign against Iran beyond its July 29, 2026 level by August 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2026-08-31","2026-08-11","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8132,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","China will deliver hundreds of man-portable shoulder-fired missiles to Iran during the current conflict.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8131,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","A major benchmark crude-oil price will reach at least $125 per barrel during the current conflict.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8130,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb will be controlled through tolling systems during the current conflict.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8129,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","An independent candidate will win Idaho's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8126,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Iran will not succeed in assassinating Melania Trump or Barron Trump during the current U.S.-Iran conflict.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8125,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration will not reinstate a U.S. military draft by August 31, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2026-08-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8124,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","U.S. grocery prices will rise about 3.1% in 2026 and about 3.1% in 2027.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-29","2026-07-29","2027-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8123,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Peggy Flanagan will defeat Angie Craig in their Minnesota Democratic primary contest.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-29","2026-07-29",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-29",1],[8122,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","New York City's five city-run grocery stores will create food deserts in five different areas.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8121,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","New York City's city-run grocery stores will run out of goods, be unable to restock fast enough, and develop long lines and shortages.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8120,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","New York City's subsidized city-run grocery stores will cause nearby bodegas to go out of business.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8118,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New York City's subsidized city-run grocery stores will cause competing private grocery stores to leave the city.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8117,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Anthony Fauci will testify under oath before Congress on July 29, 2026.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-07-29","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8116,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","No new houses or apartment buildings will be built in New York City during Zohran Mamdani's mayoral tenure.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8115,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Meta will announce a self-imposed age gate within 24 hours before Congress passes federal social-media age-verification legislation in the 119th Congress.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8114,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Paramount's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery will not close.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8112,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The judge will reject the state challenge on the merits and permit Paramount's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery to close.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8110,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The trial over the state challenge to Paramount's proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery will not begin in fall 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-12-20","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8109,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Donald Trump will give remarks at Lindsey Graham's funeral on July 28, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[6515,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US war against Iran will continue rather than end, despite the current pause in bombing","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[5935,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's promised health care plan (ending payments to big insurance companies and giving the money directly to people) will not be enacted before the end of his term","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[5933,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will not retain control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[5468,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will collect an ongoing stream of revenue from commercial cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[5467,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump's newly announced tariffs on generic drug imports will raise the price of generic drugs in the US","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[5466,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","US grocery prices will keep rising between late July 2026 and the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[5465,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Francesca Hong will win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2026-08-11","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[4454,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will blame Congress's failure to pass the Save America Act (and Democrats coming into power) for the economic depression rather than his own policies","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[4452,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States is heading into an economic Great Depression","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[4451,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Continued US military escalation will not produce regime change in Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[4449,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran and its allies (the Houthis and other 'axis of resistance' groups) will blow up the pipelines built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz while continuing to choke off the Red Sea at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-28","2026-07-28","2027-07-28","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-28",1],[8106,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The U.S. Senate will not cancel its scheduled August 2026 recess.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2026-08-10","2026-08-11","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[8105,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Violence will occur in New York City in connection with protests over Benjamin Netanyahu's visit during the next few days.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2026-07-31","2026-08-11","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[8104,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Rahm Emanuel will not win any Democratic presidential primary in the 2028 cycle.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2028-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[6672,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will not escalate the Iran war into a ground operation to seize the Strait of Hormuz and pursue regime change","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[6134,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The $170 million that DHS diverted to World Cup security will be recovered and redirected to Coast Guard maritime domain awareness","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-27","2026-07-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5932,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's post-election efforts to challenge or interfere with the November 2026 midterm results will not succeed in changing any outcome","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5931,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","House Oversight Chairman James Comer will not pursue the requested investigation into Baron Trump's ties to the Tate brothers during the current Congress","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5930,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","No Democrat will be appointed by Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear to fill Mitch McConnell's Senate seat before the next elected senator is sworn in","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5463,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US and Iran will not reach a new negotiated agreement in the near term","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5462,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The late-July 2026 pause in US strikes on Iran will not hold and US bombing of Iran will resume","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2026-08-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5139,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The three DSA-aligned candidates who won the June 2026 New York City Democratic primaries will win their general elections in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[5138,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Syria will become militarily involved in the Israel-Hezbollah/Lebanon fighting despite US-brokered stabilization efforts","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-27","2026-07-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[4659,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Donald Trump will not appear again at a White House Correspondents' Association dinner after the July 2026 make-up dinner","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[4658,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","At the congressional hearing on Wednesday July 29, 2026, Anthony Fauci will evade rather than answer substantively, repeatedly saying he cannot recall (as James Comey did) instead of admitting he lied","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-07-27","2026-07-27","2026-07-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-27",1],[3402,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Republican Scott Singer will win Florida's 25th congressional district in the November 2026 general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-26","2026-07-26","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-26",1],[8103,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Democratic Socialists of America will have about 500,000 registered members by the end of 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[6860,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Rep. Thomas Massie will no longer be a member of Congress as of January 3, 2027","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[5137,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No amnesty or legalization program for illegal immigrants will be enacted","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[5136,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will fund the government with a continuing resolution that carries forward Biden/Pelosi-era spending levels and leads to an omnibus, rather than cutting spending","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[5135,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Dave Brat will be confirmed as US ambassador to Australia in roughly the first week of August 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-08-07","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[5133,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Section 219 of the NDAA (the US-Israel defense industrial base 'executive agent' merger provision) will not be allowed to stand - it will be stripped out or blocked","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[4430,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will rise above 7% shortly after July 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[4429,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US average retail gasoline price will reach $5 to $6 a gallon","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[4428,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Crude oil will reach $150 a barrel","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-25","2026-07-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[4426,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Barron Trump will be subpoenaed by Congress and sit for a deposition under oath","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-25","2026-07-25",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-25",1],[7528,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The AI market will bifurcate like the auto market: low-cost Chinese models will take the majority of volume while US frontier models remain premium and high-margin","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7527,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Anduril will be the marquee IPO of 2027","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7526,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The biggest show on television/streaming will be a 60-minute compilation of two- and three-minute short-form videos","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7525,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX stock is worth about $30 per share and will fall to roughly that level from ~$114","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7524,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Tesla stock will eventually trade 70 to 80 percent below its current level","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7523,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","More European countries will follow France and ban social media for children under 15/16","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7522,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","A ban on social media for children (under 15/16) will be enacted in the United States relatively soon","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[7520,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The next US president elected (in November 2028) will be a Democrat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[6514,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement announced by Trump will not come to fruition (will not be finalized/implemented)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[6132,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The teachers' unions will publicly oppose the Cruz-Schatz literacy bill conditioning federal reading funds on empirically proven reading methods (phonics/science of reading)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5925,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Save America Act will not be passed by Congress before the August 2026 congressional recess","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5461,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US government will ban the Chinese Kimi K3 AI model in the near term","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5459,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Crude oil will reach $100 a barrel on July 23, 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5458,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will pass the Russia sanctions bill with Iran sanctions added to it","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5457,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US is building toward, and will launch, a significantly larger military escalation against Iran beyond the current standoff air campaign","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-09-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5456,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump's air-campaign-only approach against Iran will fail to produce any gain for him (no Iranian capitulation and no better negotiating position)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5132,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran's competing elites - the clerical leadership and the Revolutionary Guard - will turn on each other","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[5129,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","A major U.S. military escalation against Iran will occur over the weekend of 25-26 July 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-07-27","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[4657,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The official autopsy in the Nolan Wells case will conclude his death was an accidental drowning","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-24","2026-07-24",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[4423,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US will begin a full-scale invasion of Iran, larger than the opening stages of Operation Epic Fury, within days of July 24, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-08-07","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[3611,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The July 23, 2026 Upper West Side stabbing will not be an isolated incident — further antisemitic attacks will follow in New York City","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-24","2026-07-24","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-24",1],[8102,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Pete Buttigieg will not become the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2028-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[6513,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The United States will end up at war with Saudi Arabia at some point down the line","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[5619,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The US will escalate its military campaign against Iran beyond the strikes ongoing as of late July 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[5127,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will get blown out in the November 2026 midterms because of the turnout/enthusiasm gap, and their fundraising advantage will not save them","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[5126,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Senate leadership under John Thune will block the SAVE America Act rather than let it pass","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[5124,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will invoke a national-security emergency / executive order on election security ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[5122,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jim Jordan's criminal referral of Jack Smith will be the first of multiple congressional criminal referrals of former Biden-era officials by the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[5121,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US/Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will not stop in the near term and the proposed 10-day interim ceasefire will not take effect (through ~mid-August 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-08-15","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4656,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will next rule that Title IX bars biological males from playing in girls'/women's sports","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4655,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The DSA-aligned left (Abdul El-Sayed) will not win the Michigan U.S. Senate seat in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4414,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Saudi Arabia will not join the Abraham Accords","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4413,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US stock markets will keep declining in the days and weeks after 2026-07-23","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4412,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not reach a deal with the Trump administration to end the war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4411,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's job approval rating will fall into the low 30s (from 34% in the latest Pew poll) in the coming months","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-09-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4410,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will further escalate the US military campaign against Iran in the weeks after 2026-07-23","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4409,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US interest rates, including mortgage rates and borrowing costs, will continue to rise from their late-July 2026 levels","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[4408,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The price of oil will escalate to $150 a barrel (from over $100 on 2026-07-23)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[3401,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Don Lemon will not run for president (2028 cycle)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[3400,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Daily Show will not be canceled in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-23","2026-07-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-23",1],[8101,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The joint U.S.-Saudi study under the new nuclear agreement will not determine that a uranium-enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia is warranted.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",1],[6859,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The New Jersey non-citizen voter registration case is the first thread: many additional ineligible voters improperly registered to vote will be uncovered elsewhere","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[6858,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","A large-scale kinetic conflict between the United States and China will occur within the next few years (by roughly 2031)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2031-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[6512,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The House will pass the National Defense Authorization Act, with Section 219 intact, in its floor vote on ~July 22, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[6130,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The NO FAKES Act will not reach the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[6129,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The App Store Accountability Act (app-store age-verification liability) will not pass the Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[5615,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Arizona CD-1 general election in November 2026 will be a very close race","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[5614,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Biggs will win the Arizona governor's race in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[5120,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass a continuing resolution running from the September 30, 2026 fiscal-year end through the end of the calendar year, followed by an omnibus spending bill","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[4403,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US crude oil reserve will be effectively empty within a few weeks (by roughly mid-August 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-22","2026-07-22","2026-08-15","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-22",2],[8100,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Trump administration will not block Andrew and Tristan Tate's extradition to the United Kingdom.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[7519,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Netflix stock will rise from its July 2026 52-week low rather than fall further","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[7518,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger will be completed despite the attorneys general challenge, possibly with concessions or a divestiture","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[7517,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The majority of new AI data centers will run off-grid, powered by their own natural gas generation","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[7516,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Chinese AI models will come to dominate AI markets worldwide, as Chinese EVs have outside the US","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[7515,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX stock will fall to around $70 before it ever reaches $280","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[7514,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Andrew Tate and Tristan Tate will be convicted and spend a substantial part of the rest of their lives in prison","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[6857,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Bill Maher will vote Republican in the 2028 presidential election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5924,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will heavily feature clips of far-left figures and 'abolish the police/borders/prisons' rhetoric in their messaging through the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5922,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will declare a national emergency in advance of the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5455,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested when he visits New York City in September 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-09-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5454,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Russia will ultimately win the war in Ukraine","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5453,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will not secure a decisive military victory over Iran in the current war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5452,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Israel will re-enter the Iran war with renewed large-scale strikes","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5451,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The proposed ten-day US-Iran ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz will not be agreed","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-08-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5119,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US federal deficit for fiscal year 2026 will come in between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5118,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Polling released within days of 2026-07-21 will show the MAGA base saying endless Middle East wars are not a priority","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-08-05","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5117,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Iranian regime will not be overthrown by an internal Persian uprising","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2027-07-21","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5115,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Hezbollah will not hand over its weapons without major fighting","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2027-07-21","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5114,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Houthis will follow through and block the Bab al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea / Suez shipping route","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[5113,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will still be actively engaged in kinetic military operations in the Middle East past the November 2026 midterms and deep into 2027","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2027-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[4654,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The audio recordings of Joe Biden's interviews with special counsel Robert Hur and his memoir ghostwriter will be publicly released","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[4653,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Joe Biden's further appeals of the D.C. Circuit ruling ordering release of his Robert Hur / ghostwriter interview audio (an en banc rehearing or a Supreme Court petition) will be denied","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[4397,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will soon be drawn down to the point where there is no usable crude left in it","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[4396,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Millions more Americans will lose their health coverage after the November 2026 midterms as the Republican budget law's provisions phase in","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[4395,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Canada will not capitulate to Trump's 50% tariffs; it will respond with further retaliation rather than seeking a deal on Trump's terms","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[4394,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not agree to a deal with the Trump administration in response to continued US bombing; it will keep retaliating instead","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[3399,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Texas voters will not elect Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas Senate race; Ken Paxton wins","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[3398,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Right before the November 2026 midterms, Van Jones will return to attacking Trump and Republicans on CNN and urge on-the-fence voters to vote Democrat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-21","2026-07-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-21",2],[6671,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of the US Senate in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[6669,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Haley Stevens will win the Michigan Democratic US Senate primary in early August 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-08-04","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[6668,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will pick up the North Carolina US Senate seat in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[6667,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will pick up the Maine US Senate seat, defeating Susan Collins in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[6666,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot will widen from its ~3-point July 2026 level over the final months before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[6664,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","US gasoline prices will rise roughly another 15 cents in the week following July 20, 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-07-27","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[6126,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Todd Blanche will be confirmed by the Senate as U.S. Attorney General, and quickly (within roughly two months of his mid-July 2026 confirmation hearing)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5921,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration's foreign grant money will go to organizations campaigning against foreign governments Trump dislikes and to media outlets aligned with candidates Trump supports abroad","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5920,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The U.S.-Iran war will not end by August 15, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-08-15","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5919,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win a blue-wave landslide in the November 2026 midterms, with Republicans suffering major losses","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5918,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will remain president for the next two years (through roughly mid-2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2028-07-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5613,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The suspect arrested for the incendiary device at the federal building in Lower Manhattan will turn out to be a radical left-wing / DSA / antifa-inspired actor","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-08-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5450,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The ICE officer who fatally shot a man in Biddeford, Maine will not be cleared in court - unlike most law-enforcement shooting cases, he will not get off","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5449,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US national average gasoline prices will stay at roughly $3.50 per gallon or higher for the rest of Trump's presidency (through January 2029), even if the Iran war ends","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2029-01-20","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5112,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The SAVE America Act will not be enacted and implemented in time to change how the November 2026 elections are run","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5111,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The House agriculture bill granting amnesty to non-citizen agricultural workers will not be enacted","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5110,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jay Clayton will be confirmed by the Senate as Director of National Intelligence","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5109,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5108,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","After the continuing resolution, Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill around the end-of-2026 holidays","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5107,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass a continuing resolution before September 30, 2026 covering funding from October 1 to the end of the year","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5106,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass a continuing resolution funding the government to the end of calendar 2026 with no cuts to federal spending","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[4388,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Crude oil will reach $100 a barrel within weeks of late July 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[3397,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Jordan Peterson will make a public return (resume public content/appearances) within roughly the next few months, i.e. by about October 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-10-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[3396,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New York City's budget gap will grow larger than its current roughly $12 billion","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2027-06-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[3395,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey will be the biggest (highest-grossing) movie of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-20","2026-07-20","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-20",2],[5917,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's prime-time speech on the evening of 2026-07-19 will be based on the false claim that he won the 2020 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-19","2026-07-19","2026-07-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-19",2],[4387,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not agree to a new nuclear deal/memorandum of understanding with the United States following Trump's escalation of the war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-19","2026-07-19",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-19",2],[4383,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US-Iran memorandum of understanding will not be restored or replaced anytime soon (not by the end of 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-19","2026-07-19","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-19",2],[4382,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","After the November 2026 midterms, millions more Americans will be kicked off Medicaid and lose their health insurance","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-19","2026-07-19","2027-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-19",2],[4381,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Crude oil prices will rise into the $90s per barrel amid the Iran war escalation","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-19","2026-07-19","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-19",2],[5105,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 will rise to about $2 trillion","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-18","2026-07-18","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-18",2],[8098,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Congress is unlikely to pass the SAVE America Act during the current Congress.","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7513,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Bret Taylor will be installed as CEO of OpenAI","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7512,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will acquire Sierra, Bret Taylor's AI startup","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7511,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey will substantially exceed box-office expectations","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7510,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","A third to half of currently announced/planned data centers will never be built","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7509,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","AI infrastructure players, specifically Nvidia, will show significant stock weakness in late 2026 and early 2027","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2027-03-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7508,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Anthropic's valuation will collapse from roughly $1 trillion to roughly $100 billion","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7507,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Sonos will be acquired","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7505,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Ken Griffin will run for president","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[7504,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Wisconsin district attorney will not bring criminal charges against Elon Musk over his million-dollar payments to voters","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6856,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The United States will be in a major war with China within the next few years (by roughly 2031)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2031-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6855,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump's call for Americans to demand Congress pass the SAVE America Act will accomplish nothing — the bill will not be enacted","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6854,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump's 2026-07-17 address to the nation will contain nothing substantive beyond already-known claims that China interfered in the 2020 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-07-18","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6510,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will not launch a military invasion of Cuba","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6509,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","After US forces suffer heavy casualties in the Iran war, Trump will pull US forces out / withdraw from the conflict","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6508,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will put ground troops on the ground around the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to control the Strait","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6507,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US and Iran will not reach a peace deal in the near term (through the end of 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6505,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The SAVE Act (proof-of-citizenship voting bill) will not make it through the Senate — it will be filibustered and fail to become law in this Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5915,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Marco Rubio will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5914,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","No one will ever be criminally charged over the 2020 election interference allegations Trump made in his July 16, 2026 address","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5912,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win the November 2026 midterm elections by large margins","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5611,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Chevalier, the DSA-backed candidate who defeated Rep. Dan Goldman in the New York Democratic primary, will be seated as a member of Congress","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5609,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Save America Act will not be implemented in time to affect the November 2026 midterm elections, even if it passes","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5102,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will declare a national security emergency over election security before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5101,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Zero blue states will voluntarily adopt voter ID in exchange for the proposed federal election-funding offer attached to the SAVE America Act","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[5100,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will not pass the SAVE America Act before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4652,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Someone will file a lawsuit against Brad Parscale and/or Yaal Yaakobi over the paid pro-Israel influencer campaign, producing discovery that reveals who was paying whom","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4372,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will pardon Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4371,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","U.S. inflation will rise again in the months after July 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4370,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S. and Iran will not return to a memorandum of understanding / negotiated de-escalation deal through the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4367,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran's next move will be striking critical infrastructure in neighboring Arab nations","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4366,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","U.S. gasoline prices will go back up to $4.00 a gallon","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4365,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S. will hit fuel shortages, with lines at gas stations, within the next few months","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[4364,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will escalate by shutting down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-17","2026-07-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[3601,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Save America Act will not pass Congress","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-17","2026-07-17","2027-01-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-17",2],[6853,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Argentina will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup final","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6852,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump's prime-time address will be a waste of time: he will accuse China of election interference and nothing will change (no consequential action follows)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6851,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will win the November 2026 midterm elections decisively (holding Congress)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6663,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Todd Blanche will be confirmed by the Senate as Attorney General","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6504,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US unemployment will reach 10% as a result of AI-driven workforce cuts","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6503,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The price of a barrel of oil will rise to $105","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6502,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Senate Democrats will not hold the line against the NDAA containing the US-Israel military merger provision (section 1217/219)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[5911,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","In his July 16, 2026 prime-time address Trump will call for or roll out action concerning the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[5910,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's July 16, 2026 prime-time address will be built on the false claim that he won the 2020 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[5608,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The United States will not send 100,000-150,000 ground troops into Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[5447,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US and Iran will reach another memorandum of understanding / ceasefire agreement pausing the Iran war","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[5098,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump's July 16, 2026 prime-time address will present revelations about foreign interference in the 2020 election and about the intelligence community","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[5097,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Trump administration will publicly release additional declassified 2020-election-related intelligence beyond what is presented in the July 16, 2026 prime-time address","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[4357,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[4356,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US national debt will reach $40 trillion","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[4353,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US national average retail gasoline price will reach $4.00 per gallon (rising from its mid-July 2026 level)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[4352,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","In his 2026-07-16 evening address, Trump will claim the 2020 election was invalid because China interfered in it","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[4351,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","In his 2026-07-16 evening address, Trump will claim that China created a bioweapon","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[4350,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran, working with the Houthis in Yemen, will shut down the Bab al-Mandab Strait to shipping within weeks of mid-July 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-16",2],[6850,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump's announced prime-time speech (Thursday, ~2026-07-16/17) will consist of him alleging the elections were fraudulent, and no concrete action (arrests, indictments, or enforceable orders) will follow from it","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-15","2026-07-15","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",2],[6849,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Justice Amy Coney Barrett will not resign from the Supreme Court","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-15","2026-07-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",2],[6500,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US unemployment will reach 12%","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-15","2026-07-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",2],[6499,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US unemployment will reach 10% as companies cut staff because of AI","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-15","2026-07-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",2],[5909,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","In his July 16, 2026 prime-time address Trump will announce serious voter-suppression measures","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-15","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",2],[3599,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Other states will follow New York in blocking construction of AI data centers","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-15","2026-07-15",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",3],[3598,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Kathy Hochul will win reelection as governor of New York in November 2026 — her Republican rival Bruce Blakeman will not prevail","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-15","2026-07-15","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",3],[3597,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will not use his July 16, 2026 address to make the case for finishing the war in Iran with an American victory","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-15","2026-07-15","2026-07-16","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-15",3],[8096,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Ro Khanna will not win the presidency in the presidential race he is positioning for.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2028-11-07","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[7502,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Paramount/David Ellison will not move Paramount's headquarters out of California or reallocate its planned $30 billion in spending away from the state","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[7501,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger will close despite the state attorneys general lawsuit","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[7500,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","OpenAI will replace Sam Altman as CEO","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[7499,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI's first commercial hardware device (the Jony Ive/io device) will never be released","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[6498,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The fallout from the renewed Iran war will eventually lead the United States to cut off its alliance with Israel entirely","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[6497,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not return to peace negotiations with the United States; the war continues with no new negotiated settlement","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[6496,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump and the Republican establishment will not back Nancy Mace to replace Lindsey Graham in the South Carolina Senate special election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5907,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will publicly challenge the legitimacy of the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5906,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's July 16, 2026 prime-time address will be about election security and will announce new measures restricting voting ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-07-16","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5905,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not resign in his prime-time address to the nation on Thursday, July 16, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-07-16","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5446,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Susan Collins will lose her Maine US Senate race in November 2026, regardless of who Democrats nominate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5445,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Democrat James Talarico will not win the 2026 Texas US Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5444,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not succeed in seizing control of or overriding the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5441,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will fall below its minimum operating level within the next week or two (by roughly the end of July 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5096,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will not pass the SAVE America Act in time to govern the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5095,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will fund the government with a continuing resolution rather than finishing the appropriations bills","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[5094,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 will total at least $1.8 trillion","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[4347,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Crude oil will spike from around $80 a barrel to $120-$150 a barrel within about a week (by late July 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-07-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[4343,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Continued US bombing will not make Iran capitulate and submit to US control of the Strait of Hormuz","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[4342,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US gasoline prices will go back up to $4.00 per gallon (by roughly August 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[4340,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Fed chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony on July 14, 2026 will strike a hawkish tone pointing toward raising interest rates","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-07-15","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[4338,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[4337,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US national average gasoline price will rise above $4.00 per gallon (by roughly August 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[3594,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The June 2026 drop in monthly inflation will prove temporary — inflation will rise again in the following months as oil prices climb back","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-09-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[3593,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","There will be no new negotiations for a replacement US-Iran memorandum of understanding","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-14","2026-07-14","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-14",3],[6662,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The risk premium for shipping oil through the Strait of Hormuz will not come down in the near future (through roughly September 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[6661,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The Russia sanctions bill Lindsey Graham had been pushing will not go anywhere after his death","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[6660,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Todd Blanche will be confirmed by the Senate rather than defeated","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[6659,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Sen. Lisa Murkowski will vote against confirming Todd Blanche","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[6658,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Nancy Mace will not be appointed to fill Lindsey Graham's U.S. Senate seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[6657,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","South Carolina's interim senator will be sworn into the Senate by Majority Leader John Thune on July 14, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-07-14","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[6656,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster will name an interim U.S. senator to replace the late Lindsey Graham on July 13, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5440,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Save America Act will not pass, because Republicans no longer have the Senate votes","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2027-01-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5439,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Justice Samuel Alito will not resign from the Supreme Court in the current Congress; any retirement will have to wait until the next one","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2027-01-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5438,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","No member of the South Carolina House delegation will get Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, because Republicans cannot afford to lose a House vote","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5437,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Nikki Haley will be the one to take Lindsey Graham's South Carolina US Senate seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5093,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass another continuing resolution to fund the government","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5092,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will not pass regular appropriations bills for the fiscal year beginning October 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5091,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 will reach roughly $2 trillion by the end of the fiscal year","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[5090,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Democratic Socialist candidates who won the 2026 Democratic primaries in New York will win their November 2026 general elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[4334,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will fall to or below its estimated minimum operating level very soon (within weeks of mid-July 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[4331,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump DOJ will not grant the New Mexico Attorney General's request for the unredacted Epstein files","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-07-13","2026-07-13",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[3592,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Congressional Democrats will not vote to give Trump authorization for the war against Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[3590,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","A Republican will win the special election for Lindsey Graham's South Carolina Senate seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[3394,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","No Senate Democrats will vote for the SAVE America Act; Republicans will only be able to pass it by simple majority","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[3390,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Josh Shapiro will not be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-13","2026-07-13","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-13",3],[4325,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh will raise interest rates in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-12","2026-07-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-12",3],[6848,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","U.S. home prices will crash on the scale of 2008, leaving essentially every mortgaged homeowner underwater","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[6847,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Social Security will become insolvent (unable to pay full scheduled benefits) by 2032","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2032-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[6495,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congressional Democrats will join Republicans in deregulating the crypto industry","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[6124,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","After the Supreme Court's Trump v. Slaughter ruling, the so-called independent commissions (FTC, FCC, FEC) will no longer be bipartisan — the out-party will hold no commissioner seats","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-07-11","2026-07-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[5089,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States and Iran will not reach a signed written agreement out of the Oman negotiations","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[5088,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not comply with Trump's close-of-business deadline by announcing it will drop fees/tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2026-07-13","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[5087,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 will exceed $2 trillion","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[5086,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will fund the government with another continuing resolution (CR), likely jammed through before the August 2026 recess","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[4322,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will not leave the White House/office at the end of his term","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[4321,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will pay the Proud Boys hundreds of millions of dollars over their dismissed case","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-11","2026-07-11",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[4320,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Proud Boys members whose seditious-conspiracy case was dismissed will file a lawsuit against the federal government seeking hundreds of millions of dollars","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-11","2026-07-11",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[4319,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Kash Patel will be fired as FBI director","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-11","2026-07-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-11",3],[7498,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Meta will roll back its Muse Image AI feature that opts public Instagram accounts in by default","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[7497,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Social media usage among young people will decline massively","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[7496,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","State attorneys general will file an antitrust lawsuit challenging Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[6655,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The bipartisan housing bill will become law without Trump's signature when the 10-day constitutional window expires at midnight on July 10, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-07-11","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[6653,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","JD Vance will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[6494,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The replacement Democratic nominee chosen by Maine Democrats will lose the Maine Senate race to Susan Collins in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[6123,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","All roughly 70 million U.S. children under 18 will be auto-enrolled in Trump accounts","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[6122,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trump accounts will hold trillions of dollars in invested assets","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[5602,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Judge Graff will not rule on probable cause from the bench on July 10, 2026; the case will wait until the September 1, 2026 hearing before Tyler Robinson enters a plea","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-09-01","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[5084,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not sign the memorandum of understanding / negotiated agreement with the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[5083,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass a continuing resolution rather than the regular appropriations bills to fund the government past September 30, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[5082,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal budget deficit will reach about $2 trillion for fiscal year 2026, ending September 30, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[5080,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will not launch a ground invasion of Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[5079,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will win the Maine U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[4651,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","A Utah jury will not be swayed by the defense's mitigation case for Tyler Robinson and will impose the death penalty","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[4650,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Judge Tony Graf will find probable cause and bind Tyler Robinson over for trial on the Charlie Kirk assassination charges","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[4317,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The bipartisan housing affordability bill Trump refuses to sign will become law anyway (without his signature)","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-07-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[4316,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will publicly claim Iran attacked US aircraft carriers and use that claim to justify invading/further attacking Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[4315,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will reimpose the naval blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-10","2026-07-10",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[4313,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hit emergency tank-bottom levels within 10 to 11 days (by ~July 21, 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-07-21","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[3589,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","JD Vance will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[3588,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Democrats will win control of at least one chamber of Congress in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[3389,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Spencer Pratt will not be elected mayor of Los Angeles in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-10","2026-07-10","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-10",3],[8095,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will not attack Israel during the current conflict.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[8094,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","John Ossoff will not become the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2028-12-31","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[8093,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Roy Cooper will win North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate election and flip the seat to Democrats.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[6652,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Donald Trump will not win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-10-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[6492,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not restrict international exports of US-produced oil and natural gas in order to hold down domestic prices","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[6491,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump's threat to end all trade with Spain will not actually result in a real end to US-Spain trade","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[6490,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will retain effective control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz (the US and its allies will not wrest control of the Strait from Iran)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5902,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Mitch McConnell will not return to serving in the US Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5436,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Within five years (by ~mid-2031), about two-thirds of the US population will live under mass property-tax freezes or eliminations","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2031-07-09","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5435,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","By 2028, roughly half the states in the Union will have enacted mass freezing and/or elimination of property tax","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5434,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Republican Mike Rogers will lose the Michigan US Senate race in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5433,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Whoever Maine Democrats pick to replace Graham Platner as their Senate nominee will be hit with Republican negative ads essentially the day they are announced","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-08-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5432,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US will not seize or take over Kharg Island from Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5431,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States will not launch a ground invasion of Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5077,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will be a federal government shutdown in the fall of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5076,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will fund the government with a continuing resolution rather than passing the regular appropriations bills when it returns from recess in September 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[5074,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republican Susan Collins will hold the Maine U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4649,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tyler Robinson will be convicted in the killing of Charlie Kirk","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4648,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tyler Robinson's expressed remorse will not save him from execution — he will be sentenced to death for Charlie Kirk's murder","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4311,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Robert Garcia will become chair of the House Oversight Committee in the Congress seated after the November 2026 midterms (i.e., Democrats win the House)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2027-01-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4310,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US interest rates will be increased rather than cut (the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate) in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4309,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump does not have the votes in the US Senate to pass the $350 billion defense reconciliation package with the SAVE America Act, and it will not pass the Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4308,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The House of Representatives will not pass Trump's reconciliation 3.0 package containing $350 billion for defense plus the SAVE America Act","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[4302,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US air campaign will not force Iran to submit or capitulate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[3388,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Troy Jackson will replace Graham Plattner as the Democratic nominee in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-09","2026-07-09","2026-07-27","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[3387,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Graham Plattner will never again be heard from in politics (will not run for or hold elected office again)","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-09","2026-07-09",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-09",3],[8091,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Graham Platner will not formally withdraw from the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[8090,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz shortly before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[6489,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will approve the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-08","2026-07-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[6488,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Graham Platner will drop out of the 2026 Maine Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[6121,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Maine Democrats will choose Governor Janet Mills as Graham Platner's replacement U.S. Senate nominee","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[6120,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Bernie Sanders will not apologize for having promoted and backed Graham Platner","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-08","2026-07-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[6118,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Maine Democrats will replace Graham Platner on the November 2026 Senate ballot with another nominee","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[6117,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Graham Platner will drop out of the Maine U.S. Senate race before July 13, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-07-13","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[5429,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Graham Platner will drop out of the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[4647,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Lance Twiggs' recorded testimony, when played in the Tyler Robinson preliminary hearing (July 2026), will implicate Robinson as Charlie Kirk's killer and describe Robinson's confession to him","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2026-07-10","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[3386,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will take concrete action to bring Greenland under U.S. control before leaving office in January 2029","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-07-08","2026-07-08","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-08",3],[8088,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","A reasonable-doubt defense advanced for Tyler Robinson will not succeed in the Charlie Kirk murder case.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07",null,"2026-08-11",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",3],[7495,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","A movie/film of the Taylor Swift wedding will be released","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",3],[5900,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Graham Plattner will step down as the Democratic Senate nominee in Maine","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-13","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",3],[5599,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The state's compilation surveillance video showing Tyler Robinson on the UVU campus will be admitted into evidence at the preliminary hearing when court resumes on July 7, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",3],[5072,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The judge will not rule at the end of the week but will take the weekend and issue his preliminary-hearing ruling the following week, on or after Monday July 13, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-17","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",3],[5071,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Tyler Robinson preliminary hearing will not be completed by Friday, July 10, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-10","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[5070,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Tyler Robinson preliminary/evidentiary hearing in the Charlie Kirk assassination case will run the entire week of July 6-10, 2026, not conclude sooner","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-10","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4646,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tyler Robinson will be found guilty in the Charlie Kirk murder case; his defense will not win an acquittal","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4288,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not enter another deal with the Trump administration after the MOU's collapse","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4287,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States is heading into a recession","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4286,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US stock markets will crash following the July 7, 2026 US strikes on Iran","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4285,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will keep rising in the months after July 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4284,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US retail gasoline prices will rise sharply following the July 7, 2026 US strikes on Iran","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4283,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil will trade at $90-$100 per barrel within weeks of July 7, 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4282,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will strike targets in the United Arab Emirates","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4281,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will strike the US air base in Saudi Arabia","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4280,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will strike targets in Qatar in retaliation for the July 7, 2026 US strikes","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4278,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will strike US-linked targets in Bahrain in retaliation for the July 7, 2026 US strikes","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4277,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will launch new US military strikes on Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-14","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4276,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will shut down the Strait of Hormuz within weeks of July 7, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[4275,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 will not produce anything durable","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[3585,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Graham Plattner will drop out of the Maine US Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-07","2026-07-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-07",4],[6651,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","At the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, Trump will publicly press allies over defense spending and complain about their lack of support in the Iran war","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2026-07-07","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[6650,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Haley Stevens will defeat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary in August 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[6114,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chuck Schumer will not run for reelection to his New York Senate seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[5899,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Mitch McConnell will not return to serving as a US Senator in the near term (through the end of 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[5897,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","No one will go to prison over the alleged wire fraud / donor-diversion in Trump's America 250 / Freedom 250 fundraising","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-06","2026-07-06",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[5069,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will lose the Georgia U.S. Senate race in the November 2026 midterms, by roughly three to four points","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[4645,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tyler Robinson will be bound over for trial at the conclusion of his July 2026 preliminary hearing in the Charlie Kirk assassination case","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[4273,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Republicans, under Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership, will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-06","2026-07-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-06",4],[4272,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will continue to escalate militarily against Iran rather than de-escalate after the July 2026 ceasefire/MOU","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-05","2026-07-05",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-05",4],[4271,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will keep trying to open the Omani corridor through the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, in violation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that gives Iran and the Arab nations control over transit","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-05","2026-07-05",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-05",4],[6111,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","No Minnesota state prosecutor will bring criminal charges against the senior Minnesota Democratic officials responsible for the fraud cover-up","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-04","2026-07-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-04",4],[6110,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Whistleblowers who were retaliated against in the Minnesota social-services fraud scandal will file civil lawsuits seeking compensation","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-04","2026-07-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-04",4],[5068,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Dave Brat will be confirmed as U.S. ambassador to Australia, with his Senate confirmation coming up around the end of July 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-04","2026-07-04","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-04",4],[7493,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Nikki Haley will never win another election - she will not win the Republican presidential nomination","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2028-11-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[7492,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Justice Samuel Alito will retire from the Supreme Court before the end of Trump's term","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[7491,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Trump's adult children will eventually be prosecuted over their business and influence dealings","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-07-03","2026-07-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[7490,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US government will bail out AI companies - one of the biggest bailouts in recent history","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[7489,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","A basket of the AI-exposed stocks named (Nvidia, Astera Labs, Marvell, Vertiv, Super Micro, CoreWeave, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) will fall 20-40% within 12 months","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2027-07-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[6649,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","France will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2026-07-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[6487,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Representative Tom Kean Jr.'s Mental Health Parity Enforcement and Funding Act will not pass","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[6486,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Senator John Fetterman will vote in favor of the Iran war supplemental funding package","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[6485,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congress will approve the White House's supplemental war funding request of roughly $87.6 billion for the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[5428,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Republican nominee for Colorado governor will lose to the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[5427,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary on August 4, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2026-08-04","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[5067,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Zohran Mamdani will not run for President of the United States in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2028-11-07","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[4262,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Asbestos exposure from the demolition of the White House East Wing will become a major public story, with people in the surrounding area developing serious asbestos-related health problems, within 5 to 15 years (by roughly 2031-2041)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-07-03","2026-07-03","2036-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-03",4],[8087,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Tucker Carlson will not create the third political party he says he intends to build before the 2028 general election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[6845,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","The United States men's national team will win the 2026 World Cup","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-07-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[6648,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The United States and Iran will exchange military strikes again over the July 4th 2026 holiday weekend","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-07-06","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[6484,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Kamala Harris will run for president in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[5896,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be additional heat-driven power blackouts in the US on July 2-3, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-07-04","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[5895,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be numerous medical emergencies among attendees at Trump's July 4, 2026 speech/event in Washington DC because of the extreme heat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-07-05","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[5066,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Dave Brat will be confirmed by the Senate as a U.S. ambassador very shortly (by roughly the end of August 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[5065,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Information alleging Venezuelan and Chinese interference in the 2020 U.S. election will be publicly released","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[5064,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Dave Brat's Senate confirmation vote as ambassador will not come up until the end of July 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[5062,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","A Democratic Socialist-aligned insurgent candidate will win the Democratic primary in Michigan in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[4644,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","uncertain","Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's marriage will not last (they will divorce or separate)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[4260,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump officials and allied media will blame Democratic/'communist' vandals for the stage collapse at the Great American State Fair","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-07-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[4259,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's social media company (Trump Media) will report massive paper losses on its Bitcoin holdings in its next quarterly report","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[3383,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico will not win the Texas U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-02","2026-07-02","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-02",4],[6483,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israeli settlers in the West Bank will arm the government-provided drones and use them to attack and kill Palestinian civilians","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[6482,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will suffer a major economic collapse/recession, driven by the Iran war and/or the bursting of the AI investment bubble","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[6481,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congress will pass the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act containing the US-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative provision (section 219, formerly 224)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[6480,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Rashida Tlaib's war powers resolution regarding Lebanon will be blocked and will not advance","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[6109,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The 27 state laws barring biological males from girls'/women's sports will not be struck down in litigation following West Virginia v. B.P.J.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[6108,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Following Trump v. Slaughter, the so-called independent commissions (FTC, SEC, FEC) will no longer have commissioners from the party out of power - presidents will staff them only with their own party's appointees","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[5893,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","A constitutional amendment ending birthright citizenship will not be approved by two-thirds of the House and Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[5892,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Republican (Ken Paxton) will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race over James Talarico","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[5891,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Republican (Susan Collins) will win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race over Graham Platner","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[5061,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Dave Brat will be confirmed by the Senate as a U.S. ambassador within about a month (by roughly early August 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-08-05","2026-07-30","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[4642,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","uncertain","Jussie Smollett will be given another mainstream entertainment opportunity — picked up by a TV show or movie producer","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[4641,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","NPR's Nina Totenberg will not be fired or forced out over her erroneous report that Justice Alito was retiring","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[4640,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Justice Samuel Alito will be the next Supreme Court justice to leave the Court","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-07-01","2026-07-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[3582,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","At least five new DSA-aligned members will be elected to the US House in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[3579,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The DSA-aligned Democratic nominees in the Brooklyn-area House districts will win their seats in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-07-01","2026-07-01","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-07-01",4],[7488,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Trump's SAVE America Act (photo-ID voting bill) will not pass Congress","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2027-01-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[7487,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will massively decrease its spending and capex commitments within six months (by the end of 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[7486,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","A major drawdown in AI valuations will occur within the next 12 months","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[7485,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Anthropic will proceed with its IPO rather than delaying it like OpenAI","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[6844,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","California voters will reject the November 2026 ballot measure imposing a photo-ID requirement for voting","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[6843,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The SAVE Act will not be enacted into law","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[6842,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court's birthright-citizenship ruling (expected 2026-07-01) will uphold birthright citizenship for children born on US soil to foreign nationals","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-07-01","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[6478,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will start endorsing primary challengers running against sitting Democratic incumbents going forward","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[6477,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The United States will end its military base presence in the Gulf states (e.g. Bahrain, Kuwait) following Iranian strikes on those bases","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5890,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will post an angry Truth Social tirade in reaction to the E. Jean Carroll payout","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5889,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Supreme Court's refusal to hear Trump's E. Jean Carroll appeal will not reduce Trump's support among his voters","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5888,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","E. Jean Carroll will receive the $5 million judgment from Trump after the Supreme Court declined his appeal","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5887,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will not succeed in building the support needed for a constitutional amendment ending birthright citizenship","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5424,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The AI investment boom is a bubble and it will crash","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5423,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration in the birthright citizenship case, upholding birthright citizenship","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5059,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Dramatic evidence of foreign interference in the 2020 election will be publicly revealed by the Pulte/Solomon task force in roughly the week of July 6, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-07-13","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[5058,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Pulte/ODNI declassification task force will publicly release revelations about the 2020 presidential election having been stolen","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[4639,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Justice Samuel Alito will step down from the Supreme Court in the not-too-distant future","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[4638,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Rather than accept the Supreme Court's birthright-citizenship ruling, President Trump will pursue another route to narrow birthright citizenship (e.g., restricting entry/visas for pregnant foreign nationals)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[3382,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Conservatives and Republicans will not respond to the Supreme Court's June 30, 2026 birthright-citizenship ruling with calls to pack or delegitimize the Court; they will instead just argue the decision was wrong","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2026-07-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[3381,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Gavin Newsom will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[3379,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Mamdani's New York City administration will move to seize property from private landlords","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-30","2026-06-30",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-30",4],[8085,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Melat Kiros will defeat incumbent Diana DeGette in the 2026 Democratic primary for her Colorado U.S. House seat.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5883,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The number of Republicans insisting the 2020 election was stolen will decline once Trump is out of office","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2029-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5882,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not apologize to Republicans for pushing the unproven claim that the 2020 election was stolen","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5595,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court's birthright-citizenship ruling will be a narrow, statute-based ruling that leaves the question to Congress rather than resolving the Fourteenth Amendment question","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5594,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court's birthright-citizenship ruling, expected June 30 2026, will not go in favor of the Trump administration / conservative position","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5422,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Chris Rabb will be elected to the U.S. House from Philadelphia in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5421,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","2026 will set a new record for the warmest year in the global temperature record","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2027-01-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[5057,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration on birthright citizenship within the next day or two (by ~1 July 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-07-01","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[4637,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Haitians whose Temporary Protected Status was revoked will not be allowed to remain in the United States; the Trump administration will not give them a path to stay","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-29","2026-06-29",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[4636,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration on birthright citizenship, striking down the executive order limiting it","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[4635,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will rule in favor of states banning so-called transgender (biological male) athletes from girls' sports, upholding the Idaho and West Virginia laws","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[3578,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","American military assistance to Israel will be fully phased out over the next two or three years, with none left (by ~2029)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-29","2026-06-29","2029-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-29",4],[4248,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Daily vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz will fall back to pre-MOU levels of roughly 5 to 10 ships per day","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-28","2026-06-28","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-28",4],[4247,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will be dragged back into a full shooting war with Iran, with the memorandum of understanding ceasefire collapsing into sustained hostilities","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-28","2026-06-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-28",4],[4246,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz again in the near term (within roughly two months of late June 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-28","2026-06-28","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-28",4],[6105,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Federal judge Sparkle Sooknanan's ruling barring the federal government from using the revamped SAVE citizenship-verification database will be reversed on appeal (by the D.C. Circuit or, failing that, the U.S. Supreme Court)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-27","2026-06-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-27",4],[5054,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The $88 billion Middle East war supplemental will not be the end of it — Congress will be asked for additional war funding beyond that first request","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-27","2026-06-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-27",4],[4244,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Rubio-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework will lead to further violations of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and additional military attacks","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-27","2026-06-27",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-27",4],[4243,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US and Iran will not conclude a final agreement under the memorandum of understanding within the current 60-day cycle (by roughly late August 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-27","2026-06-27","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-27",4],[4242,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will not commit US ground forces to the war with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-27","2026-06-27","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-27",4],[7483,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Social media use will decline precipitously, especially among young people","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[7482,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Bluesky will fail - it will slowly die off","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[7481,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Bending Spoons will have the largest first-day pop of any internet/tech IPO of the month, bigger than SpaceX's","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-07-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[7479,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","World Cup betting volumes will push Polymarket and Kalshi toward going public, with major banks ready to take them to IPO","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[6839,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court in Watson v. RNC will rule that no jurisdiction may count ballots received after election day","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[6838,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","US home values, especially in suburbs and small towns, will collapse to essentially nothing within 10 to 15 years (by roughly 2036-2041) because of population collapse and deflation","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2041-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[6476,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Susan Collins will lose her Maine Senate seat in the November 2026 election and will not return to the Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5881,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not change the Constitution to allow himself to run for president again","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5880,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump and Republicans will formally attempt to challenge or refuse to certify California's 2026 election results","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2027-01-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5878,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not be installed as president indefinitely as a result of Republican challenges to California's election results","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5877,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","More damaging allegations/dirt about Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will come out before the November 2026 election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5876,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's defamation lawsuit against the BBC will be dropped rather than proceed through discovery","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5052,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will hold their U.S. House majority in the November 2026 midterms, by a narrow margin of a seat or two","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5051,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Supreme Court will issue its election-law decisions (including the mail-in ballot case) on Monday, June 29, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-06-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",4],[5050,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will hold their U.S. House majority in the November 2026 midterms (they will not lose the 20-30 seats being forecast)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[5049,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Supreme Court will issue its mail-in ballot / election-law ruling on Friday, June 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[5048,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Supreme Court will issue its birthright citizenship ruling on Friday, June 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[4633,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","White people will become a minority of the United States population within about the next 15 years (by roughly 2041)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2041-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[4238,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will not sign the bipartisan housing affordability bill passed by veto-proof majorities","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2026-07-10","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[4237,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates several times rather than cut them","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[4236,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","PCE inflation, currently 4.1% year over year, will rise to 5% or 6% by mid-2027","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2027-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[3577,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Hakeem Jeffries will become Speaker of the House following the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-26","2026-06-26","2027-01-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-26",5],[8081,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Graham Platner will win Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-06-26",5],[8080,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-06-26",5],[6837,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The DSA-backed candidate who won the June 2026 Democratic primary in New York's 13th district (defeating Adriano Espaillat) will win the November 2026 general election and be seated in Congress on January 3, 2027","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[6647,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Save America Act will not be enacted into law before the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[6475,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Israel will not succeed in toppling the Iranian regime or turning Iran into a failed state","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[6474,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Transit through the Strait of Hormuz will not be toll-free in the near term; Iran (with Oman) will impose transit fees/tolls on shipping through the Strait","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[6473,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The United States and Iran will not reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near term (by the end of 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[5875,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The White House will publicly deny the Haberman/Swan book reporting that Trump's own aides say he is declining","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[5874,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Save America Act (Trump's voter-ID/election bill) will not pass the House and Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[5593,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will hand down its birthright-citizenship decision within roughly the next two weeks (by about July 10, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-07-10","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[5420,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Senate Republicans will not eliminate the legislative filibuster (including to pass Trump's Save America Act)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[5047,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal income tax will not be abolished in the foreseeable future - Americans will still owe and have to file federal income taxes","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[5046,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Supreme Court will hand down its birthright citizenship decision on Friday, June 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-06-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[4632,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Democratic Socialist Daria Chevalier will win the November 2026 general election for her New York City congressional seat and take office in Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[4234,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Republicans under Trump will lose the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[4233,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war normal, with Iran retaining control of passage, through the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[4231,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will repeatedly and frequently strike vessels that transit the Strait of Hormuz via the Omani route without IRGC coordination","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[4229,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump DOJ will fight (rather than comply with) Judge Emmet Sullivan's preliminary injunction ordering further release of the Epstein files in Katie Phang's Epstein Transparency Act lawsuit","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[3575,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Republicans will hold the Senate in the November 2026 elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[3573,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Republicans will lose the November 2026 midterms (Democrats take the House)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[3378,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will not endorse a candidate early in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, leaving the field open for a contested convention","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[3377,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon for at least the next two and a half years (i.e., not before roughly the end of 2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-25","2026-06-25","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-25",5],[6836,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Claire Valdez, the DSA-backed winner of the New York 7th district Democratic primary, will win the November 2026 general election and enter Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6646,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","National Republicans will pull their spending out of the Georgia and North Carolina Senate races, giving up on both, before the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6472,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","People will not be paying to live on Mars or Saturn within our lifetimes","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2070-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6471,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","SpaceX's share price will fall sharply from its post-IPO highs, causing retail, 401(k) and pension investors to lose money","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6103,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The federal district court ruling barring the Trump administration from using the revamped SAVE database for election/citizenship verification will be reversed on appeal","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6102,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Andy Beshear will not be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6101,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Josh Shapiro will not be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6100,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Andy Beshear will run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6099,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Josh Shapiro will run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6098,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Within roughly two years (by about 2028), no Democrats in Congress will accept AIPAC money","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6097,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Zohran Mamdani will defeat Chuck Schumer for the New York U.S. Senate seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6096,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Zohran Mamdani will run against Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate seat in New York","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[6095,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[5591,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Kyle Schwarber will be named the backup (reserve) designated hitter, not the starter, for the 2026 MLB All-Star Game","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[5590,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The DSA-backed Palestinian Muslim woman who won the June 2026 Democratic primary for a New York State Senate seat (rendered 'Amber Quass' in the transcript) will win that seat in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[5045,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Control of the U.S. House after the November 2026 midterms will be decided by a margin of only a seat or two, whichever party wins","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[4631,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The SAVE America Act (voter documentary-proof-of-citizenship / voter ID bill) will not pass Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[4630,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Democratic Socialist Daria Chevalier will win the November 2026 general election in New York's 13th congressional district (the district will not elect a Republican)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[4226,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","For the next two years (through mid-2028) the Iran conflict will repeat a recurring roughly 30-90 day cycle in which Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and a new crisis-and-deal round follows","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[3572,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Donald Trump will not be president on January 21, 2029","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2029-01-21","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[3570,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","JD Vance will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[3569,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be a DSA-style figure of the socialist left, not a middle-of-the-road governor","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[3568,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","All three Mamdani-backed DSA candidates who won the June 2026 New York primaries (Lander, Chevalier, Valdez) will win their seats in Congress in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[3375,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Anthony Fauci will face no legal consequences from Rand Paul's subpoena and Senate investigation","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-24","2026-06-24",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-24",5],[7478,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Amazon will outperform the other mega-cap tech stocks discussed (Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Meta, SpaceX)","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[7477,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","One in two Americans will eventually be taking a GLP-1 drug (up from one in eight in mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[7476,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","GLP-1 drugmakers will outperform","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[7475,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Second-tier ('secondary') AI companies' stocks will fall","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[7473,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Iran will develop a nuclear weapon following the 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[7472,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","JD Vance's presidential run will be very short-lived - he will not win the Republican presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[7471,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US will not carry out the military operation (carrier strike forces plus paratroopers and Marines on Iranian soil) needed to force the Strait of Hormuz open","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[6835,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Anti-Trump activists will throw dead animals into the National Mall reflecting pool and claim the animals died from the pool/its treatment","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[6834,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tucker Carlson and Joy Reid will appear on a show together bashing Israel by the end of July 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[6645,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Dan Goldman will lose the June 23, 2026 New York Democratic primary to Brad Lander","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[6470,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will never leave southern Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[6469,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Active military hostilities in the US-Iran war will resume after the memorandum of understanding","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5873,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Tucker Carlson will end up publicly supporting Republican candidates in the 2026 or 2028 elections despite saying he is out of the Republican Party","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5589,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","England will fail to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-07-19","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5419,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration in two of the three pending key rulings (birthright citizenship plus two hiring/firing-power cases)","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5418,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Tucker Carlson will not run for president (2028 cycle)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5043,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not live up to the terms of the June 2026 agreement/memorandum of understanding it signed with the United States","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5042,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Elon Musk will merge SpaceX with Tesla","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[5041,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Minnesota federal district judge's order quashing the Trump administration's grand jury subpoenas to Minnesota state and local officials (including Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey) will be reversed on appeal","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4629,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Karmelo Anthony's appeal of his Texas murder conviction will fail (the conviction will be upheld)","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4225,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will earn $3-5 billion per day from oil and petrochemical exports under the new US sanctions waiver","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4224,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Strait of Hormuz will be closed again after reopening under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4223,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US and Iran will return to war after the June 2026 memorandum of understanding","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4222,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's job approval rating will fall into the 20s (below 30%) by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4221,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US Producer Price Index inflation will climb into the 7% range by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4220,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US annual CPI inflation will climb into the 5% range by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4219,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will reach 10-12% or higher by the end of Trump's term (January 2029)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4218,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least two times (instead of cutting) to rein in surging inflation","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4217,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Andy Burnham will become the next leader of the UK Labour Party, succeeding Keir Starmer","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-09-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[4214,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US and Iran will not complete a full final deal at the end of the current 60-day period (~August 21, 2026); the talks will instead be rolled over into another 60-day extension","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-23","2026-06-23","2026-08-21","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[3373,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Trump administration will surge ICE enforcement into New York City","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-06-23","2026-06-23",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-23",5],[6644,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The UK will go through yet another prime-ministerial turnover after Keir Starmer's successor — six prime ministers in 12 years, i.e. by roughly 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[5417,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US-Iran process will NOT go smoothly through the 60-day period — a completed deal with Iranian sanctions relief, an open Strait of Hormuz and oil flowing normally will not be in place by roughly late August 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2026-08-21","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[5416,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","China will restart/increase its crude oil imports within the next month or two (by roughly late August 2026) after having cut them roughly in half during the Iran war","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2026-08-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[5040,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Syria will become drawn into the Israel-Hezbollah fighting","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[5039,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will hand Iran $6 billion in cash under the announced deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[4628,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Kamala Harris will not become President of the United States","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2028-11-07","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[3567,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","No final US-Iran deal will be signed at the end of the 60-day negotiating window (~mid-August 2026); the talks will just be extended by another 60 days","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2026-08-18","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[3566,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Israel will destroy the Iranian-built underground drone/missile facility inside a mountain in southern Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-22","2026-06-22",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[3372,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons during the remainder of Trump's term (through January 2029)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-22","2026-06-22","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-22",5],[6094,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Rick Jackson will win the November 2026 Georgia governor's race, keeping the governorship Republican","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-20","2026-06-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-20",5],[5037,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will hold the U.S. House majority in the November 2026 midterms, by roughly one or two seats","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-20","2026-06-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-20",5],[5036,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Democratic-socialist candidate who won the Washington, D.C. Democratic mayoral primary will win the November 2026 D.C. mayoral general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-20","2026-06-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-20",5],[8078,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding will fall apart rather than become the framework for a permanent deal.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[7469,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Retail investors in SpaceX will be left holding losses - SpaceX stock will fall materially after a few quarterly earnings reports","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[7468,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","An activist investor will buy 5-10% of Snap and push the company to shut down or spin off its Specs/hardware division","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[7467,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Snap will cease to be an independent company","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[7466,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","JD Vance will not become president","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2028-11-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[7465,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US-Iran memorandum of understanding will not become a legally enforceable agreement","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[6833,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule that ballots cannot be sent out before Election Day and cannot be collected after Election Day","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[6643,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","James Talarico's 2020 'white skin gives me and every white American immunity from the virus' remark will be used in TV ads in Texas in the fall 2026 campaign","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[6468,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump and the Republicans will gain significant popularity from standing up to Israel and ending the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[6466,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will strike Lebanon hard enough to provoke a direct military response from Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[6089,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The U.S. Senate will pass Ted Cruz's college sports (NIL) bill with a large bipartisan vote","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[5033,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Bill Pulte and John Solomon will obtain and publicly release records purporting to show the 2020 election was stolen","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[4200,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US taxpayer dollars will end up directly paying for part of the $300 billion Iran reconstruction fund, contrary to Trump's claim that no taxpayer money is involved","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[3564,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Iran will keep reneging on and stalling the memorandum of understanding rather than implementing it","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2026-08-18","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[3563,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The US arrangement giving Israel ~$3 billion a year in military equipment will be gone within three or four years (by ~2030)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-19","2026-06-19","2030-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-19",5],[8077,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding will not become a full agreement.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6832,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","A US executive-branch official (president, cabinet member, Joint Chiefs or federal agency) will publicly state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before January 20, 2029","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6831,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The United States will not be in a kinetic war with China in 2029","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2029-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6830,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The just-signed US-Iran deal will not hold - by about Friday June 19, 2026 Israel will strike Lebanon again and Iran will fire missiles back","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-06-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6642,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The US will not resume military strikes on Iran — the war is over rather than restarting when the 60-day MOU negotiating window ends (~mid-August 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-08-17","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6465,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not follow through with a real, lasting peace deal with Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6464,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will publicly clash with new Fed chair Kevin Walsh over the Fed's refusal to cut interest rates","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6463,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates for the remainder of calendar year 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6462,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will charge a toll or fee on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz even after it reopens","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6461,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Senate provision withholding 75% of the Defense Secretary's travel budget until Congress receives documentation on the Caribbean boat strikes and the Iran school bombing will not become law","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2027-01-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[6460,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Israel will continue military strikes on Lebanon despite the US-Iran memorandum of understanding","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[5869,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The United States will not succeed in eliminating Iran's ballistic missile capability as a result of the 2026 Iran war and the resulting agreement","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[5415,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US gasoline prices will decline after the end of the Iran war but will not return to their pre-war level","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2027-06-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[4627,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tyra Banks's defamation lawsuit against Netflix over its America's Next Top Model documentary will end in a settlement","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[4626,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Iran will end up with hundreds of billions of dollars it did not have before as a result of the 2026 US-Iran agreement","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[4625,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Trump will not resume the US bombing campaign against Iran despite saying he will","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",5],[4199,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding will not prove durable - it will break down rather than hold","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",6],[4198,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Algae will return to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and spread quickly despite the Interior Department's June 2026 nano-bubbler/hydrogen-peroxide treatment","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-09-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",6],[3560,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will publicly turn against Benjamin Netanyahu within 30 days (by ~mid-July 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2026-07-18","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",6],[3371,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The $300 billion Iran reconstruction package will be funded by a mix of US money and Gulf state money, not by one side alone","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-18","2026-06-18",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",6],[3370,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will not hand the 2028 Republican presidential nomination to JD Vance; he will push for a contested convention","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-18","2026-06-18","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-18",6],[8076,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States and Iran will not reach a long-lasting nuclear agreement before December 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-12-01","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[6459,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Iranian government (Islamic Republic/IRGC) will not collapse or be replaced","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[6458,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will act to wreck the US-Iran peace deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[6457,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and then renege, returning the US to military conflict with Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[6088,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Republican Rick Jackson will win the Georgia governor's race in the November 2026 general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5867,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Iran war will not produce a rally-around-the-flag benefit for Republicans; voters will punish the Republican Party in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5866,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not resume bombing Iran after the 60-day negotiating window ends (~August 19, 2026) ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5030,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US-Iran agreement (MOU) will be signed on Thursday, June 18, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-06-18","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5028,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Bill Pulte will show up at DNI on Friday, June 19, 2026 and serve as acting DNI director for at least a couple of months","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5026,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Bill Pulte will start at DNI on Friday, June 19, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-06-19","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5024,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Bill Pulte will go in as acting Director of National Intelligence and serve in the role for at least three to four months","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-10-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[5022,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jay Clayton will be installed as Director of National Intelligence in the week following June 17, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-06-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[4624,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","An isolationist/anti-interventionist 'third lane' candidate (of the Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Kent, or Tucker Carlson type) will run for president in 2028, most likely inside the Republican primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[4623,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Scott Wiener will win Nancy Pelosi's old California congressional seat in the November 2026 election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[3559,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Netanyahu will not agree to the US-Iran memorandum of understanding's point one requiring an immediate and permanent end to Israeli hostilities including in Lebanon","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2026-06-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[3367,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon while Donald Trump is president (through January 2029)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[3366,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will substantially abide by the US-Iran agreement for the remainder of Trump's term (through January 2029)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-17","2026-06-17","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-17",6],[8075,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current 60-day U.S.-Iran negotiations will not produce a long-term agreement.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[7464,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The Trump administration will impose restrictions on Chinese open-weight AI models entering the US","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[7463,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The space/space-tech sector, including SpaceX, will suffer a serious drawdown (short of a collapse) once two or three quarterly earnings reports force companies to justify their valuations","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[7462,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The merged Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery will have to make enormous cost cuts (large-scale layoffs) to service its debt","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[7461,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The Paramount Skydance acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery will be completed despite state attorney general and European reviews","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[7460,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Scotland will beat either Morocco or Brazil at the 2026 World Cup","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[6829,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Iran ceasefire/deal will collapse within days - Iran will resume bombing by about mid-week (roughly June 17, 2026) and Trump will declare the deal off","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-06-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[6456,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Israel will resume heavy bombing of Lebanon despite the US-Iran memorandum of understanding","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[6455,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and will not cede management of it to the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[6452,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not cut off US funding and weapons to Israel to force an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5414,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Within about five years (by roughly 2031), Iran will have a larger GDP than Israel","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2031-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5413,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The November 2026 midterms will be an even bigger wave for Democrats than the 2018 midterms were","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5411,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5410,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US national average gasoline prices will fall from about $4.00 a gallon and normalize around $3.50 a gallon following the end of the Iran war (by end of 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5021,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jim Caviezel will receive an Academy Award nomination for his performance in the film 'Dark Horse'","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2027-01-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5020,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The SAVE America Act will not be passed by Congress before the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5019,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence in the week of June 22-26, 2026, waiving normal Senate process","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16","2026-06-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[4622,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nick Reiner, accused of killing his parents Rob and Michele Reiner, will not be granted pretrial release and will remain in custody","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[4190,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US military will carry out more strikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela and in the Pacific","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[4189,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will ramp up talk of invading Cuba","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[4188,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump-Iran memorandum of understanding will fall apart","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-16","2026-06-16",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[4187,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Algae will return to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool despite the Trump administration's hydrogen peroxide treatment and blue paint","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-16","2026-06-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-16",6],[5585,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will progressively reopen over the two weeks after 2026-06-15 (i.e. by roughly the end of June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-06-29","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[5409,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Republicans will suffer a blowout defeat in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[5023,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Senate leadership will waive normal rules to install Jay Clayton as DNI rather than let Bill Pulte take over as acting DNI when Tulsi Gabbard departs","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-06-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[5018,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Phone/app-based mobile voting will be adopted first in blue states and sanctuary cities rather than in Republican-run jurisdictions","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[5017,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No US-Iran agreement will actually end up being formally signed, including the signing set for Geneva on Friday June 19, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[5016,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Israel will continue its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon despite the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[3553,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will not take Greenland","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[3552,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will sign a JCPOA-style Iran deal (one leaving Iran with enriched uranium and delivering sanctions relief)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-15","2026-06-15","2026-07-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-15",6],[4183,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Once all the investments and loans promised to Iran under the 2026 US-Iran deal are added up, the total will be close to $300 billion","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-14","2026-06-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-14",6],[6828,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule that universal mail-in voting is not permitted","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-13","2026-06-13","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[6827,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule on Watson v. RNC within the next week or two (by roughly the end of June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-13","2026-06-13","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[6084,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Minnesota state-employee fraud whistleblowers who were surveilled and retaliated against will file civil lawsuits seeking compensation","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-13","2026-06-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[5864,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will retain control of the Georgia General Assembly after the November 2026 elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-13","2026-06-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[5015,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jay Clayton will be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence within about five days (by ~June 18, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-13","2026-06-13","2026-06-18","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[4180,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United Arab Emirates will give Iran a further $20-30 billion (beyond the $3 billion already paid)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-13","2026-06-13",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[4179,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will commit billions of dollars to a Middle East reconstruction/development fund as part of the Iran deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-13","2026-06-13",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[4178,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump-renovated reflecting pool will remain algae-infested, and painting it blue will not fix the algae problem","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-13","2026-06-13",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-13",6],[8074,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","SpaceX's June 2026 IPO will make approximately 4,000 of its equity holders millionaires.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[8073,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","SpaceX's June 2026 offering will be the largest IPO in history by initial public-market valuation.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[7459,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Revenues at the 100 biggest podcasts will rise 20% to 30%","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[7458,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Social media usage will decline more than expected, particularly among young people","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[7456,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","uncertain","The Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger will be approved and close","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[7455,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Epstein scandal will remain a persistent, significant political problem for Trump that he cannot escape","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[7454,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The Epstein files will not become a major political issue for the Trump administration","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[7453,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX will pop out of the gates and close up on its first day of trading (June 12, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[6826,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Between 20 and 30 million baby boomers will die over the next five years (by roughly mid-2031)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2031-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[6825,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will run out of funding by 2033, forcing an across-the-board benefit cut of roughly 24-25%","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2033-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[6824,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump will reverse himself within a day (by roughly June 13, 2026) and say the Iran de-escalation/deal is off","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-06-13","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[6450,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Trump administration will move against Trita Parsi, seeking to revoke his green card or deport him","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2027-01-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[6449,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Crude oil prices will rise further above the ~$90/barrel level of June 2026 as oil inventories decline","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[6448,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","No US-Iran peace deal will be reached in the near term; the war will not end in the weeks following mid-June 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5862,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","David Pakman's own US citizenship will not be revoked by the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5860,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's legal challenge to birthright citizenship will not succeed","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5858,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Rep. Jamie Raskin will not be expelled from the House of Representatives","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5857,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will serve out the full remainder of his presidential term, through January 20, 2029","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5584,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Karmelo Anthony will not serve his full 35-year sentence and will be released on parole after roughly ten years (~2036)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2036-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5014,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will not make a $12 billion up-front cash payment to Iran as part of any deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5013,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not fly to Geneva to sign the Iran deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5012,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","SpaceX stock will be added to the major market indexes almost immediately after its IPO, pulling pension and index-fund money into it","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-09-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5011,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Any nuclear agreement Iran makes with the United States will run roughly 20 years","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2027-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5010,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","As DNI, Jay Clayton will not open up or release the intelligence files on the 2020 election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[5009,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jay Clayton will be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by Thursday, June 18, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-06-18","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[3550,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will not return the US to war against Iran during the announced 60-day negotiating period (through ~mid-August 2026), leaving Iran free to act with impunity in the Strait of Hormuz","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-12","2026-06-12","2026-08-15","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-12",6],[8072,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Steve Hilton will not win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[6823,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court's Watson v. RNC ruling will end the counting of ballots after Election Day","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[6822,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will hand down its ruling in Watson v. RNC within about two weeks (by roughly the end of June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[6447,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Paramount Skydance / Warner Bros. Discovery merger will be approved and go through","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[6446,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US will not put boots on the ground in Iran despite Israeli pressure to do so","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5856,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US food prices will rise further in the months after June 2026 as higher fertilizer costs work through the food supply chain","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5855,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not be impeached and convicted (removed by the Senate) during this term","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5853,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The US-Iran war will end with a negotiated deal rather than dragging on to its 64th week (i.e., a deal will be reached before roughly May 2027)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2027-05-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5408,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5008,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Eric Metaxas's book 'Revolution' will be No. 1 on the New York Times bestseller list next week (the list published ~June 21, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-06-21","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5007,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will fast-track Jay Clayton's nomination and confirm him as Director of National Intelligence","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5006,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The House will be called back the week of June 15, 2026 to vote again on the expiring FISA extension","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-06-19","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5005,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","SpaceX's public offering, the largest in history, will take place on Monday, June 15, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-06-15","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[5004,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States and Iran will not have a deal signed within 72 hours (i.e., not by ~June 14, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-06-14","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[4621,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Rep. Jasmine Crockett will not represent her Dallas-area district much longer and has no political career ahead of her","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[4170,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Canada, Europe and Asia will continue to view the United States as an unreliable partner for decades, regardless of who is elected president next","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2036-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[4169,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US-Iran deal Trump announced on June 11, 2026 will not actually happen (no signing)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[4168,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Any US-Iran agreement will not include Iran ending its support for Hezbollah, the Houthis and its militia groups in Iraq","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[4167,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US year-over-year producer price index inflation will be around 7.2% in next month's reading (June 2026 data)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[4165,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US year-over-year CPI inflation will finish 2026 close to 6%","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-11","2026-06-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-11",6],[8071,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","James Talarico will lose the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-07-01",6],[8070,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Adam Hamawy will win New Jersey's 12th Congressional District in the 2026 general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-06-25",6],[6821,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Gavin Newsom will not be elected President with AOC as Vice President in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6820,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Nick Fuentes will be worth roughly $100 million by the time he is in his late 30s (around 2037)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2037-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6819,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule in Watson v. RNC that votes cannot be counted after Election Day","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-07-15","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6818,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","There will not be riots in response to Karmelo Anthony's murder conviction","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6817,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Karmelo Anthony will be sentenced to about 40 years in prison","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6445,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","High fuel prices from the Iran war will cost Republican lawmakers seats in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6081,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","No Minnesota state prosecutor will bring criminal charges against the Democratic officials running Minnesota over the social-services fraud and the whistleblower retaliation","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[6080,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Minnesota state employees who blew the whistle on the state's social-services fraud will file civil lawsuits seeking compensation over the retaliation against them","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[5852,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Few if any of the A-list celebrities invited by Dana White (Adam Sandler, Guy Ritchie, Tom Brady, Jared Leto, Jason Statham, Dwayne Johnson, Mario Lopez) will attend the UFC event on the White House lawn on June 14, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-06-14","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[5002,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will take its August 2026 recess rather than staying in session to finish appropriations work","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-09-08","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[5001,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass another continuing resolution for fiscal year 2027 and will not pass appropriations bills","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[4620,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Rep. Jasmine Crockett's political career is finished: she will serve out her current House term and will not hold elected office after it ends in January 2027","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[4619,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The jury's verdict in the Karmelo Anthony trial will be guilty on the murder count, not the lesser manslaughter count","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-06-10","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-10",6],[8069,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Ken Paxton will defeat James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",6],[7452,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Musk and SpaceX's banks will manufacture enough artificial scarcity to produce a first-day IPO pop","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-06-12","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",6],[7451,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US government will provide a bailout for AI companies in the form of government-backed debt or a backstop for their AI infrastructure commitments, positioned as a growth investment","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",6],[7450,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The broader tech stock market will decline as capital is absorbed by the SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",6],[7449,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX's valuation will peak at its IPO and decline from there — it will not exceed that level again for years","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",6],[7448,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX's revenue multiple will deflate dramatically from its ~94x IPO level as revenues grow","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",6],[7447,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","More damaging revelations and departures will continue to leak out of CBS News/60 Minutes","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[7446,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Nithya Raman will hold her lead over Spencer Pratt and take the second spot in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[7445,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","State attorneys general will file suit against the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger and will succeed in slowing it down","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[6816,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Dalton Earthly ('Chud the Builder') will be convicted and locked up","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[6814,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule in Watson v. RNC that mail-in ballots arriving after Election Day may not be counted","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-07-15","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[6813,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Karmelo Anthony will be convicted and sent to prison for the killing of Austin Metcalf","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[6640,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The New York Knicks will win the 2026 NBA Finals over the San Antonio Spurs","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[6444,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Nithya Raman will win the Los Angeles mayoral race","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[5407,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Kim Jong Un will die of natural causes while still in power in North Korea, rather than being removed or captured by a US military/special-forces operation","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[5000,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will fund the government with another continuing resolution rather than passing regular appropriations bills for fiscal year 2027","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-10-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4998,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No candidate will reach 50% in the June 9, 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, sending the race to a runoff","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-06-10","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4618,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The jury will convict Karmelo Anthony (absent jury nullification) in the Austin Metcalf stabbing trial","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4147,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US stock markets will keep falling in the weeks after June 9, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-07-09","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4146,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US gas prices will keep rising in the weeks after June 9, 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-07-09","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4144,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil prices will rise to $160-$200 per barrel","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4143,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","A Democrat will win the next presidential election (November 2028) in a landslide","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2028-11-07","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4142,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US war/conflict with Iran will not be resolved before the end of Donald Trump's term (January 2029)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4141,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The CPI inflation report released this week (June 2026) will come in at about 4% to 4.1%","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-06-12","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4138,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will argue that the plaintiffs lack standing to sue over the White House UFC fight","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[4135,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US strategic petroleum reserves will soon fall below the level they held on day one of the reserve's initial fill","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-09","2026-06-09",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-09",7],[8068,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","President Trump will not sign an Iran agreement that lets Iran rebuild its nuclear-weapons capacity, ballistic missiles, and regional terror network.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[6639,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Democrat (Rob Sand) will win the November 2026 Iowa governor's race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[6638,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Ashley Hinson (R) will win the November 2026 Iowa US Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[6636,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The Trump administration will publicly turn against Israel within the next several months (by roughly late 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[5406,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The AI/data-center investment boom is a bubble that will end in a major market crash (while the technology itself still proves transformational)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[4997,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Eric Metaxas's book 'Revolution' will reach #1 or #2 on the New York Times hardcover nonfiction bestseller list in June 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-06-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[4996,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Spencer Pratt will not be on the ballot in the November 2026 Los Angeles mayoral runoff","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[4995,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US will deploy another carrier strike group to the Red Sea region to keep the Red Sea and Suez Canal shipping corridor open","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-08","2026-06-08",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[4994,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Israel will continue its military operations in Lebanon in the weeks after June 8, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[4617,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Karmelo Anthony will be found guilty in the Austin Metcalf stabbing trial in Collin County, Texas","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[3365,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The abuse allegations will not sink Graham Platner - he will still win the Maine Democratic Senate primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-06-09","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[3364,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Israel will take military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, separately from the Iran conflict","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[3363,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will get Israel and Iran to stop firing at each other, restoring the ceasefire between them","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[3362,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Nithya Raman will beat Karen Bass in the November 2026 Los Angeles mayoral runoff","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-08","2026-06-08","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-08",7],[4131,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran's football federation president Mehdi Taj will also be barred by the United States from attending the 2026 World Cup","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-07","2026-06-07","2026-07-19","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-07",7],[3360,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Tucker Carlson will endorse/support the Democratic presidential nominee in the 2028 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-07","2026-06-07","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-07",7],[8067,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Karen Bass will win reelection as mayor of Los Angeles in the November 2026 runoff.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-06","2026-06-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-06",7],[6443,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will not secure the release of Samah Safai, the American student detained by Israeli forces in the West Bank","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-06","2026-06-06",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-06",7],[7444,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Apple will price its smart glasses ~40% above Meta's and capture roughly 80% of the category's profits","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2030-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[7443,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Apple will enter the smart glasses market late and come to dominate the category","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2029-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[7442,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Amazon will be the next mega-cap tech company after Alphabet to announce a large capital raise","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[7441,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Mega-cap tech companies will follow Alphabet with a wave of large capital raises to front-run the OpenAI/SpaceX/Anthropic IPOs","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[7440,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Dolly Parton will prevail over Missouri's funding cut and the money will reach the Imagination Library program","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6811,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will hold the Maine US Senate seat in the November 2026 midterms (Democrats will not flip Maine)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6635,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Elon Musk will become a trillionaire","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6634,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Spencer Pratt will not become mayor of Los Angeles","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6441,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Bernie Sanders' American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act will not advance or become law","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6440,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Benjamin Netanyahu will lose the upcoming Israeli election, roughly two months from early June 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6438,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will veto the Iran war powers resolution that passed the House","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6077,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The bipartisan Protect College Sports Act will pass the U.S. Senate with a large bipartisan vote","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[5403,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Nithya Raman will overtake Spencer Pratt for the second spot in the Los Angeles mayoral primary and advance to the general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-07-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4993,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate's Section 622 provision codifying expanded automatic US intelligence sharing with Israeli intelligence services will not become law","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4992,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will formally send Todd Blanche's nomination for Attorney General to the Senate very shortly (by ~mid-June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4991,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its next meeting, despite President Trump wanting a cut","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4616,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Karmelo Anthony will be convicted (not acquitted) in his Texas murder trial for the stabbing death of Austin Metcalf","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4615,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nithya Raman will not overtake Spencer Pratt for the second runoff spot in the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4614,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Steve Hilton will be one of the final two candidates advancing out of California's June 2026 gubernatorial primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[4124,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US oil reserves will fall to a critical threshold around mid-June 2026, producing a dramatic spike in oil prices","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-05","2026-06-05","2026-06-20","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-05",7],[6809,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Dalton Earthly ('Chud the Builder') will be convicted and sentenced to prison in the Tennessee shooting case","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[6633,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Nithya Raman will pass Spencer Pratt in the June 2026 LA mayoral primary count and make the runoff against Karen Bass","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[6437,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Congress will fail to enact meaningful regulation of prediction/betting markets","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[6436,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US will not arrest Benjamin Netanyahu on the ICC warrant","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[5851,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will be crushed, suffering major losses, in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[5401,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump's new tariffs on roughly 60 trading partners justified by forced-labor claims will be struck down in court","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[5400,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Clearing the mines from the Strait of Hormuz will take months, not weeks","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[5399,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Republican (Spencer Pratt) will not win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[5398,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Steve Hilton will not finish first in California's June 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary once all ballots are counted","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4990,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Elon Musk's AI company IPO will be the largest public offering in history","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4989,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Mike Lindell will win the Minnesota governor's race and become the next governor of Minnesota","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4988,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The AI industry's federal preemption/amnesty push (the state-preemption section of the Great American AI Act) will be defeated again and will not become law","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4986,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","John Bolton will cooperate with prosecutors and become a government witness against other people","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4984,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Individuals connected to the Southern Poverty Law Center, including its funders, will be arrested/criminally charged in the DOJ's SPLC case","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4983,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Todd Blanche will be confirmed by the Senate as Attorney General of the United States","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4613,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Scott Pelley will not go into independent media (i.e., will not launch or join a podcast) as his next move","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4612,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Scott Pelley's next job after being fired from CBS will be at PBS or a similar Frontline-type public-television program","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4122,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not agree to a deal by the U.S.-set end-of-week deadline of about June 5, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-06-08","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4120,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Crude oil futures will reach at least $150 per barrel and move toward $200 per barrel","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4119,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","U.S. gasoline prices will reach $8 to $12 per gallon","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4118,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil inventories will hit 'tank bottom' (critical operational minimum) within roughly 7 to 14 days, i.e. by about mid-June 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-06-18","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[4117,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","U.S. inflation will be very close to 5% by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[3543,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Within 10 years (by roughly 2036) essentially no Americans will be obese","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2036-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[3359,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Chuck Schumer will be pushed out of his position as Senate Democratic leader","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-04","2026-06-04",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[3358,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Democrats will stick with Graham Platner as their Maine Senate nominee rather than replace or abandon him","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-04","2026-06-04","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-04",7],[6627,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","California will have counted enough of the June 2026 primary vote for the second runoff qualifiers to be known by around the mid-July 2026 MLB All-Star Game","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-07-14","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6626,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Steve Hilton will finish in the top two of the June 2026 California governor primary and advance to the runoff against Javier Becerra","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-07-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6625,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Spencer Pratt will finish in the top two of the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary and advance to the runoff against Karen Bass","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6434,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Ro Khanna will easily win his June 2, 2026 California congressional primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-06-02","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6433,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Republicans will suffer seat losses in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6432,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Matt Walsh will lose his job at / depart The Daily Wire over his anti-Iran-war stance","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6430,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US gas prices will keep rising above their early-June 2026 level","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-03","2026-06-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[6429,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will side with the Israelis and double down on the Iran war rather than backing out to a negotiated settlement (Cenk puts it at 95%)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-03","2026-06-03",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[5580,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Steve Hilton will finish in the top two of California's June 2026 top-two gubernatorial primary and advance to the November 2026 general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-07-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[4982,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Andy Biggs will be elected the next governor of Arizona in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[4980,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal income tax will not be eliminated under President Trump","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[4611,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","California state senator Scott Wiener will win the November 2026 general election for Nancy Pelosi's House seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[4609,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republican Steve Hilton will finish in the top two of California's June 2026 open gubernatorial primary and advance to the November 2026 general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[3541,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Democrats will not win the Iowa U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[3540,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Mike Rogers will be the Republican U.S. Senate nominee in Michigan in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-08-04","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[3539,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Adam Hamawi will win New Jersey's 12th district in November 2026 and be seated in Congress in January 2027","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[3356,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","U.S. gasoline prices will fall further in the run-up to the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[3355,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The California governor's race will go to a runoff between Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[3354,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","No candidate will clear 50% in the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary, sending Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt to a November 2026 runoff","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-03","2026-06-03","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-03",7],[8066,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S.-Iran conflict will not kill thousands of American troops.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[8065,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Spencer Pratt will finish in the top two in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary and advance to the runoff.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[7439,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","GLP-1 related equities will outperform AI equities over the next decade","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2036-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[7438,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","GLP-1 drugs will fall below $100 a month in price","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[7436,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Anthropic will be the only one of the three (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) trading above its IPO price 12 months after listing","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[7435,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The decline in AI company valuations will send the US and global economy into a recession","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[7434,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","At least one of Anthropic, OpenAI or SpaceX will fall roughly 40% to 70% in value after listing","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[6806,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Israel will no longer receive funding/aid from the United States within 10 years (by ~2036)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2036-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[6805,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Thomas Massie will not win the 2028 presidential race","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[6427,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will go back into full war against Iran rather than cutting a peace deal (Cenk puts it at about 98%)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[6426,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US/Israeli war on Iran will not produce regime change in Iran - the Islamic Republic government will remain in power","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[6425,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Oil prices will rise to about $150-$160 per barrel within weeks of early June 2026 because of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[5850,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","uncertain","Ken Paxton will win the November 2026 US Senate race in Texas","Loose",30,"Elections",56,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[5397,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","More new billionaires will be created in 2027 than in any prior year in history, driven by the Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX IPOs","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2027-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[5396,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will fall to its lowest level on record by roughly the week of June 9, 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-06-09","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[5395,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Israel will resume major strikes on Beirut after the early-June 2026 pause Trump imposed","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4978,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth will break her pledge and re-enter the Republican primary for Minnesota governor against Mike Lindell","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-06-03","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4977,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran's nuclear weapons program will remain destroyed and will not be reconstituted for roughly the next two decades (into the ~2040s) following the June 2025 US strikes","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2046-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4608,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Karmelo Anthony will be convicted in the Texas murder trial over the stabbing of Austin Metcalf","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4607,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The presiding federal judge in the Lively-Baldoni case will not rule on the constitutionality of California's Speak Your Truth Act (Civil Code 47.1)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4606,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Blake Lively will lose her bid for attorneys' fees, treble and punitive damages against Justin Baldoni under California Civil Code 47.1","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4109,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Bill Pulte will serve only as acting Director of National Intelligence for the statutory period and then be withdrawn rather than confirmed","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2027-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4108,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States and Iran will not reach a deal for years (no US-Iran agreement through at least 2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2029-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4107,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Canada will order roughly three times as many Saab Gripen fighter jets as US-made F-35s","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[4106,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will be close to 5% or higher by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[3538,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Spencer Pratt will not be elected mayor of Los Angeles in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",7],[3537,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Steve Hilton will not be elected governor of California in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",8],[3353,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The June 2026 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will not hold permanently; fighting between Israel and Hezbollah will resume","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-02","2026-06-02",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",8],[3352,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Bari Weiss will not fire Scott Pelley from CBS/60 Minutes","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-06-02","2026-06-02","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-02",8],[8064,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Spencer Pratt will not win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[8063,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Nithya Raman will finish third in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[6623,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Trump's efforts to interfere with the November 2026 midterm elections will not succeed","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[6622,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Within roughly 3 to 12 months of signing a deal, Iran will violate or undermine it (e.g., by interfering with free passage through the Strait of Hormuz)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[6621,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The courts will rule against the Trump administration on birthright citizenship","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[6620,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The U.S. and Iran will ultimately reach a deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[6075,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Graham Platner will withdraw as Maine's Democratic U.S. Senate nominee by the July 13, 2026 replacement deadline","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-07-13","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5849,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will appeal the federal court ruling ordering his name removed from the Kennedy Center","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5848,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The US will not issue a $250 bill bearing Donald Trump's face","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5847,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not deliver a health care bill/plan during his second term (through January 2029)","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5579,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The prosecutor accused of violating the gag order in the Tyler Robinson case will not be removed from the case","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01",null,"2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5394,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Israel will carry out heavy strikes on Beirut within the next day (by roughly 2 June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-06-03","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5393,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The sexting scandal will not hurt Graham Platner's polling","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-08-01","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[5392,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Maine voters will shrug off the Graham Platner sexually explicit texts story and it will not cost him the Democratic Senate nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-06-09","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[4605,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The US-Iran war will not end in the near term (no deal ending the conflict within roughly the following month, i.e. by early July 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-07-01","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[4604,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Karen Bass will not clear 50% in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary, so the race will go to a November runoff","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-06-02","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[4603,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Bari Weiss will not succeed at CBS News and will not hold her CBS News leadership role long term","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[4601,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Graham Platner will win Maine's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 9, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-06-09","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[4105,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US retail gasoline prices will reach $6-$8 per gallon and gas lines will appear by roughly mid-June 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-06-15","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[3536,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Democrats will win the November 2026 midterm elections by running on blocking Trump","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[3535,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States will resume active military operations against Iran (the ceasefire collapses back into war)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-12-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[3350,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Ken Paxton will win the Texas U.S. Senate general election in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",56,"Notable","2026-06-01","2026-06-01","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-06-01",8],[4103,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","In Katie Phang's Epstein Files Transparency Act lawsuit, the Justice Department will argue that the Act provides no private cause of action or remedy","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-05-31","2026-05-31","2026-06-16","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-31",8],[6804,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","President Trump will not invoke the Insurrection Act to deal with left-wing/Antifa street violence","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-30","2026-05-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-30",8],[4976,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not write a check or hand cash to what remains of the Iranian regime as part of the Iran deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-30","2026-05-30",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-30",8],[7432,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","As AI costs fall, the US will end up employing more programmers, not fewer — the predicted AI labor apocalypse will not happen","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[7431,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Bay Area philanthropic giving will surge dramatically following the 2026 AI/SpaceX IPO liquidity events","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[7430,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The wave of mega-IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) will pull the S&P 500 down in the short run as capital is diverted into them","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[7429,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will go through a serious repricing (a significant valuation decline, short of a 2000-style collapse) after going public","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[7428,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Ferrari's new electric car will be one of the biggest brand failures of the year, widely panned and commercially disappointing","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[6803,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The United States will take military action against Cuba","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[6423,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will expand its control of the Gaza Strip to 70% of the territory","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[5846,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Grocery prices will never return to their pre-pandemic (2019-2020) levels","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[5845,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","A U.S. $250 bill bearing Donald Trump's face will never be issued","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[5577,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Utah's current court-ordered congressional redistricting map will not be overturned or redrawn in time for the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[5576,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","A Democrat will win the North Carolina U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Thom Tillis in the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4975,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S. Treasury will succeed in rolling over/refinancing maturing federal debt, but will do so at higher interest rates","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2027-05-29","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4974,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not agree to a $300 billion Iran reconstruction/investment fund as part of the Iran deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4973,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not agree to a roughly $12 billion up-front cash payment to Iran's regime as part of the Iran ceasefire/nuclear deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4972,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal income tax will not be abolished in the near term - Bannon puts elimination roughly a decade away (i.e., not before ~2036)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2036-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4971,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The litigation over Trump's March 2026 elections executive order (dismissed for lack of standing by DC federal Judge Nichols) will be appealed and ultimately decided by the U.S. Supreme Court","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4600,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Katie Porter will not finish in the top two of California's June 2, 2026 gubernatorial primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-06-02","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4599,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republican Chad Bianco will not be the Republican who advances out of California's June 2, 2026 top-two gubernatorial primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-06-02","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"ca-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4598,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","James Talarico will lose the Texas U.S. Senate race in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4097,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation (PCE or CPI) will hit 5% by around October 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4096,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Canada will choose the Saab Gripen rather than additional US F-35s in its fighter jet review","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4095,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi's May 29, 2026 congressional testimony will not be recorded on video camera","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[4094,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi's May 29, 2026 congressional testimony will not be given under oath","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[3534,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","James Talarico will not win the Texas U.S. Senate seat in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[3532,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Congress will not authorize or appropriate $300 billion of U.S. taxpayer money to reconstruct Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-29","2026-05-29",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[3349,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will attend a 2026 NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden in person","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-29","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-29",8],[8061,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republican nominee Ken Paxton will defeat Democrat James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",73,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[6801,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","A spoiler third-party or independent presidential run in 2028 will be mounted by Tulsi Gabbard, Thomas Massie, or Joe Kent","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[6800,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Texas Democrat James Talarico will not win the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[5843,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration's promised 4%-6% GDP growth will not happen in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[5391,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Oil will not fall back to about $50 a barrel; prices will remain elevated","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2027-05-28","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[5390,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US national average gasoline price will not fall below $3.00/gallon for about a year (i.e., not before roughly May 2027)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2027-05-28","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[5389,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not accept a Strait of Hormuz deal that returns the Strait fully to the pre-war status quo with no Iranian or Omani role or fee","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[5388,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","AI will be a central issue in the 2028 US presidential campaign debates","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2028-11-07","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4969,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not approve the reported 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on the terms leaked to Axios/The Hill (notably the requirement to lift the naval blockade)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4964,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","James Talarico will not win the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election","Firm",90,"Elections",73,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4961,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear the appeal of Judge Nichols's ruling on Trump's elections executive order en banc","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4960,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The legal fight over Trump's executive order restricting mail-in/absentee balloting and requiring citizenship checks will reach the U.S. Supreme Court on the emergency docket before the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4093,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","The Arab nations Trump is pressuring (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan) will not join the Abraham Accords","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4092,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will not sit for a deposition in his defamation lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4091,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi's May 29, 2026 congressional deposition will not be video-recorded","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-05-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4090,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi's May 29, 2026 congressional deposition will not be conducted under oath","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-05-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4089,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","PCE inflation will reach 5% by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4088,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the other Arab nations Trump named will not join the Abraham Accords","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4087,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","James Comer will cease to be chairman of the House Oversight Committee","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4086,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's Iran deal will unfreeze more Iranian funds than Obama's JCPOA did","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-28","2026-05-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[4085,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Canada will select Sweden's Saab Gripen as its next fighter jet (over the US F-35) in the near term (2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[3531,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Mamdani's housing plan to seize and city-manage privately owned rental buildings will never be implemented in New York City","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[3528,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg will both run in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary as the establishment-lane candidates","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[3527,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Josh Shapiro will not run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-28","2026-05-28","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-28",8],[6798,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","People in the pro-China / Neville Singham-funded left-wing network (other than Hassan Piker himself) will be prosecuted and go to jail","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6797,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Hassan Piker will cooperate with federal investigators on the Cuba-trip subpoena rather than fight it, giving them what they ask for","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6796,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will win the November 2026 midterm elections, retaining control of the U.S. House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6614,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","James Talarico will lose the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election to Ken Paxton","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6419,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US-Iran war will not end for months because Trump's demand that all enriched uranium be handed over on day one is impossible to meet","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6073,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Ken Paxton will win the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election against Democrat James Talarico","Firm",90,"Elections",73,"Bold","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6072,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Millions of dollars of attack ads will run against Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6071,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Total spending in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary and runoff will end up well north of $150 million","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[6070,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Texas will seat a new junior senator in January 2027 (John Cornyn will not return to the Senate)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[5842,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republican Ken Paxton will defeat Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[4958,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S.-Iran negotiations will not conclude quickly — no final peace deal within about a month of late May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[4957,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No Persian Gulf maritime authority that monitors and controls shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be created in the U.S.-Iran deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-27","2026-05-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[4956,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will beat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election by at least three to five points","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[4955,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not agree to pay Iran a multibillion-dollar down payment (roughly $12 billion of the ~$24 billion Iran is demanding) as part of ending the war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[4953,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will defeat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election by more than 5 percentage points","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[4597,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Ken Paxton will defeat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election","Firm",90,"Elections",73,"Bold","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[3525,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","There will probably be another presidential impeachment (a third impeachment of Donald Trump)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[3524,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Josh Shapiro will win reelection as governor of Pennsylvania in November 2026, most likely by a large margin","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[3523,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Graham Plattner will win the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination in Maine in the June 2026 primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-06-09","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[3348,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Ken Paxton will win the Texas US Senate seat in the November 2026 general election (beating James Talarico)","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-27","2026-05-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-27",8],[5841,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","U.S. GDP growth will not reach 6% in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5840,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump Jr. will not be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5839,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","JD Vance will not be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5837,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not go to prison","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5835,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration/DOJ will not criminally go after Barack Obama","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5387,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Prediction-market gambling will eventually be banned in the US, roughly ten years from now (~2036)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2036-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5386,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Trump administration/CFTC will win its lawsuit blocking Minnesota's ban on prediction markets","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[5385,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US and Iran will not reach a deal ending the war in the near term (by the end of June 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-06-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[4952,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal income tax will not be eliminated in the near term — no repeal/elimination of the federal income tax will be enacted by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[4083,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Qatar will not enter the Abraham Accords","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[4082,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will deprive Taiwan of US military assistance, siding with Xi Jinping over Taiwan","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[4080,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the other non-signatory Arab states will not join the Abraham Accords / normalize relations with Israel unless and until a two-state solution recognizing Palestine is reached","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[4079,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Democratic lead in the RCP generic congressional ballot will keep rising above its current 7.4-point margin ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[3521,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Ken Paxton will defeat John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff held May 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[3347,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will not agree to an Iran deal that lets Iran keep its enriched uranium or nuclear material","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[3346,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iranian people will not rise up and overthrow the clerical regime in the wake of the 2026 US-Iran war (regime stays in power through 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-26","2026-05-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-26",8],[6613,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Ken Paxton will defeat John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-25","2026-05-25","2026-05-26","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6612,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","After the Iran conflict is wrapped up, the Trump administration will move militarily/aggressively against Cuba","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-25","2026-05-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6610,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Oil and gas prices will not return to their pre-Iran-war levels","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-25","2026-05-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6609,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Within about six weeks (by ~early July 2026), Iran will deny passage to a vessel or otherwise interfere with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate its control","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-25","2026-05-25","2026-07-06","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6608,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","By ~May 26, 2026, the Trump-supporting Iran hawks will mute their objections to the Iran deal and spin it positively","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-25","2026-05-25","2026-05-26","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6607,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will reach a deal with Iran and get the U.S. out of the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-25","2026-05-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6069,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","More damaging opposition research on Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner will surface between late May and November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-25","2026-05-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6068,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","At least one additional country will join the Abraham Accords","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-25","2026-05-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[6066,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Republicans will retain their U.S. House majority in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-25","2026-05-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-25",8],[5383,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Oil and natural gas will not resume normal flow through the Strait of Hormuz within the next thirty days (by ~June 23, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-24","2026-05-24","2026-06-23","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-24",8],[6418,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will be driven from office before the end of his term because of his unpopularity","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-05-23","2026-05-23","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-23",8],[6417,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not be able to cancel or block the 2028 presidential election (no martial-law power grab to stay in office)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-23","2026-05-23","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-23",8],[7426,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US and Cuba will reach a deal within the coming months (by ~September 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",8],[7425,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","At least one of the major AI-capex companies (e.g. Nvidia, SpaceX, OpenAI) will fall 70% to 95% in value","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2029-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",8],[7424,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX will price its IPO at a valuation materially below $2 trillion","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-06-12","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[7423,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX's market capitalization will be well below $1 trillion by the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[7422,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The SpaceX IPO will pop on its first day of trading","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-06-12","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[6064,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Congress will pass legislation funding border security (ICE/CBP) in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[6063,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The White House and DOJ will announce a change or modification to the $1.776 billion weaponization Judgment Fund","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[6062,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Senate will take up and vote on the border-security (ICE/CBP funding) reconciliation package the week of June 1, 2026, after its one-week recess","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-06-12","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[6061,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Bill Cassidy will not be a U.S. senator in 2027","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[5834,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration will not criminally prosecute Barack Obama","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[5382,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","John Fetterman will not switch parties to become a Republican","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2029-01-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[5381,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","John Fetterman will lose the 2028 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[5380,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","No US-Iran deal will be announced in the days following May 22, 2026 (i.e. not by the end of May 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-05-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4951,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrat Graham Platner will defeat Susan Collins in the November 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race, and will win comfortably","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4950,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","John Cornyn will lose decisively to Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 26, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-05-26","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4595,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Utah County attorney Chris Ballard will face no meaningful consequence over the alleged gag-order violation in the Tyler Robinson case","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-06-12","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4594,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The judge in the Tyler Robinson case will not grant the defense motion to close portions of the preliminary hearing to the media/public","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-06-01","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4593,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Robert Harward will publicly respond to the viral 'mask' clip from his Fox News appearance — via a statement or another TV hit — within hours of May 22, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-05-23","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4075,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Islamic Republic of Iran's government will remain in power through the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4074,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not transfer its nuclear material to the United States or to any other country","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4073,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not give up its control of the Strait of Hormuz in any deal with the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4072,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Strait of Hormuz will not reopen to normal shipping in the near term after late May 2026 (not by roughly the end of June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[4069,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump's approval rating on handling the economy will fall into the 20s (below 30%) in major national polling within months of May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[3345,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Pete Buttigieg will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2028-08-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[3344,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The 2028 Republican presidential nomination will not be handed to JD Vance -- Trump will push it into a contested/brokered convention fight","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[3343,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Spencer Pratt will not win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[3341,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Florida will eliminate property taxes -- the DeSantis-backed measure will make it through the referendum and be adopted (November 2026 ballot)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-22","2026-05-22","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-22",9],[8059,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","James Fishback will lose the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary to Byron Donalds.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-08-18","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,"fl-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[6616,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Republicans holding the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms remains a long shot -- Democrats will win the House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[6615,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Ken Paxton will win the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-05-26","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[6415,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not give up its control of the Strait of Hormuz","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[5831,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump allies such as Mike Lindell and January 6 defendants will get away with collecting payouts from the $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[5378,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Oil will remain above $100 per barrel for at least the next year (through roughly May 2027), rather than the price spike being a short-lived blip","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2027-05-21","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4948,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrat Sherrod Brown will win the Ohio U.S. Senate race in November 2026, defeating the Republican incumbent","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4947,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republican Susan Collins will lose her Maine U.S. Senate seat in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4946,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republican Michael Whatley will lose the North Carolina U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,"nc-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4945,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrat Jon Ossoff will win the Georgia U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4944,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will lose control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],3,"2026-06-19",9],[4592,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Stephen Colbert will launch a podcast or another independent-media venture after The Late Show ends (final episode May 21, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2027-05-21","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4068,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US year-over-year inflation will reach 5%","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4067,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not give up control of the Strait of Hormuz","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4066,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The House of Representatives will shut down and go home shortly, staying out until June 2026, just as the Senate did","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-06-01","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4061,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The $1 billion in federal funding for Trump's White House ballroom will not be enacted — it is stripped from the reconciliation bill for good","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4060,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will veto the Iran war powers resolution once it reaches his desk","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[4059,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The House of Representatives will join the Senate in passing a war powers resolution blocking Trump's further military operations in Iran, on May 21, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-05-21","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[3339,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Raul Castro will be taken into US custody by force in a US operation rather than surrendering or travelling to the US voluntarily","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[3338,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The US will carry out military action in Cuba that removes what remains of the Cuban communist regime from power","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-21","2026-05-21",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-21",9],[8058,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Maureen Galindo will win the 2026 Democratic nomination for Texas's 35th Congressional District.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-05-26","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[8056,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-05-26","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[8055,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election.","Loose",30,"Elections",58,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6606,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Trump will remain the Republican kingmaker and the 2028 Republican presidential nominee will be whoever Trump anoints","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6413,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will commit American ground troops to the war with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6412,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Donald Trump will order new US military strikes on Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6411,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The remaining Epstein files will not be released now that Thomas Massie has lost his Kentucky primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6059,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Total spending in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary (first round plus runoff) will exceed $150 million","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6058,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Trump-backed challenger who defeated Thomas Massie in the Kentucky GOP primary will win the November 2026 general election for that House seat","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6057,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The next U.S. senator from Louisiana will be either John Fleming or Julia Letlow","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[6056,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Bill Cassidy will not be a U.S. senator in 2027 (his Senate service ends in January 2027)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[5830,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Ken Paxton will win the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff against John Cornyn","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-05-26","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[5829,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump-endorsed Republican who defeated Thomas Massie in the primary will win Kentucky's 4th congressional district in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[5570,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Mike Collins will win the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,"ga-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[5569,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Barr will win the November 2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate general election and become Kentucky's next senator","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[5568,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Ken Paxton will win the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election by a margin of six to ten percentage points","Firm",90,"Elections",73,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[4941,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Derek Dooley will not win the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate nomination","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"ga-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[3520,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Tucker Carlson will not run for president in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[3519,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Thomas Massie will run for president in 2028 (as a Republican or an independent)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-20","2026-05-20","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-20",9],[7421,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","China will not launch an amphibious military invasion of Taiwan","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2028-05-19","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[7420,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","China will impose a soft economic blockade on Taiwan / the Taiwan Strait","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2028-05-19","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[7419,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","China will invade or seize the Kinmen and Matsu Islands within 24 months (by ~May 2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2028-05-19","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[7418,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Karen Bass will win re-election as mayor of Los Angeles in the 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[7417,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","uncertain","Donald Trump personally will not face criminal legal consequences for his stock trading and self-dealing","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[7416,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","uncertain","AOC or Bernie Sanders will appear at a US data-center construction/protest site to rally opposition within days (by ~early June 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-06-15","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[6410,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will not launch a military attack on Cuba","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[6408,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will get what it wants and the US will restart the kinetic war against Iran despite worldwide opposition","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[5828,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will face no consequences for the stock purchases revealed in his 2026 financial disclosure that he publicly promoted","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[5827,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not be removed from office via the 25th Amendment","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[5566,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Ken Paxton will win the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election by at least four percentage points","Firm",90,"Elections",73,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[5377,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump's political standing will not recover before the November 2026 midterms; his ratings on the economy and cost of living will stay deeply net negative","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[5375,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US and Iran will not reach a negotiated deal in the near term","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[5374,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win control of both the House and the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4936,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Georgia Republican U.S. Senate primary held May 19, 2026 will go to a runoff (no candidate clears 50%)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-05-20","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4934,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jon Ossoff will win re-election to his Georgia U.S. Senate seat in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4933,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will lose the North Carolina U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4932,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will lose the Georgia U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4931,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at any meeting for the remainder of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4929,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran, working with China, will deliberately drag out the Middle East conflict rather than settle it, leaving it unresolved through the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4928,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","John Thune will not attach the SAVE America Act to a must-pass bill in the Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4926,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will hold the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4053,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US CPI inflation will be at 6% to 6.5% by the end of 2027","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4051,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Open hostilities in the US-Iran war will resume during the week of roughly May 25, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[4050,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US CPI inflation will hit 5% by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[3337,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran's new supreme leader (Khamenei's successor, installed after the 2026 war) will lose power within roughly a year, i.e. by about mid-2027","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-19","2026-05-19","2027-05-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-19",9],[8054,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Graham Platner will lose the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[6605,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will not step down from the presidency over age or health, no matter how much he deteriorates","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[6604,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Mayor Mamdani's balanced New York City budget will be enacted into law","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-07-01","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[6602,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Thomas Massie will narrowly lose his May 19, 2026 Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th district","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-05-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[6601,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The November 2026 midterms will be a good Democratic year, with Democrats making net congressional gains and winning the House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[6600,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump's approval rating will fall below 37% later in 2026, ahead of the November midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5826,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US gas prices will still be painfully high for Americans through the November 2026 midterm election","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5372,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Thomas Massie will lose his May 19, 2026 Kentucky Republican congressional primary to Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-05-19","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5371,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will reject the US negotiating terms (no sanctions relief and no unfreezing of Iranian assets)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5370,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will choose renewed military escalation against Iran (another bombing campaign or ground action) over accepting a negotiated deal","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-08-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5369,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US gasoline prices will not fall below $3.50 a gallon for at least a year (through roughly May 2027), even if the Iran war ended immediately","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2027-05-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5368,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US and Iran will not reach a negotiated agreement on the terms currently on the table","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[5367,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Iran war will resume; the US-Iran ceasefire will break down and military hostilities will restart","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[4924,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US will resume kinetic military strikes on Iran following the current ceasefire","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[4923,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will drag the war/Strait of Hormuz standoff out past the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[4591,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Cuba will not carry out an attack on the United States (Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels, or Key West)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[3335,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Mid-decade redistricting will net Republicans about 10 additional House seats nationwide by the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-18","2026-05-18","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-18",9],[6407,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US oil companies and the wealthiest Americans will publicly ask for a federal bailout","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-16","2026-05-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-16",9],[6406,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","After the Iran war, Israel will demand tens of billions of dollars in additional US aid to replace weaponry and rebuild","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-16","2026-05-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-16",9],[6405,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will resume military attacks on Iran within about 10 days (by roughly 2026-05-26)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-16","2026-05-16","2026-05-26","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-16",9],[6404,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Oil will rise above $150 per barrel","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-16","2026-05-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-16",9],[4922,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will net at least 10 additional US House seats from the 2025-26 redistricting fights in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-16","2026-05-16","2026-11-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-16",9],[7415,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Jensen Huang will make a political contribution on the order of $300 million","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[7414,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Cerebras will pop on its IPO debut and then fail to sustain its $40 billion valuation, with the stock falling","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[7413,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates for the remainder of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[7412,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The U.S. Supreme Court will allow the Virginia redistricting to go forward rather than blocking it","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[7411,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The jury will rule against Elon Musk in his case against OpenAI","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6795,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Within one to two years (by roughly mid-2028), AI will be able to auto-generate complete playable video games from a natural-language prompt","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2028-05-15","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6794,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","By around May 2027, publicly available AI video tools will generate full movies or at least full TV episodes on demand","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2027-05-15","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6793,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The US government will not confirm that extraterrestrial life exists before 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2028-01-01","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6792,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","China will not take military action against Taiwan because of the economic cost of doing so","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6791,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will not flip the Alaska US Senate seat in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6789,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will win the November 2026 midterms and hold the US House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6599,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Southern Republican states will fail to complete the maximum redistricting damage — eliminating every majority-minority congressional district — in time for the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6403,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Kentucky 4th District Republican primary between Thomas Massie and Ed Gallrein will be a close race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-05-19","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6055,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trey's Law (federal ban on enforcing non-disclosure agreements against child sexual abuse victims) will pass the Senate and House and be signed into law by President Trump","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[6054,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Officer John Barnes and Chief Michael Ansbro Public Safety Officers Benefit Program Expansion Act of 2026 will pass the full Senate and House and be signed into law by President Trump","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[5564,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Congress will not pass the big spending cuts conservatives want or a balanced federal budget under the current Congress (through the end of 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",9],[5366,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will not fight a hot war with China over Taiwan","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[5365,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not walk away from the Iran war; he will continue or escalate US military involvement rather than accept a settlement that reads as defeat","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[4921,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","US 30-year mortgage rates will rise from their mid-May 2026 level as the 30-year Treasury yield holds above 5.1%","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[4920,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will drag out the current standoff/war with the US through the November 2026 midterms rather than accepting an off-ramp or settlement before then","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[4590,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Alex Murdaugh will remain in prison on his financial-crime sentences until he is in his late 80s (roughly 2055), even with credit for good behavior","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2055-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[4041,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Year-over-year CPI inflation in the US will reach at least 4% by the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[3518,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Corrupt dealings involving the Trump, Witkoff and Lutnick families will be exposed and people involved will go to prison","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[3517,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will not accept a bad deal with Iran - i.e. will not sign an agreement that leaves Iran's nuclear/enrichment program intact or grants sanctions relief without dismantlement","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[3516,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States will fly into Havana and arrest Raul Castro to face charges in the US, as it did with Maduro","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[3515,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Cuba's communist regime will collapse imminently - within months of May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[3514,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Chinese Communist regime as it currently exists will not still be ruling China by roughly 2075","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-15","2026-05-15","2075-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-15",10],[6787,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Mississippi will redistrict its congressional map for the election cycle after 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[6402,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Representative Randy Fine will win re-election in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5561,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","No major accord will be reached at Trump's May 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping in China","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5364,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","China will not bail the United States out of the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5363,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will publicly spin the Beijing summit as a major victory and claim deals were struck","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-22","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5362,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing will produce no significant concrete agreements","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-17","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5361,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US national average diesel price will exceed its all-time high of about $5.81/gallon within roughly a week (by ~May 21, 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-25","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5360,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","California's average gasoline price will reach about $7 a gallon (from ~$6.14 in mid-May 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-08-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[5359,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","US crop production will be hit in the next (2026-27) growing season because of high fertilizer costs, with farmers cutting back planting","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2027-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4919,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Taiwan will be a major topic in the closing meetings of the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, contrary to Rubio's statement that it did not feature prominently","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-15","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4917,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Louisiana Senate primary voted on Saturday May 16, 2026 will go to a runoff, with the Trump-endorsed candidate failing to clear 50% in the first round","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-16","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4916,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in June 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4589,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","US deportation and self-deportation numbers will decline from their current pace because the administration has shifted to a softer enforcement approach","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4588,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","A Democrat will win the California governor's race in the November 2026 general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4587,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Trump's \"I don't think about Americans' financial situation, not even a little bit\" answer will be cut into Democratic campaign ads run against Republicans ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4040,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","U.S. year-over-year CPI inflation will rise from 3.8% to roughly 4.2% by the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[4039,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Open hostilities in the U.S./Israel-Iran war will resume within roughly two weeks of Trump returning from China, i.e. by about the end of May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[3334,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Gad Saad's new book (Suicidal Empathy) will be the number one book of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-14","2026-05-14","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-14",10],[6597,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Trump's approval rating will keep falling below the record low it hit in May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[6401,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","CNN's Dana Bash will not apologize for or correct her on-air claim that Israeli soldiers do not rape Palestinians","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[6400,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The total US cost of the Iran war will be 10 to 100 times the Pentagon's stated $29 billion figure","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[6399,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[6398,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates further in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[6397,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will take the US back into the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[6396,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US stock market will crash on a scale not seen in our lifetimes","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5824,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not leave office before the end of his term unless he dies or is incapacitated (no successful 25th Amendment removal or impeachment removal)","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5560,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Trump's May 2026 meeting with Xi Jinping in China will not produce a sweeping agreement or accord; it will be the first of a series of meetings","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2026-05-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5358,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Global public opinion of Iran will improve significantly in international polling following the 2026 Iran war","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5357,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Russia will end up holding at least a portion of Ukrainian territory","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5356,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5355,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US and China will strike a Japan-style trade deal in which Chinese goods are allowed into the US market in exchange for Chinese companies manufacturing in the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[5354,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Kamala Harris will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[4915,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will be no U.S.-Iran deal ending the Persian Gulf war in the near term; Iran will drag the conflict out rather than settle (no deal by roughly the end of summer 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2026-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[4914,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will pick up two or three more U.S. House seats from the remaining mid-decade redistricting fights (beyond the five or six already on the board) before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-13","2026-05-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-13",10],[7410,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Mamdani's proposed New York pied-a-terre tax will be watered down rather than enacted as proposed","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[7409,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","A screen adaptation of Patrick Radden Keefe's 'London Falling' will be on Netflix within 24 months (by ~May 2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2028-05-12","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[7408,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Trump Mobile phone will never ship to the customers who paid deposits","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[7407,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Ken Griffin will pull the capital he was investing in Manhattan and move it to Florida and Texas in response to Mamdani's tax push and doxxing","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[7406,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Apple will scrap Siri's own AI and license a third-party AI model for tens of billions of dollars","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[7405,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","London will boom over the three years to ~May 2029 as human and financial capital returns from the Gulf","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2029-05-12","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[6786,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The hantavirus scare will not develop into a significant US outbreak or pandemic","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[6785,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Venezuela will not become the 51st US state","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[6394,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US stock market will suffer a spectacular crash","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[6393,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will re-enter the war with Iran and resume military strikes","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[5351,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US average gasoline prices will rise to about $6 per gallon (from ~$4.50 in May 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[5350,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Chinese-brand (BYD) cars sold in the United States will be manufactured in the United States","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2031-05-12","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[5349,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","BYD (Chinese-brand) cars will be on the road in the United States within five years (by ~May 2031)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2031-05-12","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4913,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","An organized army of trained conservative/MAGA grassroots volunteers will be stationed at polling places and ballot boxes for the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4586,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Blake Lively will be awarded attorney's fees in the Baldoni litigation for defeating his defamation claim","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4034,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US interest rates will not be reduced through the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4032,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US will launch a new invasion of Iran under the name 'Operation Sledgehammer' after Trump's China trip","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4031,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US-Iran ceasefire will collapse and open war will resume shortly after Trump's China trip concludes (roughly late May/June 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2026-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4028,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's 'gold card' visa program will not bring in $5 trillion in revenue","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[4027,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Painting the National Mall reflecting pool bright blue will worsen rather than fix its algae buildup and cracking problems","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[3333,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","After his governorship ends in January 2027, Ron DeSantis will go into the private sector for a couple of years before returning to politics","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2029-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[3332,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Cuba will be freer at the end of Donald Trump's presidency (January 2029) than it was in May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[3331,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The 2028 Republican presidential nomination will be a contested fight rather than JD Vance being handed it as the sitting vice president","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-12","2026-05-12","2028-08-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-12",10],[8050,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Elliott Page will not portray Achilles in Christopher Nolan's film The Odyssey.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-07-17","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[8049,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States will not materially change its longstanding policy position on Taiwan during the current U.S.-China summit.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[8048,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Donald Trump will not make substantive U.S. artificial-intelligence concessions to China in the current U.S.-China summit.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6596,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","After Iran, the Trump administration will move against Cuba, pushing an overt regime-change campaign there","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6595,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The proposal to lower the mandatory retirement age for Virginia Supreme Court judges to 54 (which would remove the sitting justices) will not be enacted","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6594,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms despite the new Republican gerrymanders","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6593,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms in a large wave election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6592,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Russia and Ukraine will not reach a peace agreement, because Putin's terms (keeping roughly 20% of Ukraine) will not be acceptable to Zelensky","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6052,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","U.S. annual motor-vehicle crash deaths, currently about 40,000 per year, will fall to nearly zero within the next decade (by ~2036) as autonomous/self-driving vehicles spread","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2036-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[5822,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US GDP growth for 2026 will come in far below the 6% the Trump administration is projecting","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2027-01-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[5821,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[5559,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The 2026 hantavirus outbreak will not become a COVID-scale pandemic in the United States","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[4585,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Spencer Pratt will not win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race (June 2 primary / November 3, 2026 runoff)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[3513,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States will resume kinetic military operations against Iran after the May 2026 ceasefire pause","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[3329,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","A successor US-Israel military aid agreement will be struck after the current 10-year MOU expires in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2029-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[3328,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Cory Booker will run for president in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2028-07-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[3327,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The 2026 mid-decade redistricting wave will net Republicans roughly 10-11 US House seats (Democrats down about 10)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[3326,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Additional Arab/Muslim states will sign normalization or peace agreements with Israel once the Iran war ends","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-11","2026-05-11","2027-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-11",10],[6784,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Donald Trump will not be impeached","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-09","2026-05-09","2028-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-09",10],[6783,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Kalshi 'Democrat House and Democrat Senate' balance-of-power contract price will fall from its roughly 43% level","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-09","2026-05-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-09",10],[6782,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans, not Democrats, are favored to hold the US House in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-09","2026-05-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-09",10],[6392,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Democrats will fail to overturn the Virginia Supreme Court ruling, so Virginia will use its 2024 congressional map in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-09","2026-05-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-09",10],[6391,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson will not return to cable news","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-09","2026-05-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-09",10],[4910,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Spending on a single contested U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterms will reach about $50 million","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-09","2026-05-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-09",10],[8047,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Tennessee's newly enacted 2026 congressional redistricting map will survive the legal challenges against it.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[7404,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","A Netflix-Disney merger will not happen","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[7403,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Within 12 to 36 months (by ~May 2029) a charismatic figure will successfully crowdfund a retail-investor acquisition of a real company using social media and AI-generated legal pledges","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2029-05-08","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[7402,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The federal government will lose its case against The New York Times over DEI hiring","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[7401,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will lose his case against OpenAI decisively","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[6780,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The alien disclosure story is false and no actual extraterrestrials will be shown to exist or arrive","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[6591,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Under Tennessee's new map, Memphis and Nashville will elect no Democratic members of Congress in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[6389,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","U.S. cable news will never report that the December-January Iranian protests (and their violence) were organized by Mossad","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[6388,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","It will emerge within weeks or months that the U.S. warship in Project Freedom was badly hit and had to turn around and abandon the operation","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[6387,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Consumer prices driven by oil, aluminum, helium and fertilizer will keep rising in the coming months whether or not the Iran war ends","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[6386,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Republicans will suffer a shellacking (major losses) in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[5557,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Indiana GOP nominee Trevor DeVries will win his Indiana State Senate general election in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[5556,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Indiana GOP nominee Brian Schmutzler will win his Indiana State Senate general election in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[5555,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","A Black Republican woman will win Tennessee's 9th congressional district (Memphis) in the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[4907,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S. federal government will impose safety controls/regulation on advanced AI rather than the accelerationists' no-controls approach, by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[4016,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Additional Republican-led states beyond Tennessee will hold emergency redistricting sessions and enact new congressional maps eliminating their majority-Black districts before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[4015,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Strait of Hormuz blockade will produce actual oil/fuel supply shortages in the United States","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[4013,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms despite Republican gerrymandering","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[3512,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Iran war will end the way Podhoretz prefers - with the Iranian regime decapitated and Iran's nuclear program declared/verified finished (he puts it at 70-30 odds)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[3325,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Florida will gain additional US House seats in the reapportionment following the 2030 census, driven by in-migration from California and New York","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2031-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[3324,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Ilhan Omar will face real consequences over the alleged marriage-to-her-brother immigration fraud - either expulsion from the House or criminal charges","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2027-01-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[3323,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","No leading Democrat (e.g. Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg) will publicly admit that blocking the JetBlue-Spirit merger was a mistake","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-08","2026-05-08",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[3322,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","US airfares will rise following Spirit Airlines' collapse in May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-08","2026-05-08","2027-05-08","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-08",10],[8046,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","uncertain","John Fetterman will not switch his party affiliation to Republican during his current U.S. Senate term.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2029-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[8045,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Xavier Becerra will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-05-13",10],[6779,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","The Trump administration will pardon the imprisoned crypto/Bitcoin figures being advocated for (Ian Freeman, Roman Sterlingov, Roman Storm, and the Samourai Wallet developers)","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6778,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Despite winning more total votes, Democrats will not win more US House seats than Republicans in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6777,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will receive more total votes than Republicans nationally in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6775,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tennessee's new congressional redistricting map will succeed and be in effect for the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6774,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Maryland will move forward with a new mid-decade congressional redistricting map","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6773,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Indiana will move forward with a mid-decade congressional redistricting effort now that the legislators who opposed it lost their primaries","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6385,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. stock market will crash as it catches up to the reality of the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6384,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Donald Trump will finish his second term -- he will not resign or be removed via the 25th Amendment","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6383,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will not be forced out of the Trump administration over his Epstein testimony","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6382,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Regime change in Iran will not be achieved -- the Islamic Republic government will remain in power","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[6380,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","No U.S.-Iran deal to end the war will be reached in the days following May 6, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",10],[5819,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Andes hantavirus cruise-ship outbreak will not develop into a major public-health crisis","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[5345,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not agree to hand over its full stockpile of enriched uranium to the United States","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[5344,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not enact a cap on credit card interest rates in the near term (through 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[4906,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jon Ossoff will win Georgia's November 2026 U.S. Senate race, by roughly two or three points","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[4904,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Federal indictments will be brought against people in the media tied to the Russia-collusion story","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[4903,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No long-form US-Iran deal will be signed within 30 days of the one-page memorandum (i.e., by roughly early June 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-06-06","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[4009,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will inflate attendance for the June 14, 2026 White House UFC event, claiming a crowd far larger than the ~4,300 comped ticket holders by counting general tourists in the area","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-06-14","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[4008,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran's oil facilities will keep operating for months (through at least ~August 2026) without significant or material impact from the US blockade","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07","2026-08-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[3321,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Any Russia-Ukraine settlement will require Ukraine to give up some territory to Russia","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-07","2026-05-07",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-07",11],[8043,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Rahm Emanuel will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[8042,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","James Fishback will receive less than 10 percent of the vote in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-08-18","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,"fl-gov-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[6772,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will win the November 2026 midterms because of redistricting (procedure), not popularity","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[6378,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Israel will push its Lebanon operation beyond southern Lebanon, north of the Litani River","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-06","2026-05-06",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[6377,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will continue its military campaign in Lebanon rather than halting it","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[6376,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. economy will hit an 'economic oblivion' (collapse) by the end of Trump's term in January 2029","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[6051,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Graham Platner will be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[5818,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Megyn Kelly will not withdraw her support for Donald Trump","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[5815,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The US federal income tax will not be eliminated or replaced by tariff revenue during Trump's second term","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[5554,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Rep. Mike Collins will win the 2026 US Senate race in Georgia and become Georgia's next senator","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[4902,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Democrats' court challenge to Tennessee's new 9-0 congressional map will fail to slow or stop it","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[4901,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US and Iran will never get past a memorandum of understanding to a definitive comprehensive deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-06","2026-05-06",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[4583,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Blake Lively's next movie will be produced by her husband Ryan Reynolds","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-06","2026-05-06",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[3319,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","US gas prices will continue to fall from their May 2026 level","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[3318,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","A peace deal ending the Iran war will be signed before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-06","2026-05-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-06",11],[8041,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States will conduct another kinetic strike on Iranian missile facilities before the current conflict ends.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[7399,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Pete Hegseth will be out as Defense Secretary","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[7398,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Anthropic's Claude will be the outside AI model Apple uses for its consumer-facing AI","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[7397,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Apple will acquire an AI company rather than build its own AI capability","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[7396,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Pro-AI lobbying and super PAC spending in the 2026 midterm cycle will far exceed the ~$380 million benchmark the pharmaceutical lobby spent","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[7395,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","GameStop will not be able to complete its $55.5 billion bid to acquire eBay","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[6769,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Redistricting driven by the Supreme Court VRA ruling and DOJ enforcement will move about 12 U.S. House seats from Democrats to Republicans before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[6590,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will take control of the US House in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5812,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will gain at least 20 US House seats in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5553,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Senator John Fetterman will not leave the Democratic Party to become an independent who caucuses with Senate Republicans","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5552,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Young voters will swing away from Republicans and toward Democrats in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5343,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","John Fetterman will not be re-elected as a Democrat — he will not win renomination as Pennsylvania's Democratic Senate nominee in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5342,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Roy Cooper will win the November 2026 North Carolina US Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,"nc-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5341,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Susan Collins will lose the November 2026 Maine Senate race to Graham Platner","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[5340,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-05-11",11],[4001,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Energy/consumer prices will not come down substantially until roughly September 2027 or into 2028, even if the Iran war ended immediately","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2027-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[4000,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi's May 29, 2026 House Oversight appearance will be an unsworn transcribed interview, not an under-oath deposition","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-05-29","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3998,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","The federal criminal case against James Comey will be dismissed","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3997,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi will not sit for an under-oath deposition before the House Oversight Committee for as long as Republicans control the House","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3509,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","A Michael Jackson biopic will gross about $1 billion despite his life story","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3508,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The war with Iran will restart after the current ceasefire/frozen period","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3314,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Nithya Raman will win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral race, defeating incumbent Karen Bass","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3313,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Steve Hilton will not win the 2026 California governor's race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[3311,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Florida's newly redrawn congressional map will produce a net gain of four Republican House seats in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-05","2026-05-05","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-05",11],[8039,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Vivek Ramaswamy will be elected governor of Ohio in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,"oh-gov-2026",null,[],2,"2026-05-05",11],[6588,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Congress will not give Trump the $1.5 trillion defense budget he is proposing, though it will enact some increase","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2027-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[6587,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","US inflation will keep rising and will not come down in the months after May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[6586,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates to bring down inflation","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[6050,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","U.S. airline ticket prices will rise following the May 2026 collapse of Spirit Airlines and the resulting loss of competition","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2027-05-04","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[5810,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","James Comey will never be convicted on the 86-47 seashell-post charges","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[5339,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US international economy airfares will run into the thousands of dollars — roughly $3,500-$4,000 for a regular economy seat — at peak summer 2026 if jet fuel prices stay elevated","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-08-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[4582,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Graham Plattner will be the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maine in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[4579,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Iran war/negotiations will not be wrapped up on May 4, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-05-04","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[3507,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will not end the Iran conflict until he can credibly claim Iran will never have a nuclear weapon (i.e., getting hold of the fissile material or destroying every path to a program)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[3310,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Muslim-centered EPIC City development will be built in Texas despite the state's legal and regulatory challenges","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[3309,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","US airline ticket prices will rise following Spirit Airlines' shutdown because of reduced competition","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-04","2026-05-04",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-04",11],[6768,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Candace Owens will lose the defamation lawsuit brought against her by former Charlie Kirk security chief Brian Harpole","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-05-02","2026-05-02",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-02",11],[4899,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","A two-state solution for Gaza, brokered with Qatar and Turkey, will happen","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-02","2026-05-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-02",11],[4898,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Sean Spicer's book 'Trump 2.0' will make a New York Times bestseller list","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-05-02","2026-05-02","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-02",11],[3308,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Sex robots with lifelike physical movement (working robotics, not just AI software) will arrive within two years, by roughly May 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-02","2026-05-02","2028-05-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-02",11],[8038,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Susan Collins will defeat Graham Platner and retain her Maine U.S. Senate seat in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[8037,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","States carried by the Republican presidential nominee in 2024 will receive a net gain of eight to ten U.S. House seats in the apportionment following the 2030 census.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2030-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[8036,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Kamala Harris will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[7393,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Intel will be one of the worst-performing tech-sector stocks over the six to twelve months after May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2027-05-01","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[7392,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Devil Wears Prada sequel will gross roughly $200 million in its opening week","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[7391,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will either drop his case against OpenAI or lose it; OpenAI will not settle","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[7390,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The FCC will lose in court over its action against Disney/ABC's broadcast licenses","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6766,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Louisiana will redraw its congressional map before the November 2026 midterms in a way that gives Republicans two additional seats","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6585,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The LIV Golf tour will fold after Saudi backers pull their funding","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6584,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The economic disruption caused by the Iran war will not snap back in summer 2026 and will persist at least through the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6374,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Graham Platner will defeat Susan Collins in the November 2026 Maine U.S. Senate general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6373,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","U.S. unemployment will rise sharply, with mass layoffs, in the coming months","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2027-05-01","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6372,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. will suffer an economic collapse (recession and/or major market crash) within roughly the next year","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2027-05-01","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6049,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Graham Platner will win the 2026 Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Maine and be the party's nominee against Susan Collins","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[5809,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Lindsey Graham-led bill to fund the $400 million White House ballroom with taxpayer money will not pass","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[5808,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US gas prices will rise further rather than fall in the period after early May 2026, because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and possible further US military action","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[5551,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","At least seven congressional districts will be redrawn and flipped to Republicans as a result of the Supreme Court racial-gerrymandering ruling and DOJ enforcement in time for the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[5337,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not agree to a deal ending the Iran war in the near term (through roughly June 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[4897,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Anthony Fauci will be sentenced to many years in prison","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[4896,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Anthony Fauci will be criminally indicted on multiple counts","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[4894,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The IRS will not be abolished and the federal income tax will not be eliminated","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[4578,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","US gas prices will not drop immediately when the Iran war ends; elevated prices/inflation from the Strait of Hormuz disruption will persist regardless of when the war ends","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[4577,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The White House Correspondents' Dinner will never be held in the new White House ballroom","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[3992,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Gavin Newsom will obtain discovery in his lawsuit against Fox, including Fox executives' internal communications and depositions","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[3989,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not back down or surrender to Trump's naval blockade","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[3504,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","A new phase of US military operations against Iran will begin shortly after May 1, 2026 rather than the conflict being over","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-05-01","2026-05-01","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[3503,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Israel will achieve total energy independence through fracking two fields (one in the Mediterranean, possibly one on Israeli soil)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-05-01","2026-05-01",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-05-01",11],[6765,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Louisiana's redrawn congressional map will contain no Democrat districts","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[6583,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","US gas prices will rise substantially further after late April 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[6582,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The 2026 Maine US Senate general election will be Graham Platner against Susan Collins","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[6371,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Justice Department's second indictment of James Comey will fizzle out without a conviction","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[6370,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","U.S. gasoline prices will keep rising above their late-April 2026 levels","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[6369,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed indefinitely as Trump maintains his blockade of Iranian vessels","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5807,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US energy/gas prices have not yet peaked and will rise further before coming back down (after the ~$4.34/gal level of late April 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5806,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US GDP growth will decline as a result of the higher gas prices caused by the Iran conflict","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5805,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Iran will not capitulate to Trump's demands (will not 'cry uncle' / surrender) in the current conflict","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5335,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States, not Iran, will be the side that backs down first in the blockade standoff","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5333,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Active US-Iran hostilities will resume within three months (by ~end of July 2026) rather than the naval blockade holding without renewed fighting","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5332,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","By June-July 2026 Japan Airlines and the South Korean carriers will have stopped flying their North America and Europe routes entirely (no flights, so no fuel surcharge)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5331,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US national average gas price will reach $5.00 a gallon within two months (by ~end of June 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[5330,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US national average gas price will reach about $4.50 a gallon by the end of the month (~end of May 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[4893,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will resume kinetic military action (U.S. Navy or Air Force strikes) against Iran to force the regime back to the negotiating table","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[4891,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will capture the roughly 13 additional Southern U.S. House seats made available by the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, via redistricting, ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3986,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democratic-leaning states with constitutional bans on partisan gerrymandering will put referendums on the ballot to amend those bans so they can redraw maps in response","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2028-11-07","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3985,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Following the Supreme Court ruling gutting Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, Republican-controlled state legislatures will draw new congressional maps that dilute Black-majority districts ahead of the 2028 elections, defending them as political rather than racial gerrymanders","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2028-11-07","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3984,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran's oil pipelines and storage will not explode from blockade-caused over-pressurization, as Trump predicted","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3983,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US gasoline and oil prices will keep rising above their late-April 2026 levels (national average of roughly $4.30 a gallon)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3982,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","LIV Golf will collapse/go bankrupt after Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund pulls its funding","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3981,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2027","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3980,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at any point during the remainder of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3501,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Graham Plattner will become the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in 2026 (after Janet Mills suspended her campaign)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-06-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3307,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Removing race as a factor in congressional districting after the Supreme Court's Louisiana Voting Rights Act ruling will result in Republicans winning more House seats","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[3306,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Ron DeSantis will sign Florida's new congressional redistricting map into law on April 30, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-04-30","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-30",11],[6764,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Prominent right-wing personalities will post paid endorsements promoting the Angel Studios 'Animal Farm' film","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6763,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","China will be forced into emergency fuel distribution/rationing levels within days (by ~mid-May 2026) because of the oil disruption","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-05-15","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6762,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will lose the November 2026 midterm elections, failing to hold the U.S. House","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6581,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","US gas and food prices will remain elevated at least through the fall of 2026 because of Iran-war supply-chain disruptions, even if the war ended immediately","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-11-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6579,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Jet fuel prices will rise over the summer of 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6578,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Louisiana seat lost to the Voting Rights Act ruling will be won by a Republican in the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6577,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling will eliminate at least one majority-minority congressional district in Louisiana","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6368,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Oil will reach roughly $140 per barrel in the near term (by about mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6367,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. Senate will not pass a measure blocking U.S. weapons transfers to Israel during the rest of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6366,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened -- the U.S. will fail to restore normal commercial traffic through it","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6365,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Pete Hegseth will not win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",11],[6364,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic U.S. Senate primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-06-09","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[6363,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","James Talarico will hold his lead and win the Texas U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[6048,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Federal welfare/public-benefit fraud enforcement will move to California, with a public federal enforcement action there (by the end of 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[5804,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not be impeached and convicted (removed from office by the Senate) before the end of his term in January 2029","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[5803,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The 25th Amendment will not be invoked against Donald Trump before the end of his term in January 2029","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[5802,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","James Comey will never be convicted at trial on the charges arising from his 86-47 seashell social media post","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-29","2026-04-29",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[4884,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","AI systems will achieve recursive self-improvement (artificial general intelligence / superintelligence perfecting themselves) before the end of calendar year 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[3979,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Following the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling, states will draw new congressional maps that dilute Black voting power and defend them as purely political gerrymanders citing that case","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-29","2026-04-29","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-29",12],[8035,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will not make rail transport work as a bulk alternative route for its petroleum exports during the current blockade.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[8034,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will successfully establish a functioning leadership arrangement during its current political crisis.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[7388,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will settle his lawsuit against OpenAI rather than let it run to a verdict","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[6761,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Within about 10 years (by ~2036), cars will no longer have steering wheels because driving will be fully automated","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2036-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[6362,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Global food prices will rise and food shortages will spread because Gulf fertilizer exports are blocked by the war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[6361,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US-Iran war is far from over; no US-Iran peace deal will be reached in the near term","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[5801,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","David Pakman will not be denaturalized and deported to Argentina by the Trump administration","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[5549,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win a U.S. Senate seat from Michigan in the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[5329,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will return to some level of open military hostilities with Iran after the current ceasefire/limbo","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[5328,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","California's statewide average gasoline price will reach $6.00 a gallon within about a week (by roughly the first week of May 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-05-06","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[5327,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The congressional push to extend US service-member legal protections and benefits to Americans who serve in the IDF will not become law","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[5326,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Cole Allen, the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting suspect, will be sentenced to life in prison","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4890,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Barack Obama will be formally implicated in the Justice Department's conspiracy case surrounding the Comey/Brennan investigation","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4889,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Justice Department will bring a superseding indictment against James Comey adding charges beyond the two threat counts filed in April 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4888,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will defeat Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4887,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4886,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Florida's new DeSantis congressional map will survive its court challenges and remain in force","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-11-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4885,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Florida legislature will pass Governor Ron DeSantis's proposed 24-4 congressional redistricting map","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-05-15","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4882,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Federal prosecutors will bring a superseding indictment adding further charges against Cole Allen, the man arraigned for the attempted assassination of President Trump","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[4576,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","ABC/Disney will not fire or discipline Jimmy Kimmel over his \"expectant widow\" joke about Melania Trump","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[3976,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump DOJ will lose its criminal case against former FBI Director James Comey (the '86 47' seashell-post threat charge)","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[3973,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's approach to Iran will lead to Iran obtaining nuclear weapons","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[3305,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Zohran Mamdani will get his 2% millionaire tax passed before 2027","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-28","2026-04-28","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-28",12],[6576,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The attempted shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner will not halt Trump's decline in approval; his numbers will keep falling","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[6575,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Virginia's new mid-decade congressional redistricting map will be upheld in the courts","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[6574,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will NOT win control of the Senate in the November 2026 midterms (better than long odds but under 50-50)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[4881,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will not agree to a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and removes the US blockade and fleet while pushing nuclear talks off six months to a year","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-27","2026-04-27",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[4880,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will reject Iran's late-April 2026 proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war with nuclear negotiations postponed to a later stage","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[4575,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","ABC/Disney will publicly respond to or act on the Trumps' demands over Jimmy Kimmel's 'expectant widow' remark rather than ignore it","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[4574,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The post-assassination-attempt detente between President Trump and the press will not last; both sides will return to hostile name-calling within days of April 27, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-05-04","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[4573,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Cole Allen, the accused White House Correspondents' Dinner shooter, will not succeed with an insanity defense","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-27","2026-04-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[3304,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Democratic politicians (Bernie Sanders, AOC, Ro Khanna and others) will continue to campaign and appear publicly with Hassan Piker rather than distance themselves from him","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-11-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[3303,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Within two to three months (by roughly late July 2026), prominent voices on the left will be publicly claiming the April 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner assassination attempt on Trump was staged with crisis actors","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-27","2026-04-27","2026-07-27","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-27",12],[4879,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US will launch a military operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-25","2026-04-25",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-25",12],[8033,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Israel will disarm Hezbollah with help from the Lebanese government as part of the current peace process.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[7387,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","SpaceX shares will rise after its IPO","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[7385,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal will clear regulatory review and close, despite a bumpy process","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[7384,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Tucker Carlson will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[7383,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Tucker Carlson will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[6760,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Within the next 20 years (by ~2046) a member of Congress will be physically beaten/assaulted by another member inside Congress","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2046-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[6759,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The SAVE Act will not be passed into law before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[6360,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The elevated US gasoline prices will last longer than six months (i.e., past late October 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2026-10-24","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[6045,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Clarence Thomas will become the longest-serving Supreme Court justice in American history in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[4877,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Pakistan-mediated (Islamabad) US-Iran negotiation track will not produce a peace deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-24","2026-04-24",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[3967,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Virginia Supreme Court will not block the new 10-1 Virginia congressional map approved by the referendum","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-24","2026-04-24","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-24",12],[8032,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","uncertain","Virginia's new 10-to-1 Democratic congressional map will not be changed before the 2026 election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[8030,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Katie Porter will lose the 2026 California gubernatorial election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[6359,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","US inflation will get significantly worse over the rest of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[6358,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not be able to step away from the Iran war; US involvement in the war will continue","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[5800,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be a Democratic blue wave in the November 2026 midterms, with Democrats winning control of the U.S. House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[5322,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Iran-war economic damage will not produce a stock market crash; it will instead be a slow grind on consumers","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2027-04-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[5321,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US will experience rampant and persistent high supply-side inflation through the rest of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[5320,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","US food prices will continue to rise through the rest of 2026 as higher fertilizer and input costs are passed through","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[5319,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will escalate militarily in response to Trump's order to shoot and kill boats mining the Strait of Hormuz, rather than absorbing it without retaliation","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-05-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[4876,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ohio's statewide races in November 2026 will be much closer than the wide Republican margins of the Trump era","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[4570,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Kash Patel's defamation lawsuit against The Atlantic will be dismissed","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[4569,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","U.S. energy and gasoline prices will rise further in the months after April 2026 as the Strait of Hormuz closure works through the global economy","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3958,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The mid-decade redistricting war will end with Democrats netting more US House seats than Republicans (roughly plus four or better) heading into the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3957,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Ghislaine Maxwell will receive a presidential pardon from Trump","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3956,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Virginia Supreme Court will allow the redistricting referendum/constitutional amendment to stand, overturning the lower court's block","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3495,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Most congressional Democrats will vote against Trump's $1.5 trillion defense budget","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3494,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States and Israel will win the war against Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-23","2026-04-23",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3302,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Rep. Ilhan Omar will be brought down - criminally charged/indicted or forced out of her House seat","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[3301,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Steve Hilton will not be elected governor of California in the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-23","2026-04-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-23",12],[8029,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","uncertain","At least one Republican-appointed U.S. Supreme Court justice may retire by the end of the Court's current term.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-06-30","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[8028,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Democrats will control both the U.S. House and Senate at some point within the next six years.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2032-04-22","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6756,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tucker Carlson will not win the Republican presidential primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6755,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Virginia redistricting referendum will pass (the 'yes' side will win the April 2026 vote)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-04-23","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6571,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Tulsi Gabbard will be fired from the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6570,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Iran will not be the side that capitulates to economic pressure from the US naval blockade","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6569,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Iran will not agree to remove all of its nuclear material from the country as part of any deal with the US","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6357,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","A civil war will break out in Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6356,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The global economy will enter a depression as a result of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6355,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will land ground troops in Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6353,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US-Iran war will continue rather than the indefinite ceasefire announced April 21, 2026 ending it","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6352,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Oil will rise to at least $120 per barrel once markets realize the Iran war is not over","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[6044,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Clarence Thomas will surpass William O. Douglas in 2028 to become the longest-serving Supreme Court justice in U.S. history","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[5799,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Kash Patel will be fired as FBI Director","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[5547,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Ken Paxton will win the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff against John Cornyn on May 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-05-26","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,"tx-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[4875,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Five of the seven Indiana state senators targeted by the Republican establishment/consultant-backed primary effort will win their 2026 primaries","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[4872,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal income tax will not be abolished in the foreseeable future — elimination is many decades away","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2046-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[4871,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Federal prosecutors will bring additional indictments beyond the initial 11-count Southern Poverty Law Center indictment against SPLC-linked individuals","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[3952,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's approval on handling the economy will fall into the 20s (below 30%) in national polling by ~mid-2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[3951,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's overall job approval will fall into the 20s (below 30%) in national polling by ~mid-2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[3490,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","After taking the House in the 2026 midterms, House Democrats will impeach Trump","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2029-01-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[3489,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Democrats will not win control of the Senate (will fall short of 51 seats) in the 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[3488,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Republicans will lose control of the US House in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-22","2026-04-22","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-22",12],[8027,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S.-Iran war will not escalate into nuclear war.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[8026,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States will not institute a military draft for the current Iran war.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[8025,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Kamala Harris will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[7382,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Anthropic will have a liquidity event (IPO or sale) at a valuation above $1 trillion","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[7381,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The JD Vance / Witkoff / Kushner Pakistan peace talks on Iran (late April 2026) will produce no agreement or concrete outcome","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[7380,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Kash Patel will leave the job of FBI Director (fired or forced out)","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[7379,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Donald Trump will NOT be impeached by January 1, 2027, contrary to prediction markets pricing it around 70%","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2027-01-01","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6567,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","US gas prices in April 2027 will NOT be lower than they were before the Iran war started (Miller would win the Clay Travis bet)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2027-04-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6350,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will pardon Ghislaine Maxwell","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6349,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Josh Shapiro will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2028-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6348,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Haley Stevens will not win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-08-04","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,"mi-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6347,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","US gasoline prices will not come down soon even if the Iran war ended immediately, because of destroyed Gulf refining and oil/gas infrastructure","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6345,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will stay in the war with Iran rather than extricate itself with a deal","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[6344,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US and Iran will return to war when the two-week ceasefire expires in late April 2026 rather than signing a deal","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5798,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Kash Patel will leave his position as FBI Director (fired or pushed out)","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5796,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will suffer a massive blue-wave defeat in the November 2026 midterms and Democrats will win control of the U.S. House","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5546,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Virginia congressional-redistricting constitutional amendment will pass in the April 21, 2026 referendum (the 'no' side the show backed will lose)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5316,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US food prices will be higher over the six months following April 2026, even if the Iran war ended immediately","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-10-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5315,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US and Iranian representatives will sit down for talks during the week of April 20-26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-04-26","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5314,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Full-scale (total) war between the US/Israel and Iran will not resume in the immediate term (roughly the next few weeks after 2026-04-21)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-05-15","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5313,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will maintain a new, lasting status quo in which it controls transit through the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[5312,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Kim regime will remain in power in North Korea for the rest of Saagar Enjeti's lifetime and beyond","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[4870,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The second round of US-Iran negotiations will not take place in Islamabad before the ceasefire expires on 2026-04-22","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-04-22","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[4868,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will not hold the US Senate in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[4568,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Trump's nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman will be confirmed by the Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[3948,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will extend the Iran ceasefire deadline again in roughly two weeks (around early May 2026) rather than concluding a deal with Iran","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-05-05","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[3487,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Thomas Massie will lose his Kentucky House seat in the 2026 cycle","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[3486,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Rahm Emanuel will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[3485,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Susan Collins will defeat Graham Platner in the November 2026 Maine Senate general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[3484,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate nomination, beating Governor Janet Mills","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,"me-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[3483,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the 2026 Democratic nomination for Michigan's open US Senate seat","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-21","2026-04-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,"mi-sen-2026",null,[],1,"2026-04-21",12],[8022,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will remain in political transition during 2027.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2027-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",12],[6566,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The Trump Justice Department's Miami prosecution of former DNI James Clapper will not succeed","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",12],[6563,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will order one more major military escalation/bombing campaign against Iran before the war ends","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[6562,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The US and Iran will ultimately reach an agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[6041,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Iran will be forced to shut in oil wells within about a week (by roughly April 27, 2026) because storage capacity runs out under the U.S. naval blockade","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-04-27","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[5795,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's promised 'great healthcare plan' will not be enacted into law in the coming weeks (by roughly mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[5794,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not be successfully impeached and removed from office over the articles of impeachment filed by House Democrats","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-20","2026-04-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[5793,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Kash Patel's $250 million defamation lawsuit against The Atlantic will fail (go nowhere)","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-20","2026-04-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[5544,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will rule against the conservative/administration position on birthright citizenship, i.e. it will uphold citizenship for U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[5543,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The House Republican proposal to extend Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians will not become law","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[5309,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not accept a Gaza-style ceasefire/framework arrangement imposed on it by the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-20","2026-04-20",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[4865,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will lose their US Senate majority in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[4863,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No US-Iran deal will be signed in the near term (none by the end of May 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[4862,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not promptly send a delegation to a second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad (no Iranian delegation there before the end of April 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[4566,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Ryan Reynolds will testify as a witness at the Blake Lively-Justin Baldoni trial","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-05-19","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[4565,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Justice Samuel Alito will not announce his retirement from the Supreme Court in October 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-10-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[4564,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[3300,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2026-06-09","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[3299,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Mamdani's five promised city-owned grocery stores will not all be built","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-20","2026-04-20","2029-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-20",13],[6343,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","JD Vance will not win the Republican presidential primary in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-18","2026-04-18","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-18",13],[6340,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced in April 2026 will not hold","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-18","2026-04-18","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-18",13],[6339,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not agree to a deal giving up its entire uranium enrichment program","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-18","2026-04-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-18",13],[6338,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will resume attacking Iran rather than the April 2026 ceasefire leading to peace","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-18","2026-04-18","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-18",13],[6040,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick will go to prison over the FEMA funds case","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-18","2026-04-18",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-18",13],[3939,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US soldiers will not enter Iran to jointly collect and remove Iranian nuclear material alongside Iranian forces","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-18","2026-04-18","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-18",13],[8021,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Israel will conduct renewed military strikes against Hamas's rebuilding efforts in Gaza.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7378,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Allbirds' AI rebrand (Newbird) will fail and the company will not survive","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7377,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","About a dozen companies will announce Allbirds-style pivots or rebrands to AI within 90 days (by roughly mid-July 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-07-16","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7376,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Trump administration will drop its legal fight against Anthropic","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7375,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The proposed United-American Airlines merger will not happen","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7374,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will kill the io hardware effort and take an approximately $6 billion write-off","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7373,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Anthropic will complete its IPO before OpenAI does","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7372,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","SpaceX's offering will be the biggest IPO of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7371,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Amazon will offer an upgraded Prime tier bundling a phone and home connectivity, competing with AT&T, Verizon and Comcast","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7370,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Amazon will launch its own phone","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7369,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","uncertain","The Trump administration will not fire Jerome Powell","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[7368,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Several Republican senators will publicly come out in favor of Jerome Powell remaining on the Fed Board of Governors","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6752,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump will not be impeached before the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6751,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Donald Trump will not be a candidate in the 2028 presidential race, so both parties will hold contested presidential primaries","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6750,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","ICE officer Gregory Morgan Jr., charged with assault by Minnesota prosecutors, will be arrested and extradited rather than shielded","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6337,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Catholic voters will not give Republicans the ~55% share they gave Trump in 2024 in the next national election (the November 2026 midterms)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6336,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US-Iran war will not end with the April 2026 ceasefire; US military involvement against Iran will continue","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6333,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Israel will not honor the 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire that began April 16, 2026 and will continue military strikes in southern Lebanon during it","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-04-26","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[6039,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Tom Steyer will not actually have federal ICE agents arrested (he is bluffing)","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[5792,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will remain president until January 2029 unless he dies or is physically incapacitated","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[5542,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Two Republicans will not both advance out of California's 2026 top-two gubernatorial primary, now that Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-06-02","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[5308,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[4562,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Haitian TPS holder charged with the hammer murder of a convenience-store clerk in Fort Myers, Florida will be found guilty","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[4561,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Eric Swalwell will face criminal charges","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[4560,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The House-passed bill extending Temporary Protected Status for Haitians will not clear the U.S. Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[3938,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Justice Clarence Thomas or Justice Samuel Alito will retire from the Supreme Court at the end of the current term (summer 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[3480,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Lebanese government and Lebanese Armed Forces will fail to carry out the enforcement steps the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire requires of them (they will not disarm Hezbollah)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[3479,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Iranian regime will never acknowledge that it lost the war to the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[3478,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States will secure a military victory over the Iranian regime","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[3298,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Abraham Accords will be expanded over summer 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-09-22","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[3297,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Gas prices will come back down before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-17","2026-04-17","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-17",13],[8020,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","California's proposed wealth-tax ballot measure will pass.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[8019,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","New York City will lower the proposed second-home-tax threshold from $5 million toward $1 million and ultimately broaden the tax beyond second homes.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2029-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[6749,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The U.S. will launch a full military invasion/operation in Cuba within about one to two months (by ~mid-June 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-06-16","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[6561,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Trump will not impose severe new tariffs on China in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[6332,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Ro Khanna's proposed ban on US gasoline exports to other countries will not be enacted","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[6331,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The price of oil will rise above $100 per barrel during the remainder of 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[6330,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","US inflation will keep rising above the 4% recorded in March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[4858,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will win the Texas U.S. Senate race in the November 2026 general election, and win by a wide margin","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[4857,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congressional Republican leadership will come back with a reconciliation bill that pairs a tax cut with a federal AI moratorium preempting state AI laws","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[4856,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Florida legislature will pass Governor DeSantis's AI Bill of Rights in the special session he called for April 28 - May 1, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-05-01","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[4559,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Blake Lively v. Justin Baldoni case will go to trial rather than settle, beginning around May 17, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-05-17","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[4558,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Iran war will result in domestic terrorism inside the United States that kills Americans","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3935,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","LIV Golf will shut down after Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund stops funding it","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3934,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Gulf sovereign wealth funds beyond Saudi Arabia -- Abu Dhabi/UAE and Qatar -- will pull back from investing in the United States and shift that money to China, Europe and elsewhere","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3932,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","China will begin supplying Iran with weapons and intelligence","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3931,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Russia will begin supplying Iran with weapons and intelligence","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3930,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will use the ceasefire period to rebuild its damaged military capability and keep producing drones","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3929,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will not leave office at the end of his term (January 2029)","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3928,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","It will take at least about six months (i.e., until roughly October 2026 or later) for the US and Iran to reach a significant deal","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-10-16","2026-07-30","NO",0,1,"early",121,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3477,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","No Jewish candidate will win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3476,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States will have won its war against Iran by July 4, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-07-04","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3475,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Trump-appointed planning commission will approve (rubber-stamp) the Freedom Arch plan at its April 16, 2026 vote","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3474,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump's 250th-anniversary 'Freedom Arch' will not be built before the July 4, 2026 anniversary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-07-04","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3296,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New York City's pied-a-terre tax will drive down the prices of NYC luxury homes valued over $5 million","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2027-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3295,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Eric Swalwell's wife will leave him","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3291,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will be forced back to the negotiating table with the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-16","2026-04-16","2026-12-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[3290,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","John Fetterman will leave the Democratic Party and publicly declare himself a Republican","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-16","2026-04-16",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-16",13],[6748,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","China will not make a military move on Taiwan (through its previously reported 2027 target date) because the loss of Gulf energy access leaves it unable to","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6329,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Thomas Massie will win his 2026 Republican congressional primary in Kentucky","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6328,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not publicly admit that the United States lost the war with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6327,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","There will be no regime change in Iran as a result of this war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6326,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump's threatened US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a bluff and will not be effectively enforced","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6325,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The direct talks between the Lebanese government and Israel will produce no progress and will not end Israel's military campaign in Lebanon","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6036,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6035,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Democrats will force another federal government shutdown when funding expires September 30, 2026, shortly before the November 2026 elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-10-01","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6034,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Senate Democrats will not vote to fund ICE again through the remainder of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[6033,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Eric Swalwell will face criminal prosecution","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[5307,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its next policy meeting because of high inflation from the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[5306,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US and Iran will not conclude a comprehensive negotiated deal within two to three weeks of April 15, 2026 (i.e., not by about May 6, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-05-06","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[5305,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US ground forces surged to the Middle East will end up being used in combat against Iran rather than serving only as a deterrent","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[4855,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will resolve the fiscal fight by falling back on an omnibus spending package and jamming it through rather than passing appropriations in regular order","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[4854,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The effort by Speaker Mike Johnson and AI-company allies to attach AI-industry protections to reconciliation or other must-pass legislation will fail","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[4555,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","It will come out that Senator Ruben Gallego knew about Eric Swalwell's sexual misconduct","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3473,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will win the war against Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3470,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Rubio-convened Israel-Lebanon ambassadorial talks will not produce an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15",null,"2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3289,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Eric Swalwell will not cooperate with the FBI over the misconduct allegations against him","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3288,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","A Democrat will win the November 2026 California governor's race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3287,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Joe Biden will not run for president again","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3284,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iran war will end, with an end expected by roughly summer 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-09-22","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3283,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will return to nuclear negotiations with the United States","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[3282,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Florida will eliminate its property tax","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-15","2026-04-15","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-15",13],[8017,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Justice Department will investigate the Biden administration's targeting of anti-abortion activists and prosecute any violations it finds.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[7366,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery will eventually be approved and close despite European and other regulatory pushback","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[7365,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Nancy Pelosi will endorse Tom Steyer for California governor","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[7363,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Tom Steyer will be elected governor of California in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[6746,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Another high-profile political assassination will occur in the United States by September 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[6745,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Eric Swalwell will never be criminally prosecuted over the sexual-assault allegations against him","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[6560,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The 2028 Republican presidential nominee will be neither JD Vance nor Marco Rubio","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[6324,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Saikat Chakrabarti will move into first place in the race for Nancy Pelosi's California House seat ahead of the June 2, 2026 primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-06-02","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[6323,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Oil and gas prices will be higher, not lower, by the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[5789,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","U.S. food prices will rise further as fertilizer prices rise","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[5788,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The economy, not the Epstein files, will be the primary issue determining the November 2026 midterm results","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[5787,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will publicly declare the Iran war over sometime before summer 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-06-20","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[5304,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Mass nuclear proliferation will occur within the next 25 years (by roughly 2051), with multiple additional states acquiring nuclear weapons","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2051-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[5303,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not act to authorize or halt the US naval blockade of Iran despite being back in session","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[4853,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not back down from or lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[4851,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Pope Leo will not take part in commemorating the United States' 250th anniversary on July 4, 2026, and will be in Italy instead","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-07-04","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[4850,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Republican-controlled Senate will not confirm E.J. Antoni to the post President Trump nominated him for (Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[4849,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","OMB Director Russ Vought will appear before the House Budget Committee on Thursday, April 16, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-04-16","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[3924,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will end up capitulating to Iran's core demands, accepting an outcome in which Iran is permitted to enrich uranium","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[3923,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's refiled defamation lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal will be dismissed again","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[3922,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will refile an amended defamation complaint against the Wall Street Journal after the dismissal of his Epstein birthday-letter lawsuit","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[3281,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-14","2026-04-14",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[3280,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will ease up on deportations for optics between April 2026 and the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-14","2026-04-14","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-14",13],[8016,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will not accept the current U.S. demands to end enrichment, dismantle its nuclear program, return enriched uranium, de-escalate regionally, stop funding proxies, and fully open the Strait of Hormuz.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[6558,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Marco Rubio will not be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[6557,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump and the Republicans will suffer a big defeat in the November 2026 midterm elections, assuming the election is fair","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[6032,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick will go to jail for stealing FEMA money","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[6030,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will stop Iran's oil exports, halting the ghost-fleet tanker traffic and Iran's oil revenue","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[5784,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","U.S. gasoline prices will be even higher in summer 2026 than they were in mid-April 2026 because of Trump's Strait of Hormuz blockade","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[5783,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will lose the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[5541,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Hennepin County / local Minnesota prosecution of the people who assaulted TPUSA journalist Savannah Hernandez on April 11, 2026 will end in only a 'slap on the wrist' — no meaningful jail time for the charged assailants","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[5301,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US gasoline prices will stay at or above roughly $4/gallon for at least the next couple of months (through ~mid-June 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-06-15","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[5300,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Netanyahu will restart the war against Iran and will drag the United States back into it","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4847,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will not back down from his public fight with Pope Leo XIV and will keep publicly attacking the Pope after April 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4553,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Additional women will come forward publicly with accusations against Eric Swalwell after April 13, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4551,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republicans will hold their US Senate majority after the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4550,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republicans will lose control of the US House in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4549,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The US Navy will not stop or interdict Chinese-flagged vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports under the blockade announced April 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4548,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","President Trump will not apologize for posting the AI image depicting himself as Jesus","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[4547,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Iran will never agree to end all uranium enrichment as a term of a deal with the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[3467,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Republicans will be beaten badly in the November 2026 midterms, with Democrats winning control of the House","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[3279,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","More allegations of misconduct against Eric Swalwell will surface after April 13, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[3278,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel will end up in custody, like Maduro, rather than being killed","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[3277,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Byron Donalds will be elected the next governor of Florida, succeeding Ron DeSantis","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[3276,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Under new prime minister Peter Magyar, Hungary will open its borders and begin admitting large numbers of migrants","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-13","2026-04-13",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-13",14],[6744,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","The HBO Harry Potter television series will not end up happening (will be cancelled/never released)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-11","2026-04-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-11",14],[6320,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump's job approval rating will fall below 30% into the 20s","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-11","2026-04-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-11",14],[6319,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","By 2028 Tucker Carlson will be far more popular than Donald Trump within the Republican Party","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-11","2026-04-11","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-11",14],[6318,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The remaining withheld Epstein files will not be released","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-11","2026-04-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-11",14],[4845,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Any meaningful deal resolving the Iran war will be struck directly between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing during Trump's state visit to China in mid-May 2026, not at the Islamabad talks","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-11","2026-04-11","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-11",14],[8015,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will probably reject the current European offer to surrender its nuclear materials and control of the Strait of Hormuz.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-04-24","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[7362,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will merge Tesla into SpaceX (with xAI/X) as a combined company","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[7361,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Trump's cabinet will not invoke the 25th Amendment against him","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6743,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Senate will not muster the two-thirds supermajority needed to convict and remove Trump","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6742,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The House will vote to impeach Donald Trump after the new Congress is seated on January 3, 2027","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6741,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Marco Rubio, not JD Vance, will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6740,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will sweep both the House and the Senate in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6556,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Congress will hold a public hearing for Jeffrey Epstein's victims in 2027","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6555,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of Congress in the November 2026 midterms and take control in 2027","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6316,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Republicans will lose the November 2026 midterms badly and Democrats will win by a large margin","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6315,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Susan Collins will be defeated in Maine's November 2026 US Senate election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6313,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Repairing the damaged oil and gas facilities of the US Gulf allies will take two to five years","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2031-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6312,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will not withdraw its military bases from the Gulf states as demanded in Iran's 10-point plan","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6311,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will not pay reparations to Iran as demanded in Iran's 10-point plan","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6310,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will never stop enriching uranium","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6027,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The four British nationals arrested by Border Patrol after crossing illegally from Canada into Maine will not be released into the United States","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6026,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The United States will beat China back to the Moon (a US crewed lunar landing will occur before any Chinese crewed lunar landing)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2030-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[5299,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Republicans will suffer major losses in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[5298,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Elissa Slotkin will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[5297,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US-Iran war will end in a settlement resembling Iran's ten-point plan, including a new status quo giving Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2027-04-10","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[4843,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Eric Bolling will be asked to take a 60-to-90-day hiatus from his 4 p.m. show to go into the Trump administration as an advisor","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[4842,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not accept a full unconditional surrender (the US 15-point program) in the April 2026 Islamabad negotiations","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[4841,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US-Iran negotiations begun in Islamabad in April 2026 will not produce a formal written agreement between the two parties","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[4546,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Kristi Noem will not remain in her current government post as special envoy for the Shield of the Americas","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[4545,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Kristi Noem and Brian Noem will separate and divorce within six months (by roughly October 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-10-10","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[4544,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Brian Noem, husband of Kristi Noem, will publicly announce a gender transition within six months (by roughly October 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-10-10","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[3913,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire will collapse and open fighting will resume within weeks","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[3912,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Mark Carney's Liberals will secure a majority government in Canada after the mid-April 2026 elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-04-13","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[3911,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil prices will keep rising above the roughly $101 per barrel level reached on April 10, 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[3274,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Tucker Carlson will not correct or retract his claim that Netanyahu's Beirut strike broke the Iran ceasefire","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-10","2026-04-10",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-10",14],[6309,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Control of the US House of Representatives will flip in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[6308,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not enter a joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[6307,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Netanyahu will continue Israel's military campaign and land seizure in southern Lebanon rather than end the war","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[6306,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will now pursue the development of a nuclear weapon as a result of this war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[6305,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","A real ceasefire between the United States and Iran will not be achieved","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-04-22","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[5782,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The economy — specifically whether promised lower prices materialized — will be the main issue in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[5781,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Epstein files will not be a significant voting issue in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[5296,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will let Israel continue its military campaign rather than restrain Israel in order to preserve the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire arrangement","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-04-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[5294,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Israel will not back off its bombing campaign in Lebanon in the days following 2026-04-09","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-04-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[5293,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Strait of Hormuz will end up under a new status quo rather than reverting to the pre-war free-and-open passage regime, because no US military operation will retake control of it","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[5292,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US retail gasoline prices will not fall back to the pre-war national average of about $2.80/gallon in the near term","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[4840,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US and Iran will not produce a signed formal agreement/surrender document ending the 2026 war","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[4543,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Israel and candidates' acceptance of AIPAC money will be a live campaign issue in both parties' nominating contests in the next presidential election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[4539,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","President Trump will not sign the Dignity Act into law","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[3904,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US-Iran ceasefire will formally collapse and cease to exist","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-04-22","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[3902,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Mark Carney will remain Prime Minister with a secure majority government until the next Canadian general election around 2029","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2029-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[3901,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Canada's Liberal Party will win the elections held within roughly the next week (mid-April 2026), giving Prime Minister Mark Carney a majority government","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[3273,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The bombing in the US/Israel-Iran war will stop within about three months (by roughly mid-July 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-09","2026-04-09","2026-07-09","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-09",14],[6739,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tucker Carlson will publicly thank or credit Trump for calling the Iran ceasefire","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6303,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will attempt to assassinate the Pakistani officials mediating between the US and Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6302,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will act aggressively to prevent a US-Iran deal from being concluded","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6301,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Both the US and Iran will use the two-week ceasefire to rearm and resupply rather than de-escalate","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-04-22","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6300,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will not remove its military bases from the Gulf countries as Iran demands","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6299,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will not pay reparations to Iran for the war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6298,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the announced two-week ceasefire","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-04-22","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[6024,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The US will not send hundreds of thousands of ground troops to invade and occupy Iran for years","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[5778,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not anoint JD Vance as his chosen successor for 2028; he will back someone else","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[5777,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will remain in office until the scheduled end of his term in January 2029 — he will not be removed by impeachment or the 25th Amendment","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[5539,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The United States will not withdraw from NATO; US participation in the alliance will continue","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[4839,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will never agree to the Iranians' 10-point plan (reparations, US military withdrawal from the Middle East, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz) as the terms of a deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[4838,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will reach a deal with Iran and move on from the war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[4837,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","A Trump-Iran agreement will not be submitted to the US Senate for approval the way the Obama Iran deal was, as Lindsey Graham is demanding","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[4836,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","OMB Director Russ Vought will appear before the House and Senate to discuss the budget during the week of roughly April 13, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-04-17","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[4537,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Justice Samuel Alito will retire from the Supreme Court while Trump is president","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[3271,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will be shown to be right that the Iranian ceasefire statement CNN published was fake","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[3270,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Multiple Middle East peace deals will be signed by around July 4, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-08","2026-04-08","2026-07-04","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-08",14],[8014,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","John Ossoff will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[8013,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will refuse the current offer to open the Strait of Hormuz and surrender its nuclear materials in exchange for a permanent ceasefire.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[6297,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump will take no action against the Israeli journalist who first published details about the missing US airman in Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[6296,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US and Israel will not stop attacking Iranian civilian infrastructure","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[6295,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The proposed 45-day US-brokered ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran will not take effect","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-05-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[6294,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will retaliate in kind for US/Israeli strikes on its civilian and energy infrastructure by striking civilian/energy infrastructure in Israel and the Gulf states","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[6293,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Gasoline prices in Los Angeles will rise to $8 per gallon","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[5538,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Dignity/Dignidad Act immigration bill will not be enacted","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2027-01-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[5536,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","President Trump will not use a nuclear weapon against Iran in the current (April 2026) Iran conflict","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-30","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[5290,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Iran or its allies will launch suicide-drone attacks attempting to hit Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline infrastructure","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[5289,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US will not launch a ground operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[5287,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","As US conventional munitions run low, the US will escalate the Iran war to either unconventional (nuclear) weapons or ground troops","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[5286,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US will begin its threatened bombing of Iran's power plants at 8 PM Eastern on Trump's deadline (April 7, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-08","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4835,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran's civilization will not be destroyed on the night of April 7, 2026, despite President Trump's threat that a whole civilization will die that night","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-08","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4833,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US/Israeli campaign against Iran will shift from degrading Iran's military to striking Iran's civilian infrastructure (electrical grid and oil/energy infrastructure) aimed at total state collapse, by late April 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4832,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will go ahead with major military strikes on Iran after President Trump's 8 p.m. ET April 7, 2026 deadline expires, rather than reaching an off-ramp","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-08","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4535,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Trump's \"a whole civilization will die tonight\" Truth Social post will be raised as a question to candidates at the Republican presidential primary debates","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4534,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine will not authorize U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants that have civilians, including children, gathered outside them","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4533,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Iran will not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week window proposed by Pakistan's prime minister","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-21","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[4532,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","President Trump will back down from his 8 p.m. April 7, 2026 ultimatum to Iran rather than carry out the threatened destruction of Iranian civilization, declaring instead that the Iranians have become reasonable and calling the deadline off","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-08","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3888,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will keep extending his Iran ultimatum deadline rather than executing it, pushing it from April 7, 2026 to roughly April 21 and then into May and July 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-07-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3887,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not agree to any deal or ceasefire with the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3885,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not hold talks with Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3884,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not agree to a ceasefire with the United States/Israel","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3462,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Democratic transitions in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran will not all happen by the end of Trump's presidency","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3461,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump's job approval will not rise above 40% for the rest of his presidency","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2029-01-20","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3269,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","A movie about the rescue of the downed US F-15 airman in Iran will be made by a major studio or streamer (Netflix, Amazon or similar)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-07","2026-04-07",null,"2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[3268,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will not drop a nuclear weapon on Iran on the night of April 7, 2026 (his 8 p.m. deadline)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-07","2026-04-07","2026-04-08","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-07",14],[8012,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran's current regime will remain in power through the next few weeks.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2026-04-27","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[6553,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will not be impeached while Republicans control Congress (i.e., not before the new Congress is seated in January 2027)","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[6021,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","A movie will be made about the April 2026 rescue of the downed US F-15 crew inside Iran","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[5285,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not return the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war status quo of unrestricted free passage","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2027-04-06","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[5283,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","A permanent new status quo will take hold at the Strait of Hormuz, imposing a lasting premium on energy and goods moving through the region","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2027-04-06","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[5282,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Millions of Americans will lose their jobs as a result of the energy shock from the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[5280,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US average gasoline prices will remain above $3 per gallon, hovering near current (~$4.11) levels, for at least the next few months","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2026-09-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",14],[4831,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not reach a deal with the US by President Trump's 8pm April 7, 2026 deadline, and Trump will escalate strikes on Iran once it expires","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2026-04-08","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[4531,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","uncertain","Rahm Emanuel will not win the Democratic presidential nomination","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2028-08-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[4529,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Gavin Newsom will adopt Tim Walz-style camouflage/tough-guy imagery as he runs for president","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2028-11-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[4528,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","President Trump will not impose nationwide E-Verify","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[4527,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will rule that US-born children of illegal immigrants (\"anchor babies\") are entitled to birthright citizenship and may stay in the country","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[4526,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The roughly 10 million-plus illegal immigrants who entered under Biden will not be removed from the United States; the large majority will still be in the country at the end of Trump's term","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[3267,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iran war will end in an Iranian defeat followed by new Middle East peace deals","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-06","2026-04-06",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[3266,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The US will launch major strikes on Iran's power plants and bridges on Tuesday, April 7, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-06","2026-04-06","2026-04-08","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-06",15],[6738,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tulsi Gabbard will be removed from her post in the Trump administration (fired/forced out as Director of National Intelligence)","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-04","2026-04-04",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-04",15],[4830,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Trump administration will not hit Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's target of cutting the federal deficit from 6% of GDP to 3% of GDP","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-04","2026-04-04","2028-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-04",15],[3875,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iranians will not rise up in mass anti-regime protests welcoming Trump and Netanyahu to run Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-04","2026-04-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-04",15],[7360,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Trump's executive order restricting mail-in voting ahead of the 2026 election will be struck down in court","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6737,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule against Trump's executive order and leave birthright citizenship in place for children of illegal immigrants and birth tourists","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6736,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Marco Rubio will be a candidate for president in the 2028 election cycle","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6552,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be someone with a strong record of opposition to US military meddling in the Middle East","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6551,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","US ground troops will go into Iran (contrary to the developing consensus that they will not)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6292,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US war with Iran will last longer than the two-to-three more weeks Trump told the American people it would take","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6291,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on drug companies will result in Americans paying more for prescription drugs, not lower drug prices","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-03","2026-04-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6290,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","US gasoline prices will rise further from their early-April 2026 level of about $4 a gallon","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6289,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration in the birthright citizenship case","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6288,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6019,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Senate confirmation vote on Trump's next Attorney General will be essentially party-line, with no more than one or two Democrats voting yes","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6018,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trump's next Attorney General nominee will be confirmed by the Senate, with Republicans supplying at least 51 votes","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6017,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The US bombing campaign against Iran will last only a couple more weeks (through roughly mid-to-late April 2026), not months or a year longer","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[4525,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Blake Lively will lose her remaining retaliation claim against Justin Baldoni","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-05-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[3873,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Fired Attorney General Pam Bondi will still sit for her April 14, 2026 House Oversight Committee deposition on the Epstein files","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2026-04-14","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[3872,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Congress will not pass authorization for Trump's White House golden ballroom, leaving the project blocked","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-03","2026-04-03","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-03",15],[6735,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Supreme Court will rule against Trump on birthright citizenship, upholding citizenship for those born in the US","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[6550,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Trump's remark that the federal government 'can't take care of daycare' and that states should raise taxes to pay for it will be used in many Democratic campaign ads","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[6287,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","European allies will not send their own forces to the Strait of Hormuz to seize and reopen it as Trump demanded","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[6286,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Public opposition to the US war with Iran will keep growing as the war continues","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-07-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5776,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The November 2026 midterms will be a disaster for the Republican Party, which will lose its House majority","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5775,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will not repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act during Trump's second term","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5533,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The United States will not withdraw from NATO","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5278,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not unilaterally walk away from the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-09-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5277,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US consumer spending will decline because of high gas prices and inflation","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5276,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US gasoline will remain around $4 per gallon for at least a few more months (through ~mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-07-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5275,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US economy will enter a recession","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2027-06-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5273,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not pay Iran's Strait of Hormuz transit toll in the near term (through ~mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-09-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5270,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Oil-importing countries will pay Iran's Strait of Hormuz transit toll and cut shipping deals with Iran (including non-dollar settlement) rather than force the strait open militarily","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5269,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US national average gasoline price will hit an all-time high within weeks (by ~mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5268,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US average retail diesel price will reach $6.00 per gallon","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[5267,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US-Iran war will not be over within the two weeks Trump promised (i.e., fighting will still be ongoing after ~April 16, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-04-16","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[4829,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Tina Peters's seven felony convictions in Colorado will ultimately be overturned","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[4828,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[4827,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ActBlue, potentially including its former head, will face federal criminal indictments over its handling of donations","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[3871,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States and Israel will continue to escalate the war in Iran rather than de-escalate","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[3864,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels by the end of May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[3863,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will issue a federal pardon for Pam Bondi","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[3862,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi will try to get out of her subpoenaed April 14, 2026 House Oversight Committee deposition","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-04-14","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[3861,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","FBI Director Kash Patel will be fired soon (within roughly the next few months after April 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-02","2026-04-02","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-02",15],[8011,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Russia and China will block the proposed U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[8010,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S.-Iran war will end before it reaches six months in duration.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-08-28","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[6734,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump's executive order limiting mail-in voting will survive court challenges enough to be in effect for the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[6285,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not nationalize US oil and gas","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[6284,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Trump administration will not implement oil and gas export controls","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[6283,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","It will take years to rebuild the Middle East oil and gas infrastructure destroyed in the Iran war, even if the bombing stopped immediately","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[6282,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not unilaterally end the war and pull the US out of Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[6281,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US war with Iran will not be over within Trump's stated four-to-six-week timeline (i.e. not by roughly mid-May 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-05-15","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[5774,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's job approval rating will not fall into the 20s before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[5532,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will issue a narrow 'split the baby' compromise ruling in the birthright-citizenship case rather than a clean ruling for either side","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-06-30","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[4825,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's 1 April 2026 address to the nation will address the NATO allies' refusal to support U.S. operations","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[3859,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will not prevail on appeal of the injunction blocking the White House ballroom construction","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[3858,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will appeal Judge Leon's injunction blocking the White House ballroom to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[3857,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Supreme Court will rule against Trump's executive order ending birthright citizenship (Trump v. Barbara)","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-07-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[3856,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Iran war will not end in the immediate term (no ceasefire or end of hostilities in early-to-mid April 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-04-15","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[3262,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will hint in his April 1, 2026 address to the nation that the US will re-examine its NATO relationship","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[3261,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New Middle East peace deals will be signed before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-04-01","2026-04-01","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-04-01",15],[8009,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States and its allies will take major action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, capture Kharg Island, and economically throttle Iran during the current conflict.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[8008,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Abdul El-Sayed will win the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-08-04","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,"mi-sen-2026",null,[],10,"2026-08-04",15],[7359,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Nexstar-Tegna merger will not be blocked","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[7358,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","New York Magazine will be sold to a new owner","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[7357,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Vox Media will be broken up, leaving a standalone podcast-focused company","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[7356,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Trump will put US ground troops into Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[7355,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Pete Hegseth will be out as Secretary of Defense by the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6733,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trading card game booster packs will be banned as gambling as a knock-on effect of the loot box precedent","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6732,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Valve will lose the New York and Washington lawsuits and video-game loot boxes will be legally determined to be gambling","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6731,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tyler Robinson will be acquitted in the Charlie Kirk assassination trial","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6280,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Moderate Republicans will not break ranks over the GOP plan to cut federal health-care spending to fund the Iran war; they will all fall in line","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6279,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will not pull the US out of the war with Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6278,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump's ground operation in Iran will be an attempt to take Kharg Island","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6277,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, despite administration denials","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[5771,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US military operations in Iran will not be finished within the promised three-to-four-week timeline and will continue past week five (past roughly early April 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-04-10","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[5770,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be no consequences for Trump over building the White House ballroom without the normal historical/architectural review process","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[5266,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win the November 2026 midterms by a decisive, non-marginal margin","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[4824,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's 31 March 2026 executive order on mail-in ballots will be challenged in court almost immediately","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[4823,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Federal 'amnesty' for artificial intelligence (preemption shielding AI from regulation) will not be enacted","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[4822,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ICE agents will be sent to polling places for the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[4821,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Brent crude oil will rise substantially above $118 per barrel after 31 March 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[3853,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Roughly 20% of Qatar's LNG production (about 20% of global LNG supply) will remain knocked out for the next three to five years, i.e. into 2029-2031","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2029-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[3848,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's job approval will fall into the 20s (below 30%) in a major national poll by mid-2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-31","2026-03-31","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-31",15],[6548,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","US inflation will spike to 2022-style levels by around Labor Day 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-09-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[6547,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The House Republicans' eight-week DHS funding extension that includes ICE will not pass the Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[6546,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","There will be a fourth nationwide No Kings protest (No Kings 4)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-30","2026-03-30",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[6014,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Congress will fund ICE and CBP for the next ten years through the reconciliation process","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-08-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[6013,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The House-passed bill funding all of DHS (including ICE and full CBP) will go nowhere and will not become law","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[6012,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Democrats will never again vote to fund ICE - not in a year, five years, or ten years","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[5769,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","No new Trump health care plan will be enacted while Trump is in office","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[5264,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened and no US-Iran peace deal will be reached within the week after March 30, 2026 (by roughly April 6, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-04-06","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[4820,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","NATO allies will not provide naval support to the United States in the Red Sea / Suez shipping lane","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[4819,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will not pass the Save America Act","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[4523,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tiger Woods will seek treatment/help following his March 2026 DUI arrest","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[3458,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Iranian regime will fall through internal collapse (elite infighting/coup), not through a mass popular uprising or a formal surrender","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-30","2026-03-30",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[3259,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Senators will not give up any of their two-week Easter recess to return to Washington and vote to end the DHS shutdown (recess ending ~mid-April 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-30","2026-03-30","2026-04-13","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-30",15],[4521,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Alex Murdaugh will not win a new trial in his double-murder case through his Becky Hill jury-tampering appeal","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-03-29","2026-03-29",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-29",15],[3842,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","The Iran war will push the world into a global recession","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-29","2026-03-29","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-29",15],[3840,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Brent crude will rise to near $125-$130 per barrel during the week of March 29, 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-29","2026-03-29","2026-04-04","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-29",15],[6730,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Marco Rubio will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[6275,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US is going to put ground troops into Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-28","2026-03-28",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[3839,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S. Senate will not return to Washington for roughly two weeks (until about the second week of April 2026) despite House Republicans demanding they come back to vote on DHS funding","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2026-04-13","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[3838,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","No one will file a legal challenge to Trump's executive order redirecting appropriated DHS money to pay TSA agents","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-28","2026-03-28",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[3837,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","The March 28, 2026 No Kings protest will be the largest No Kings mobilization to date, exceeding the October 2025 protest","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[3836,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Turnout for the March 28, 2026 No Kings protests will total 15 to 20 million people nationwide","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[3831,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Iran war will last far longer than the two-to-four weeks Rubio projected and will still be dragging on past late April 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-28","2026-03-28","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-28",15],[7353,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI's io hardware device will never ship","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[7352,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will wind down the io hardware division it acquired from Jony Ive","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[7351,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Republican efforts to steal the November 2026 midterm elections will not succeed","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[7350,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Roughly four to five years after leaving office, Trump will be giving recorded legal testimony over insider trading tied to his market-moving announcements","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2034-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6728,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Los Angeles jury verdict finding Meta and YouTube liable for social-media harm to a minor will be thrown out on appeal","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6727,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","YouTube will eliminate algorithmic recommendation, promoting only channels it has signed contracts with","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6726,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Section 230 protections will be eliminated","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6725,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Donald Trump will not personally visit Iran before June 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-06-01","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6545,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Republicans will not have the votes to pass the Save America Act (mail-in voting restrictions and trans-sports provisions) through the 2026 reconciliation bill","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6544,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The House will act to resolve the DHS/TSA funding impasse around Monday, March 30, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-03-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6543,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Trump will push back / move his April 6, 2026 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz rather than carrying out the threatened destruction of Iran's energy plants on that date","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-04-06","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6274,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will settle Israelis in the Lebanese territory south of the Litani River that it takes","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6273,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will take southern Lebanon and force out the entire population living south of the Litani River","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6272,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","House Democratic leadership will not vote to stop the Iran war (no Democratic-led War Powers vote will end it)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",15],[6270,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The next major US military target in Iran will be something tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz rather than Kharg Island","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6269,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will launch its next major offensive against Iran on Friday March 27, 2026, not on Saturday March 28 as widely expected, despite Trump announcing a 10-day bombing pause","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-03-28","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6010,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Not a single Democratic senator will speak out against the Arctic Frost surveillance as an abuse of power","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6009,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Senate Democrats will never again vote to fund ICE","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6008,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Senate Republicans will pass a reconciliation bill funding ICE and CBP for ten years at increased funding levels","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6007,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The House will take up and pass the DHS funding bill that the Senate passed by voice vote on the night of March 26-27, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-04-10","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6006,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The chaos and long security lines at US airports will subside after Trump's order funding TSA pay","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-04-10","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5768,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5766,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not serve a third term as president","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5765,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The 2028 US presidential election will be held and not canceled","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5763,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump and Republicans will relent and reopen/fund DHS and TSA without getting what they demanded","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5762,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not succeed in getting the Save America Act passed in exchange for restoring TSA/DHS funding","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5531,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The House of Representatives will not pass the Senate's partial DHS funding bill that left ICE and CBP unfunded","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-04-30","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[5263,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","US public support for the Iran war will never rise above its late-March 2026 level; support will only decline from here","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[3828,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will end up keeping control of the Strait of Hormuz and converting passage through it into a paid toll system","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-27","2026-03-27","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-27",16],[6723,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tyler Robinson will not be convicted in the Charlie Kirk assassination case (acquittal or mistrial)","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[5530,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The NFL will not book a country act to headline the February 2027 Super Bowl halftime show","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2027-02-28","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[5260,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States will not institute a military draft over the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[4519,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","JB Pritzker will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3825,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US ground invasion of Iran's Kharg Island is imminent and will take place (within weeks of late March 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3822,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The No Kings protest on Saturday, March 28, 2026 will be bigger than the previous No Kings protest","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-03-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3821,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will declare victory in the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3820,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will retain control of the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely (still controlling it at the end of 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3819,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates rather than cut them (during 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3818,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will reach roughly 5% (possibly 5-5.5%) by the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[3258,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The partial DHS government shutdown will not be resolved on March 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-03-26","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-26",16],[6722,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Tyler Robinson will be found not guilty in the Charlie Kirk assassination trial","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6721,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Within the next six years (by roughly 2032), two-thirds of the Baby Boomer generation will die off in what is called the mortality shelf","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2032-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6719,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6268,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Democratic politicians who keep defending Israel and the donor class will lose badly in the 2028 primaries","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6267,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will seize southern Lebanon up to the Litani River for itself","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6266,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Iran war is nowhere near ending; reports that it is almost over will prove false","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6005,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Federal Trey's Law will be enacted in less than a decade (before ~2036), faster than the military sexual-assault prosecution reform took","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2036-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[6004,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trey's Law (banning NDAs that silence child sexual abuse victims) will be passed into law at the federal level","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[5757,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The US average gasoline price will reach $4.00 per gallon by March 26, 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-03-26","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[4816,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal income tax will not be eliminated in the near term (it will remain in place well beyond 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[4815,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Both Marine Expeditionary Units (aboard the Tripoli and the USS Boxer) will be on station in the North Arabian Sea by Friday, March 27, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-03-27","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[4813,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The social-media addiction verdicts against Meta and Google will be appealed up to the U.S. Supreme Court","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[4518,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Joe Kent will not be called as a defense witness at Tyler Robinson's trial","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[4517,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Charlie Kirk group-chat texts / alleged Israeli-connection theory will not be admitted into evidence at Tyler Robinson's trial","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[4516,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tyler Robinson will be convicted for the murder of Charlie Kirk","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3254,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Josh Shapiro will leave the Democratic Party before he runs for president","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2028-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3253,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran's nuclear program will be eradicated to the point of being irrelevant for a decade","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2036-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3252,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will end up with fundamentally different leadership, though not a US-installed puppet regime","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3251,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","A deal will give the US or American companies access to Iranian oil","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3250,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The military phase of the Iran war has about two weeks left (ending by about April 8, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-04-08","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3249,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New peace deals will be signed in the Middle East after the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3248,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[3247,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","US gas prices will come back down from their roughly 40-cent wartime increase","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-25","2026-03-25","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-25",16],[8007,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran's nuclear facilities will be destroyed before the current war ends.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[7349,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Trump Mobile phone will never launch","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[7348,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The global economy will fall into a recession (modest or deeper) as a result of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[6718,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The US will deploy additional ground troops for the purpose of taking Iran's Kharg Island during the 2026 Iran campaign","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[6265,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","In the 2028 presidential primaries, the first candidate who refuses to grovel to Israel will win their party's primary easily","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[6264,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US ground forces will be sent to seize Iran's Kharg Island","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[6263,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","There are no real US-Iran negotiations and the war will continue because Israel wants it to continue","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-04-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[6262,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US stock market is about to crash, falling well below its March 2026 level (Dow ~46,000)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5756,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US service-member deaths in the Iran war will reach double digits (10 or more)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5754,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Save America Act will not pass the US Senate","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5752,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be no serious federal investigation into the suspicious oil/S&P futures trades placed just before Trump's March 2026 Iran-strike-delay announcement","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5529,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The state of Utah will submit additional evidence against Tyler Robinson at his probable cause hearing in May 2026, beyond what was in the original probable cause affidavit","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-05-31","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5258,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","No nuclear weapon will be used in the Iran war (Saagar puts the odds of use at about 5%)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5257,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US gasoline prices will average around $4 a gallon or higher for over a year (through roughly March 2027)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2027-03-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[5256,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Vice President Vance will not travel to Islamabad for Iran talks during the week of March 23-29, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-03-29","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[4515,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Illinois Governor JB Pritzker will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3809,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will accelerate toward a 5% annual rate","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3806,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US stock markets will fall sharply when those upcoming inflation reports are released","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3805,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The upcoming US inflation reports (PPI and CPI) released in the following days and weeks will be very bad, showing surging inflation","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3804,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The LaGuardia Airport collision between Jazz Airlines flight 646 and a fire truck will be attributed to air traffic control error","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3803,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Persian Gulf liquefied natural gas available for export will run out within about 9-10 days, i.e. by roughly April 2, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-04-02","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3802,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US will launch a ground invasion to seize Iran's Kharg Island","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3246,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","John Fetterman will become a Republican before his political career ends","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3245,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The roughly 40-cent wartime rise in US gas prices is temporary and prices will come back down","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3244,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iran war will not become World War III or another American forever war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3243,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New Middle East peace deals will be reached within a couple of weeks (by about mid-April 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-04-15","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[3242,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The military phase of the Iran war will end within roughly two weeks (by about early April 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-24","2026-03-24","2026-04-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-24",16],[8006,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current Middle East conflict will not result in a full-scale war over the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[8005,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iranian people will stage renewed mass anti-regime demonstrations during or in the aftermath of the current conflict.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[6542,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will pressure Israel hard enough to get it and other regional players to accept an uneasy quasi-ceasefire that reduces the violence in the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[6541,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will back down (\"taco\") out of the Iran war and the war will wind down rather than escalate further","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[6003,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chuck Schumer will lose his next Senate election, including being unable to win a Democratic primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[6002,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will lose the next UK general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2029-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[5751,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will be badly defeated by voters in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[5750,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not withdraw from the Iran war while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed/unresolved","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[5528,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Congressional Democrats will not accept President Trump's offer of a $5 billion cut to ICE funding in exchange for passing the Save America Act","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-04-30","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[5255,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near term","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-04-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[5254,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US national average gasoline price will reach $4.00 a gallon before falling back (late March 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-04-15","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[5253,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Iran war will not be ended by the talks Trump announced on 3/23/26; hostilities will continue rather than producing a ceasefire","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-04-30","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[4810,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ICE agents will be present at polling places checking voter IDs in the fall 2026 elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[4809,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's stated plan to hand responsibility for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to Japan and NATO will not happen","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[4808,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ICE agents will be deployed at polling places checking voter IDs during the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[4514,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Don Lemon will be convicted on the charges arising from his conduct at the Minneapolis-area church protest","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[3454,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Trump will never reach 60% public support for his conduct of the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-23","2026-03-23",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[3241,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The US will decapitate the Iranian regime (its ruling leadership will be removed from power)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[3240,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New Middle East peace deals will follow the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[3239,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iran war will end well for the US","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-23","2026-03-23","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-23",16],[3796,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US gas and oil prices will not come down in the weeks following late March 2026, contrary to Trump's claim","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-22","2026-03-22","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-22",16],[3795,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil will not fall back to $100 per barrel until the end of 2027 or likely 2028","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-22","2026-03-22","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-22",16],[6717,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The US conflict with Iran will escalate further rather than wind down in the near term","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-21","2026-03-21","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-21",16],[6260,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Senator Lisa Murkowski will ultimately vote yes on the Iran war supplemental","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-21","2026-03-21","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-21",16],[6258,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congress will approve more than $100 billion in supplemental funding for the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-21","2026-03-21","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-21",16],[6257,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will send ground troops into Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-21","2026-03-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-21",16],[4807,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Ken Paxton will defeat John Cornyn in the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-21","2026-03-21","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-21",16],[7347,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will shut down its Sora social media app","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[7346,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Uber and Waymo, not Tesla, will be the biggest winners in autonomous vehicles","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[7345,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Jerome Powell's Fed will not cut interest rates, with inflation rising","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[7344,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Meta's Horizon Worlds VR metaverse will be shut down, despite Meta CTO Bosworth's denial","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[6716,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will lose the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[6256,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US inflation will rise further in the months after March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-09-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[6255,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Iran war supplemental funding bill will pass Congress, with Democrats supplying exactly as many votes as are needed","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[6254,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US ground deployment will begin with Iranian islands such as Kharg Island","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[6252,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Gas-station price inflation in the US will get worse following the strike on Iran's South Pars gas field","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-04-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[5746,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration will deport naturalized US citizens","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[5745,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not halt all US hostilities against Iran in the immediate term (late March 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[5743,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Marco Rubio, not JD Vance, will become Trump's successor as the leader of the MAGA movement heading into 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2028-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[5252,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not change course on the Iran war and turn it around","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-04-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[5251,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","There will be no significant public break between the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government over the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[5249,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Trump administration's Iran war funding request to Congress will grow beyond the initial $200 billion, not shrink","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[4513,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The reported federal leak investigation into former NCTC director Joe Kent will not go anywhere - he will not be criminally charged over the alleged leaks","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[4510,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[3791,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Qatari LNG and Saudi (Riyadh) energy facilities struck by Iran will remain damaged/impaired for the next three to five years (into roughly 2029-2031)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2031-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[3790,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Oil will rise to $150 per barrel and on toward $200 per barrel in 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[3237,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New Middle East peace deals will be on the table once the Iran war is wrapped up","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[3236,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","US gasoline prices will fall before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[3235,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iran war will wrap up favorably for the US before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-20","2026-03-20","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-20",16],[6715,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act will be repealed or gutted","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",16],[6251,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Iran war will not end within the administration's stated four-to-six-week timeline (i.e., it will still be going past mid-April 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-04-15","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",16],[6250,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","JD Vance will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",16],[6249,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The price of oil will keep rising above the ~$108/barrel level of March 18, 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[5741,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The oil and gas price disruption from the Iran war will persist into the summer 2026 travel months","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[5740,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the near term (through roughly mid-2026) despite the falling stock market","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[5248,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will put ground troops into Iranian territory as the next major escalation of the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[5247,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US national average gasoline price will reach $4.00 a gallon by about March 22, 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-03-22","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[5246,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Asian countries will burn more coal in 2026, as a result of the Iran war energy crisis, than in any year of the previous twenty years","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[4806,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jerome Powell will stay on the Federal Reserve Board as a governor after his term as Fed chair ends in May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-05-15","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[4805,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Mike Lindell will win the 2026 Minnesota governor's race","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[3233,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran's nuclear program will be set back by many years as a result of the 2026 strikes","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2031-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[3232,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The US/Israel war with Iran will end, on terms favorable to the US, before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[3231,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The SAVE America Act will pass the Senate before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-19","2026-03-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-19",17],[8004,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States may seize Iran's Kharg Island during the current conflict.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[8003,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The U.S. campaign's next escalation will target both Iran's natural-gas distribution system and its electrical grid.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[6248,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","After taking southern Lebanon, Israel will move to take northern Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-18","2026-03-18",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[6000,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Save America Act will receive approximately 50 to 52 yes votes on its Senate floor vote in March 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[5999,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Senate's final vote on the Save America Act will be held on Thursday, March 19, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-03-19","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[5739,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not succeed in withdrawing the United States from NATO by unilateral executive action","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[5737,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not resign or quit the presidency before his term ends, even if Republicans are crushed in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[5526,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Sen. John Fetterman will vote in favor of Mark Wayne Mullin's DHS nomination at the committee level","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[5525,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Mark Wayne Mullin will be confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[4804,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The USS Gerald R. Ford's deployment will run past one year by mid-April 2026, making it the longest post-World War II US Navy deployment","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[4803,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Wynton Hall's book 'Code Red' will make the New York Times bestseller list","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[4802,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","US forces will drop 5,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iranian targets again on the night of March 18, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-03-19","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[4509,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Nancy Guthrie abduction case will be solved, with the masked suspect from the doorstep surveillance video identified and caught","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[3783,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will rise above 5% by the end of 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[3782,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The price of oil will hit $150 per barrel within a few months of March 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[3781,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Joe Kent's resignation letter post will reach about 100 million views on X/Twitter","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[3230,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Senate Republicans will not reach the 60 votes needed for cloture on the SAVE America Act","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[3229,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Byron Donalds will win the November 2026 Florida governor's race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-18","2026-03-18","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-18",17],[8001,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","President Trump will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed or under total Iranian control through the current conflict.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[7343,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Grok's failures and founder departures will not hurt xAI's valuation — investors will keep backing Musk regardless","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[7342,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The SAVE Act (proof-of-citizenship voting bill) will not pass — it is dead on arrival","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[7341,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Fareed Zakaria will launch his own podcast and newsletter outside legacy media","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6714,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The United States will not use a nuclear weapon against Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6713,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The US will mandate government-ID verification to log in to social media / use the internet","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6540,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Illinois 9th District Democratic congressional primary on March 17, 2026 will be won by either Kat Abughazaleh or Daniel Biss","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6246,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The SAVE Act will fail in the Senate because of the filibuster","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6245,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will not return the roughly 53% of Gaza it currently controls","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6243,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Oil will reach $120 per barrel","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[6242,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","US gasoline prices at the pump will keep rising after mid-March 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-04-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5736,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Gavin Newsom will run for president in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2028-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5524,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Tommy Tuberville will be elected the next governor of Alabama in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5523,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Tulsi Gabbard will not resign as Director of National Intelligence (unlike Joe Kent) through the end of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5244,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Joe Kent's resignation will NOT be followed by a wave of further Trump administration resignations over the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5243,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Trump administration will seek to criminally indict Joe Kent after his resignation over the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5242,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will offset Iran war supplemental funding with cuts to health/entitlement programs such as Medicare","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5241,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win a 2006-style wave blowout in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5240,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Public support for the Iran war will never rise above its March 2026 level of roughly 50 percent","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5239,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Democrats who have said they will support funding the Iran war (aside from John Fetterman) will reverse position and oppose the war-funding supplemental","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[5238,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The USS Gerald R. Ford's current deployment will set the record for the longest post-Vietnam US aircraft carrier deployment","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[4801,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","European allies will not put troops on the line of control in Ukraine as part of a post-war security guarantee","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[4800,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The CIA under Director John Ratcliffe will release documents to John Solomon on 2020 election interference within days of March 17, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[4799,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The pro-AI super PAC network (Leading the Future / the 'AI PAC'), initially capitalized at $125 million, will grow to more than $200 million in funding","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[3779,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US war with Iran will still be ongoing at least through May 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[3227,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Cuba's communist regime will be brought down / forced from power","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2027-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[3226,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","US energy prices will not spike dramatically because of the Iran war","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[3225,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran will not succeed in closing the Strait of Hormuz","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-17","2026-03-17","2026-06-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-17",17],[8000,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States will seize Iran's Kharg Island during the current conflict.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[6539,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Democratic nominee will lose the November 2026 Alabama governor's race to Tommy Tuberville","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[6537,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Trump will not send US ground troops (a Marine expeditionary force landing on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz) into Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[5734,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Iran (and possibly other Gulf states) will keep retaliating against the United States and/or disrupting the global oil market even after Trump declares the war over","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2026-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[5237,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Israel will not allow the displaced residents of southern Lebanon to return home, and the seized southern Lebanon territory will become a lasting expansion of Israeli-controlled borders","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-16","2026-03-16",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[5236,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win the 2028 US presidential election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2028-11-07","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[5235,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not stand down in the war (halt its attacks / stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz) without receiving concessions from the US in return","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-16","2026-03-16",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[4797,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Houthis will enter the Iran war, becoming an active combatant threatening Red Sea shipping","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[4796,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will not be a US presidential state visit to China in April 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[4508,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Trump Justice Department under AG Pam Bondi will not bring criminal charges against Tucker Carlson over his contacts with sources in Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-16","2026-03-16",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[3450,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Iran is not hiding a large reserve of roughly 500 ballistic missiles that it will unleash on Israel later in the war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-16","2026-03-16",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[3448,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-16","2026-03-16","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-16",17],[5732,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Ahead of the November 2026 midterms, the Trump administration will deploy turnout-suppression tactics such as immigration enforcement near polling places, consolidation of polling locations/drop boxes, and restrictions on mail-in ballots","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-15","2026-03-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-15",17],[3767,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's Iran war will send the US into a depression-level economic downturn","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-15","2026-03-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-15",17],[3766,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until oil reaches $200 per barrel","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-15","2026-03-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-15",17],[3765,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Many more American service members will be killed in Trump's Iran war after 2026-03-15 (US deaths rise above the 13 reported)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-15","2026-03-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-15",17],[3763,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's Iran war will push the US and global economy into a recession, if not a depression","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-15","2026-03-15","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-15",17],[6241,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Warren-Scott housing bill that passed the Senate 89-9 (restricting corporate purchases of single-family homes) will not become law","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-14","2026-03-14","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[6240,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not surrender to Israel in the current 2026 war","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-14","2026-03-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[5234,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Israel will invade and occupy the area of Lebanon south of the Litani River","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-14","2026-03-14",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[5233,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not stop fighting or walk away in response to a US declaration of mission accomplished","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-14","2026-03-14",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[5232,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will end up committing ground forces to the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-14","2026-03-14",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[4794,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump's state visit to China will go ahead despite the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-14","2026-03-14","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[4793,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran's regime will not surrender in the current war; it will fight to the end","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-14","2026-03-14","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-14",17],[7999,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz within the next week.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7998,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Sinners will win Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-03-15","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7339,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Oil prices will stay elevated above pre-war levels through the rest of 2026","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7338,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Oil will not reach $150 a barrel","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7337,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates because reignited inflation traps it","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7336,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Pakistan and Egypt will default on their dollar-denominated debt","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7335,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Bitcoin will fall to around $30,000 by ~August 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[7334,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The S&P 500 will be down 20-40% from its peak by August 2026 (roughly a $10 trillion market wipeout)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-08-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[6235,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will seize and keep the southern Lebanese land it has emptied of roughly a million residents","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[6234,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel and the US will not succeed in knocking out / toppling the Iranian regime","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5996,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chuck Schumer will not run for reelection to the Senate in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2028-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5995,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chuck Schumer will not win another US Senate election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5730,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will deploy administrative mechanisms to suppress turnout and skew the November 2026 midterms (short of canceling the election)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5729,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not cancel the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5728,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will suffer major losses in the November 2026 midterm elections, losing their House majority","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5727,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republican Clay Fuller will win the April 7, 2026 runoff for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former Georgia congressional seat, beating Democrat Sean Harris","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-04-07","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5521,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Nigel Farage's Reform UK will win an outright majority at the next UK general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2029-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5230,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will put boots on the ground in Iran as the next step up the escalation chain","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[5229,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will not be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through air power alone","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[4792,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will reach a trade deal with China on US terms","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[4791,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump's state visit / meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing will take place (scheduled for around 21 April 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[4789,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Italy and France will publicly deny the Financial Times report that they are in direct negotiations with Iran to get their oil and cargo out of the Persian Gulf","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[4507,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Democrat James Talarico will lose the Texas U.S. Senate race in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[4506,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","There will be more Islamist-motivated terror attacks inside the United States in the months following March 2026, as retaliation for the U.S. war on Iran","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[3756,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US national debt will be close to $60 trillion by the end of Trump's term in January 2029","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[3753,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will surge to sharply higher levels as a result of the Iran war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[3752,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its next meeting despite Trump's demand","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[3751,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The six missing crew members of the downed KC-135 Stratotanker will not be found alive","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[3750,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Marine Expeditionary Unit deployment is an early step toward a US ground invasion of Iran, which will follow","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-13","2026-03-13","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-13",17],[6711,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Republicans will lose control of the House in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[6710,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The SAVE Act will not pass the Senate — Republican leadership and Democrats have arranged for it to be blocked","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[6709,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Iranian drone attack on California warned about in the FBI memo will not happen","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[6534,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Mark Wayne Mullin will be confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of Homeland Security","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[6232,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","US grocery prices will rise further because of the fertilizer supply shock caused by the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[6231,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US-Israeli air campaign will not topple the Iranian regime","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[6230,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will refuse a ceasefire and keep fighting rather than accept a negotiated halt to the war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[5228,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will escalate to a ground invasion / boots on the ground in Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[5225,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Israel will launch a massive ground invasion of Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[5223,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will not pay reparations to Iran for the damage done in the war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[5222,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","There will be no ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran war in the near term (the weeks following mid-March 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[4787,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The US Senate will hold an extended, multi-day floor debate on the Save America Act in the week beginning ~16 March 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[4505,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Fertility Center of Orlando (Longwood, FL) will go out of business in the wake of the IVF embryo mix-up","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[3749,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Strait of Hormuz will not reopen to normal commercial shipping in the near term after mid-March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[3748,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US-Iran war will not end in the near term after mid-March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[3747,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Crude oil will trade above $90 per barrel for the foreseeable future, and higher than the $90-plus the US government is forecasting","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[3746,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iranian cyber attacks against US companies will expand beyond the Stryker hack","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[3745,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will not surrender in the war with the United States and Israel","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",17],[3743,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US average gasoline prices will reach $4 per gallon following the Iran war oil shock","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",18],[3740,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Middle East Arab (Gulf) nations will make security deals with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",18],[3739,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's Strategic Petroleum Reserve release will do essentially nothing to bring oil prices down; crude prices will keep rising during the roughly 120-day release","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2026-07-15","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",18],[3223,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New York City's projected budget gap will keep growing beyond the $7.3 billion two-year shortfall reported in March 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-12","2026-03-12","2027-06-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-12",18],[6239,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Under Larry Ellison's ownership of CNN, Jake Tapper will be promoted and moved to a better time slot","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[6238,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","More US troops have died in the Iran war than the government has disclosed, and that will come out","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-11","2026-03-11",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[6236,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US public support for the Iran war will fall below 41% to a lower level than any previous US war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[5994,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The US will not conduct an extended military occupation of Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2027-03-11","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[5993,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The US will not deploy a massive ground-troop presence in Iran during this conflict","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2027-03-11","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[5991,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The gasoline-price increase caused by the Iran conflict will be short-term - US national average gas prices will fall back to roughly their pre-conflict level (about $2.50-2.75/gal) within months","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3222,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The photo of NYPD Chief Aaron Edwards leaping the barricade at the Gracie Mansion bombing will be named image/photo of the year by a major magazine","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3221,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Washington state will extend its new income tax below the $1 million threshold, to lower income levels, within about five years","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2031-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3220,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The SAVE Act will not get the 60 Senate votes needed to break a filibuster - seven Democrats will not cross over","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3219,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","New Middle East peace/normalization deals will be signed following the 2026 Iran war","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2027-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3218,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Iran-Israel-US conflict will not end by March 15, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2026-03-15","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3217,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","After roughly another week or two of bombing, Iran's remaining leadership will come to the table for talks with the US","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2026-04-30","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[3216,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The US/Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue roughly another one to two weeks, into late March 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-11","2026-03-11","2026-03-25","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-11",18],[7333,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will win the investor lawsuit over his 2022 tweets about pausing the Twitter deal","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[7332,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Within two to four weeks (by ~early April 2026) other CEOs will step into the leadership vacuum and publicly back Anthropic/push back on the administration","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2026-04-07","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[6708,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","The United States will not institute a military draft over the Iran conflict","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[6707,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The United States will not have to militarily take over Cuba","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[5726,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will publicly declare the Iran war over/won (declare victory and begin an exit) soon, by roughly the end of April 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[5517,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Iran will need years, if not decades, to rebuild the naval and missile military infrastructure destroyed in the March 2026 U.S. campaign","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2031-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[5221,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not agree to end the war / walk away in the near term even if Trump declares mission accomplished","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[5219,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US diesel prices will reach four to five dollars a gallon","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[5218,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will end up acquiring a nuclear weapon as an end state of this war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[4784,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No Virginia court will block the April 21, 2026 Democratic redistricting referendum from going forward","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2026-04-21","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[4783,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Gulf Arab states will not join the US/Israel military campaign against Iran as participants in the war","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[4503,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Nancy Guthrie case will turn out to have been a murder staged to look like an abduction, not a kidnapping-for-ransom","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3735,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The next US inflation reports will show sharply worse inflation because of the war-driven surge in gas prices","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2026-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3215,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Jimmy Kimmel will lose his late-night show","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2027-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3214,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Trump will stay out of the 2028 Republican presidential primary for a long stretch rather than endorsing a successor early","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2027-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3213,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","JD Vance will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2028-06-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3212,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Reza Pahlavi, the Shah's son, will become the leader of Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3211,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran's clerical regime (the mullahs) will be driven from power","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-10","2026-03-10",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[3210,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The intensive initial US/Israeli strike phase of the Iran war will be essentially finished within a few days (by roughly March 14, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-10","2026-03-10","2026-03-14","2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-10",18],[7997,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S. military campaign against Iran will be over within the next few weeks.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-04-06","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5989,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The United States will not use a nuclear weapon against Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5988,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The newly named Iranian supreme leader (son of the previous Ayatollah) will not get to take over and hold power in Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5986,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The war-driven gasoline price spike will be short term and U.S. gasoline prices will drop back down","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5985,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The U.S./Israel military conflict with Iran will not last more than a couple more weeks (i.e., it ends by roughly late March 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5725,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US gasoline prices will rise further above the roughly $3.50/gallon level reached by 2026-03-09","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5724,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will publicly claim that the United States won the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5723,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will try to back out of / wind down US involvement in the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5516,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Biggs will become governor of Arizona following the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5215,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will send ground troops into Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[5214,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US will put ground troops (boots on the ground) into Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[4502,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Kamala Harris will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3728,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's job approval will stay at or near his record low for the rest of 2026 (no meaningful recovery)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3443,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","'Sentimental Value' will not win the Best Picture Oscar on March 15, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-03-15","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3442,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","'Sentimental Value' will win the Best International Feature Oscar on March 15, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-03-15","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3441,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Jafar Panahi's 'It Was Just an Accident' will not win the Best International Feature Oscar on March 15, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-03-15","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3209,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Trump administration will move against Cuba's communist regime in 2026, as it did with Venezuela and Iran","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3208,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Footage of Democrats refusing to stand at the 2026 State of the Union will be used heavily in Republican campaign ads before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[3207,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Republicans will not be wiped out in the November 2026 midterms - they will hold at least one chamber of Congress","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-09","2026-03-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-09",18],[4781,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will be no off-ramp (ceasefire, negotiated wind-down, or halt) in the US/Israel war against Iran by Tuesday, March 10, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-08","2026-03-08","2026-03-10","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-08",18],[3723,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US headline CPI inflation will rise above 4% by April or May 2026, driven by food, energy, airline and transport-insurance components","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-08","2026-03-08","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-08",18],[3722,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US stock markets will fall sharply when they reopen after the weekend of March 8, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-08","2026-03-08","2026-03-09","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-08",18],[6706,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","EA will shut down the servers for the new Skate game within about a month (by ~early April 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-07","2026-03-07","2026-04-07","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[6705,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","California will elect a Republican governor in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-07","2026-03-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[6704,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Two Republicans (Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco) will advance out of California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary, leaving voters a Republican-vs-Republican choice for governor in November 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-07","2026-03-07","2026-06-02","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[6229,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US unemployment will rise to at least 10% as AI eliminates jobs","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-07","2026-03-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[6228,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will carry out a military attack on Cuba","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-07","2026-03-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[6227,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US and Israel will not achieve regime change in Iran from the air; it will not happen without a ground invasion","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-07","2026-03-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[5515,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","DHS under Mark Wayne Mullin will offer negotiating concessions to sanctuary cities in exchange for their cooperation on deportations","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-03-07","2026-03-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[5514,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The SAVE Act will not be enacted and in force in time for the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-07","2026-03-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[4780,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Texas Legislature will be called into a special session during 2026 rather than waiting for its next regular session in 2027","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-07","2026-03-07","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[3721,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will declare an Iranian unconditional surrender and claim victory even though Iran does not actually surrender","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-07","2026-03-07",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[3720,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Many more US service members will be killed in Trump's war against Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-07","2026-03-07",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-07",18],[7331,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery will clear regulatory review and close","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[7330,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Paramount will merge CNN and CBS News into a single combined news operation","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[7329,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Significant bipartisan legislation regulating AI chatbots' interactions with users will be enacted","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[7328,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Within 30 days (by ~early April 2026) a wave of major-company CEOs will publicly refuse/push back against the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-04-05","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[7325,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Pam Bondi will be the next senior Trump administration official pushed out/humiliated after Kristi Noem","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[6225,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will move into southern Lebanon and take the territory it has ordered 200,000-300,000 residents to evacuate","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5982,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Harriet Hageman will become a U.S. Senator from Wyoming","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5981,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","John Bonk will win his Texas Republican congressional primary runoff (expected ~May 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5980,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chris Gober will win his Central Texas U.S. House seat in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5979,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Jessica Steinman will win her Houston-area U.S. House seat in the November 2026 general election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5978,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Senate confirmation vote on Mark Wayne Mullin for DHS Secretary will be 54-46, with 46 Democrats voting no","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5977,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Mark Wayne Mullin will be confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of Homeland Security","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[5213,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Iran war will still be going on after September 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-09-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[4778,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Senate Republicans will never institute the talking filibuster (a Senate rules change forcing Democrats to hold the floor), through the end of the 119th Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[4501,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Gavin Newsom will not be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[4500,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Republican nominee will defeat Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[4499,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Democratic nominee (pastor Frederick Haynes III) will win Jasmine Crockett's vacated Texas U.S. House seat in the November 2026 general election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[4498,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","ICE will ignore Virginia's new restriction criminalizing federal immigration agents wearing face coverings during enforcement operations","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[3718,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Corey Lewandowski will be fired or pushed out of his role at the Department of Homeland Security / the administration","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[3717,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will launch additional US ground invasions in the Western Hemisphere beyond Venezuela and Ecuador","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[3716,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will stop publishing official inflation reports, using the war as the justification","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[3715,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will surge in the months following March 2026","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[3714,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US average gasoline prices will reach $3.50 a gallon or more in the near term (spring 2026)","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[3205,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Tucker Carlson's White House invitations will dry up; he will not be hosted at the Trump White House going forward","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-06","2026-03-06","2026-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-06",18],[7996,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current Iran operation will not involve an Iraq-style U.S. ground invasion force of hundreds of thousands of troops.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-05","2026-03-05",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[6701,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Brandon Herrera will win the Texas 23rd congressional district Republican primary runoff against Tony Gonzales","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[6222,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The true US military death toll from the opening phase of the Iran war will turn out to be higher than the six deaths publicly acknowledged as of early March 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[6221,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Kurdish forces will go into Iran to foment unrest/civil war at Netanyahu's urging, regardless of whether Trump approves it","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-05","2026-03-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[5212,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Senator Chris Coons will ultimately vote to fund the Iran war supplemental","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[5211,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Thomas Massie will be one of only a very small number of House Republicans to vote against the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[5210,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Iran war will not be quick; the US will still be fighting it months from early March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-06-05","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[5208,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Graham Platner will defeat Susan Collins in the November 2026 Maine US Senate election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[4776,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Xi Jinping's planned April 2026 state meeting with President Trump will not happen","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3707,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will refuse to release/publicize the upcoming U.S. inflation report, citing the war as the reason","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3706,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Airline ticket prices and travel costs will become significantly more expensive following the jet-fuel price spike from the Iran war","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-09-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3705,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The next U.S. inflation reports released after March 2026 will show a sharp worsening of inflation","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3704,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","There will be no near-term negotiated resolution or ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war (markets expecting one are wrong)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3439,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Academy voters will not give Jafar Panahi's Iranian film an Oscar at the March 2026 Academy Awards","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-03-15","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3204,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Republican nominee (Cornyn or Paxton) will defeat Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 Texas US Senate election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-05","2026-03-05","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[3203,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran's nuclear program will be completely destroyed as a result of the US/Israel campaign","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-05","2026-03-05",null,"2026-07-29","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-05",18],[7995,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S.-Iran war will last days or weeks, not months.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2026-05-04","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[6700,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Brandon Herrera will beat Tony Gonzales in the Texas 23rd congressional district Republican primary held 2026-03-03","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2026-03-03","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[6699,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump will order US ground troops into Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[6698,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Israel's IDF, not the US, will supply the bulk of the ground forces that enter Iran in the 2026 war","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[6220,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Trump administration and Congress will request a large additional (supplemental) appropriation to pay for the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[6219,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will exhaust its stockpile of air-defense interceptor missiles during the war with Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[5976,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trey's Law -- the federal bill making non-disclosure agreements binding child sexual-abuse victims void and unenforceable -- will be enacted into federal law, and it will take less than a decade from March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2036-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[5509,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Turnout in the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff will be higher than turnout in the March 3, 2026 primary","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2026-05-26","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[4774,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Sen. John Cornyn's anti-Sharia bill will go nowhere in the Senate — it will not advance or be enacted","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[4773,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Within roughly 48 hours (by about March 5, 2026), the U.S. and its Arab regional allies will launch a joint large-scale assault on Iran","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2026-03-06","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[4496,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Jasmine Crockett will be given a weekend hosting show on MSNBC/MS NOW","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[4495,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Ken Paxton will defeat John Cornyn in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff (scheduled for May 26, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2026-05-26","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[3202,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Saudi Arabia will enter the Iran war militarily on the side of the United States and Israel","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-04","2026-03-04","2026-04-30","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-04",18],[7323,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","US equity valuations will undergo multiple contraction, with the S&P 500's price-earnings multiple falling over the coming year","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2027-03-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",18],[7322,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Anthropic will prevail in its legal fight against the federal government's move to bar it from federal contracts","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",18],[7320,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Oil prices will be lower in six months (by ~September 2026) than they were on 2026-03-03","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-09-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",18],[6218,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The number of US service members killed in the Iran war will rise above the six confirmed so far","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",18],[6217,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US war with Iran will drag on for months, not the four to five weeks Trump projected","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",18],[6216,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will devastate southern Lebanon the way it devastated Gaza","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",18],[6215,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Trump will put US ground troops into Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[6214,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The war on Iran will produce a major Iranian refugee crisis, with allied countries taking in large numbers of Iranian refugees","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5721,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not use the Middle East conflict as justification to delay, cancel, or otherwise interfere with the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5719,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The US average gasoline price will rise another 10 to 30 cents per gallon within the week following 2026-03-03","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-03-10","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5718,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Senate will not convict Donald Trump in an impeachment trial","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5508,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Ken Paxton will become the next U.S. Senator from Texas","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2027-01-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5207,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Reza Pahlavi will not end up leading Iran or heading a democratic transition there","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5206,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Republican base will largely go along with and support the Iran war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-09-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[5205,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Republicans will take a thumping in the November 2026 midterm elections, as Republicans did in 2006 amid an unpopular Middle East war","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[4772,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The SAVE America Act will not receive a hearing or floor consideration in the U.S. Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3700,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran's newly selected Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) will not cooperate or reach a deal with Trump","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3699,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US military death toll in the Iran war will rise above the six service members confirmed killed as of March 3, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3698,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Iran will install a new Supreme Leader who is more extreme/hardline than the Ayatollah the US killed","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3697,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","More American troops will be killed in Trump's Iran war after March 3, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3696,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US inflation will spike sharply as a result of the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure (2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3695,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","US gas prices will skyrocket because of the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz (spring 2026)","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03","2026-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[3200,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","JD Vance will publicly back Trump on the Iran war through its conclusion rather than breaking with him","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-03","2026-03-03",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-03",19],[7994,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","At least one additional U.S. service member will be wounded or killed before the current Iran operation ends.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[6528,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-05-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[6527,"The Bulwark","Bill Kristol","The Bulwark","high","The March 3, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary will go to a runoff between Ken Paxton and John Cornyn","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-03-03","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5975,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","US minesweepers will go into the Strait of Hormuz to examine and determine whether Iran has mined it","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5974,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The United States will not put ground troops into Iran during the 2026 conflict with Iran","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5973,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The March 1, 2026 mass shooting outside a bar on Sixth Street in Austin, Texas will be conclusively established as an act of terrorism","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5716,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump and Republicans will be crushed in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5714,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will claim election fraud in advance of the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5713,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will attempt to cancel, delay, or manipulate the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5711,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not use the Iran war as the justification for canceling or delaying the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5710,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","When the Iran operation ends, Trump will publicly claim he ended another war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5709,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The U.S. military campaign against Iran will continue about three to four more weeks from March 2, 2026 (ending by roughly the end of March 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-03-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5204,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The IRGC will not surrender or hand over its weapons; it will fight to the death","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5203,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will not accomplish regime change in Iran through air power alone","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5201,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Congressional Republicans will overwhelmingly go along with the Iran war, with only a handful of dissenters","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[5200,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","US public support for military action against Iran has already peaked at roughly a third and will not rise above that level","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[4770,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The SAVE America Act will not be passed by Congress in the near term, forcing the election-integrity push to go the executive-order route instead","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[4769,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will be no Trump-Xi state visit in April 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[4494,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The U.S. war on Iran will be followed by retaliatory Islamist terror attacks on soft targets inside the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2027-03-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[3199,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Dearborn-area Michigan college professor who publicly eulogized Khamenei and vowed to teach his ideology will face no consequences for it","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[3198,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The active military phase of the US/Israel war with Iran will be short, ending within a few months of March 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02","2026-06-30","2026-07-29","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[3197,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, will become Iran's next leader after the US/Israel war ends","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-02","2026-03-02",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-02",19],[7993,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current level of U.S. military action against Iran will not still be ongoing two months from now.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-03-01","2026-03-01","2026-05-01","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-01",19],[3196,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The November 2026 midterms will go badly for Republicans, who will lose control of the House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-03-01","2026-03-01","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-03-01",19],[6212,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Donald Trump will never testify in the congressional Epstein investigation","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-28","2026-02-28",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[6211,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","American sympathy for the Palestinians will keep rising and sympathy for Israel will keep falling in future polling","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[6210,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will go to war with Iran (put at roughly 85% likely)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[5199,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The president elected in November 2028 will take a substantially less pro-Israel approach than the Trump administration","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2028-11-07","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[5198,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not walk away from the Iran war while the Iranian government is still standing","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[5197,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US and Israel will not topple the Iranian government with airstrikes alone (no regime change without a ground invasion)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-28","2026-02-28",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[5196,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US military campaign against Iran will run for weeks, not days","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2026-04-15","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[5195,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Iran will fall into full-blown internal armed conflict (civil war) as a result of the US-Israel regime-change war, whether or not the US puts boots on the ground","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[4767,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The March 3, 2026 Texas Republican primaries will produce multiple runoffs","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-28","2026-02-28","2026-03-03","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-28",19],[7990,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Democrats will take control of the House in the November 2026 elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[7319,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Publicly traded private-equity/private-credit firms (Apollo, TPG, Blue Owl) are undervalued and will outperform the broader market over the medium term","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2027-02-28","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[7318,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Netflix stock will rise sharply after it walked away from the Warner Bros. Discovery bidding war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[6526,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The Ellisons (Paramount), who already control CBS, will end up owning CNN as well via the Warner Bros. Discovery deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[6209,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Trump administration's effort to manipulate Americans into supporting a war with Iran will not work","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[6208,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Ben Shapiro will move to Israel after American casualties in the Iran war turn public anger against him","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[5707,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","James Talarico will win the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary held March 3, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-03-03","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[5507,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Brandon Herrera will defeat incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales for the Republican nomination in Texas's 23rd congressional district in the 2026 cycle","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-05-26","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[5194,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Pentagon will act against Anthropic by declaring it a 'supply chain risk' rather than by invoking the Defense Production Act","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-06-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4766,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will publicly cite foreign interference in U.S. elections as the basis for federal action on the 2026 elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4765,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary on March 3, 2026 will go to a runoff, with no candidate winning a majority","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-03-03","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4763,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The April 21, 2026 Virginia congressional redistricting referendum backed by Gov. Spanberger will pass overwhelmingly","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-04-21","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4761,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S. intelligence community will publicly produce evidence of Chinese Communist Party involvement in the 2020 U.S. election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4760,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump will sign an executive order giving the president emergency powers over U.S. elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4759,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S. Supreme Court will become involved in the litigation over Trump's elections emergency-powers executive order","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4758,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's elections emergency-powers executive order will be challenged in court immediately after it is issued","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4757,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The U.S. Senate will not pass federal election-integrity / voter-ID legislation before the November 2026 midterms, leaving Trump to act by executive order instead","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4756,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The substance of Trump's executive order alleging foreign (Chinese Communist Party) interference in U.S. elections will begin becoming public within roughly two weeks (by ~mid-March 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27","2026-03-13","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4493,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Law enforcement will not keep 400 officers assigned to the Nancy Guthrie disappearance investigation","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4492,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The man arrested and charged in the February 2026 snowball/ice attack on NYPD officers will receive no punishment, with Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg's office letting the case resolve to nothing","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4491,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tom Goldstein will be disbarred","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4490,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tom Goldstein will be sentenced to prison for his federal tax-fraud convictions","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[4489,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tom Goldstein will appeal his federal tax-fraud conviction","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-27","2026-02-27",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-27",19],[6697,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The Chicago Bears will leave the city of Chicago, building their new stadium outside city limits (Arlington Heights, Illinois or Indiana)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-26","2026-02-26",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[6206,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Anthropic's CEO will not hold to his principles and the company will give in to the Pentagon's demand to drop its AI safeguards","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[6205,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","AOC will not use her platform to publicly pressure Democratic leadership to hold a floor vote on the Khanna-Massie Iran war powers resolution","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[5706,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration will still be blaming the Biden administration for the economy in year four of the term (2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[5705,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will not win the Texas U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[5704,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will suffer significant losses in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[5703,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The November 2026 midterm elections will be a disaster for Republicans","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[4755,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Hard-core Trump Republican voters in Texas will turn out on primary election day, Tuesday March 3, 2026, rather than in early voting, with Republican election-day votes exceeding Republican early votes","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-03-03","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[4754,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The court-ordered mediation in the Fulton County, Georgia 2020-ballot seizure case will drag on for roughly a couple of months (into late April 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-04-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[3686,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will go to war with Iran (US military attack on Iran) within weeks of late February 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[3195,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Florida will get rid of property taxes (measure approved and property tax eliminated, not merely proposed)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-26","2026-02-26","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-26",19],[7989,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Senate will have a 50-50 partisan balance after the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[7988,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will lose control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[7987,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Democrats will not nominate Kamala Harris for president again in 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6696,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Donald Trump will say the word \"transgender\" during his 2026 State of the Union address (2026-02-25)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6204,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Iran war will be deeply unpopular with the American public after it begins","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-25","2026-02-25",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6202,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","A US-Iran war will spin out of control into a devastating wider regional war","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6200,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","In a war with Iran, Iranian conventional weapons and drones will do significant damage to US ships and aircraft","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6199,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will be attacked militarily","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6198,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US national debt and the annual federal deficit will keep growing under the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[6197,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Trump's February 2026 State of the Union address will not improve his approval ratings","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[5971,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trump accounts (the federal investment accounts for children) will hold trillions of dollars in assets within a few years","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-25","2026-02-25",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[5970,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Footage of congressional Democrats refusing to stand at the February 2026 State of the Union when Trump asked them to stand for putting American citizens ahead of illegal immigrants will be used in Republican campaign ads ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[5701,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[5193,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will attack Iran within days (by roughly mid-March 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-03-15","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[5192,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump's announced data-center 'ratepayer protection' (requiring tech companies to build their own power plants) will not become national policy","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[4487,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Abigail Spanberger will not rise to national office on a Democratic presidential ticket","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2028-11-07","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[4486,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Footage of Democrats refusing to stand at the February 2026 State of the Union will be used in campaign ads before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-25","2026-02-25","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-25",19],[7986,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Democrats will gain between 20 and 25 U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[7985,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Donald Trump's February 24, 2026 State of the Union address will last longer than his 99-minute 2025 address.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[7317,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Judge Aileen Cannon's order blocking public release of the special counsel report on the Trump classified-documents case will be overturned on appeal","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[7314,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Netflix will publicly issue a statement of support for board member Susan Rice after Trump demanded her removal (by ~March 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-03-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[6195,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","American consumers will receive no refund of the tariff costs they paid after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[6191,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not agree to a deal that surrenders its ballistic missiles and cedes control of its foreign policy","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5700,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","In his February 24, 2026 State of the Union address, Trump will blame Joe Biden and Barack Obama for the country's problems and say he inherited a mess","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-25","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5699,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will tell a lie within the first 60 seconds of his February 24, 2026 State of the Union address","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-25","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5503,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The preliminary hearing in the Tyler Robinson case (Charlie Kirk assassination) will be held in May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-05-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5502,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Gavin Newsom will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2028-11-07","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5191,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Additional Epstein files/records will become public as a result of the criminal investigations launched in the UK, France and other countries","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5189,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The Russia-Ukraine war will not end; it will keep going indefinitely","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5188,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The US will go to war with / militarily strike Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[5187,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not bring up UFO/alien disclosure in his February 24, 2026 State of the Union address (Saagar puts it at 15%)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4752,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will hold a Texas event in Corpus Christi on Friday, February 27, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-27","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4751,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The round of US-Iran negotiations scheduled for Thursday, February 26, 2026 in Geneva will not take place in its planned indirect, separate-rooms format","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-26","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4748,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Radical Democratic House members will try to shout Trump down during the February 24, 2026 State of the Union","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4747,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's February 24, 2026 State of the Union address will draw a total audience of at least 24 million viewers","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-25","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4746,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's February 24, 2026 State of the Union address will run long, past the 10 p.m. Eastern hour (the speech began at 9 p.m.)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4745,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will be a lot of heckling of Trump by Democrats during the February 24, 2026 State of the Union","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4744,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Mitch McConnell will work against the Save America Act (election-integrity bill) in the Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4743,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democratic members of Congress will audibly heckle and try to shout Trump down inside the chamber during the February 24, 2026 State of the Union","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4742,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's February 24, 2026 State of the Union address will run at least an hour","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4484,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Trump will not acknowledge in his February 24, 2026 State of the Union that Americans are still hurting economically","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4483,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Some Democratic lawmakers will stage a visible protest stunt at the February 24, 2026 State of the Union","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4482,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Trump will attack the Supreme Court justices in attendance during his February 24, 2026 State of the Union address","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[4481,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","At the February 24, 2026 State of the Union, Democratic members of Congress will remain seated for moments they should stand for","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",19],[3683,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","When the 150-day limit on his Section 122 tariffs expires (around late July 2026), Trump will invoke Section 122 again rather than seek tariff authority from Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-24","2026-02-24","2026-07-20","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-24",20],[6523,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","The United States will attack Iran imminently (within weeks of late February 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-23","2026-02-23","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[5969,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The tariff-refund litigation following the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling will cost US taxpayers at least billions of dollars","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-23","2026-02-23",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[5968,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Despite the Supreme Court striking down the IEEPA tariffs, Trump will re-impose essentially the same tariff regime using other statutory authorities","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-23","2026-02-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[5501,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Republicans will come out ahead of Democrats on net from the 2026 mid-decade congressional redistricting fight","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-23","2026-02-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[5186,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The headline investment pledges made to the US by Japan, South Korea, Britain and the EU in their trade deals will not actually be delivered","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-23","2026-02-23",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[4480,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","In his February 24, 2026 State of the Union address, Trump will declare that the state of the union is strong (or use a superlative such as amazing/unbelievable/spectacular)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-23","2026-02-23","2026-02-24","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[3681,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Judge Aileen Cannon's order permanently blocking release of Volume 2 of Jack Smith's special counsel report will be appealed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-23","2026-02-23",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[3680,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Medicaid enrollees will lose their Medicaid coverage after the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-23","2026-02-23","2026-11-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[3194,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Florida property-tax elimination referendum will pass with the required 60% of the vote in November 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-23","2026-02-23","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-23",20],[3679,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","People currently on Medicaid will lose their coverage after the November 2026 midterms, when the Republican-enacted Medicaid cuts take effect","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-22","2026-02-22","2026-11-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-22",20],[3678,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will grant Ghislaine Maxwell clemency — either a pardon or a commutation of her sentence — before the end of his term","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-22","2026-02-22","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-22",20],[3677,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Republicans will lose control of the House in the November 2026 midterms, costing Mike Johnson the speakership","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-22","2026-02-22","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-22",20],[6189,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","No one will be held accountable for the killing of 18-year-old American citizen Nasrallah Abu Syam by Israeli settlers in the West Bank","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-21","2026-02-21",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-21",20],[6188,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The bipartisan Khanna-Massie war powers resolution to stop Trump from unilaterally attacking Iran will fail to rein in the administration","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-21","2026-02-21","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-21",20],[5696,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will leave power quietly at the end of his term rather than attempting to stay in office","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-21","2026-02-21","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-21",20],[4741,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","A major U.S. military strike on Iran will come around the middle of March 2026, at the end of Ramadan","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-21","2026-02-21","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-21",20],[7984,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Courts will not order broad refunds of tariff revenue already collected under the invalidated tariff program.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[7313,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","A basket of SaaS stocks - Adobe, Figma, ServiceNow and Salesforce - will deliver strong returns from February 2026 onward","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[7311,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US will conduct a military strike on Iran imminently (within weeks of February 20, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[7310,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Foreign nations will start banning US tech companies as their ultimate form of reciprocal tariff","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[6694,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Barack Obama will not be arrested over leaking classified information about aliens/Area 51","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[6187,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Iran will not agree to give up its ballistic missiles","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[6185,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US strike on Iran will come on the night of Friday February 20 or on Saturday February 21, 2026 (US time)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2026-02-21","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[5695,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The House-passed Republican election bill (the SAVE Act, adding voter ID and proof-of-citizenship requirements) will not pass the Senate","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[5498,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Chicago Bears will move to northern Indiana","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4738,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","France will descend into civil war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4737,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United Kingdom will descend into civil war","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4736,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The UK's Labour government will not allow the United States to use British air bases (e.g., RAF Fairford) for strikes on Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4735,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger will not comply with the Georgia State Election Board's subpoena and will fight it rather than appear","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4734,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's plan to abolish the personal income tax and fund the federal government with tariff revenue will not happen","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4733,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The question of refunding tariffs collected under IEEPA will be pushed down to the lower federal courts and will remain tied up in litigation for years","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4479,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Andrew Mountbatten Windsor (the former Prince Andrew) will not receive a life sentence in the UK misconduct-in-public-office case","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[4476,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","uncertain","King Charles III will leave the British throne (abdicate or step down) within six months of February 2026, i.e. by about August 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2026-08-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[3672,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will enter a war with Iran, with US military conflict beginning by roughly spring/summer 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-20","2026-02-20","2026-09-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-20",20],[7982,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will not agree in the current negotiations to end its nuclear program, ballistic-missile program, and support for terrorism.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[7981,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Wes Moore will not win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[6693,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The U.S. and Iran will not reach a deal to defuse the February 2026 standoff","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[6182,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","House Republicans will not strip Rep. Randy Fine of his committee assignments or force him to resign","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[6181,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The United States will go to war with Turkey on Israel's behalf (she frames this as coming within roughly the next one to ten years)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5694,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The tariff rebate checks promised by the White House will never actually be sent to Americans","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5495,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Reid Hoffman will be targeted by the Department of Justice over his Jeffrey Epstein ties","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5494,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Any imminent US military action against Iran will not include a ground invasion or US forces holding Iranian territory","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-06-30","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5493,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","US figure skater Amber Glenn will not win a medal at the 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-02-22","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5492,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The average American tax refund for the 2026 filing season will be about 11% higher than the prior year","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-04-30","2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5184,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The American public will not support a US war with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5181,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","US military deaths in a war with Iran will not reach the tens of thousands","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5180,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","A US war with Iran will be fought as a weeks-long air campaign ending in a declared victory, and the US will not put large ground forces into Iran or occupy it","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[5179,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The United States will launch a military attack on Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[4732,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Iran will not have a nuclear warhead deliverable on a ballistic missile within the next year (it is years away, not months)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2027-02-19","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[4731,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ICE agents will be stationed around polling places during the 2026 elections to check for illegal aliens voting","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[4475,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Blake Lively v. Justin Baldoni case will not be disposed of on Baldoni's motion for summary judgment; it will instead settle or proceed to the trial set for May 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[4474,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Andrew Mountbatten Windsor (formerly Prince Andrew) will not be sentenced to life in prison in the UK misconduct-in-public-office case arising from the Epstein files","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-19","2026-02-19",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-19",20],[6691,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will win control of Congress in the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[6522,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Paramount, not Netflix, will end up acquiring Warner (Warner Bros. Discovery)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-18","2026-02-18",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[6521,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win a majority in the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[6178,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will run for president in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[6176,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will attack Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[5964,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","New York City rents will rise under Mayor Mamdani's proposed tax increase (NYC rents higher by the end of 2026 than at the time of the claim)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[5692,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US consumer prices will keep rising through 2026 (inflation will stay above zero for the year)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[5691,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will get through the State of the Union address (Feb 24, 2026) without a major meltdown in which he completely loses his ability to speak","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-02-24","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[4729,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","State authorities will take over election administration in counties like Fulton County, Georgia and Maricopa County, Arizona before the 2026 elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[4728,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ICE agents will be posted outside polling places during the 2026 elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[4726,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Tren de Aragua defendant in the Dallas capital murder case will go free after two hung juries rather than be convicted","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[4725,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Democratic legal team's Georgia suit to recover the seized 2020 ballots will fail for lack of standing","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[4723,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not carry out a two-to-four-week sustained bombing campaign against Tehran/Iran","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-18","2026-02-18","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-18",20],[6690,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Fox News will cease to exist as its older audience dies off","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-17","2026-02-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[6174,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","No Epstein co-conspirator or client (such as Les Wexner or Leon Black) will be criminally prosecuted","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[6172,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-17","2026-02-17",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[5689,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[5489,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Jeremy Carl will be confirmed by the Senate as Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-12-31","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[5488,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Virginia Democrats will get their new congressional map (leaving a single Republican district) in place by the 2028 elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2028-11-07","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[5487,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Virginia's new Democratic-drawn congressional map (the one leaving a single Republican district) will not be in effect for the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[5178,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","No Democrat will unseat Randy Fine in Florida's 6th congressional district in the November 2026 election; the seat will be decided in the Republican primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[4722,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The UK's and France's pledges to put troops on the line of contact in Ukraine will not materialize, and the burden will fall on the United States instead","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[4721,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will not agree to commit American troops to Ukraine as part of a 20-year security guarantee","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-17","2026-02-17",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[4719,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The SAVE Act election-integrity bill will not be voted on or enacted in Congress","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[4718,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's forthcoming nationwide executive order on elections will be challenged in court almost immediately after it is issued","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[4715,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Virginia courts will not block the April 21, 2026 redistricting referendum","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2026-04-21","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[3667,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Gavin Newsom will run for president in the 2028 Democratic presidential race","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-17","2026-02-17","2028-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-17",20],[5959,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","China will not make a military move on Taiwan while Trump is president (through January 2029)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[5486,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Biggs will be elected the next governor of Arizona in the November 2026 election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[5177,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Justice Department's attempt to close out the Epstein files with Pam Bondi's February 2026 letter will fail, and more Epstein records will come out during 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[5175,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The incoming class of insurgent/progressive House Democrats will not challenge Hakeem Jeffries and will vote for him as House Democratic leader for the next Congress","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2026-11-30","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[5174,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Gavin Newsom will run for president in 2028","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2028-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[5173,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","In the 2026 election cycle, sitting House Democratic incumbents will lose primaries to insurgent left/progressive challengers","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[4714,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Peter Schweizer's book 'The Invisible Coup' will hit a fourth consecutive week at #1 on the New York Times bestseller list","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-16","2026-02-16","2026-03-01","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-16",20],[6170,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States and Iran will not reach a negotiated nuclear deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-14","2026-02-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-14",20],[5686,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","A Republican will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-14","2026-02-14","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-14",20],[4712,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will issue an executive order imposing a national voter-ID requirement for the November 2026 federal midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-14","2026-02-14","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-14",20],[4473,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","CNN will not survive as a network","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-14","2026-02-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-14",20],[4472,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nancy Guthrie's abduction will not turn out to have been targeted because of who her daughter Savannah Guthrie is","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-14","2026-02-14",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-14",20],[7980,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The February 13 DHS funding deadline will produce a partial federal government shutdown.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-02-14","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[7308,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Kalshi will be the most sought-after IPO of Q2 or Q3 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-09-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[7307,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The market capitalizations of the biggest AI companies will fall sharply during 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[7306,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will dramatically scale back its capex and end up worth only $100-200 billion","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[7305,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI will not complete an IPO in 2026 or early 2027","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2027-06-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[6689,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Fox News, CNN and MSNBC will see a spike in viewership once the November 2026 midterm cycle gets underway","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-11-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[6520,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","By the end of the Trump administration it will be revealed that Barron Trump and other Trump-administration-linked figures made large profits betting on prediction markets","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[6168,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Florida legislation empowering the state to designate domestic and foreign 'terrorist organizations' (HB 1471 / SB 1632) will pass","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[5685,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Pam Bondi will leave the office of U.S. Attorney General, either fired or forced to resign","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[4711,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jasmine Crockett will win the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary (March 3, 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-03-03","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[3663,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Senate will pass the resolution revoking Trump's tariffs on Canada","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[3662,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will veto the congressional resolution revoking his tariffs once it reaches his desk","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-13","2026-02-13","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-13",20],[6687,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Trump will publicly address/comment on the Turning Point USA halftime show","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[6686,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Donald Trump will publicly say the phrase \"Bad Bunny\" before the end of February 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-02-28","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[6167,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The January 2026 jobs report (reported as ~130,000 payroll jobs added) will be revised in a subsequent BLS release","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-04-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[6166,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Congress will not enact a cap on credit-card interest rates","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[6165,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Attorney General Pam Bondi will not resign","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[6164,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The United States will go to war with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[5683,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not be removed from office or stripped of presidential powers under the 25th Amendment","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[5681,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not leave office before the scheduled end of his term on January 20, 2029 for any reason other than his death or true medical incapacity","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[5172,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Iran will not agree to give up its ballistic missile program in any deal with the United States","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[5171,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will again take kinetic military action against Iran because pressure short of war will not topple the Iranian government","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[5169,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The next presidential administration will cut ICE's budget to essentially zero or abolish the agency outright","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2033-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[5168,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The next presidential administration will enact a mass legalization of roughly 20 to 30 million people living in the US illegally","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2033-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4710,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","US corporations will spend roughly $700-800 billion on AI capital expenditure in 2026, most of it debt-financed","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4709,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The congressional measure to end the Canadian tariffs will not become law — it will go nowhere and Trump would veto it","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4708,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will not actually go into recess over the February 2026 President's Day break (it will hold pro forma sessions), so Trump will not be able to make recess appointments","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-02-23","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4707,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Save America Act, Trump's top legislative priority, will not be enacted before the November 2026 election","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4706,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Karrin Taylor Robson's suspension of her Arizona governor campaign is tantamount to dropping out — she will not return as a candidate in the 2026 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2026-08-04","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4705,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Trump's executive-order reforms to the H-1B program (including the $100,000 fee) will not work — they will fail to curb H-1B hiring","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12","2027-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[4470,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nancy Guthrie was not killed earlier in the evening at her daughter Annie's house; she was alive in her own home when the intruder took her in the early hours of February 1, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-12","2026-02-12",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-12",20],[6685,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","By 2037 roughly one in four U.S. homes will be vacant as the boomer generation dies off","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2037-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",20],[6684,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The United States will not invade Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",20],[6683,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will remain Iran's Supreme Leader (will not be removed from the post)","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11",null,"2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",20],[6682,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The U.S. government will not confirm the existence of aliens before 2027","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",20],[6163,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Trump EPA's rescission of the 2009 greenhouse-gas endangerment finding will be challenged in court","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",20],[6162,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Republicans will be punished at the ballot box in the November 2026 midterm elections because of voter frustration over the economy","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5957,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","All three liberal justices will vote against the Trump administration in the tariffs case","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5956,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Justice Brett Kavanaugh will vote to uphold the president's tariff authority","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5955,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Justice Clarence Thomas will vote in favor of the president's tariff authority","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5954,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","One of Justice Gorsuch or Justice Barrett will vote against the administration in the tariffs case","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5953,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Chief Justice John Roberts will write the majority opinion upholding the tariffs","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5952,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Supreme Court will decide the Trump tariffs case by a 5-4 vote","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[5951,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The U.S. Supreme Court will uphold President Trump's IEEPA tariffs in Trump v. V.O.S. Selections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4704,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The rebuilt Gaza envisioned in Trump's plan (a 'new Tel Aviv' or Miami Beach) will not actually be built during Trump's presidency, which runs through January 2029","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2029-01-20","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4702,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will not take up or pass the Save America Act after its one-vote House passage; it lacks 60 votes and the votes to move to a talking filibuster","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4701,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will not lose in the November 2026 midterms (they will keep control of Congress)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4699,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Save America Act (voter ID / voter-roll purge / mail-in ballot bill) will not advance in the Senate even after passing the House","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4698,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","No candidate will clear 50%+1 in the March 3, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, so the race will go to a runoff","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-03-03","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4697,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary (Paxton/Cornyn/Hunt) will be the most expensive Republican primary in US history","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-03-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4696,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Netanyahu will not enter the White House through the staff/side door on his Feb 11, 2026 visit; the arrangement will be renegotiated so he arrives in view of the assembled international press","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4469,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nancy Guthrie's abductor will turn out to be either a family member or someone targeting her because of Savannah Guthrie, not a random stranger","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[4468,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nancy Guthrie will not be found alive","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[3659,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S. House will pass resolutions blocking Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and other countries within days of February 11, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11","2026-02-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[3658,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Federal Judge Richard Leon will issue a preliminary injunction blocking further construction of Trump's White House ballroom","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-11","2026-02-11",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-11",21],[7979,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Democratic nominee will win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[7978,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Democratic nominee will win Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[7977,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Democratic nominee will win North Carolina's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[7976,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","U.S. annual real GDP growth will not reach 15 percent in any calendar year through 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[7975,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Steve Bannon will launch a presidential campaign in the 2028 election cycle.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[7302,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","AI will crash in 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[6161,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Progressive Anna Lilia Mejia will win the New Jersey 11th District congressional seat","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[6159,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The current US-Iran nuclear talks will not produce a deal; they are a stalling tactic while the US gets militarily ready","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[5483,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The final measured audience for TPUSA's All-American Halftime Show (Feb 8, 2026) will come in at approximately 50 million viewers","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-03-31","2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[5482,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Biggs will win the November 2026 Arizona governor's race and become Arizona's next governor","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[5167,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not add an investor ban on home purchases to the pending bipartisan housing legislation","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4695,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will hold the U.S. House majority in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4694,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","John Cornyn's side will have spent $100 million on the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4692,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will pass a short-term continuing resolution for Department of Homeland Security funding rather than completing a full DHS funding deal at the mid-February 2026 deadline, because the Senate leaves for the Munich Security Conference","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-02-20","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4691,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary will be the most expensive primary in U.S. history","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-03-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4467,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The masked man filmed at Nancy Guthrie's front door will be identified and caught","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-10","2026-02-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4466,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Bitcoin ransom demands sent to TMZ and Tucson news outlets will turn out to have come from opportunistic scammers unconnected to Nancy Guthrie's abductor","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[4465,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nancy Guthrie was murdered by her abductor rather than being held alive for ransom by a kidnapper","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[3656,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Upcoming U.S. monthly jobs reports (after Feb 10, 2026) will be terrible, showing weak or negative job growth","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-10","2026-02-10","2026-06-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-10",21],[5950,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Cuban Communist government will fall soon - within roughly a year of February 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2027-02-28","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[5166,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Federal regulators will not crack down on prediction markets and sports gambling during the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2029-01-20","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[5164,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will face no consequences for lying about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-09","2026-02-09",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[5163,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Netanyahu will succeed in pushing Trump away from a nuclear-only deal with Iran, either by expanding US demands to ballistic missiles/regional issues or by getting renewed military action","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-09","2026-02-09",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[5162,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The US will take further kinetic military action against Iran rather than letting the current standoff pass without more strikes","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-09","2026-02-09",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[4690,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Turning Point USA's All-American Halftime Show will end up with 40 to 50 million total viewers","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2026-02-28","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[4689,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Maryland will redraw its congressional map to give Democrats all 8 of its U.S. House seats (8-0) before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[4688,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger will push through a new congressional map giving Democrats 10 of Virginia's 11 U.S. House seats before the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[3189,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Senate Republicans will NOT use the nuclear option (a simple-majority rules change) to push the SAVE Act through before the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2026-11-03","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[3188,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Britain will be under jihadist/Islamist rule, with Buckingham Palace run by jihadists, within 20 years (by roughly 2046)","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-09","2026-02-09","2046-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-09",21],[6158,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US unemployment will reach 20% because of AI-driven job losses","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-07","2026-02-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-07",21],[6157,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US stock market is going to crash","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-07","2026-02-07",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-07",21],[4686,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal 2020-election ballot investigation that began in Fulton County, Georgia will expand to Arizona","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-07","2026-02-07","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-07",21],[4685,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Mike Lindell will be elected governor of Minnesota in November 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-02-07","2026-02-07","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-02-17",21],[3645,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS will end in a settlement rather than a litigated verdict","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-07","2026-02-07",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-07",21],[3644,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Virginia's new redistricting effort will eliminate four Republican-held congressional seats","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-07","2026-02-07","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-07",21],[3643,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will net more U.S. House seats out of the 2025-26 mid-decade redistricting fight than Republicans do","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-07","2026-02-07","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-07",21],[7301,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Over the next 12 to 24 months (by roughly February 2028) entire nations will ban major US social media platforms such as YouTube and Meta as a form of reciprocal economic retaliation","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2028-02-29","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[7299,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OnlyFans will generate more revenue than The New York Times in 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[7298,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","OpenAI's ~$850 billion valuation will be its all-time high water mark; it will not be valued higher","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-06","2026-02-06",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[7297,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Within 12 months (by roughly February 2027) Anthropic will be more valuable than OpenAI","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2027-02-06","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[6155,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","A spectacular US stock market crash is coming","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[6154,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","A staunchly pro-Israel Republican like Ted Cruz has no chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[5949,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","No Senate Democrat will vote for the SAVE America Act - Republicans will get zero Democratic votes on it","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[5161,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Democratic nominee will win the New Jersey 11th district special general election in April 2026 by a double-digit margin","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2026-04-30","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[4684,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Kevin Warsh will become Chair of the Federal Reserve (not Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wearing both hats)","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[4683,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Utah capital prosecution of Tyler Robinson (accused of assassinating Charlie Kirk) will never go to trial — it will be resolved by a plea deal that takes capital murder off the table","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[3641,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Trump will not donate to charity the $10 billion he is seeking from the federal government in his IRS/Treasury data-breach lawsuit","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-02-06","2026-02-06",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[3639,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","House Oversight Republicans will insist that Bill and Hillary Clinton be deposed privately rather than accept the public Epstein hearing the Clintons offered","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2026-12-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[3638,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will come out of the 2025-26 mid-decade redistricting fight with a net gain of U.S. House seats relative to Republicans heading into the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-06","2026-02-06","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[3187,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Billie Eilish will not give up or hand over her Malibu home to the Native American tribe whose ancestral land she says it sits on","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-06","2026-02-06",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-06",21],[7974,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Steve Bannon will not win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-05","2026-02-05","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[6153,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US-Iran peace/nuclear negotiations will fall apart","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5680,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Members of Trump's family will face criminal legal consequences once Trump is no longer president and can no longer protect them","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5679,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will never spend a single day in a jail or prison cell","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5677,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win control of the US House (regaining subpoena power) in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5160,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Trump administration, driven by Stephen Miller, will return to Minneapolis-style aggressive ICE surge tactics after the current pullback","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5159,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Trump will not shift to an employer/business-targeted mass-deportation strategy (universal E-Verify or systematic raids on major agricultural, food-processing and hospitality employers)","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5158,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Federal immigration-enforcement personnel will fully exit Minneapolis within a few months (by roughly May 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05","2026-05-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5157,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Trump administration will strike a plea deal with Nicolas Maduro in exchange for him saying the 2020 U.S. election was rigged for Joe Biden","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[5156,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The U.S. Supreme Court will eventually strike down Trump's tariffs","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[4464,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Nancy Guthrie, the missing 84-year-old mother of Savannah Guthrie, will not be found alive","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[3634,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The US national debt will keep rising above its current level of about $38 trillion under the Trump administration","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[3633,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Democrats will net-gain US House seats in the November 2026 midterms from the new Democratic-drawn maps in Virginia and other states","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[3186,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Bill Gates, rather than Bill Clinton, will be the figure who takes the fall in the Epstein files fallout","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-02-05","2026-02-05",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-05",21],[7972,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Democratic panel members will use Bill Clinton's February 2026 deposition to question him about Donald Trump's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-02-28","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[7971,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Bill and Hillary Clinton will not admit in their scheduled February 2026 congressional depositions to sexual relationships with people trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-02-28","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[6518,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Republicans will lose the U.S. House badly in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[6152,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","AI-driven job losses will push US unemployment to 10-20%","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[6151,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Israel will not give back the roughly 53% of Gaza it has taken","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[6150,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US-Iran nuclear negotiations will fail to produce a deal","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[6149,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will go to war with Iran","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[5948,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Federal review of the $83 billion Netflix-Warner Bros. Discovery merger will take at least several months from February 2026, and possibly up to a year, before a decision is reached","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2027-02-28","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[5947,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The US-Iran negotiating session scheduled for Friday, February 6, 2026 will produce nothing positive or productive (no agreement or breakthrough)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-02-06","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[5676,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not be impeached again by the House before the end of his term on January 20, 2029","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[5675,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not be removed from office before the end of his term on January 20, 2029","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[5478,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Tyler Robinson will be found guilty at trial in the Charlie Kirk killing","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-02-04","2026-02-04",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[5477,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Republicans will win back the Texas state Senate District 9 seat in the November 2026 election","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[4680,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will win the November 2026 midterm elections","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[3185,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Buckingham Palace will be Islamic within about 20 years (by ~2046)","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-04","2026-02-04","2046-12-31","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[3184,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Ilhan Omar will be charged/prosecuted over the fraud surrounding her and her husband's finances","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-02-04","2026-02-04",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[3182,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Someone will kill an ICE agent","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-04","2026-02-04",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-04",21],[7296,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will fold Tesla into the combined SpaceX/xAI entity","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[7295,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Federal immigration enforcement will carry out a mass detention operation in Ohio","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[7294,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The DOJ will be forced to release additional Epstein files beyond the ~3.5 million pages released in early February 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[6148,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Epstein abuse allegations will never be adjudicated in a court of law","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[6147,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congress will not block the $6.5 billion US arms package to Israel","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5671,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will gain at least 25 US House seats in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5670,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","MAGA will die as a political movement when Donald Trump's presidency ends (by January 20, 2029)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5476,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The 2030 Census reapportionment will move congressional seats and electoral votes away from blue states because of out-migration","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2030-12-31","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5475,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Senator Susan Collins will not support/vote for the SAVE Act","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-08","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5474,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Senator Lisa Murkowski will not support/vote for the SAVE Act","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5473,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Mitch McConnell will not support/vote for the SAVE Act","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5472,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The SAVE Act (proof-of-citizenship voting bill) has the support of at least 51 U.S. senators","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5154,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not pass legislation closing the presidential/presidential-family ethics and divestment loopholes","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[5153,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will not win the November 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[4676,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Senate will not eliminate the legislative filibuster during this Congress","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2027-01-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[4675,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","ICE agents will be deployed around polling places during the November 2026 midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-02-04",21],[4463,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Justin Bieber will be placed under a conservatorship within about six months (by ~August 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2026-08-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[4462,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Billie Eilish will never give her Los Angeles mansion back to the Tongva tribe","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[4461,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will overturn Judge Ana Reyes's ruling blocking the Trump administration from ending temporary protected status for Haitians","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03",null,"2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[4460,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Savannah Guthrie will speak publicly to the media about her mother's disappearance within days (by ~mid-February 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-03","2026-02-03","2026-02-10","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-03",21],[6517,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-02","2026-02-02","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[5946,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The $2 million Westchester, NY detransitioner malpractice verdict will not be the last such lawsuit — more will follow","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-02-02","2026-02-02",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[5945,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The government funding package will pass the House with a coalition of both Republicans and Democrats","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-02-02","2026-02-02","2026-02-28","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[5944,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The House will pass the DHS funding measure and Trump will sign it, ending the partial shutdown, by Tuesday February 3, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-02","2026-02-02","2026-02-03","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[5471,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","John Bolton will end up incarcerated (in jail/prison)","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-02-02","2026-02-02",null,"2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[4673,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The November 2026 midterms will be a Democratic wave on the scale of the 2010 Tea Party wave (roughly 60+ US House seats changing hands), not a smaller 2018-style wave","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-02","2026-02-02","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[4672,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Jerome Powell will no longer be at the Federal Reserve as chair by the end of May 2026 at the latest","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-02-02","2026-02-02","2026-05-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[4458,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Don Lemon's First Amendment/journalist defense will not be upheld by the courts in his Face Act and Klan Act case","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-02-02","2026-02-02",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",21],[4457,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will rule in favor of keeping biological boys out of girls' school sports in the case argued in January 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-02","2026-02-02","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-02",22],[3628,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Todd Blanche will become the new U.S. Attorney General or acting Attorney General (by roughly mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-01","2026-02-01","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-01",22],[3627,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pam Bondi will resign as U.S. Attorney General soon (by roughly mid-2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-02-01","2026-02-01","2026-06-30","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-02-01",22],[6681,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Within one to two years (by roughly early 2028) humanoid robots will be able to learn a physical task simply by watching a human perform it","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-31","2026-01-31","2028-01-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[6145,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Continued US strike missions in the Middle East will cost the US an aircraft or a ship to hostile fire","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[6142,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The US will carry out military strikes on Iran within days (by roughly the first week of February 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31","2026-02-08","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[5943,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The shutdown starting around January 30, 2026 will be smaller in scope than the previous (43-day) shutdown because most appropriations bills have already passed","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-31","2026-01-31","2026-02-28","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[5942,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Democrats will force a government shutdown over DHS/ICE funding at the end of January 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31","2026-02-28","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[5667,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","An ICE or Border Patrol agent will be killed in the course of the escalating immigration-enforcement confrontations","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[4671,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Texas Senate under Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick will hold hearings on Sharia law and related Islamist issues in 2026 to tee up a special session of the Texas legislature","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31","2026-12-31","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[4670,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair will not end, abolish or break up the Federal Reserve; his changes will be marginal reforms only","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[3625,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Epstein survivors will file a lawsuit against the Justice Department over its failure to redact their identifying information in the released Epstein files","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-31","2026-01-31","2026-03-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-31",22],[7969,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The January 2026 federal funding deadline will not produce a full government shutdown.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7293,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The next major federal immigration enforcement surge will target Haitian immigrants in Ohio","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7292,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The US will conduct a coordinated military strike on Iran within 7 to 14 days (by roughly February 13, 2026)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-13","2026-08-09","NO",0,1,"late",15,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7291,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Lady Gaga Redfin/Rocket Mortgage spot will be the best ad of the February 2026 Super Bowl","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-08","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7290,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Amazon will be the best-performing big tech stock of 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7289,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Elon Musk will merge Tesla into xAI","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7288,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Waymo will become a trillion-dollar company on its own","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6680,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Donald Trump will not leave the presidency before January 20, 2029","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6516,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg will not publicly stand up for Don Lemon over his arrest (in the two weeks following the late-January 2026 arrest)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-13","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6141,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","None of the alleged Epstein co-conspirators will ever be prosecuted","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6140,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","US unemployment will reach at least 10% as a result of AI-driven job losses","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6139,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The US will pursue a regime-change war against Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6138,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","When the reported Gaza death toll rises well above the ~71,000 figure the IDF has now accepted, Israel and its defenders will publicly accuse the Palestinians of inflating the numbers","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6137,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","After the Minnesota drawdown, the Trump administration will not resume aggressive masked, warrantless mass street immigration sweeps","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6136,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Deportations will increase under Tom Homan's leadership of immigration enforcement","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[6135,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congress will break DHS funding out of the appropriations package and pass funding for the rest of the government separately, rather than splitting the budget bill by bill","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-28","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5941,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The federal school-choice provision Cruz authored will produce tens of billions of dollars in scholarships for American kids","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5940,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Employer contributions/matching into Trump Accounts will become a standard, ubiquitous employee benefit, as 401(k) matching did","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5939,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Trump Accounts will hold trillions of dollars in aggregate within a couple of years (by roughly 2028)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5938,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Starting July 4, 2026, every child in America will have a Trump Account (private investment account) opened for them","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-07-04","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5470,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Luigi Mangione will not be sentenced to death or executed for the killing of the UnitedHealthcare CEO","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-08","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5152,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The litigation over Kristi Noem's termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians and Venezuelans will ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[5150,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Federal immigration agents will move into Springfield, Ohio next and begin sweeping up and deporting Haitian migrants there","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-12-31","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4669,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republican Leigh Wambsganss will win the Texas state Senate District 9 special election held January 31, 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-01-31","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4668,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Congress will not enact the Senate Democrats' demand that ICE obtain a judge-signed warrant for every enforcement action","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4667,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal government will shut down on Saturday, January 31, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-01-31","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4666,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Minneapolis and Minnesota officials will not change their sanctuary policies or allow federal immigration enforcement to operate","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4665,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","There will be a U.S. federal government shutdown out of the DHS appropriations fight in early 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4456,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","uncertain","Don Lemon will be released from federal custody pending trial rather than held","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[4455,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Don Lemon's producer will also be federally charged/arrested over the January 18, 2026 St. Paul church disruption","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[3623,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The House of Representatives will not vote on the appropriations compromise before Monday, February 2, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-02","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[3621,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will launch a military strike on Iran within roughly a week of January 29, 2026","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[3620,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The United States will carry out a military strike on Iran in the near term (within weeks of late January 2026)","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-30","2026-01-30","2026-02-28","2026-07-30","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[3618,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Tulsi Gabbard and the Trump administration will publicly claim that their review of the seized Fulton County 2020 ballots found tampering/fraud","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-30","2026-01-30",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-30",22],[7968,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Trump administration will not release all Epstein files required for public disclosure during Donald Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[7967,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Don Lemon will avoid criminal punishment for his role in the January 2026 Cities Church disruption.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[7966,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Iran will not accept the current U.S. demands to denuclearize, shut down its ballistic-missile program, and cease supporting terror groups.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[7965,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Congress will enact funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the current appropriations dispute.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[7964,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The federal government will conduct a full legal investigation of the Border Patrol shooting of Alex Pretti.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[6679,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Kristi Noem will leave her post as Secretary of Homeland Security","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[6676,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","uncertain","Democrats will win control of Congress in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[5149,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Republicans will lose control of the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[5148,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Minneapolis drawdown is only a tactical retreat: the Trump administration will mount another aggressive ICE occupation of a U.S. city","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[5147,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Stephen Miller will remain in the Trump White House and keep driving immigration policy","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[5146,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not roll back ICE funding in the current DHS appropriations fight","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-12-31","2026-08-01","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[5145,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Susan Collins will lose her Maine U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[4664,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrats will not win control of the U.S. Senate in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-11-03","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[4663,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will be criminally indicted","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[4662,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal government will obtain Minnesota's/Minneapolis's voter rolls","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29","2026-11-30","2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[4661,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Operation Metro Surge, the federal immigration enforcement surge in Minneapolis, will not be stopped or stood down","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[4660,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","People involved in the 2020 election in Fulton County, Georgia will face criminal charges","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-07-30","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[3613,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","A federal court (Judge Leon) will permanently enjoin or block Trump from demolishing the East Wing and building his White House ballroom","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-29","2026-01-29",null,"2026-07-30",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-29",22],[7963,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","ICE will receive the funding at issue in the spending legislation due January 30, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7962,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The fatal Border Patrol shooting of Alex Pretti will be upheld as lawful.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7961,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Democratic proposal to require a judicial criminal warrant for every ICE arrest will not become law during the current Congress.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7960,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Minneapolis will not reverse its sanctuary-city policy in the current negotiations with the Trump administration.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7959,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Minneapolis will not change its sanctuary-city behavior and begin cooperating with ICE as a result of the current talks with Tom Homan.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7957,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The current U.S. effort to negotiate an agreement under which Iran gives up its nuclear program will be unsuccessful.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7956,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S. federal government will enter a shutdown on Friday, January 30, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7955,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Trump administration will deport all undocumented immigrants from the United States during Donald Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[5936,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The Cuban communist regime will fall next, following the fall of Maduro in Venezuela","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[5665,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration will not change its immigration enforcement policy despite the personnel shuffle and the Minneapolis backlash","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[5664,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Greg Bovino will not be publicly seen or heard from again as a visible leader of Trump's immigration crackdown after leaving Minneapolis","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[5663,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Greg Bovino will not be the last Trump administration official removed or demoted over the immigration-enforcement crackdown","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[5662,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","In the weeks after late January 2026, Republican officeholders in swing states will publicly press Trump to change course on his immigration/ICE enforcement approach ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2026-04-30","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[5144,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will not win the open Iowa U.S. Senate seat in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2026-11-03","2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[3181,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Jacksonville mayor Donna Deegan will lose her fight with Ron DeSantis over refusing to cooperate with ICE","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[3180,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Stephen Colbert will not run for president","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-28","2026-01-28","2028-11-07","2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[3179,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The US will carry out a military attack/strikes on Iran","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-28","2026-01-28",null,"2026-07-29",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-28",22],[7954,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will win control of at least one chamber of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[7953,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Ted Cruz will run for president in the 2028 election cycle.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[7952,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Tim Walz and Minnesota will not accept the current federal off-ramp by agreeing to law-enforcement cooperation with ICE and transfers of covered detainees.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[7951,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Ro Khanna will run for president in the 2028 election cycle.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[7947,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The U.S. Supreme Court will rule that Donald Trump's worldwide tariffs are unlawful.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5661,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's coherence at the 2026 State of the Union address (expected ~late February 2026) will be notably diminished compared with any of his prior State of the Union addresses","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2026-03-31","2026-08-09","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5660,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's term will end on January 20, 2029 regardless of war, pandemic, or unrest","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5659,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The November 2026 midterm elections will take place; Trump will not be able to cancel or suspend them","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5658,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","ICE/federal immigration agents will start being killed in retaliation for immigration enforcement operations","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5469,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Maryland will redistrict its congressional map ahead of the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-27","2026-01-27","2026-11-03","2026-08-08",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5143,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski will not lose their jobs, despite reporting that they might","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-27","2026-01-27",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5142,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","DHS Secretary Kristi Noem will not lose her job over the Minneapolis ICE crisis","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-27","2026-01-27",null,"2026-08-01","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[5141,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Stephen Miller will not lose his White House job over the Minneapolis ICE backlash","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-27","2026-01-27",null,"2026-08-01",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-27",22],[7941,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Congress will pass an appropriations package funding all then-pending departments except the Department of Homeland Security at the January 30, 2026 deadline.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7940,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The federal shutdown beginning at the January 30, 2026 funding deadline will affect fewer departments and agencies than the preceding federal shutdown.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7939,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Senate Democrats will force a federal government shutdown beginning at the January 30, 2026 funding deadline over DHS and ICE funding.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7937,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Republicans will lose control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7936,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The official investigation into the Alex Pretti shooting will exonerate the officers involved.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-26","2026-01-26",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7935,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The pending federal funding dispute will cause another government shutdown.","Firm",90,"Economy",100,"Audacious","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-01-27",22],[7933,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Gaza's population at the end of 2026 will be larger than it was on October 6, 2023.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2027-06-30","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7931,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Senate Democrats will block the pending funding bill over DHS funding, causing a federal government shutdown.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7930,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The pending federal funding impasse will produce at least a partial government shutdown.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7929,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Lindsey Graham's forthcoming sanctuary-city legislation will include an amnesty provision.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-26","2026-01-26","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-26",22],[7928,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Pia Dandia has a strong chance to defeat Brian Mast and flip Florida's 21st congressional district in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-25","2026-01-25","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-25",22],[7927,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will attack Iran during the military confrontation signaled by the USS Abraham Lincoln deployment.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-24","2026-01-24","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-24",22],[5657,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-24","2026-01-24","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-24",22],[7924,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Don Lemon will face criminal charges over his conduct connected to the January 2026 Minnesota church protest.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7923,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Liam Conejo Ramos and his father will be deported from the United States together.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7922,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will uphold state laws barring transgender girls from competing in girls' school sports in the pending cases.","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7921,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The argument that Minnesota church protesters had permission to enter and then disrupt the service will fail in court.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7918,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The United States will conduct a military strike against Iran during the confrontation signaled by the USS Abraham Lincoln deployment.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7917,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The FCC's removal of the automatic equal-time exemption for television and radio talk shows will not survive legal scrutiny.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7915,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump's lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal over its Epstein birthday-letter report will be dismissed.","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7913,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump's lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase over alleged debanking will be dismissed.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7912,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","At least 70% of independent voters will vote for Democratic candidates in the 2026 federal midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7911,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","A court will grant Nakeema Levy Armstrong relief on a vindictive-prosecution claim arising from the Minnesota church protest case.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7908,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Republicans will retain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7907,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","All 15 million undocumented immigrants whom Bannon says entered during the Biden administration will leave the United States during Donald Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[5656,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Barring his death, Trump will serve out the rest of his term; he will not be removed via the 25th Amendment or impeachment","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[5655,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The United States will not acquire Greenland","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-23","2026-01-23","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-23",22],[7904,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Congress will not codify President Trump's ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes during the current Congress.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7903,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The Trump administration will not actually use antitrust law to break up institutional investors' coordinated vacancy or pricing strategies under the housing order.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7902,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Courts will overturn President Trump's executive-order ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7901,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Usha Vance's fourth child will be born on July 4, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2026-07-04","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7900,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","A component of the U.S. Golden Dome missile-defense system will be deployed in Greenland during Donald Trump's current presidential term.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7899,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The United States will not invade Greenland during Donald Trump's current presidential term.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7896,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Hamas will not fully disarm within the next three weeks.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2026-02-12","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",22],[7895,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","President Trump will take significant action against Iran in response to the Iranian government's 2026 crackdown.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7894,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Scott Bessent will not be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7892,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The United States will not acquire Greenland during Donald Trump's current presidential term.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7890,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Rahm Emanuel will not be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7889,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Democratic nominee will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7888,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7887,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Supreme Court will block President Trump from immediately firing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7886,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","President Trump will use the nuclear option to zero out the SBA Section 8(a) race-based contracting program.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[5654,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Barring his death in office, Trump will remain president until January 20, 2029","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-22","2026-01-22","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[5653,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will give up on his push to acquire Greenland","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-22","2026-01-22",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-22",23],[7885,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[7884,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The United States will acquire Greenland as a U.S. territory by the end of Donald Trump's presidency.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[7883,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will strike down President Trump's tariff regime and will not uphold his asserted tariff power.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[7882,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Judge Paul Engelmayer or Judge Richard Berman will order the release of Epstein-related files after the Justice Department invoked the courts' jurisdiction.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[7879,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Democrats will win control of the United States House in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[7878,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will issue its decision in the pending birthright-citizenship case by the end of summer 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-09-22","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[5650,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","French President Emmanuel Macron will not leave office within a few months of January 2026 (he has roughly a year and a half of his term left)","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-06-30","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[5649,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump's presidency will not be ended by his letter to Norway threatening to take Greenland","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[5648,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will publicly lash out at European leaders over Greenland at/around the Davos meetings in late January 2026","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2026-01-31","2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[5647,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The United States will not control Greenland by the end of Trump's presidency (January 20, 2029)","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-21","2026-01-21","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-21",23],[7877,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Don Lemon will face criminal charges over his conduct connected to the January 2026 Minnesota church protest.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-20","2026-01-20",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-20",23],[7876,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The proposed 2026 California billionaire wealth tax will face formal legal challenges.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-20","2026-01-20",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-20",23],[7872,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The Trump administration will not fully release the Epstein files and will use court litigation to delay or obscure their release.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-20","2026-01-20","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-20",23],[7867,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Supreme Court's pending tariff decision will be a split or partial compromise rather than a categorical ruling for one side.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-20","2026-01-20",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-20",23],[7866,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Republican presidential nominee will win the 2028 United States presidential election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-20","2026-01-20","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-20",23],[7864,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Josh Shapiro will not win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-20","2026-01-20","2028-11-07","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-20",23],[7862,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Evidence will establish that Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey coordinated with anti-ICE activists during the January 2026 unrest.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-19","2026-01-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-19",23],[7861,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Don Lemon will face federal criminal charges for his involvement in the January 2026 disruption of Cities Church in Minnesota.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-19","2026-01-19","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-19",23],[7860,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Supreme Court will strike down Donald Trump's challenged tariffs imposed under emergency economic powers.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-17","2026-01-17","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-17",23],[7859,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Iran will hold a national election that produces a new leader committed to democratic freedom and friendly relations with the United States within the next six months.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7858,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Cuba will hold a national election that produces a new leader committed to democratic freedom and friendly relations with the United States within the next six months.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7857,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Venezuela will hold a national election that produces a new leader committed to democratic freedom and friendly relations with the United States within the next six months.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7856,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Iran's Islamic Republic governing regime will fall within the next six months.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7855,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Cuba's communist governing regime will fall within the next six months.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7854,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Venezuela's Chavista governing regime will fall within the next six months.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-07-16","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7849,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will uphold the challenged Idaho and West Virginia laws barring male athletes from girls' and women's sports.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7845,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Kamala Harris will not win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7843,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Gavin Newsom will win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",100,"Audacious","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],2,"2026-01-16",23],[7840,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","An activist investor will launch a campaign involving Disney within the next 24 months.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2028-01-16","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7839,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The pending Warner Bros. Discovery transaction will remain in CFIUS, antitrust, litigation, or comparable review for at least the next 18 months.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2027-07-16","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7838,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Dina Powell McCormick will orchestrate a large government bailout or financial backstop for the technology sector's data-center investment.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7837,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will attempt to shut down or prevent the 2026 midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[5646,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not seize Greenland by military force","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-16","2026-01-16","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-16",23],[7828,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","United States service members will be killed in the conflict with Iran, and their deaths will be used to deepen United States involvement in the war.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7826,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","A direct war between the United States and Iran will begin by the end of January 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7825,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","The United States will conduct a military strike against Iran by the end of January 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,1,"late",28,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7824,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Federal prosecutors will bring a major RICO case connected to the Minnesota fraud investigations.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7823,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Donald Trump will not launch a prolonged United States military occupation comparable to the Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya interventions during his second term.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7822,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Tim Walz will be jailed by the end of January 2027.","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2027-01-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7820,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7819,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will not pay every Greenland resident $500,000 as part of an effort to acquire Greenland.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7817,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrats will try to cause a federal government shutdown over funding for ICE by February 1, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2026-02-01","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[5645,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will not hold a Senate majority after the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-15","2026-01-15","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[5644,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Donald Trump will not be convicted in a Senate impeachment trial - no impeachment trial will produce the 14-15 Republican votes needed to convict him","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-15","2026-01-15",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-15",23],[7815,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Donald Trump will not cancel the 2026 United States midterm elections.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7814,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Donald Trump will try to veto the No Funds for NATO Invasion Act.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7813,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","Senate Majority Leader John Thune will try to block the No Funds for NATO Invasion Act.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7812,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","House Speaker Mike Johnson will try to block the No Funds for NATO Invasion Act.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7811,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","uncertain","China will increase its purchases of Canadian oil during 2026.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7806,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Justice Samuel Alito will write an opinion in the Supreme Court transgender-athlete cases argued in January 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2026-06-30","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7805,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will rule against Donald Trump's challenged tariff program.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7803,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House and increase their number of House seats in the 2026 midterm election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7802,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal government will shut down during the week of January 19-25, 2026 because Democrats will reject funding that includes money for ICE.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2026-01-25","2026-08-10","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[5643,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The impeachment effort against DHS Secretary Kristi Noem will not succeed in removing her from office","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-14","2026-01-14","2027-01-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[5642,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","No authority will decide to charge the ICE officer who shot Renee Good","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-14","2026-01-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[5641,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be no complete, robust investigation of the ICE shooting of Renee Good because federal authorities are blocking state authorities","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-14","2026-01-14",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-14",23],[7801,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Cuba's current communist governing regime will fall within the next 90 days.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-04-13","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7800,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Iran's current governing regime will fall within the next 90 days.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-04-13","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7799,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will bomb Iran again during the current crisis before genuine peace negotiations succeed.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7798,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Iran's current governing regime will fall before the start of autumn 2027.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2027-09-22","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7797,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The United States will not send thousands of American troops into Iran in response to the protest crisis underway in January 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7796,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will vote 6-3 to uphold the challenged Idaho and West Virginia laws barring male athletes from girls' and women's sports.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7795,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The Supreme Court will uphold the challenged Idaho and West Virginia laws barring male athletes from girls' and women's sports as constitutionally valid.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7794,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Donald Trump will arrange for the United States to take formal control of Greenland in some manner during his second presidential term.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7791,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","The United Kingdom's changes to the tax treatment of non-domiciled residents will reduce rather than increase government revenue in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7790,"Pivot","Scott Galloway","Pivot","high","Major oil companies will not make large capital investments in Venezuela in the near term.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7789,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Jerome Powell will not resign from the Federal Reserve Board before his governor term ends in January 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2028-01-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7788,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","The Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest-rate target unchanged at its next meeting.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-28","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7785,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Ghislaine Maxwell will not receive a new trial.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7784,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump's announced 10 percent cap on credit-card interest will not be legally enforced.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7781,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will issue its ruling in the pending Trump-tariff case on January 14, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-14","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7780,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Supreme Court will issue its ruling in the pending Trump-tariff case on Wednesday, January 14, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-14","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7779,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Jay Feely will win Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7777,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Republican candidate will lose Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7776,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not enact the proposed federal cap on credit-card interest rates during the 119th Congress.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7775,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will control Venezuela's oil during Donald Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7774,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States or Israel could strike Iran on the night of January 13, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-08-10","NO",0,1,"late",46,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7773,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal government will shut down because Democrats try to defund ICE in the January 2026 funding fight.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7772,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Democrats will shut down the federal government over ICE funding in January 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7771,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The federal government will shut down because Democrats refuse to fund ICE in the January 2026 funding fight.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-13","2026-01-13","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[5640,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will not be a fair process for indicting and charging the ICE officer who shot Renee Good","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-13","2026-01-13",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-13",23],[7770,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Iran's Islamic Republic could collapse by the end of January 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-12","2026-01-12","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7768,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The anti-ICE political atmosphere and rhetoric will result in an ICE agent being killed during Donald Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-12","2026-01-12","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7767,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The intensifying anti-ICE protest movement will produce additional confrontations with ICE and eventually additional violence.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-12","2026-01-12","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7760,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The Trump administration will remove all of the approximately 20 million unauthorized immigrants Andrew Kolvet says are in the United States.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-12","2026-01-12","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7759,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","The California petition drive discussed in the episode will cost approximately $9 million by the time it is completed.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-12","2026-01-12",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7758,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Ken Calvert will win election in California's redrawn 41st Congressional District in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-12","2026-01-12","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7757,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","At least 60% of voters in the March 3, 2026 Texas Republican primary will approve the ballot proposition to ban Sharia law in Texas.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-12","2026-01-12","2026-03-03","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7756,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will not provide the security guarantees being sought for Gaza in the current negotiations.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-12","2026-01-12",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7755,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The United States will not provide the American security guarantees sought for Ukraine in the current peace negotiations.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-12","2026-01-12",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-12",23],[7752,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The reported death toll from the current Iranian protest crackdown will rise above 490.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-11","2026-01-11",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-11",23],[7751,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Tens of millions of Americans will be removed from Medicaid within a few months of January 2026 or shortly after the 2026 midterm election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-11","2026-01-11","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-11",23],[7750,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will block the congressional Affordable Care Act subsidy extension from taking effect.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-11","2026-01-11","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-11",23],[7749,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump will block the congressional Venezuela war-powers resolution from taking effect.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-11","2026-01-11","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-11",23],[7748,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Nicolas Maduro's head-of-state immunity argument in his United States criminal case may reach the U.S. Supreme Court.","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-01-10","2026-01-10",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7747,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Donald Trump's administration will try to shield the ICE officer who shot Renee Good from Minnesota prosecution.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-10","2026-01-10",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7746,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Minnesota authorities will bring state criminal charges, likely through a grand-jury indictment, against the ICE officer who shot Renee Good.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-10","2026-01-10",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7745,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The three suspects detained over the assault of a deaf Palestinian man in the West Bank will be released without a criminal conviction for the assault.","Firm",90,"Technology",70,"Bold","2026-01-10","2026-01-10",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7743,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Senate will not provide the 60 votes needed to pass the House-backed three-year Affordable Care Act subsidy extension.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-10","2026-01-10","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7741,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The ICE officer who shot Renee Good will not be criminally prosecuted for the shooting.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-10","2026-01-10",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7740,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump's proposed one-year 10% cap on credit-card interest rates will not take effect on January 20, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-10","2026-01-10","2026-01-20","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[5639,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will be no proper investigation of the ICE shooting of Renee Good and no accountability for the officer who shot her","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-10","2026-01-10",null,"2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[5637,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The November 2026 US midterm elections will take place","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-10","2026-01-10","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[5635,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Senate will not convict Donald Trump on impeachment in 2027, even if Democrats win a Senate majority in the November 2026 midterms","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-10","2026-01-10","2027-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[5634,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","JD Vance will not succeed as a presidential candidate - he will not win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-10","2026-01-10","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-10",23],[7735,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Donald Trump will not enact or implement his proposed broad ban on large institutional investors buying additional single-family homes.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7734,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The Department of Defense will fail its fiscal-year 2026 financial audit.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7733,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","ICE or the Department of Homeland Security will give Jonathan Ross a medal or comparable formal commendation for the Renee Good shooting.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7732,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","ICE or the Department of Homeland Security will conclude that Jonathan Ross committed no wrongdoing in the fatal shooting of Renee Good.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7730,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Israel will conduct another military strike or operation against Iran after January 9, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7728,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Donald Trump's planned approximately 90,000-square-foot White House ballroom will not be completed substantially as proposed during his current presidential term.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7727,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The House-passed bill extending enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies will not become law.","Loose",30,"Government & Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7726,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The ICE officer who shot Renee Good will not face a jury trial over the shooting.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7725,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","New York City's housing administration under Cea Weaver will confiscate property from white families during Zohran Mamdani's mayoral term.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2029-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7722,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","The Supreme Court will issue a decision concerning the challenged Trump tariffs on January 9, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7721,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Anti-ICE mobilizations in New York City, Minneapolis, or Portland will produce additional violence during the January 9-11, 2026 weekend.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-01-11","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7720,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Trump administration will remove every person unlawfully present in the United States during Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[7719,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","France and the United Kingdom will not fulfill their proposed commitment to deploy troops and military hubs near the Russia-Ukraine line of contact.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-09","2026-01-09",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",23],[5633,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Congress will not enact Trump's proposed ~60% increase to a $1.5 trillion FY2027 military budget","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",24],[5632,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The national debt will not be paid down under Trump — the debt will keep growing","Loose",30,"Technology",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",24],[5631,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","There will not be an armed confrontation between the Minnesota National Guard and federal ICE agents","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-09","2026-01-09","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-09",24],[7717,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","The federal government will shut down at the end of January 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7716,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","Donald Trump will not implement a ban on large institutional investors buying additional single-family homes during his current term.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7714,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The conduct and rhetoric of Minneapolis and Minnesota officials toward ICE will result in an ICE agent being killed during Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7713,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Continuing confrontations over ICE enforcement will result in both ICE officers and people trying to impede or hurt ICE officers being killed during Trump's current term.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7712,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Trump Department of Justice will not prosecute the ICE officer who shot Renee Good.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7710,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The Trump Department of Justice will not indict the ICE officer who shot Renee Good.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7709,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Donald Trump will not fire Kristi Noem from her position as secretary of homeland security during his current presidential term.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7708,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Congress will not enact Donald Trump's proposed restrictions on defense-contractor dividends, stock buybacks, or executive compensation during the 119th Congress.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7707,"Breaking Points","Saagar Enjeti","Breaking Points","high","The ICE officer who shot Renee Good has at least an even chance of facing no state or federal indictment over the shooting.","Loose",30,"Immigration",55,"Notable","2026-01-08","2026-01-08",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[5630,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Republicans will not get a red wave in the November 2026 midterms; at best they hold their majorities narrowly","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[5629,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not run for president in 2028","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2028-11-07","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[5628,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The November 2026 midterm elections will not be canceled","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[5627,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not be convicted in a Senate impeachment trial and removed from office","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[5626,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Democrats will not win control of the US Senate in the November 2026 midterms","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-08","2026-01-08","2026-11-03","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-08",24],[7706,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores will both be convicted in the federal criminal case for which they were brought to the United States.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7703,"Tim Pool","Tim Pool","Timcast","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7702,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Congress will not remove Donald Trump from office before the 2026 midterm election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7701,"The Young Turks","Ana Kasparian","The Young Turks","high","During Donald Trump's second term, the United States or Israel will carry out new direct military action against Iran intended to force the Iranian regime to surrender or fall.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7699,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The United States will reach an agreement with Denmark to buy Greenland during Donald Trump's second term.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7698,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The United States will not invade Greenland with military forces during Donald Trump's second term.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7697,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The 2028 Republican presidential nomination will be actively contested rather than a coronation of JD Vance.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7696,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","The revamped CBS Evening News under Tony Dokoupil will not increase its average television audience in 2026 compared with the program's 2025 average.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7695,"The Bulwark","Tim Miller","The Bulwark","high","Democrats will win control of the U.S. House in the 2026 election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7694,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United States will not forcibly seize Greenland during Donald Trump's second term.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7693,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Republicans will not enact a full-scale restructuring of the Affordable Care Act during the 119th Congress.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7690,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Lindsey Halligan's response to Judge David Novak's show-cause order will be insufficient and Novak will initiate or refer professional-discipline proceedings that could affect her law license.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7689,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Federal officials will not remove ICE agents from Minneapolis in response to Mayor Jacob Frey's demand that they leave the city.","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-02-07","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7687,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will become a formal subject or target of a criminal investigation into Minnesota public-benefit fraud by the end of 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7686,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Minnesota Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan will become a formal subject or target of a criminal investigation into Minnesota public-benefit fraud by the end of 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7685,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison will become a formal subject or target of a criminal investigation into Minnesota public-benefit fraud by the end of 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[5625,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","US gasoline prices will not fall much below the low-$3-per-gallon range","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[5624,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will not install or back Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-07","2026-01-07","2026-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-07",24],[7684,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will conduct a military or capture operation inside Colombia directed at President Gustavo Petro or his government by the end of 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7683,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The United States will conduct another military attack against Venezuela by the end of 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7682,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","Colombia will have a different national government in place by August 31, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-08-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7681,"Pivot","Kara Swisher","Pivot","high","Donald Trump will not survive through the end of 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7680,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Song Sung Blue will not be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-01-22","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7679,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Kate Hudson will not win an Academy Award for her performance in Song Sung Blue at the 98th Academy Awards.","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-03-15","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7676,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Tim Walz will not seek the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7675,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Amy Klobuchar will run for Minnesota governor in 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-08-11","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7674,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Amy Klobuchar will run for Minnesota governor in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-06","2026-01-06","2026-08-11","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7673,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Mark Kelly will be found guilty in military proceedings and imprisoned at the U.S. Disciplinary Barracks at Fort Leavenworth.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-06","2026-01-06",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7672,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Mark Kelly will be recalled to active duty and subjected to a court-martial.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-06","2026-01-06",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[5623,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","The Trump administration will not stop at Venezuela — it will launch another military operation/invasion against another country, with Cuba and Colombia the likeliest targets","Loose",30,"Foreign Policy",55,"Notable","2026-01-06","2026-01-06",null,"2026-08-09","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-06",24],[7671,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","The head-of-state-immunity question in Nicolas Maduro's prosecution will reach the U.S. Supreme Court.","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-01-05","2026-01-05",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7670,"Ted Cruz","Ted Cruz","Verdict (Ted Cruz)","high","Nicolas Maduro will assert head-of-state immunity and that issue will be litigated in his current U.S. federal prosecution.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7669,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Congress will override Donald Trump's vetoes of H.R. 131 and H.R. 504 by the end of January 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7668,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The House of Representatives will pass a three-year extension of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies by the end of January 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-01-31","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7667,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","A U.S. federal government shutdown will begin when current funding expires on January 30, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-01-30","2026-08-10","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7664,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Within three months, an NYPD officer will shoot someone to stop that person from killing another person, and the shooting will generate a controversy involving race.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-04-05","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7663,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","uncertain","Within three months, a three-year-old child already known to New York City children's services will die from abuse after a city social worker ignored warning signs.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-04-05","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7662,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Biggs will win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7661,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Andy Biggs will continue to lead the Arizona Republican gubernatorial-primary polls through the 2026 primary.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-08-04","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7659,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Nicolas Maduro will not be convicted on every charge asserted in his current U.S. federal prosecution.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-05","2026-01-05",null,"2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7657,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Venezuelan oil exports to China will be cut off by the end of 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7656,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Tim Walz will leave the Minnesota governorship before his current term ends because he must defend himself in a criminal matter.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2027-01-04","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7655,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","The Secretary of the Navy's 30-day review will recommend recalling Mark Kelly to active duty and court-martialing him.","Loose",30,"Legal & Justice",55,"Notable","2026-01-05","2026-01-05","2026-02-04","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-05",24],[7654,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The United Nations will condemn the United States for removing Nicolas Maduro from power by the end of 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-04","2026-01-04","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-04",24],[7653,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","Democrats will win control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7652,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The United States will not complete a clean sweep of every medal event at the 2026 Winter Olympics.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-02-22","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7651,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani will have a public clash over immigration enforcement in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7650,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The United States Supreme Court will not shut down Donald Trump's tariff program in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7649,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Jasmine Crockett will not win the 2026 Texas United States Senate election.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-11-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7648,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Dave Rubin's YouTube channel will reach four million subscribers in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7647,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Rumble Wallet will let users pay creators in multiple cryptocurrencies and exchange those cryptocurrencies within the wallet in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7646,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Tesla will release the Roadster in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7645,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Elon Musk will appear on The Rubin Report in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7644,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Donald Trump will fire at least one member of his Cabinet in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7643,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Tesla's Optimus robot will become available for purchase in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7642,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Federal Reserve will cut its target interest rate in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7641,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Seattle Seahawks will win Super Bowl LX.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-02-08","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7640,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Barack Obama and Michelle Obama will remain married throughout 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7639,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The Russia-Ukraine war will be mostly wrapped up, with at least a temporary stoppage of the killing, by the end of July 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-07-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7638,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","The San Antonio Spurs will win the 2026 NBA Finals.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-06-30","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7637,"Dave Rubin","Dave Rubin","The Rubin Report","high","Gavin Newsom will not announce a presidential campaign in 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7635,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","House Republican committee leaders James Comer and Jim Jordan will block efforts to investigate Donald Trump's health through the end of the 119th Congress.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2027-01-03","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7634,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","Donald Trump's Cabinet will not invoke Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to remove him from presidential power during his second term.","Firm",90,"Government & Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7631,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","Donald Trump will authorize a U.S. operation aimed at removing, capturing, or killing Iran's senior regime leadership by March 3, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-03-03","2026-08-10","YES",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7630,"Commentary Magazine","John Podhoretz","Commentary Magazine","high","The United States will take sovereign or administrative control of Greenland while Donald Trump is president.","Firm",90,"Other",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2029-01-20","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7629,"Breaking Points","Krystal Ball","Breaking Points","high","Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer will each take a position that is at least partly supportive of the U.S. operation that removed Nicolas Maduro.","Loose",30,"Other",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-01-10","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7628,"Steve Bannon","Steve Bannon","Bannon War Room","high","Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, will be arraigned in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026.","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2026-08-10","NO",1,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[5622,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will serve out the rest of his second term through January 2029 — he will not be removed from office (absent physical incapacitation)","Firm",90,"Immigration",70,"Bold","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2029-01-20","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[5621,"David Pakman","David Pakman","David Pakman","high","Trump will endorse JD Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination","Loose",30,"Elections",55,"Notable","2026-01-03","2026-01-03","2028-12-31","2026-08-09",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-03",24],[7627,"Megyn Kelly","Megyn Kelly","The Megyn Kelly Show","high","Kilmar Abrego Garcia will be deported from the United States by March 31, 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-02","2026-01-02","2026-03-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-02",24],[7626,"Ben Shapiro","Ben Shapiro","The Ben Shapiro Show","high","The Jerusalem Pilgrimage Road from the Pool of Siloam toward the Temple and Western Wall area will open in September 2026.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-02","2026-01-02","2026-09-30","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-02",24],[7625,"MeidasTouch","Ben Meiselas","MeidasTouch","high","The final number of DOJ-identified Epstein-file records will be closer to 10 million than to 5.2 million.","Firm",90,"Legal & Justice",70,"Bold","2026-01-02","2026-01-02","2026-03-31","2026-08-10","NO",0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-02",24],[7623,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. federal government will not negotiate prescription drug prices over the next three years.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-01","2026-01-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-01",24],[7622,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. federal government may direct at least $2 trillion in financial benefits to pharmaceutical manufacturers over the next three years.","Loose",30,"Economy",55,"Notable","2026-01-01","2026-01-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-01",24],[7621,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. federal government will obligate at least $200 billion to defense contractors over the next three years.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-01","2026-01-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-01",24],[7620,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. federal government will direct at least $20 billion in financial benefits to oil companies over the next three years.","Firm",90,"Economy",70,"Bold","2026-01-01","2026-01-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-01",24],[7619,"The Young Turks","Cenk Uygur","The Young Turks","high","The U.S. federal government will provide at least $20 billion more to Israel over the next three years.","Firm",90,"Foreign Policy",70,"Bold","2026-01-01","2026-01-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-01",24],[7618,"The Charlie Kirk Show","Andrew Kolvet","Charlie Kirk","high","Either Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Jasmine Crockett will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.","Firm",90,"Elections",70,"Bold","2026-01-01","2026-01-01","2028-12-31","2026-08-10",null,0,0,null,null,null,null,[],1,"2026-01-01",24]],"verdict_fields":["id","evidence","evidence_url","outcome_basis"],"verdicts":[[15201,"Byron Donalds won the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary held August 18, 2026, taking roughly 48% of the vote (about 810,675 votes) against Jay Collins at about 25%, James Fishback at about 10% and Paul Renner at about 9%, with 99% of precincts reporting. Donalds was declared the Republican nominee and advances to face Democrat David Jolly in November. The claim as stated came true.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/florida-governor-results","research"],[8265,"Sen. Bill Cassidy backed Todd Blanche's nomination and voted to confirm him, and the Senate confirmed Blanche as attorney general 50-49 on August 8, 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/politics/senate-vote-blanche-confirmation-vis","research"],[8243,"The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8240,"The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8231,"Abdul El-Sayed won the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary over Haley Stevens.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/politics/live-news/primary-election-michigan-virginia","research"],[8230,"The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8229,"The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8227,"SpaceX shares rose 9.4% in the regular session on August 4, 2026 but fell more than 7% in after-hours trading following the earnings release, driven by concerns over AI capital spending.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html","research"],[8225,"A September 1 Justice Department release identified Jeanine Ferris Pirro as U.S. Attorney and quoted her acting in that capacity, establishing that she remained in office after the deadline.","https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/justice-department-continues-disrupt-hamas-terrorist-financing-schemes-through-seizures","research"],[8224,"On the night of August 2-3, 2026, Todd Blanche issued an order rescinding (not restoring or replacing) Trump's $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund to secure GOP holdout votes; no order restoring or replacing the fund followed by August 5, 2026.","https://www.npr.org/2026/08/03/g-s1-136864/todd-blanche-rescinds-trump-anti-weaponization-fund","research"],[8222,"The agreement had not been concluded by August 31; on September 7, Iran said it would be signed in the coming days.","https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/iran-says-hormuz-corridor-deal-with-oman-due-within-days-226541","research"],[8220,"Abdul El-Sayed narrowly beat Haley Stevens to win Michigan's August 4, 2026 Democratic Senate primary, advancing to face Republican Mike Rogers in November.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750","research"],[8219,"Abdul El-Sayed received the most votes and won the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary over Rep. Haley Stevens.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750","research"],[8217,"The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8216,"Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district, winning 51.9% to 48.1%.","https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/05/mckinney-unseats-thanedar-in-michigans-13th-congressional-district/","research"],[8214,"The Senate adjourned for its August 2026 recess without bringing the SAVE America Act to the floor, instead voting on a narrower Husted photo-ID bill that failed a 52-46 cloture vote; full SAVE America Act action was deferred until after recess after Majority Leader Thune declined Trump's request to cancel recess.","https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6018225-gop-deal-budget-resolution-save-america-act/","research"],[8212,"The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general 50-49 at 4:17 a.m. on August 8, 2026, roughly four hours after this prediction's August 7, 2026 deadline for confirmation.","https://www.npr.org/2026/08/08/g-s1-137631/senate-confirms-todd-blanche-attorney-general","research"],[8211,"Abdul El-Sayed received the most votes and won the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary over Rep. Haley Stevens.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750","research"],[8210,"Abdul El-Sayed received the most votes and won the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary over Rep. Haley Stevens.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750","research"],[8206,"Abdul El-Sayed received the most votes and won the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary over Rep. Haley Stevens.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750","research"],[8194,"The Senate confirmed Blanche 50-49 on August 8, 2026, but he was not formally sworn in as attorney general (oath administered by Judge Emil Bove at the White House) until Monday, August 10, 2026, two days after this prediction's August 8, 2026 deadline for both confirmation and swearing-in.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/10/politics/emil-bove-swearing-in-todd-blanche-attorney-general","research"],[8193,"The Senate Judiciary Committee voted 12-10 along strict party lines on August 4, 2026 to advance Todd Blanche's nomination, with no Democrats voting in favor and no Republicans voting against.","https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/politics/2026/08/04/senate-judiciary-committee-vote-todd-blanche-attorney-general","research"],[8190,"As of August 9, 2026, Jeanine Pirro remained U.S. Attorney for D.C.; Trump said he 'hadn't made a determination' on her fate after their heated Reflecting Pool dispute, and no resignation or firing occurred by the deadline.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/08/08/pirro-trumps-longtime-champion-is-outs-over-reflecting-pool-move/","research"],[8189,"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday, August 3, 2026 that the US bought yen alongside Japan in a coordinated intervention to curb the currency's slide, the first such joint action since 2011; Japan's government likewise confirmed the coordinated intervention that day.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/yen-intervention-us-japan-trump-bessent-katayama.html","research"],[8181,"The referenced strike is the Russian ballistic missile and drone attack on Kyiv overnight into August 1, 2026, which the episode described as having killed at least nine people. The confirmed toll settled at nine dead and roughly 27 to 33 wounded across five districts, with seven deaths in Darnytskyi and two in Solomianskyi, and multiple outlets reported the toll as having risen to nine and then stabilised there through mid-August. Nine is below the predicted 15-to-20 band, so the claim did not come true. Near miss does not apply: the observed value misses the lower threshold of 15 by six, which is 40% of that threshold, far beyond the 5% allowance in the numeric-threshold rule.","https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/01/8046784/","research"],[8179,"Republican senators Cornyn and Tillis struck a deal with Blanche late in the day on Sunday, August 2, 2026, in which he rescinded the Anti-Weaponization Fund order and clarified the IRS tax-immunity settlement, resolving the dispute before the August 4 deadline and clearing the way for the committee vote.","https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/politics/2026/08/04/senate-judiciary-committee-vote-todd-blanche-attorney-general","research"],[8167,"The August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was won by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, not Francesca Hong. Crowley took 39.8% to Hong's 39.4%, a margin of just over 3,200 votes with 98% of ballots counted; Kelda Roys took 7.5% and Joel Brennan 4.7%. The Associated Press called the race at 2:34 a.m. on August 12, 2026 after Hong conceded, which removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley is therefore the 2026 Democratic nominee for governor of Wisconsin. The claim as stated - that Hong would win the primary or the nomination - did not come true. Near miss is not available: PREDICTION_METHODOLOGY.md section 6 excludes categorical winner and nominee claims, and none of these frozen claims preregistered a numeric vote-share threshold.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8150,"On July 31, 2026, Houthi forces launched a large-scale offensive with missiles and drones against Saudi-backed Yemeni government military positions in Marib and Hadramawt provinces, killing at least 58 government troops in one of the deadliest days of Yemen's civil war in four years.","https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-yemen-saudi-arabia-houthis-donald-trump-deadly-attacks/","research"],[8149,"Iran's IRGC announced it struck US military assets at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber and Ali Al Salem air bases with kamikaze drones on July 31, 2026, explicitly calling it retaliation for the US strikes on Qeshm island a day earlier.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/31/irgc-strikes-us-targets-in-kuwait-a-day-after-us-hits-iran-latest-events","research"],[8148,"US Central Command conducted a new wave of strikes on Iran overnight July 30-31, 2026, hitting IRGC targets on Qeshm island, Fars, Kish, Bushehr, Khuzestan and Hormozgan in retaliation for Iranian strikes on US bases in Jordan.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/30/us-launches-another-round-of-attacks-on-iran","research"],[8147,"The Houthis struck a Saudi Arabian oil refinery twice inside the window running after July 30 and through August 13, 2026. On August 9, 2026 a Houthi drone hit Saudi Aramco's refinery at Jizan on the Red Sea coast, starting a fire that Saudi Arabia later said was extinguished; Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed the strike. On August 13, 2026 the Houthis targeted the same Aramco Jazan refinery for a second time in under a week. Either strike alone satisfies the preregistered criterion of at least one additional Saudi refinery hit or damaged in the window. The claim as stated came true.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/9/saudi-arabia-says-fire-extinguished-at-aramco-facility-in-jizan","research"],[8144,"The June 17 ceasefire/MOU collapsed in early July with hundreds of US strikes and Iranian retaliation continuing through the end of July; Trump only announced a possible deal after canceling a planned strike on August 2, after the deadline, with no mutually observed ceasefire in effect by July 31.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/31/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[8133,"The first post-July 29 action was a limited August 30 strike after a month without military action, so no qualifying expansion occurred by August 31. A broader barrage against multiple target sets began September 1, one calendar day after the deadline.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/01/iran-us-strikes/097c5278-a625-11f1-9e38-f705d048bd5a_story.html","research"],[8117,"Fauci appeared and was sworn in under subpoena before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 29, 2026 (per the committee's official hearing record), though he invoked his Fifth Amendment right more than 100 times rather than answer substantive questions.","https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/hearings/testimony-of-anthony-fauci/","research"],[8109,"Trump delivered tribute/eulogy remarks for Sen. Lindsey Graham at his funeral service at Washington National Cathedral on July 28, 2026, calling him 'an American original' and describing his decades of influence in the Senate.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/28/nx-s1-5909232/lindsey-graham-funeral","research"],[5465,"Francesca Hong did not win the August 11, 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won by a margin of less than one percentage point; the Associated Press called the race for Crowley once Hong's concession removed the possibility of a recount. Crowley advances to face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in November. Near miss does not apply: the methodology excludes categorical winner and nominee calls from near-miss half credit regardless of margin.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/david-crowley-wins-democratic-primary-for-wisconsin-governor-over-francesca-hong","research"],[8106,"Despite Trump's public demand and pressure from 14 senators to cancel the August recess to pass the SAVE America Act, Majority Leader Thune did not cancel it and the Senate proceeded into its scheduled August recess.","https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/6019716-senate-leaves-dc-unresolved-issues/","research"],[8105,"Netanyahu did not visit New York City in the days following this July 27, 2026 prediction; he confirmed his visit was planned for the UN General Assembly in September 2026, and no violence connected to protests over a Netanyahu visit was reported in New York City by the July 31, 2026 resolve_by date.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/26/netanyahu-vows-to-go-to-new-york-city-despite-icc-arrest-warrant-mamdani","research"],[5462,"The pause that began July 24 after 13 consecutive nights of bombing collapsed: CENTCOM launched a heavy wave of strikes on Iran on July 29, 2026 from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET, hitting dozens of IRGC command centers, missile/drone facilities and coastal defense sites in response to Iranian missile attacks on US forces.","https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4559495/us-strikes-irgc-targets-after-attempted-iranian-attacks/","research"],[4658,"At the July 29, 2026 Senate Homeland Security hearing, Fauci gave a brief opening statement and then invoked the Fifth Amendment, declining to answer more than 100 questions over nearly three hours rather than substantively addressing whether he had lied to Congress; Rand Paul said the committee would vote on contempt. The evasion happened via the Fifth rather than 'I don't recall,' but the criteria's 'declining to answer' test is met.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910542/fauci-rand-paul-diary-coronavirus-origin-lab-leak-hearing","research"],[5135,"The Senate confirmed Dave Brat as ambassador to Australia on August 7, 2026, matching this prediction's resolve_by date within the first week of August.","https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-08-07/us-senate-confirms-dozens-of-trump-nominees-filling-gaps-in-diplomatic-corps","research"],[5925,"The Senate left Washington for its August recess on Saturday Aug 8, 2026 without passing the SAVE America Act, not returning until Sept 14. Thune, Trump and Senate conservatives had struck a deal to defer action on the bill until after recess; it needed 60 votes and Sen. Thom Tillis called it 'dead' for the foreseeable future.","https://dailycaller.com/2026/08/08/senate-leaves-town-august-recess-fails-pass-safeguard-american-voter-eligibility-save-america-act/","research"],[4423,"Although US-Iran hostilities flared with strikes and intercepted missiles in late July and continued into August 2026 with a reimposed US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, no full-scale US invasion or ground operation exceeding Operation Epic Fury occurred by August 7, 2026; the conflict remained an air and naval campaign.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/01/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[5121,"Both components held through mid-August 2026. The bombing campaign did not stop: after the ceasefire collapsed on July 8, 2026 the US conducted sustained strikes across Iran, the naval blockade of Iranian ports was reimposed and remained in effect, and US attacks across Iran were still being reported into August 2026 with the war in its sixth month. No 10-day interim ceasefire was ever agreed or announced; the only ceasefire development was an unsettled August 12 discussion about extending the existing MOU deadline, not the proposed 10-day reprieve. The claim as stated came true.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_naval_blockade_of_Iran","research"],[4411,"A Quinnipiac national poll released 2026-07-29 put Trump's job approval at 32%, a new low, and AP-NORC released 2026-07-30 put it at 33% (down from 37%). The criteria threshold of 32% or lower in a major national poll by 2026-09-30 was met on 2026-07-29.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/07/29/trump-approval-rating-tumbles-to-32-inquinnipiac-poll-hitting-new-low/","research"],[4410,"CENTCOM reported completing a heavy wave of strikes against dozens of IRGC targets on July 29, including command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal defenses, and maritime capabilities.","https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4559495/us-strikes-irgc-targets-after-attempted-iranian-attacks/","research"],[6512,"The House passed the FY2027 NDAA (H.R. 8800) on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 by a roll-call vote of 216-212, with Section 219 (the US-Israel defense technology integration provision) still in the bill after the Rules Committee blocked the Massie-Khanna amendment to strip it.","https://www.commondreams.org/news/house-passes-ndaa-with-section-219","research"],[4654,"After Biden dropped his appeal, the Heritage Foundation's Oversight Project publicly released roughly three hours of audio plus 117 pages of transcripts of the Biden-Zwonitzer ghostwriter interviews on July 27, 2026, along with material from the Hur investigation; the clips include Biden discussing 'classified' material and showing memory lapses.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/audio-tapes-appear-to-show-biden-discussing-sensitive-information-with-memoir-ghostwriter","research"],[4653,"Biden never filed the next petition: after the D.C. Circuit's 2-1 denial of his emergency injunction (July 21, 2026), his lawyers filed a notice of voluntary dismissal on Friday, July 24, 2026, declining to seek en banc rehearing or Supreme Court review, and the circuit dissolved the administrative injunction on July 26. No en banc or Supreme Court denial occurred or now can occur, so the predicted event did not happen — though the underlying outcome (release) did go against Biden. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Substantive call held with only the mechanism wrong: Biden's effort to block release failed and the audio was freed, but via his own voluntary dismissal rather than the predicted en banc/SCOTUS denial.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/25/nx-s1-5906749/biden-ghostwriter-tapes-justice-department-trump-debate","research"],[6669,"Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in the Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary on Aug. 4, 2026; Stevens conceded and congratulated El-Sayed, who had led late polls by double digits.","https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/04/michigan-senate-election-results/91144752007/","research"],[6664,"EIA weekly U.S. regular retail gasoline went from $4.001 on July 20, 2026 to $4.096 on July 27, 2026 — a rise of about 9.5 cents, not the roughly 15 cents predicted (AAA likewise showed $4.09 on both July 23 and July 30). Near miss: prices did keep climbing that week as he said, and the increase landed about two-thirds of the way to his named figure, though it fell short of 'about 15 cents.'","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w","research"],[6126,"The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as U.S. Attorney General on August 8, 2026 by a 50-49 roll-call vote (Collins and Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposition), well inside the ~2026-09-30 deadline.","https://www.npr.org/2026/08/08/g-s1-137631/senate-confirms-todd-blanche-attorney-general","research"],[5920,"As of August 15, 2026 hostilities between the US and Iran had not ended and no peace agreement was in force. The war, which began February 28, 2026, was in its sixth month; the MOU ceasefire collapsed on July 8, 2026 and was described as in tatters; the US naval blockade barring ships from Iranian ports was reimposed and still in effect; US strikes across Iran continued; and on August 10, 2026 Trump added a demand for compensation from Iran as a condition for talks, with Iran saying it could prolong the war. CNN was still running daily Iran-war live coverage on August 15, 2026. One outlet reported on August 12 that the sides had agreed in principle to extend the ceasefire, but the extension period was still unsettled and did not end the conflict. The claim as stated came true.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/15/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[5613,"Andrew Arrabaca, 43, was charged by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York on July 21, 2026 with arson for setting fire at the entrance of 26 Federal Plaza on July 20. Charging documents and the FBI describe the acts as motivated by his anti-government and anti-ICE beliefs; his cart carried an 'ICE Off Our Streets' sign and his bag contained a manifesto.","https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/new-york-man-charged-arson-after-setting-fire-entrance-federal-building","research"],[5110,"The Senate confirmed Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence by a 51-47 party-line vote on July 28, 2026, replacing acting DNI Bill Pulte.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910749/senate-confirms-jay-clayton-as-director-of-national-intelligence","research"],[4388,"Brent crude futures settled at $100.69 per barrel on July 23, satisfying the frozen settlement threshold before August 31.","https://www.brecorder.com/news/40431576","research"],[4381,"Brent crude climbed more than 3% to about $91/bbl at the July 19-20, 2026 open and later topped $92/bbl on July 30 amid renewed US strikes on Iran, putting front-month crude in the $90s well inside the Aug 31 window.","https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil","research"],[7511,"Pre-release industry projections had The Odyssey opening around $100 million domestically; it opened July 17-19, 2026 to $124.5 million domestic and $264.1 million worldwide, Nolan's biggest opening weekend ever, with Variety reporting the debut 'shatters expectations' and a massive second weekend following.","https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/the-odyssey-box-office-christopher-nolan-opening-weekend-shatters-expectations-1236815861/","research"],[6853,"Argentina lost the 2026 World Cup final 1-0 to Spain after extra time on July 19, 2026, with Ferran Torres scoring in the 106th minute; FIFA records Spain as champion. Argentina reached the final but did not win it.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2026-fifa-world-cup-final-spain-argentina-sunday/","research"],[6852,"Trump did blame China in the July 16, 2026 address (claiming China obtained 220 million U.S. voter files), but the speech was not consequence-free: he ordered DOJ to prosecute alleged participants, directed an FBI probe of Michigan registrations, and DHS issued directives to states to purge voter rolls by July 24 under threat of losing federal funding. Near miss because the China-blaming half was exactly right and no arrests, indictments, or removals of officials followed within two weeks - only executive directives.","https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/trump-primetime-speech-elections-china/","research"],[6663,"The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general 50-49 on Aug. 8, 2026, after a bruising confirmation fight.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/senate-confirms-todd-blanche-attorney-general-weeks-uncertainty-rcna591457","research"],[5911,"In the same July 16, 2026 address, Trump explicitly tied his election-security push to the upcoming midterms, urging Congress to pass the SAVE America Act and directing DHS to order states to purge noncitizens from voter rolls before the November 2026 elections.","https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/july-16-2026-address-nation-election-security","research"],[5910,"The July 16, 2026 address alleged Chinese hacking of voter files and 'buried' FBI fraud evidence, but the full transcript contains no assertion that Trump won 2020 or that the election was stolen/rigged; Al Jazeera's takeaways state he 'stopped short of repeating his false claim that he won in 2020,' and Sen. John Cornyn's complaint was about 2020 focus generally, not a stolen-election claim.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/key-takeaways-from-donald-trumps-speech-on-election-security","research"],[5098,"In his July 16, 2026 prime-time White House address Trump announced immediate declassification of election intelligence and claimed China illegally acquired 220 million US voter files and sought to meddle in the 2020 election, alleging intelligence officials suppressed the findings; the White House release was titled around 'Foreign Election Interference and Deep State Coverup.'","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/politics/live-news/trump-speech-election","research"],[4352,"Trump did allege Chinese interference in 2020 (including an 'attempt to manufacture illegal ballots for Joe Biden' and acquisition of 220 million voters' data), but he stopped short of alleging that votes were altered or results changed, and did not claim the 2020 election was invalid or stolen because of China. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Near miss — the core call held (Trump used the address to allege Chinese interference in 2020, including manufacturing illegal ballots for Biden); only the explicit 'election was invalid' conclusion was absent.","https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/07/17/trump-election-speech-china-noncitizen-voters-voting-machine-vunerabilities/","research"],[4351,"The transcript of Trump's ~30-minute July 16, 2026 primetime address contains no mention of a bioweapon, virus, COVID, or China creating a pathogen; the speech was entirely about election security and alleged Chinese election interference, as confirmed by PBS and PolitiFact fact-checks.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-address-on-china-the-2020-election-and-what-documents-show","research"],[6850,"Trump delivered the primetime address on July 16, 2026 alleging election fraud and Chinese interference, but concrete action did follow: he ordered DOJ to prosecute those involved and asked FBI Director Patel to investigate Michigan registrations, and DHS Secretary Mullin then sent letters to states directing removal of ineligible voters with a July 24 response deadline backed by a threat to withhold federal funding. Near miss because the specific consequences Pool named - arrests and indictments - did not materialize in the two-week window; only administrative directives did.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/key-takeaways-trumps-elections-speech/story?id=134835191","research"],[5909,"In the July 16, 2026 address Trump called for the SAVE America Act ('all voters must show photo voter ID', 'All voters must provide proof of citizenship', 'no corrupt mail-in ballots... except for illness, disability, military deployment, or travel') and said he had 'ordered DHS to notify every state about non-citizens on their voter rolls.' All 24 Democratic governors responded that he intended to 'intimidate and silence voters.'","https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/july-16-2026-address-nation-election-security","research"],[3597,"Trump did not lay out a case for finishing or winning the war in Iran in the July 16 address; coverage noted he 'barely mentioned the war' and offered no path forward, only a one-line assertion that the US is 'winning big in Iran.' The negative claim held.","https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/july-16-2026-address-nation-election-security","research"],[5906,"In his July 16, 2026 primetime 'Address to the Nation on Election Security,' Trump declassified intelligence alleging Chinese acquisition of voter data and election-system vulnerabilities, then announced he had ordered DHS to notify all states of noncitizens on their voter rolls and direct immediate removal, and urged Congress to pass the SAVE America Act requiring proof of citizenship and photo voter ID — a new initiative restricting voting eligibility ahead of the midterms.","https://www.wfsb.com/2026/07/17/trump-prime-time-address-targets-election-security-calls-save-america-act/","research"],[5905,"Trump delivered the ~25-minute prime-time 'Address to the Nation on Election Security' from the White House East Room on July 16, 2026, announcing declassified election documents and urging passage of the SAVE America Act. He announced no resignation and remains president.","https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/july-16-2026-address-nation-election-security","research"],[5441,"EIA weekly data show the SPR at 307.65 million barrels on July 24, 2026 (down from 319.5M on July 3), drawing roughly 4 million barrels a week — still far above the industry-consensus minimum operating level of ~250 million barrels and DOE's stated ~70 million barrel operational minimum, so it could not have dipped below by July 31, 2026.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W","research"],[4342,"EIA recorded the U.S. regular-gasoline average at $4.001 per gallon on July 20, exceeding the frozen $4.00 threshold before the deadline.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=w&n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg","research"],[4340,"Warsh's July 14, 2026 semiannual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee said 'high inflation has been an undue burden' and was widely characterized as hawkish; after it, CME FedWatch showed ~90% odds the fed funds rate ends 2026 higher, and July rate-hike odds were repriced (16% -> higher) around the testimony.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/14/economy/takeaways-kevin-warsh-congressional-testimony","research"],[4337,"AAA data reported by Axios placed the national average for regular gasoline at $4.003 per gallon on July 20, exceeding the frozen $4.00 threshold before the August 31 deadline.","https://www.axios.com/2026/07/20/gas-4-dollars-per-gallon-iran-war","research"],[6660,"The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche 50-49 in the early hours of Aug. 8, 2026; he was not defeated.","https://rollcall.com/2026/08/08/blanche-senate-confirmation-vote-attorney-general/","research"],[6659,"On the 50-49 roll call confirming Todd Blanche as attorney general on Aug. 8, 2026, Lisa Murkowski was one of only two Republicans voting no (with Susan Collins), saying she was not convinced Blanche would check the administration's worst impulses.","https://rollcall.com/2026/08/08/blanche-senate-confirmation-vote-attorney-general/","research"],[6658,"McMaster's July 13, 2026 interim appointee to Lindsey Graham's Senate seat was Darline Graham Nordone, not Nancy Mace.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lindsey-graham-replacement-senate-south-carolina-governor/","research"],[6657,"Darline Graham Nordone took the oath of office on the Senate floor on July 14, 2026, as the resolution criteria require; the oath was administered by President pro tempore Chuck Grassley with Majority Leader John Thune present and publicly welcoming her.","https://thehill.com/homenews/5967990-darline-nordone-lindsey-graham-senator-oath/","research"],[6656,"On July 13, 2026, Gov. Henry McMaster publicly announced at the SC State House that he was appointing Darline Graham Nordone, Lindsey Graham's sister, as interim U.S. senator to fill the seat left vacant by Graham's death.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/trump-lindsey-graham-darline-south-carolina-senator.html","research"],[4331,"On July 15, 2026 the US Justice Department publicly refused New Mexico AG Raul Torrez's request, saying federal law, court orders and victim privacy protections 'do not allow us to release millions of unredacted documents'; the state received only 31 pages of already-public or unusably redacted material on July 10 and set a July 31 deadline before treating the request as denied.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/us-justice-department-refuses-new-mexicos-request-for-epstein-files","research"],[5088,"Iran made no announcement dropping Hormuz fees by Trump's deadline. Instead, on July 13, 2026 Trump reimposed the naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective 4 p.m. EDT) and declared a 20% US toll on Hormuz cargo, while Iran publicly asserted its right to manage traffic and charge fees under the interim deal; the US launched new strikes the same day.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/13/nx-s1-5891746/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-updates","research"],[7498,"On 2026-07-13, days after launch and three days after the claim, Meta pulled the Muse Image functionality that let users reference public Instagram accounts by default, saying \"this feature missed the mark, so it's no longer available,\" following backlash from privacy advocates and SAG-AFTRA over the opt-out design.","https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/meta-pulls-opt-out-ai-tool-hollywood-outrage-1236644312/","research"],[7496,"On 2026-07-13, California AG Rob Bonta and 11 other state attorneys general filed a Clayton Act Section 7 suit in the Northern District of California to block Paramount's ~$110B acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, three days after the claim and well inside the 2026-08-31 window.","https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-files-lawsuit-block-110-billion-warner-brosparamount","research"],[6655,"The bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law automatically at 12 a.m. on Saturday, July 11, 2026, after Trump let the 10-day constitutional window lapse without signing or vetoing it, in protest over Senate inaction on the SAVE America Act.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature","research"],[4317,"The bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law on Saturday, July 11, 2026 without Trump's signature after he refused to sign and declined to veto it — the largest housing affordability bill in decades, exactly as predicted and well inside the July 24 window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature","research"],[4315,"Trump announced on July 13, 2026 that the US was reinstating its naval blockade of Iran, and CENTCOM's blockade of Iranian ports went into effect July 14, 2026 at 4 p.m. ET, with fresh strikes accompanying it.","https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz","research"],[4313,"The SPR stood at 311.4 million barrels on July 17, 2026 and 307.7 million on July 24 — above the 252.4-million-barrel statutory drawdown floor and far above the ~70-million-barrel operational minimum. It did not hit tank bottom by July 21, 2026, with weekly draws averaging only 5-6 million barrels.","https://tanktransport.com/2026/07/strategic-petroleum-reserve-low/","research"],[5433,"Maine Democrats nominated Troy Jackson at their July 25, 2026 Bangor convention, and Republican-aligned groups attacked immediately: Senate Leadership Fund launched a six-figure ad hitting Jackson's temper the same weekend as part of a pledged $42 million effort, on top of the NRSC's pre-planned $8 million blitz against the replacement nominee.","https://dailycaller.com/2026/07/25/troy-jackson-democratic-nominee-maine-senate-leadership-fund-graham-platner/","research"],[6488,"Graham Platner announced he was suspending his Maine Senate campaign in an 11-minute video on July 8, 2026 and formally withdrew on July 10, 2026 — before the July 13 ballot-filing deadline — after sexual-assault allegations cost him nearly all his endorsements. Maine Democrats then held a convention to pick a replacement to face Susan Collins.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5888709/graham-platner-maine-senate-susan-collins","research"],[6121,"Maine Democrats nominated former state Senate President Troy Jackson, not Janet Mills, at the July 25, 2026 Bangor convention; Jackson took 566 of 571 delegate votes. Mills had suspended her own Senate bid on April 30, 2026 and said she would not pick a favorite in the replacement race.","https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-07-25/troy-jackson-wins-the-democratic-nomination-to-challenge-sen-susan-collins","research"],[6117,"Platner announced he was suspending his campaign on July 8, 2026 and the Maine Secretary of State confirmed receipt of his formal withdrawal paperwork on July 10, 2026 — before the July 13, 2026 ballot-replacement deadline.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5888709/graham-platner-maine-senate-susan-collins","research"],[5429,"Graham Platner announced he was dropping out of the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race on July 8, 2026 after sexual-assault allegations, and formally withdrew his candidacy in a letter to Maine's division of elections, letting Maine Democrats name a replacement.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/graham-platner-drops-senate-bid-maine-rcna353199","research"],[4647,"On day four of the preliminary hearing (July 9, 2026) prosecutors played the 37-minute April 20, 2026 recorded interview of Lance Twiggs, in which Twiggs said Robinson admitted the shooting in person and by text, cried and said 'he wishes he hadn't done it,' and described Robinson engraving bullets about a month before the killing.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/charlie-kirk-tyler-robinson-preliminary-hearing-roommate-lance-twiggs/","research"],[5900,"Graham Platner formally withdrew from the Maine Senate race on July 10, 2026, submitting a letter to Maine's division of elections stating 'I write to formally withdraw my candidacy for United States Senate' — three days before the July 13 deadline. Maine Democrats then scheduled a July 25 convention to pick a replacement nominee.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5888709/graham-platner-maine-senate-susan-collins","research"],[5599,"On July 7, 2026 (day two of the preliminary hearing) Judge Tony Graf overruled the defense's foundation objection and allowed the state's compilation UVU campus surveillance video to be shown; lead investigator David Hull walked the court through Robinson's alleged movements from ~8:30 a.m. Sept. 10 to early Sept. 11.","https://www.kuer.org/news/2026-07-07/charlie-kirk-tyler-robinson-preliminary-hearing-day-2","research"],[5072,"Judge Graf issued no bind-over ruling the following week; instead he granted the defense request for written briefing (state brief July 28, defense reply Aug 11, state rebuttal Aug 18) with final oral arguments set for Sept 1, 2026, so no ruling existed by the July 17 deadline.","https://www.heraldextra.com/news/2026/jul/10/tyler-robinsons-five-day-preliminary-hearing-concludes-final-arguments-set-for-sept-1/","research"],[5071,"Evidence did finish on Friday, July 10, 2026: the fifth and final day ended with the defense's last witness and both sides resting, concluding the evidentiary portion of the preliminary hearing.","https://www.heraldextra.com/news/2026/jul/10/tyler-robinsons-five-day-preliminary-hearing-concludes-final-arguments-set-for-sept-1/","research"],[5070,"The preliminary hearing before Judge Tony Graf in Provo ran five days, July 6-10, 2026, and was still in session on Friday, July 10, when the defense called its final witness and both sides rested.","https://www.kuer.org/news/2026-07-10/charlie-kirk-tyler-robinson-preliminary-hearing-day-5","research"],[4282,"Le Monde reported that the August 18 missile incident was the first direct Iranian attack attributed against the UAE since May and that Iran had spared Emirati territory during the intervening escalation. Thus no Iranian strike hit a target in the UAE from July 8 through July 31.","https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/08/22/fragile-thaw-between-iran-and-the-uae-shatters-amid-renewed-tensions_6756747_4.html","research"],[4281,"Iranian ballistic missiles struck Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base (hosting US forces) on July 18, 2026, damaging refueling aircraft and wounding roughly a dozen US personnel, and Iran launched renewed missile attacks toward Saudi Arabia in the July 28-29, 2026 window that Saudi air defenses intercepted near Prince Sultan Air Base and Riyadh airport -- both well after the July 7, 2026 prediction date.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/g-s1-136063/us-saudi-arabia-iran-iraq","research"],[4280,"On July 12, 2026 Iran hit Qatar's Al Udeid air base with ballistic missiles, claiming destruction of a fighter maintenance facility, and also struck a satellite/early-warning site in Qatar; ABC News satellite analysis confirmed damage at bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/12/iran-attacks-five-gulf-nations-shuts-hormuz-after-us-bombing-all-to-know","research"],[4278,"Iran struck US-linked targets in Bahrain repeatedly after July 7, 2026: air-raid sirens sounded and Iranian missiles/drones hit US military assets there starting July 8, and on July 12 Iran's army said it targeted US communications and radar installations plus fuel storage sites used by US forces in Bahrain, with satellite imagery confirming damage.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/08/g-s1-132460/us-iran-attacks","research"],[4277,"US strikes on Iranian territory continued after July 7, 2026 - Al Jazeera described renewed US bombing of cities along Iran's southern coast as the third US bombing campaign in one week by July 12, and CNN reported the US resuming strikes on July 13, both inside the July 14 deadline.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[4276,"Iran announced a closure on July 12, but the IMO's July transit record shows ship transits continued during the month. The required halt in commercial transits therefore did not occur by July 31.","https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/hottopics/pages/strait-of-hormuz-middle-east-data.aspx","research"],[4275,"The interim US-Iran memorandum/truce collapsed within a month: Trump declared the truce over on July 7, 2026 after US strikes on 80+ Iranian targets, Iran struck multiple commercial ships in the Strait on July 8, and full hostilities resumed through late July (Iranian strikes on Gulf states July 12-19, renewed US strikes July 13-29).","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/world/live-news/nato-summit-trump","research"],[3585,"Graham Platner announced on July 8, 2026 he was ending his Maine Senate campaign after a sexual-assault allegation, and formally withdrew via letter to the Maine secretary of state on July 10, before the July 13 ballot-replacement deadline - well within the July 31 window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5888709/graham-platner-maine-senate-susan-collins","research"],[6651,"At the July 7-8, 2026 Ankara NATO summit Trump publicly attacked allies over Iran ('I'm very upset with NATO'; members 'didn't want to help us with the number one state sponsor of terror,' calling Spain 'a wasted cause' and ordering trade cut off) and pressed the defense-spending issue at his July 8 press conference, touting the 5%-of-GDP benchmark and saying the remaining holdout countries would have to follow.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/five-key-takeaways-from-the-nato-summit-in-ankara","research"],[6650,"Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on August 4, 2026, and will face Republican Mike Rogers in November.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/politics/live-news/primary-election-michigan-virginia","research"],[4645,"Judge Tony Graf did not rule on bind-over at the end of the July preliminary hearing; instead he set a written briefing schedule and scheduled oral arguments on probable cause for September 1, 2026, meaning no bind-over order was issued by the July 31, 2026 resolve_by date.","https://www.ksl.com/article/51596294/tyler-robinson-preliminary-hearing","research"],[4272,"On July 7, 2026 US Central Command struck more than 80 targets in Iran - air defenses, command and control, coastal radar, anti-ship missile sites and 60+ IRGC small boats - and the administration reimposed Iranian oil sanctions; Trump declared the truce over. Strikes continued through July 13, 16, 17 and July 29.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/world/live-news/nato-summit-trump","research"],[4271,"After the July 5 window opened, the U.S. kept pushing commercial traffic through the Oman-side southern corridor over Iranian objection: convoys were still transiting the southern corridor on July 7, CENTCOM's July 7 strikes hit 60+ IRGC boats specifically to keep the trade corridor open, and by late July the U.S. Navy had guided 100+ vessels through Hormuz under escort (10 ships transited July 23) while the IRGC insisted only Iran-approved routes were permitted.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis","research"],[6649,"Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the July 19, 2026 final at MetLife Stadium (Ferran Torres, 106th minute); France did not win.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/19/nx-s1-5899071/2026-world-cup-fifa-argentina-spain-final-championship","research"],[5427,"Abdul El-Sayed won the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary, edging out Rep. Haley Stevens 48.5% to 47.5%.","https://bridgemi.com/michigan-government/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-results-abdul-el-sayed-haley-stevens/","research"],[6845,"The USMNT was eliminated in the Round of 16, losing 4-1 to Belgium; Spain won the 2026 World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the July 19, 2026 final at New York/New Jersey Stadium.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/19/nx-s1-5899071/2026-world-cup-fifa-argentina-spain-final-championship","research"],[6648,"Timelines of the ceasefire's collapse show no US-Iran exchange of strikes during July 3-6, 2026; Iran struck three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7 and the US retaliated on July 8-9, hitting about 90 targets. Near miss: the predicted resumption of shooting occurred just one to two days after the stated holiday-weekend window.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[5896,"More than 200,000 US customers were without power by July 3, 2026 amid the heat wave, with outages from Michigan to Virginia. Con Edison cut power to nearly 10,000 southwest Queens customers on the afternoon of July 3 and reduced voltage for roughly 400,000 in the Bronx/Manhattan; DOE issued an Energy Emergency Alert directing PJM to take emergency action.","https://www.coned.com/en/about-us/media-center/news/2026/07-03/con-edison-working-to-restore-service-to-customers-impacted-by-extreme-heat","research"],[5895,"DC Fire and EMS treated 51 people for heat-related ailments at the July 4, 2026 Freedom 250 celebration and surrounding perimeter, transporting 12 to hospitals, plus 22 more transported for other ailments. Agencies logged 699 total patient contacts from midnight July 3 to midnight July 4 as Washington hit a record 102 degrees with a heat index up to 113.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/04/nx-s1-5882179/washingtons-july-4-heat-cancellations","research"],[5065,"On July 16, 2026 Trump announced and the administration began releasing declassified intelligence documents alleging foreign election interference — including claims China illicitly obtained 220 million U.S. voter files starting in the 2020 cycle and a June 2026 CIA assessment on Venezuela's alleged manipulation of voting systems. Release occurred after the July 2, 2026 claim date.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/politics/what-trumps-newly-declassified-documents-do-and-dont-tell-us-about-threats-to-us-elections","research"],[5064,"Brat's nomination (PN937) was reported and placed on the Senate Executive Calendar June 4, 2026 and saw no floor action for weeks; the first floor action came in late July — S.Res.817 (en bloc consideration of 74 nominations, including Calendar No. 764, David Brat, Australia) was filed July 23, cloture invoked July 29 (vote 214, 50-45) and the resolution agreed to July 30, 2026 (vote 217, 50-47).","https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_119_2.htm","research"],[5061,"The Senate confirmed Dave Brat as ambassador to Australia on August 7, 2026, two days after this prediction's August 5, 2026 resolve_by date, as part of a bulk 74-nominee confirmation vote ahead of recess.","https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-08-07/us-senate-confirms-dozens-of-trump-nominees-filling-gaps-in-diplomatic-corps","research"],[6842,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 (Roberts writing, joined by Barrett, Kavanaugh, Sotomayor, Kagan, Jackson) that nearly all children born on U.S. soil are citizens under the Fourteenth Amendment, striking down Trump's executive order restricting birthright citizenship for children of undocumented and temporary-status parents.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/30/us-supreme-court-rules-against-trump-order-to-end-birthright-citizenship","research"],[5888,"After the Supreme Court declined Trump's appeal on June 29, 2026, the escrowed funds were released and E. Jean Carroll was paid on Monday, July 13, 2026 — approximately $5.6 million ($5,625,005.48 with interest, from the $5.55 million Trump had deposited in the Court Registry Investment System). Reported July 14, 2026.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/e-jean-carroll-has-been-paid-5-8-million-three-years-after-trump-sex-abuse-and-defamation-verdict","research"],[5423,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court, 6-3 (Roberts writing), held the 14th Amendment guarantees birthright citizenship and struck down Trump's day-one executive order (Trump v. Barbara, No. 25-365).","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[5059,"Nothing was released during the week of July 6-13, 2026. The first public release of the declassified foreign-interference material came with Trump's primetime address and accompanying White House document dump on July 17, 2026, followed by Pulte's ODNI release on July 27, 2026 — both after the July 13 deadline. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The predicted disclosure did occur — the White House dumped the declassified 2020 foreign-interference material July 17, about five days past the July 13 deadline and inside two weeks of the stated week.","https://www.justsecurity.org/147633/trump-election-interference-speech/","research"],[5058,"The declassification effort did publicly release material alleging 2020 election wrongdoing: on July 17, 2026 Trump gave a primetime address accompanied by a White House release ('President Trump Declassifies Intel on Foreign Election Interference and Deep State Coverup') alleging China obtained data on 220 million voters during the 2020 cycle, that Democrat-aligned canvassers in Michigan forged voter registrations before the 2020 election, and that ~278,000 non-citizens were registered in four states; Acting DNI Bill Pulte released further declassified 2020 election-threat documents on July 27, 2026. Note: outside analysts and the IC's own 2021 assessment say the released records do not show the 2020 outcome was altered.","https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/setting-the-record-straight-president-trump-declassifies-intel-on-foreign-election-interference-deep-state-coverup/","research"],[4638,"Within a day of the June 30, 2026 ruling, DOJ and DHS announced a 'birth tourism' crackdown (Washington Times, July 1, 2026); the State Department then issued a new rule directing consular officers to presume pregnant B-2 visa applicants are seeking U.S. citizenship for the child and to deny the visa absent rebuttal, and ICE was directed to prioritize organized birth-tourism investigations.","https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jul/1/justice-department-dhs-plan-crackdown-birth-tourism-supreme-court/","research"],[5595,"The June 30, 2026 decision in Trump v. Barbara was decided on constitutional grounds: Roberts held that children born to parents unlawfully or temporarily present satisfy the Fourteenth Amendment's Citizenship Clause and 'are citizens at birth.' It was not a narrow statutory ruling deferring the definition to Congress.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump","research"],[5594,"On June 30, 2026 the Court ruled 6-3 (opinion by Chief Justice Roberts) that Trump's Executive Order 14160 restricting birthright citizenship is unconstitutional, i.e. the ruling did not go the administration's way.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump","research"],[5057,"The Supreme Court decided Trump v. Barbara on June 30, 2026 — within the ~July 1 window — ruling 6-3 (Roberts writing) that the Constitution guarantees birthright citizenship and striking down Trump's executive order, i.e., rejecting the administration's position.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-order-ending-birthright-citizenship/","research"],[4637,"After the Supreme Court's June 25, 2026 decision in Mullin v. Doe holding TPS terminations unreviewable, DHS terminated Haiti's TPS designation effective July 27, 2026, invalidating A12/C19 work permits for roughly 350,000 Haitians and exposing them to removal proceedings; no extension, reinstatement, or path to permanent residency was offered.","https://www.uscis.gov/save/current-user-agencies/news-alerts/termination-of-temporary-protected-status-for-haiti-release-july-29-2026","research"],[4636,"On June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Trump v. Barbara striking down Executive Order 14160, holding the 14th Amendment confers citizenship on children born in the U.S. regardless of parents' immigration status.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-order-ending-birthright-citizenship/","research"],[4635,"On June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court reversed and remanded in Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. in an opinion by Justice Kavanaugh, holding that Title IX permits sports teams defined by biological sex and that Idaho and West Virginia did not violate the Equal Protection Clause by limiting girls' teams to biological females.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/court-rules-that-states-can-exclude-transgender-athletes-from-girls-and-womens-sports-teams/","research"],[4248,"Kpler shipping data reported by Reuters recorded six vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz on August 10, within the specified range of roughly 5–10 ships per day.","https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gulf-shipping-traffic-via-strait-of-hormuz-falls-to-six-vessels-4850767","research"],[4246,"Iran did close the strait again within the window: Tehran claimed closure on June 20, 2026 citing alleged Israeli violations, and the IRGC Navy formally declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on July 12, 2026, with commercial transit falling to roughly 11% of pre-crisis volume by July 23.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis","research"],[4244,"Additional strikes explicitly characterized as breaching the MOU followed 2026-06-27: Iran claimed the strait closed again citing alleged Israeli violations, the truce collapsed July 8 with Iranian strikes on commercial vessels, the IRGC struck two tankers July 13, the US resumed strikes on Iranian targets July 13 and reimposed the naval blockade July 14-15, and strikes continued through July 29-30.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/why-have-us-iran-strikes-resumed-and-what-does-it-mean-for-peace-talks","research"],[6839,"The Supreme Court decided Watson v. Republican National Committee on June 29, 2026, ruling 5-4 (opinion by Justice Barrett, joined by Roberts and the three liberals) that federal law does NOT bar states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day, upholding Mississippi's five-business-day grace period. That is the opposite of the predicted holding.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-mail-ballots-mississippi-law-watson-v-rnc/","research"],[5876,"Trump did not drop the BBC suit; it is actively litigating through discovery. In July 2026 Magistrate Judge Enjolique Lett ordered Trump's trust to produce business financial records back to Jan. 1, 2023, and on Aug. 5-6, 2026 Trump filed an emergency application to stay that discovery. A provisional two-week trial is set for Feb. 15, 2027. Trump only voluntarily dismissed the two BBC Studios entities (July 17, 2026) while stating he would 'continue prosecuting' claims against the BBC itself.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/06/trump-bbc-lawsuit-financial-records-court-stay.html","research"],[5051,"The Supreme Court issued Watson v. Republican National Committee (No. 24-1260) — the mail-in ballot / late-arriving ballot case — on Monday, June 29, 2026, along with other opinions that day (Trump v. Slaughter, Trump v. Cook, Chatrie v. United States). The 5-4 decision upheld Mississippi's counting of ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to five business days later.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1260_g3cn.pdf","research"],[5049,"The mail-in ballot case, Watson v. Republican National Committee (No. 24-1260), was decided Monday June 29, 2026 (5-4, Barrett, upholding Mississippi's post-Election Day receipt grace period), not Friday June 26, 2026. No opinions were released on June 26. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The mail-in ballot ruling (Watson v. RNC) did come down, three days late on June 29 rather than Friday June 26; narrow timing miss.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1260_g3cn.pdf","research"],[5048,"The birthright citizenship ruling (Trump v. Barbara, No. 25-365) was issued June 30, 2026. The Supreme Court released no opinions on Friday, June 26, 2026 — its June opinion days were June 25, June 29 and June 30. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Same call restated — the birthright ruling issued June 30, four days after the predicted June 26; core call right, timing narrowly off.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[4238,"Trump refused to sign the ROAD to Housing Act on July 10, 2026 (after cancelling the June 24 signing ceremony) and did not veto it; the bill automatically became law at 12:01 a.m. on July 11, 2026 without his signature under Article I, Section 7. No presidential signature was recorded.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5885027/housing-bill-without-trump-signature","research"],[5593,"The Supreme Court handed down its birthright-citizenship decision in Trump v. Barbara on June 30, 2026, well inside the ~July 10 window predicted on June 25.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-order-ending-birthright-citizenship/","research"],[5046,"The Supreme Court issued its birthright citizenship decision in Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) on June 30, 2026, not Friday June 26, 2026. The Court's opinion-release record shows opinions issued June 25, June 29 and June 30; no opinions were handed down on June 26, 2026. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The named decision (Trump v. Barbara) was in fact handed down, just four days past the stated Friday June 26 date — well inside a narrow slip.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[4231,"Iran struck vessels using the US-Navy-protected southern/Omani corridor repeatedly after 2026-06-25: attacks on tankers using the US Navy route around July 7 raised the Hormuz threat level to 'severe'; on July 13 the IRGC said it struck two more tankers (UAE-flagged al-Bahiya and Mombasa) with missiles in Omani territorial waters, killing one crew member; CNBC reported further stepped-up attacks by July 17. Well over the two-attack threshold.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/iran-strait-hormuz-oil-tanker-lng.html","research"],[4229,"The DOJ fought rather than complied: after Judge Emmet Sullivan's June 25, 2026 preliminary injunction in Phang v. Blanche set a July 2 production deadline (and he refused DOJ's request to pause it), the department let the deadline pass, defended each redaction, and announced an appeal, leaving at least eight sets of email records and a draft indictment still redacted and triggering a contempt motion.","https://easternherald.com/2026/07/04/doj-defends-epstein-file-redactions-court-deadline-appeal/","research"],[5591,"Schwarber was initially named an NL reserve behind fan-elected leading vote-getter Shohei Ohtani, but on July 13, 2026 he was officially named Ohtani's replacement after Ohtani withdrew with left knee inflammation, and Schwarber started the July 14 All-Star Game as the NL's designated hitter batting leadoff — not the backup DH. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The announced rosters did list Schwarber as the NL reserve DH behind fan-elected starter Ohtani; he only became the starter on July 13 when Ohtani withdrew injured — a narrow, late-breaking flip of one detail while the core call held.","https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49351976/phillies-kyle-schwarber-lead-nl-all-star-game","research"],[6834,"No public record of Tucker Carlson and Joy Reid appearing together on any show or podcast on or before July 31, 2026; coverage through mid-2026 shows only the two attacking each other from their separate platforms, and a joint appearance would have been widely reported.","https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/joy-reid-mocks-tucker-carlson/","research"],[6645,"Brad Lander defeated incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York's 10th Congressional District, roughly 62% to 38%.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/goldman-ny-house-loss-district-10-lander-primary-election-rcna351126","research"],[5589,"Spain won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 in extra time on July 19, 2026 on a Ferran Torres goal; England was not the champion.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/19/nx-s1-5899071/2026-world-cup-fifa-argentina-spain-final-championship","research"],[5419,"All three decisions issued in late June 2026: the Court struck down Trump's birthright-citizenship order 6-3 (Trump v. Barbara, 6/30/26) and in Trump v. Cook (6/29/26, 5-4) upheld for-cause protections for Fed governors, letting Lisa Cook stay — two losses for the administration — while Trump v. Slaughter (6/29/26, 6-3) went the administration's way by overruling Humphrey's Executor.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25a312_5468.pdf","research"],[5043,"Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on July 22, 2026 that Iran made commitments in the June 17, 2026 memorandum of understanding and 'within two weeks violated it,' and a U.S. official said Trump was focused on making Iran pay for its MOU violations. Independent satellite-imagery analysis published July 8, 2026 also documented continued construction at the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site in breach of the MOU's status-quo commitment, and U.S. strikes on Iran resumed on July 20, 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz-.html","research"],[4224,"The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again after the June 2026 reopening: Iran struck and disabled tankers there in July, the IRGC vowed to keep the strait closed as long as US 'wrongdoing' continued, and by late July commercial transit had fallen to roughly 11% of pre-crisis volume (about 10 vessels a day versus a typical 88), stranding around 6,000 seafarers.","https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/07/1167905","research"],[4223,"US-Iran hostilities resumed after the June 17, 2026 MOU: Trump notified Congress that 'limited' military action had resumed, the US launched multiple nights of strikes across Iran beginning July 9, 2026, Iran struck US regional allies and two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and CENTCOM reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[4217,"Andy Burnham was declared leader of the UK Labour Party on July 17, 2026, succeeding Keir Starmer; he was the sole eligible candidate with 379 MP nominations (94%) and was appointed prime minister by King Charles III on July 20, 2026.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/andy-burnham-is-declared-leader-of-uks-labour-party-pledges-to-restore-hope","research"],[4214,"The 60-day period ended without a final agreement, but the United States rejected an extension. Because the prediction required both no final deal and a rollover into another 60-day extension, it failed.","https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608172808","research"],[3373,"ICE launched its long-anticipated surge operation into New York City on July 27, 2026, beginning in Queens and expanding across the metro area, after border czar Tom Homan publicly announced the surge in response to the city's sanctuary policies.","https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/immigration/ice-new-york-city-sources/","research"],[3567,"No final US-Iran agreement was signed at the close of the 60-day negotiating window opened by the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which expired in mid-August 2026. Talks stalled over security guarantees and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and rather than a signed document the parties were still negotiating an extension as the deadline arrived. As of August 18, 2026 hopes for a lasting US-Iran deal had faded further, with Iran announcing a fully offensive military posture. Both components of the claim held: no document was signed at the end of the 60 days, and the negotiating period was rolled over rather than concluded. The claim as stated came true.","https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5929012-trump-iran-negotiation-timeline/","research"],[3566,"IDF forces captured the Iranian-engineered underground Hezbollah drone factory and launch site built into a mountain beneath Majdal Zoun in southern Lebanon (tunnels reaching 29 meters deep, ~50 armed UAVs inside) and demolished the facility on June 28, 2026, after the June 22 prediction.","https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-captures-hezbollah-drone-factory-and-launch-site-hidden-inside-south-lebanon-mountain/","research"],[6833,"In its June 29, 2026 Watson v. RNC decision (5-4, opinion by Barrett), the Supreme Court upheld Mississippi's law counting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to five days later, holding federal law sets the deadline for casting a ballot, not for receiving it — the opposite of barring pre-Election-Day distribution and post-Election-Day collection.","https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/06/29/supreme-court-watson-rnc-mail-ballots-absentee-deadline-grace-period/","research"],[3564,"Iran withheld implementation of the MOU: the Strait of Hormuz was never fully reopened, IRGC attacks on merchant shipping resumed July 7, and negotiations stalled, with the US reinstating its blockade July 14 and commercial transit at roughly 11% of pre-crisis volume by late July.","https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/07/1167905","research"],[6830,"Israel did strike southern Lebanon overnight into Friday June 19, 2026, killing dozens, but the return fire came from Hezbollah (drones, rockets and artillery), not Iranian missiles, and the US-Iran MOU signed June 17 remained formally in place. Near miss: the predicted Israeli strike on Lebanon occurred on exactly the named day and missiles did fly back, with only the retaliating actor wrong (Hezbollah rather than Iran itself), while the core call that the truce would not hold held up.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/israeli-attacks-on-southern-lebanon-kill-three-despite-us-iran-deal","research"],[6642,"US strikes on Iran resumed well before the ~Aug 17 end of the 60-day MOU window: after Iran hit three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, 2026, Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8 and the US launched more than 100 air attacks across Iran (ACLED counts 120+ since July 8), killing at least 50 people.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/mapping-the-latest-us-strikes-across-iran","research"],[6460,"Israeli strikes on Lebanon continued without pause after the mid-June 2026 US-Iran MOU and the June 26 Israel-Lebanon framework: airstrikes near Ghandour Hospital and on Braashit in early July, a July 8 wave ahead of the Rome talks, a fatal July 11 vehicle strike in Kfar Reman, escalated July 16 strikes on Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and July 23-24 attacks on al-Mansouri, Majdal Zoun and an ambulance in Nabatieh; UN News still logged Israeli operations over Lebanon in early August 2026.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/24/israel-carries-out-blasts-across-south-lebanon-despite-ceasefire-deal","research"],[5869,"The June 18, 2026 agreement did not require Iran to surrender its missiles; Trump publicly said it is 'okay' for Iran to keep ballistic missiles and pushed the issue to follow-on talks, and Iran retained and used an operational arsenal after the deal collapsed in July 2026.","https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-deal-takes-force-trump-says-its-okay-for-iran-to-have-some-ballistic-missiles/","research"],[4625,"The June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding broke down and the US resumed bombing: strikes hit more than 80 Iranian targets on July 7, 2026, continued for at least nine consecutive days, and further US and Iranian strikes followed on July 13 and July 20 after three US service members were killed. Trump said the MOU was 'over.'","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/why-have-us-iran-strikes-resumed-and-what-does-it-mean-for-peace-talks","research"],[4198,"After the mid-June 2026 hydrogen-peroxide/nanobubble treatment the algae was not eliminated - reporting notes the 12% hydrogen peroxide was poured into the 6.75-million-gallon pool and 'the algae barely budged.' Algae was still turning the pool's water green as of the morning of Friday, July 10, 2026, when the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool was drained for the third time in three months over algae blooms and peeling sealant.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/07/10/reflecting-pool-still-green-drained-for-a-third-time-as-renovation-drags-on/","research"],[3560,"Trump berated Netanyahu privately (the June 1 Axios-reported 'you're f---ing crazy' call) and publicly confirmed the remark on June 3, but coupled it with continued praise ('I like Bibi a lot... we still get along') and never withdrew support; by July 28 he hosted Netanyahu for a White House meeting both sides called excellent, so no public break occurred by ~July 18.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/03/g-s1-125631/trump-confirms-calling-netanyahu-crazy-says-they-still-get-along","research"],[5030,"The signing was moved up exactly as Bannon said: Trump and Pezeshkian digitally signed the US-Iran MOU on Wednesday June 17, 2026 (reported by Axios June 17 and covered by CNN's June 18 live blog, 'US and Iran sign initial agreement'), with the agreement in force before the scheduled June 19 Geneva ceremony, which was then cancelled.","https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/iran-deal-signing-text-release","research"],[5028,"The first half was right — Pulte took office as acting DNI on Friday, June 19, 2026 — but he did not last two months: the Senate confirmed Jay Clayton as DNI on July 28, 2026, ending Pulte's tenure at about 39 days.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/jay-clayton-bill-pulte-senate-vote-trump-spy-chief.html","research"],[5026,"Trump moved Pulte's start date up 11 days from Gabbard's June 30 departure to June 19, 2026, and CNN reported that day that the 'new acting intel chief Bill Pulte arrives early' and took office at ODNI on Friday, June 19, 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/19/politics/bill-pulte-intel-chief-takes-office","research"],[5024,"Pulte was indeed installed as acting DNI on June 19, 2026, but he served only about five and a half weeks — the Senate confirmed Jay Clayton as DNI on July 28, 2026, replacing Pulte, far short of the predicted three-to-four months (i.e. through October 2026).","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/jay-clayton-bill-pulte-senate-vote-trump-spy-chief.html","research"],[5022,"Clayton was not confirmed or sworn in during the week of June 22-26, 2026. Bill Pulte took office as acting DNI on June 19, 2026 and held the job until Clayton's Senate confirmation on July 28, 2026 (51-47).","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910749/senate-confirms-jay-clayton-as-director-of-national-intelligence","research"],[7461,"The merger has not closed and cannot close inside the stated window: 12 state attorneys general sued in July 2026, Paramount agreed to a standstill barring closing until five days after trial or June 1, 2027, and on August 4, 2026 Judge Martinez-Olguin set the antitrust trial for March 2-19, 2027, putting any completion well past 2026-12-31.","https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/paramount-warner-bros-antitrust-trial-date-march-2027-1236827843/","research"],[7460,"Scotland lost to both named opponents in 2026 World Cup Group C: 0-2 to Morocco on June 19-20 and 0-3 to Brazil on June 24, finishing on 3 points and exiting at the group stage without beating either team.","https://www.fifa.com/en/match-centre/match/17/285023/289273/400021455","research"],[6829,"The US and Iran signed the 14-point MOU on June 17, 2026 and the ceasefire held through the June 19 window; Iran's first violation (drone strikes on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz) came June 25, and Trump did not declare the ceasefire 'over' until July 8-9, 2026 at the NATO summit, roughly three weeks past the stated window.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[5019,"No Senate confirmation vote on Jay Clayton occurred on June 25-26, 2026. Trump cancelled Clayton's June hearing, and the Senate did not vote until July 28, 2026, confirming him 51-47 on a party-line vote.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910749/senate-confirms-jay-clayton-as-director-of-national-intelligence","research"],[4190,"On June 21, 2026 Joint Task Force Southern Spear, at the direction of SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, conducted a lethal strike on an alleged drug vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing two and leaving six survivors — an additional strike after the June 16 prediction date.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/us-strike-alleged-drug-boat-kills-2-leaves-6-survivors-eastern-pacific-rcna351106","research"],[4188,"The MOU collapsed within weeks: the US revoked Iran's oil-sales license on July 7, 2026 after alleged Iranian attacks on commercial vessels; Trump declared the MoU 'over' on July 8, 2026; and on July 18, 2026 Iranian Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi announced Iran was suspending its MoU commitments, citing US breaches. No successor agreement was reached and the 60-day negotiation never concluded.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[5585,"A US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopened the strait around June 17, 2026; Kpler counted at least 20 tanker transits on June 18 (the highest since June 2) and traffic kept climbing to roughly 25 vessels per day between late June and early July, up from a near-shutdown earlier in the month.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/iran-oil-tanker-traffic-strait-hormuz-gulf-vlcc.html","research"],[5023,"The opposite happened: Bill Pulte, not Jay Clayton, held the DNI post after Gabbard's departure. Trump moved Pulte's start up to June 19, 2026, and there was no expedited Senate process for Clayton — his June hearing was cancelled and he was confirmed only on July 28, 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/19/politics/bill-pulte-intel-chief-takes-office","research"],[5017,"A formally executed US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17, 2026 by Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian (signed digitally/remotely rather than in Geneva), and it took effect immediately; NPR published the full text on June 18, 2026.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863027/us-iran-trump-memorandum-of-understanding-full-text","research"],[3552,"Trump signed a 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026 that waived sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days (freeing ~67M barrels) and permitted on-site dilution/down-blending of Iran's 60%-enriched stockpile under IAEA supervision rather than requiring export, leaving Iran with enriched uranium. The criteria explicitly count a signed agreement/MOU with sanctions relief and retained enriched uranium.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/what-the-us-and-iran-agreed-and-disagreed-on-first-day-of-talks","research"],[6828,"The June 29, 2026 Watson v. RNC opinion did not hold that universal mail-in voting is impermissible; it addressed only absentee-ballot receipt grace periods and upheld Mississippi's five-day window, leaving state mail-voting systems untouched.","https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/06/29/supreme-court-watson-rnc-mail-ballots-absentee-deadline-grace-period/","research"],[6827,"Watson v. RNC was decided on June 29, 2026, 16 days after the June 13, 2026 statement and within the stated one-to-two-week / end-of-June window.","https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/watson-v-republican-national-committee/","research"],[5015,"Jay Clayton was not confirmed within five days of June 13, 2026. Trump abruptly cancelled Clayton's scheduled June confirmation hearing; Clayton testified to the Senate Intelligence Committee in July and the Senate confirmed him 51-47 on July 28, 2026 — roughly six weeks past the predicted window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5910749/senate-confirms-jay-clayton-as-director-of-national-intelligence","research"],[4178,"After the $16M+ renovation painted the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool 'American flag blue' and it was refilled, the water turned dark green from algae within days (NBC News/CNN, June 18-20, 2026); Trump had it drained again on July 13-14, 2026, and PBS-cited experts called the algae bloom natural and expected.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/reflecting-pool-green-algae-trump-rcna350278","research"],[8073,"SpaceX's June 12, 2026 Nasdaq debut raised $75B and its market cap topped $2.1 trillion after shares jumped 19% at the close of its first trading day, widely reported (NPR, CNBC) as the largest IPO in history, shattering Saudi Aramco's prior record.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-stock-jumps-2-trillion.html","research"],[7453,"SpaceX (SPCX) opened at $150 on June 12, 2026 and closed its first trading day at $161.11, up 19.3% from the $135 IPO price — it both popped out of the gates and closed the day up.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html","research"],[6824,"On June 13, 2026 Trump did not call off the Iran de-escalation; he criticized Israel's Beirut strike as something that 'should not have happened' while saying the US remained very close to a deal. Mediators announced a memorandum of understanding on June 14 and the US and Iran signed a 14-point MOU on June 17, 2026. Trump did not declare the ceasefire over until July 8, 2026, nearly a month later.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/13/nx-s1-5857149/trump-iran-war-peace-deal","research"],[6448,"Five days after the claim, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on 2026-06-17 declaring an 'immediate and permanent termination of military operations,' reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing sanctions — a signed deal, which the criteria state falsifies the claim. Near miss because the substantive call held: the MOU unraveled within weeks (Iranian attacks on shipping on June 25 and July 7-8 drew US airstrikes and Trump declared the MOU no longer in force), so no durable peace was in place by August.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl","research"],[5860,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Trump v. Barbara that children born in the U.S. to unlawfully or temporarily present parents are citizens at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment, striking down the executive order; it cannot be applied to anyone.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5839358/birthright-citizenship-decision-scotus-trump","research"],[5013,"Trump never traveled to Geneva. He and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding remotely on June 17, 2026 — Trump signed at a dinner at Versailles, filmed by Macron — and the June 19 Geneva signing ceremony was cancelled because the deal was already in force; only the Vance/Ghalibaf delegation meeting went ahead in Switzerland.","https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/iran-deal-signing-text-release","research"],[5012,"SpaceX (SPCX) IPO'd on Nasdaq June 12, 2026 and was added to the Nasdaq-100 effective July 7, 2026 — just 15 trading days later, under a new fast-entry rule — plus fast-entry inclusion in the Russell 1000 and CRSP US Total Market, forcing an estimated $22-27B of mechanical index-fund buying. (The S&P 500 kept its 12-month seasoning rule, so that one waits until 2027, but the criterion's 'e.g., S&P/Nasdaq-100' test was met well within three months.)","https://www.etf.com/sections/news/spacex-joins-nasdaq-100-july-7-here-are-etfs-feel-it-most","research"],[5009,"Clayton was not confirmed by June 18, 2026 — Trump abruptly canceled the scheduled June confirmation hearing; Clayton finally testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee on July 15 and was confirmed 51-47 on July 28, 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/jay-clayton-bill-pulte-senate-vote-trump-spy-chief.html","research"],[3550,"A sustained US military campaign resumed well before mid-August: beginning July 8, 2026 and continuing through mid-July, the US carried out repeated waves of strikes on dozens of Iranian military sites (about 140 in one night) and reinstated the naval blockade — beyond one-off retaliation.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/us-launches-new-attacks-on-iran-as-tehran-targets-gulf-sites","research"],[6823,"The June 29, 2026 Watson v. RNC opinion did the opposite of ending post-Election Day ballot counting: it upheld Mississippi's law counting ballots postmarked by Election Day and received up to five business days later, preserving grace periods in 14 states and DC.","https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/06/29/supreme-court-watson-rnc-mail-ballots-absentee-deadline-grace-period/","research"],[6822,"The Supreme Court issued its decision in Watson v. Republican National Committee (No. 24-1260) on June 29, 2026, roughly 18 days after the June 11, 2026 prediction and within the stated end-of-June window.","https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/watson-v-republican-national-committee/","research"],[5856,"The BLS June 2026 CPI (released July 14, 2026) shows the food index up 0.2% over the month, with food-at-home also +0.2% and food-away-from-home +0.2% — i.e., readings after May 2026 came in above the May 2026 level; food prices were up 3.0% year over year.","https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm","research"],[5008,"The New York Times hardcover nonfiction list published June 21, 2026 was topped by Jill Biden's 'View from the East Wing' (June 14 was David Sedaris, June 28 was Belle Burden); Metaxas's 'Revolution' never reached #1, peaking at #2.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_The_New_York_Times_number-one_books_of_2026","research"],[5007,"The Senate confirmed Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence 51-47 on the evening of Tuesday, July 28, 2026 — within the end-of-July window.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/jay-clayton-bill-pulte-senate-vote-trump-spy-chief.html","research"],[5006,"After the June 11 extension failed 198-218, the House left town and was not scheduled back until June 23; Speaker Johnson explicitly declined to recall members ('What would be the point of me going through this exercise?'), so Section 702 lapsed June 12 with no House vote during June 15-19.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-vote-extension-fisa-702-spy-power-bill-pulte-uproar-trump/","research"],[5005,"SpaceX Class A shares began trading on Nasdaq on Friday, June 12, 2026 under ticker SPCX, not Monday June 15; June 15 was only the closing/settlement of the offering and the stock's first full trading day. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Core call held — the largest IPO in history did happen — with only the date detail off by one trading day (traded Friday June 12; June 15 was the offering's closing and first full trading day).","https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp--Announces-Closing-of-Initial-Public-Offering-Including-Full-Exercise-of-Underwriters-Option-to-Purchase-Additional-Shares-2026-RgoR-Y1Vwh/default.aspx","research"],[4169,"A US-Iran agreement was in fact signed: on June 17, 2026 Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum (with Pakistan's prime minister as mediator), a 14-point MOU ending the war and opening a 60-day negotiation window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863027/us-iran-trump-memorandum-of-understanding-full-text","research"],[4168,"The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17, 2026 by Trump and Pezeshkian contains no Iranian commitment regarding Hezbollah, the Houthis or Iraqi militias; reporting explicitly lists Iran's 'network of non-state allies' among the issues left unaddressed. A final deal was still unsigned as of late July 2026, so the Dec 31 window technically remains open.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl","research"],[4167,"BLS released the June 2026 PPI on July 15, 2026: final demand producer prices rose 5.5% over the 12 months ended June 2026 (down from 6.5% in May), not the predicted ~7.2% 'seven handle'.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/final-demand-producer-prices-up-5-5-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2026.htm","research"],[6819,"In Watson v. RNC, decided June 29, 2026, the Supreme Court held 5-4 that states may count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day so long as they were cast and postmarked by Election Day, upholding Mississippi's grace period. Barrett wrote that the electorate's choice is made when voting is complete, not when ballots are received.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-mail-ballots-mississippi-law-watson-v-rnc/","research"],[6818,"The only unrest reported after the June 9, 2026 guilty verdict was localized shouting matches and brief scuffles between opposing demonstrators outside the Collin County courthouse in McKinney, with deputies separating people and one man handcuffed. No riots or widespread civil unrest in US cities were attributed to the verdict in the weeks that followed.","https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/crowds-clash-outside-karmelo-anthony-113719488.html","research"],[5852,"At UFC Freedom 250 on the White House South Lawn on June 14, 2026, none of the named invitees (Adam Sandler, Guy Ritchie, Tom Brady, Jared Leto, Jason Statham, Dwayne Johnson, Mario Lopez) attended; the celebrity turnout consisted of others such as Jack Osbourne, Tony Hinchcliffe and Shane Gillis.","https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/trump-dana-whites-star-studded-white-house-ufc-event-draws-big-names-while-several-invited-a-listers-skip","research"],[7452,"SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 11, 2026 and opened at $150 on June 12, trading as high as $176.52 and closing at $161.11 — a 19.3% first-day pop on the largest US listing ever, with roughly 30% of the 555 million shares reserved for retail.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html","research"],[7450,"Tech stocks fell sharply in the period around the June 2026 SpaceX listing and pending AI IPOs: the Nasdaq 100 entered a technical correction on July 28-29, 2026, down about 11% from its record, with the Nasdaq Composite closing 1.74% lower at 24,442.94 and chip stocks shedding more than $1 trillion in market value.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/stock-market-today-live-updates.html","research"],[7445,"Twelve state attorneys general led by California's Rob Bonta sued to block the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger on July 13, 2026, and a federal judge granted a temporary restraining order halting the merger on July 20, 2026 — both the filing and the resulting delay occurred.","https://coag.gov/press-releases/state-ags-win-court-order-pausing-paramount-warner-bros-merger/","research"],[6814,"The Supreme Court decided Watson v. RNC (No. 24-1260) on June 29, 2026, ruling 5-4 (Barrett writing, joined by Roberts and the three liberals) that federal law does NOT bar states from counting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterward, upholding Mississippi's five-day grace period. The opposite of the predicted holding.","https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/06/29/supreme-court-watson-rnc-mail-ballots-absentee-deadline-grace-period/","research"],[6813,"A Collin County, Texas jury convicted Karmelo Anthony of murder on June 9, 2026 after about three hours of deliberation and sentenced him to 35 years in prison for the April 2025 stabbing of Austin Metcalf at a Frisco track meet.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Austin_Metcalf","research"],[6640,"The New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals, clinching with a 94-90 Game 5 win on June 13, 2026 for their first title since 1973; Jalen Brunson was Finals MVP.","https://www.nba.com/news/live-updates-2026-nba-finals-game-5-knicks-seek-first-title-since-1973","research"],[4998,"No candidate cleared 50% in the June 9, 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary, sending the race to a June 23 runoff, which Attorney General Alan Wilson won over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette.","https://ballotpedia.org/South_Carolina_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2026","research"],[4618,"No jury nullification occurred: the Collin County jury convicted Karmelo Anthony of murder on June 9, 2026 and imposed a 35-year sentence after rejecting a 'sudden passion' finding.","https://www.foxnews.com/us/karmelo-anthony-jury-reaches-verdict-murder-trial-texas-track-meet-stabbing","research"],[4147,"The S&P 500 closed at 7,386.65 on June 9, 2026 and at 7,543.64 on July 9, 2026 (+0.81% that day) — about 2% higher a month later, not lower.","https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-july-9-2026","research"],[4146,"EIA weekly US retail gasoline prices fell after June 9, 2026: $4.281 on 06/08, $4.187 on 06/15, $4.048 on 06/22, $3.964 on 06/29, $3.911 on 07/06 and $3.987 on 07/13. A month after the claim, prices were roughly 30 cents per gallon lower, not higher.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w","research"],[4141,"The CPI report released June 10, 2026 (May 2026 data) showed headline inflation at 4.2% year over year, a three-year high, not the predicted 4.0-4.1%. The next print (June data, released July 14) was 3.5%. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Predicted 4.0-4.1% CPI vs actual 4.2% - within ~2.5% of the named figure, well inside the 10% near-miss band.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html","research"],[4138,"The court docket records the government's opposition filing on June 9. The brief argued that the plaintiffs' alleged injuries were self-inflicted and therefore insufficient for standing.","https://clearinghouse.net/case/48212/","research"],[4997,"Eric Metaxas's 'Revolution' (published June 2, 2026 by Skyhorse) hit #2 on the New York Times bestseller list in June 2026, as billed on the author's and publisher's pages ('#2 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER'); it was also #1 on Publishers Weekly and BookScan.","https://ericmetaxas.com/books/revolution/","research"],[4994,"Israeli operations in Lebanon continued well past June 8, 2026: Israeli strikes killed at least 47 in southern Lebanon on June 18 (after the US-Iran deal), and further strikes around June 20 killed dozens more, with the IDF saying it hit 150+ Hezbollah targets.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/israeli-attacks-on-southern-lebanon-kill-three-despite-us-iran-deal","research"],[4617,"The Collin County jury returned a guilty verdict — not an acquittal or hung jury — against Karmelo Anthony on June 9, 2026, within the June 30, 2026 window, followed by a 35-year sentence.","https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/texas/2026/06/10/554105/karmelo-anthony-austin-metcalf-stabbing-track-meet-frisco/","research"],[3365,"Graham Platner won the June 9, 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary with 77.7% of the vote to 16.7% for Janet Mills despite the allegations against him (he later withdrew from the race in July, but the primary-win criterion was met).","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[4131,"Reporting on June 10, 2026 (citing the New York Times) confirmed that Mehdi Taj, president of Iran's soccer federation, was among the Iranian officials denied US visas for the 2026 World Cup; Taj is a former IRGC official. The Iranian squad itself was admitted.","https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/jun/10/iran-team-officials-denied-visas-to-enter-us-for-w/","research"],[7442,"Amazon was the next mega-cap to announce a large capital raise after Alphabet's June 1-2 $80B equity offering: it kicked off its Canadian offering June 8, 2026 and priced a record C$14 billion (~$10B) deal on June 10, ahead of Nvidia's June 15 $25B bond sale; Amazon followed with at least $25B more on July 7.","https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/amazon-issues-record-setting-canadian-dollar-denominated-corporate-bond-deal/","research"],[7441,"After Alphabet's $80B (upsized to $84.75B) equity raise announced June 1-2, 2026, multiple mega-caps followed: Amazon sold a record C$14B (~$10B) Canadian bond starting June 8, Nvidia priced a $25B bond June 15 (its first since 2021), and Amazon raised at least another $25B on July 7 — part of ~$244B in bonds issued by six big tech names through mid-July 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/amazon-bond-sale-ai-debt.html","research"],[6440,"The Israeli legislative election was scheduled for 2026-10-27, so it is now impossible for Netanyahu to have lost an election and left office by the 2026-08-31 deadline; he remains prime minister as of 2026-08-08, roughly five months after the 'couple of months' the claim allowed.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election","research"],[4992,"The White House formally transmitted the nomination of 'Todd Blanche, of Florida, to be Attorney General' to the Senate on June 8, 2026, three days after the prediction and well before the June 30 deadline.","https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/nomination-sent-to-the-senate-3556/","research"],[4991,"At the first FOMC meeting after June 5, 2026 (June 16-17), the committee voted 12-0 to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth straight meeting; the new dot plot removed the prior 2026 cut and signaled possible hikes.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm","research"],[4616,"A Collin County jury convicted Karmelo Anthony of murder on June 9, 2026 in the stabbing death of Austin Metcalf, and he was sentenced to 35 years the same day.","https://abcnews.com/US/karmelo-anthony-murder-trial-verdict-reached-texas-track/story?id=133687338","research"],[4615,"Nithya Raman did overtake Spencer Pratt as late ballots were counted: certified June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary results show Bass 34.3% (292,593), Raman 29.0% (247,781), Pratt 25.5% (217,977), so Raman — not Pratt — took the second November runoff slot.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election","research"],[4614,"Steve Hilton led California's June 2, 2026 top-two gubernatorial primary with roughly 28% and advanced to the November 3, 2026 general election alongside Democrat Xavier Becerra (~25%).","https://ballotpedia.org/California_gubernatorial_election,_2026_(June_2_top-two_primary)","research"],[4124,"Rather than a mid-June spike, oil prices fell sharply: Brent averaged $85/barrel in June 2026, $22 below the May average, after the June 17-18 US-Iran MOU reopened the Strait of Hormuz. EIA data showed commercial crude at 412.1 million barrels (7% below the five-year average) for the week ending June 19 - low but not a critical threshold - and no double-digit percentage price jump occurred by June 20.","https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php","research"],[6633,"As late ballots were counted after the June 2026 LA mayoral primary, progressive city council member Nithya Raman overtook Spencer Pratt for second place, advancing to the November 2026 runoff against incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.","https://abc7news.com/post/california-election-results-progressive-nithya-raman-beats-spencer-pratt-take-2nd-spot-los-angeles-mayors-race/19259806/","research"],[5398,"Steve Hilton led on election night (about 28% to Becerra's 26% at 56% counted) but faded as late mail ballots were tallied: by the Friday drop at 65% counted Becerra led 26.7% to 26.4%, and Hilton was down to about 25% at 88% counted. The AP called Becerra's advancement on June 5, five days before Hilton's on June 10; Becerra finished first and Hilton second, both advancing to November.","https://time.com/article/2026/06/02/california-governor-primary-results-becerra-hilton-steyer-newsom/","research"],[4990,"SpaceX, which completed an all-stock merger with Musk's AI company xAI in February 2026, priced its IPO on June 11, 2026 at $135 for 555.55 million shares, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest IPO on record, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion in 2019.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/12/nx-s1-5855004/stock-ai-spacex-ipo-elon-musk","research"],[4986,"Bolton's plea agreement was concluded and he pleaded guilty on June 26, 2026 to one felony count of illegal retention of national security information; the deal requires a debriefing with federal intelligence officials, up to 100 hours of community service and a $2 million-plus fine, with sentencing set for Oct. 28. Reporting on the agreement describes no cooperation or testimony against other individuals.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ex-national-security-adviser-john-bolton-pleads-guilty-to-illegally-retaining-classified-information","research"],[4122,"No US-Iran agreement was announced during the week of June 5, 2026; instead Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel's Ramat David airbase on June 7 and Israel struck Lebanon on June 8. The first signed US-Iran document came only on June 15-18, 2026 (virtual signing June 15, 14-point MOU June 17).","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/7/iran-fires-missiles-at-israel-after-beirut-attack-crossed-all-red-lines","research"],[4118,"EIA weekly data for the week ending June 19, 2026 showed U.S. commercial crude inventories at 412.1 million barrels, about 7% below the five-year average - well above tank-bottom/emergency operational minimums - and the Strait of Hormuz reopening MOU was signed June 17-18, 2026, easing supply. No EIA/IEA or industry report confirmed tank bottoms by June 18, 2026.","https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67805","research"],[6625,"Spencer Pratt finished third in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary with 217,977 votes (25.5%), behind Karen Bass (292,593; 34.3%) and Nithya Raman (247,781; 29.0%). Raman overtook Pratt during the count and advanced to the November runoff against Bass; Pratt was eliminated.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election","research"],[6429,"In the weeks after June 3, 2026 Trump escalated rather than settling: the US reinstated the naval blockade of Iranian ports July 14, ran multiple waves of strikes aimed at Iran's ability to target vessels in Hormuz, disabled a tanker bound for Kharg Island, and threatened further strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/14/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[4609,"California's June 2, 2026 top-two gubernatorial primary results show Republican Steve Hilton finishing second behind Democrat Xavier Becerra, advancing both to the November 2026 general election.","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/california-governor-primary-hilton-advances/","research"],[3540,"Mike Rogers ran unopposed and secured the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in Michigan's August 4, 2026 primary, receiving 879,934 votes.","https://www.michigandaily.com/news/government/mike-rogers-secures-republican-primary-in-michigan-will-face-abdul-el-sayed-in-november/","research"],[3355,"Final June 2026 California gubernatorial primary results put Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra in the top two, advancing both to the November runoff; Tom Steyer failed to make the top two.","https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/06/california-governor-primary-hilton-advances/","research"],[3354,"Certified results of the June 2, 2026 LA mayoral primary show no candidate topped 50%, but Karen Bass and Nithya Raman — not Bass and Spencer Pratt — advanced to the November runoff after Raman overtook Pratt for second place as late mail ballots were counted; Pratt was eliminated in third.","https://abc7news.com/post/california-election-results-progressive-nithya-raman-beats-spencer-pratt-take-2nd-spot-los-angeles-mayors-race/19259806/","research"],[8065,"Spencer Pratt was overtaken by Nithya Raman for second place in the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary as later ballots were counted, finishing third and failing to advance to the November runoff against Karen Bass.","https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/spencer-pratt-nithya-raman-primary-la-mayor-election-results/3900328/","research"],[6427,"The US resumed sustained direct military action rather than cutting a peace deal: CENTCOM reimposed the naval blockade of Iranian ports on July 14, 2026 and conducted strikes on Iran on at least four consecutive nights in mid-July, with Trump threatening to hit bridges and power plants and Iran's foreign ministry saying it had no plans to negotiate.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/15/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[5396,"EIA weekly data put the SPR at 349.2 million barrels on June 5, 2026 and ~340 million by mid-June - reported as the lowest since 1983/March 1984, not the lowest on record. The SPR held far less than this during its 1977-1983 fill period, so it did not reach an all-time record low by the week of June 9, 2026 (it was still 325.7 million barrels, 'lowest since May 1983,' as of the week ending July 2). | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The core call — SPR collapsing to a multi-decade low on that timeline — held (lowest since 1983 by early June); only the 'on record' superlative was wrong because of the 1977-83 fill period.","https://mansfield.energy/2026/07/02/strategic-petroleum-reserve-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1983/","research"],[5395,"Israel resumed strikes on Beirut on June 7, 2026, hitting the Dahiyeh district (Al-Mreijeh area) with three missiles in a retaliatory attack on what it called Hezbollah headquarters, killing two and wounding 11 per Lebanon's National News Agency - the first strike on the capital since the early-June pause.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/07/nx-s1-5849220/israel-lebanon-beirut-airstrike-ceasefire","research"],[4978,"Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth and running mate Ryan Wilson filed on the morning of June 2, 2026 for the August 11 Republican gubernatorial primary, staying in the race after losing the party endorsement to Kendall Qualls, setting up a primary against Qualls and Mike Lindell.","https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/06/02/house-speaker-lisa-demuth-to-run-in-gop-primary-for-governor","research"],[4608,"On June 9, 2026 a Collin County, Texas jury found Karmelo Anthony guilty of murder in the April 2, 2025 stabbing death of Austin Metcalf at a Frisco ISD track meet; the same day jurors rejected 'sudden passion' and sentenced him to 35 years in prison.","https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/live-updates/live-updates-karmelo-anthony-murder-trial-fatal-stabbing-austin-metcalf-frisco-track-meet/","research"],[4606,"In a 47-page order issued June 12, 2026, U.S. District Judge Lewis Liman ruled Lively made her sexual misconduct complaints 'without malice' and is entitled to attorneys' fees under California Civil Code 47.1, ordering Baldoni/Wayfarer to pay them; he denied only the treble and punitive damages on procedural grounds. Lively filed a fee bill of $8,035,040.88 on July 9, 2026 (amount still to be set).","https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/blake-lively-justin-baldoni-judge-ruling-defamation-legal-fees-rcna349826","research"],[3352,"CBS News fired Scott Pelley on June 2, 2026, one day after he criticized 60 Minutes' new leadership; editor-in-chief Bari Weiss publicly defended the firing, saying trust with Pelley was 'broken'.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/02/media/scott-pelley-60-minutes-cbs-meeting-bari-weiss-cibrowski-bilton","research"],[8063,"In the June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary, Nithya Raman (23.4%) overtook Spencer Pratt (29.4% at an earlier count but ultimately second) to finish second behind Karen Bass (35.1%) and advance to the November runoff, not third.","https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/spencer-pratt-nithya-raman-primary-la-mayor-election-results/3900328/","research"],[6622,"Within days-to-weeks of the June 17, 2026 memorandum that was supposed to end the blockade of the strait, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again on June 20, 2026, and IRGC-attributed missile and projectile attacks hit commercial shipping on July 6-7, July 11-12 (a crew member killed on the GFS Galaxy) and July 14, well inside the 12-month resolution window.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis","research"],[6621,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Trump v. Barbara, striking down Trump's executive order ending birthright citizenship and reaffirming that the Fourteenth Amendment guarantees it. That is the controlling ruling against the administration.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-order-ending-birthright-citizenship/","research"],[6620,"The U.S. and Iran announced an initial deal on June 15, 2026 to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump and President Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17-19, 2026 opening a 60-day negotiating period on the nuclear program and sanctions.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/15/nx-s1-5858590/us-iran-deal-updates","research"],[6075,"Graham Platner emailed a signed formal withdrawal letter to the Maine Secretary of State's office at about 4:40 p.m. on Friday, July 10, 2026 - before the 5 p.m. second-Monday-in-July deadline of July 13, 2026 - allowing the Maine Democratic Party to name a replacement nominee by July 27.","https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-07-10/graham-platner-files-formal-withdrawal-from-maines-senate-race","research"],[5849,"After the May 29, 2026 district court order to remove Trump's name from the Kennedy Center, the DOJ filed a notice of appeal and the Trump-appointed board voted to appeal to the D.C. Circuit (June 12, 2026), also seeking a stay; the D.C. Circuit denied the stay and later denied a further request on July 8, 2026.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/doj-appeals-kennedy-center-ruling-ahead-deadline-remove/story?id=133805014","research"],[5579,"On June 26, 2026 Judge Tony Graf held Deputy Utah County Attorney Christopher Ballard in civil contempt for violating the publicity order but imposed only expanded jury-selection procedures and gag-order clarifications; Ballard remained on the Robinson prosecution team alongside Ryan McBride and Chad Grunander through the July 2026 preliminary hearing.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/26/us/charlie-kirk-tyler-robinson-contempt-ruling","research"],[5394,"No major Israeli strikes on Beirut occurred on or about June 2, 2026. NPR reported that Israel's June 7, 2026 strike on Beirut's southern suburbs was 'the first such attack on the Lebanese capital since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was renewed last week,' confirming the predicted next-day bombardment did not happen within the June 3 window. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The predicted heavy Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs did occur, just five days past the stated next-day window — inside the ≤2-week late allowance.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/07/nx-s1-5849220/israel-lebanon-beirut-airstrike-ceasefire","research"],[5392,"Graham Platner won the June 9, 2026 Maine Democratic US Senate primary with 77.7% of the vote (Janet Mills 16.7%, David Costello 5.6%), roughly a week after the sexually explicit texts story broke on June 1. He became the Democratic nominee; his later July 8 withdrawal stemmed from a separate sexual assault allegation, not the texts story.","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[4605,"A June 17, 2026 US-Iran ceasefire MOU collapsed within about a week after an Iranian drone strike on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz drew US retaliatory strikes; by July 9, 2026 a US projectile hit near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant and Trump stated the ceasefire had ended, so no agreement ending the conflict was concluded and holding by early July.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/trump-says-us-has-agreed-to-continue-iran-talks-but-ceasefire-over","research"],[4604,"Certified June 2, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary results show Karen Bass with 34.3% (292,593 votes), far below 50%, sending the race to a November 3, 2026 runoff against Nithya Raman.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election","research"],[4601,"Graham Platner won Maine's June 9, 2026 Democratic U.S. Senate primary with 77.7% of the vote to Gov. Janet Mills' 16.7% and David Costello's 5.6%, becoming the nominee against Sen. Susan Collins (he later withdrew from the general election on July 8, 2026, which is after the primary window).","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[4105,"The US national average for regular gasoline started June 2026 around $4.61 and fell to $3.99 by June 18, averaging $4.05 for the month — never approaching $6-$8/gallon, and no national fuel lines or shortages were reported by mid-June 2026.","https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-drops-below-4-gallon-as-summer-travel-heats-up/","research"],[3535,"The ceasefire collapsed and the US resumed major kinetic strikes on Iran starting July 8, 2026, after Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, including a second night of strikes on July 12 that hit about 140 Iranian military sites, plus further waves on July 13-16.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[4103,"In Phang v. Blanche the Justice Department argued Phang could not sue to compel unredacted release because FOIA was her only available remedy, and after Judge Sullivan's June 25-26, 2026 preliminary injunction DOJ's filings said it 'strongly disagrees' that the Epstein Files Transparency Act is enforceable by private parties through the APA — i.e., the no-private-cause-of-action/no-remedy argument MeidasTouch predicted.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2026/06/26/federal-judge-orders-doj-to-unredact-some-details-from-epstein-files/","research"],[4976,"The concluded MOU includes a fund release to the Iranian government: Paragraph 11 commits the U.S. 'to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU,' and Iran announced on June 23, 2026 that $12 billion in frozen assets would be released in two instalments.","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/read-it-full-text-us-iran-memorandum-understanding","research"],[6423,"Netanyahu ordered the IDF on May 28, 2026 to seize 70% of the Gaza Strip, and NPR reported on July 10, 2026 that Israel controls nearly 70% of Gaza, up from about 50% at the ceasefire and 60% in May.","https://www.npr.org/2026/07/10/nx-s1-5887357/israel-gaza-war-trump-ceasefire-military-control","research"],[4974,"Paragraph 6 of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 18, 2026 states the U.S. 'undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.' The $300bn fund became a public political flashpoint immediately after signing.","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/read-it-full-text-us-iran-memorandum-understanding","research"],[4973,"The signed MOU (Paragraph 11) commits the U.S. to make Iran's frozen and restricted funds fully available, and on June 23, 2026 Iran (Speaker Ghalibaf) said the two sides had finalized release of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets in two $6 billion instalments, following arrangements in Qatar and Switzerland. U.S. officials characterized it as pay-for-performance rather than unconditional up-front, but a ~$12bn fund release to Tehran is part of the concluded agreement.","https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/middle-east/iran-us-finalise-agreement-release-12-billion-frozen-assets-1469941","research"],[4600,"In the June 2, 2026 California top-two gubernatorial primary, Republican Steve Hilton (~28%) and Democrat Xavier Becerra (~25%) took the top two spots and advanced to November; Tom Steyer was third (~20%) and Katie Porter finished below that, conceding roughly two hours after polls closed.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2026/06/02/california-governor-primary-live-results-becerra-steyer-hilton-are-competing/","research"],[4599,"In California's June 2, 2026 top-two gubernatorial primary, Xavier Becerra (27.1%) and Republican Steve Hilton (25.1%) advanced; Chad Bianco finished well outside the top two with about 10%, behind Tom Steyer's roughly 23%.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/steve-hilton-advance-california-governor-race-xavier-becerra-rcna348575","research"],[4095,"The May 29, 2026 closed-door interview was not videotaped; Rep. Robert Garcia said Democrats were \"incredibly disappointed\" by the decision not to have the interview videotaped and released to the public.","https://newrepublic.com/post/211118/pam-bondi-testifies-congress-one-major-catch-republicans","research"],[4094,"Bondi's May 29, 2026 House Oversight appearance was a closed-door transcribed interview rather than a deposition, so she was not sworn in; Ranking Member Robert Garcia publicly complained the committee refused Democrats' request that the interview be conducted under oath.","https://newrepublic.com/post/211118/pam-bondi-testifies-congress-one-major-catch-republicans","research"],[3349,"Trump attended Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Finals (Knicks vs. Spurs) at Madison Square Garden on June 8, 2026, as a guest of James Dolan, becoming the first sitting president at an NBA Finals game; he was booed by the crowd.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2026/06/08/trump-greeted-with-boos-at-madison-square-garden-as-he-attends-nba-finals/","research"],[5843,"Q1 2026 real GDP grew 2.1% annualized and Q2 2026 grew 1.5% (BEA advance estimate, July 30, 2026). Hitting 4% for calendar 2026 would require roughly 6.5%+ annualized growth in both H2 quarters (or ~12%+ on an annual-average basis), which is not attainable from this base.","https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026","research"],[4969,"Trump signed the memorandum of understanding with Iran on June 18, 2026, including the naval-blockade provision Bannon said he could not accept: Paragraph 4 commits the U.S. to begin removing the blockade immediately and end it fully within 30 days. The U.S. lifted its blockade of Iranian ports on June 18, 2026 as the 60-day clock began.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863517/trump-iran-deal-blockade-strait-hormuz","research"],[4091,"The 29 May 2026 Bondi session was a closed-door transcribed interview; the committee released a written transcript but no video recording, and Ranking Member Robert Garcia publicly pressed Comer to film and release the testimony precisely because it was not being videotaped.","https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/4553311/robert-garcia-pushes-james-comer-film-release-bondi-testimony-epstein-files/","research"],[4090,"Bondi appeared before House Oversight on 29 May 2026 for a voluntary transcribed interview rather than a deposition, and was therefore not sworn in under oath; she was only reminded that false statements to Congress are criminally punishable.","https://www.newsnationnow.com/crime/pam-bondi-epstein-testimony-oversight-transcribed/","research"],[4958,"No final U.S.-Iran peace agreement existed by June 30, 2026. Trump and Pezeshkian signed only a preliminary one-page memorandum of understanding on June 18, 2026, which explicitly started a 60-day negotiating period to try to reach a final deal; talks in Switzerland on June 22 were still working toward that final agreement.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/19/nx-s1-5863544/trump-us-iran-agreement","research"],[3523,"Graham Platner won Maine's June 9, 2026 Democratic Senate primary with about 77.7% of the vote, defeating Gov. Janet Mills (who had suspended her campaign) and David Costello. (He later withdrew from the race on July 8, but the prediction concerned winning the nomination.)","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[5841,"BEA reported real GDP growth of 2.1% annualized in Q1 2026 and 1.5% in Q2 2026 (advance estimate, released July 30, 2026). With H1 tracking under 2%, calendar-2026 growth reaching 6% is arithmetically out of reach on either the annual-average or Q4/Q4 basis.","https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026","research"],[5386,"On July 27-28, 2026, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez granted a preliminary injunction blocking Minnesota's prediction-market ban days before it was to take effect on Aug 1, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act's grant of exclusive CFTC jurisdiction expressly preempts the state law. The CFTC (which sued Minnesota on May 19, 2026) was among the plaintiffs found likely to succeed on the merits; the judge cautioned a final order could be narrower.","https://reason.com/2026/07/28/federal-judge-halts-minnesotas-prediction-market-ban-signaling-other-states-efforts-might-be-illegal-too/","research"],[3521,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, winning roughly 63.8% of the vote, a 28-point margin.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[6613,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff, taking 63.8% of the vote after a late Trump endorsement.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[6609,"Iran interfered with Strait of Hormuz traffic well within the ~six-week window: on June 20, 2026 Iran again declared the strait closed (citing alleged Israeli violations) days after the June 17 memorandum that was supposed to end the blockade, and on July 6, 2026 the LNG tanker Al Rekayat and the supertanker Wedyan were struck by IRGC-attributed projectiles while transiting.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis","research"],[6608,"Pro-Trump Iran hawks did not fall in line by May 26, 2026: GOP senators including Lindsey Graham and Roger Wicker publicly blasted the reported 60-day ceasefire framework on May 24, Graham continued warning of 'troubling aspects,' and Mark Levin was still demanding release of the MOU text weeks later. By June 15, 2026 CNN was reporting prominent GOP hawks saying 'Trump has surrendered to Iran' — criticism intensified rather than muted.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/15/politics/trump-republicans-iran","research"],[5383,"Flows did not normalize by June 23, 2026. Even after the June 17 MOU reopened the Strait, roughly 2,300 vessels were still waiting to transit as of June 21, and late-June/early-July traffic averaged about 25 ships per day versus ~100 a year earlier and 150-200 in peacetime; analysts said clearing the backlog would take weeks.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-renewed-us-iran-conflict-chokes-hormuz.html","research"],[7424,"SpaceX officially priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, implying a valuation of about $1.77 trillion — materially below the $2 trillion Galloway called a stretch.","https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/11/spacex-officially-prices-shares-at-135-in-the-largest-ipo-ever/","research"],[7422,"SpaceX priced its IPO at $135/share and SPCX closed its first trading day, June 12, 2026, at about $161 — up roughly 19% — after touching intraday gains of over 30%, the largest IPO in history.","https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/spacex-ipo-stock-price-rcna349760","research"],[6064,"Reconciliation 2.0 (S.2), providing over $70 billion for ICE and CBP through FY2029, passed the Senate 52-47 on June 5, 2026, passed the House 214-212 on June 9, 2026, and was signed into law by the President on June 10, 2026 - enactment, not merely a floor vote.","https://nlihc.org/resource/house-republicans-pass-and-president-signs-law-reconciliation-20-providing-70-billion-ice","research"],[6063,"DOJ publicly changed the announced $1.776 billion Judgment Fund transfer: Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told Congress on June 1, 2026 that the anti-weaponization fund was scrapped - 'We are not moving forward with the fund, period' - and DOJ subsequently told a federal judge the fund was dead, well inside the July 31, 2026 window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/01/g-s1-125268/justice-department-trump-anti-weaponization-fund-pause","research"],[6062,"The Senate returned June 1 and passed the border-security reconciliation package funding ICE and CBP (over $70 billion) by 52-47 in the early morning of Friday, June 5, 2026, after a roughly 19-hour vote-a-rama - squarely within the week beginning June 1.","https://www.bhfs.com/insight/senate-approves-dhs-funding-house-set-for-final-vote/","research"],[5380,"No US-Iran agreement was announced by May 31, 2026. Talks remained stalled through late May - on May 28 Iran was still demanding unconditional release of frozen assets while the US refused - and the first agreement, the Islamabad Memorandum, was not released until June 17, 2026.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[4950,"Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn 63.8% to about 36% in the May 26, 2026 Texas GOP Senate runoff (over 1.38 million votes cast) — a roughly 28-point rout of the incumbent.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[4595,"On June 26, 2026 Judge Tony Graf found Deputy Utah County Attorney Christopher Ballard in civil contempt for violating the pretrial publicity order by commenting to media on the ballistics report and the strength of the state's case, and ordered the state to pay Robinson's reasonable attorney fees and costs for the contempt motion plus remedial jury measures - a substantive sanction, not merely an admonishment (though the judge declined to strike the death penalty).","https://www.deseret.com/utah/2026/06/26/tyler-robinson-utah-prosecutor-civil-contempt-death-penalty-remains/","research"],[4594,"On June 1, 2026 Judge Tony Graf Jr. denied the defense bid to close the preliminary hearing, ruling it would be open to the media because the defense had not shown a 'realistic likelihood of prejudice to the defendant's right to a fair trial.'","https://www.deseret.com/utah/2026/06/01/tyler-robinson-case-judge-denied-closed-preliminary-hearing-charlie-kirk/","research"],[4593,"Harward never addressed the viral mask footage himself. The explanation came from a Fox News spokesperson on May 22, 2026 (a shadow from van lighting during a remote hit) and from JINSA's communications director; Snopes reported that Harward had not publicly responded and did not reply to its request. He did appear on Fox News' 'The Story' with Trace Gallagher on May 22, but discussed only the Iran negotiations and did not mention the mask clip.","https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/05/22/robert-harward-mask-fox-news/","research"],[4074,"Leaked text of the June 17, 2026 US-Iran MoU explicitly provides that Iran's enriched nuclear material 'will not be removed from the country,' being down-blended inside Iran under IAEA supervision. No verified transfer of Iranian nuclear material to the US or any third country has occurred.","https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-899751","research"],[4073,"The only US-Iran agreement concluded, the June 17, 2026 Islamabad MoU, did not cede Iranian authority over the Strait: it waived tolls 'for 60 days only' and deferred 'future administration of the strait' to Iran, Oman and other Gulf states. Iran subsequently re-closed the waterway on June 22 and the truce collapsed July 8, with the US reinstating its blockade on July 14.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/key-takeaways-14-point-memorandum-understanding-us-iran/story?id=133976791","research"],[4072,"Normal commercial transit was not restored by June 30, 2026. After the June 17 MoU the strait nominally reopened June 18, but Iran declared it shut again on June 22 (transits fell to 12 vessels vs 35 the prior day), and from June 18 to July 5 only 513 vessels transited — about 28 per day versus roughly 100 daily prewar. Five commercial vessels were attacked between June 25 and July 7.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/strait-of-hormuz-what-has-happened-since-the-us-iran-mou-on-june-17","research"],[8059,"In the August 18, 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds won the nomination with 47.8% of the vote with 99% of the expected vote reported, defeating a field that included James Fishback, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner. Fishback publicly called Donalds to congratulate him on winning the Republican nomination. The claim as stated - that Fishback would lose the primary to Donalds - came true, so the verdict is YES.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/florida-governor-results","research"],[6615,"Paxton won the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff with 63.8% to Cornyn's 36.2%, and advances to face Democrat James Talarico in November.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[6415,"As of August 2026 Iran has not relinquished control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran-Oman shipping agreement announced Aug 5-7, 2026 routes commercial vessels in through an Iranian-controlled channel, bars U.S. and Israeli vessels, and Tehran conditions any reopening on the U.S. lifting its naval blockade - i.e. transit resumes on Iran's terms, not Western terms.","https://www.npr.org/2026/08/07/nx-s1-5923962/iran-says-agreement-with-oman-for-strait-of-hormuz-prohibits-u-s-and-israeli-vessels","research"],[5831,"No money has been disbursed and the fund was blocked exactly as the criteria's disqualifying condition describes: a federal judge (Leonie Brinkema) indefinitely enjoined DOJ from creating or operating the $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund, and Acting AG Todd Blanche told Congress on June 2, 2026 the department is 'not moving forward with the fund, period.' Lindell, Tarrio and Jan. 6 claimants have received nothing.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/judge-indefinitely-blocks-trumps-anti-weaponization-fund-rcna349814","research"],[4067,"Iran did not relinquish its asserted control of the Strait: the June 17 MoU only suspended tolls for 60 days, leaving 'future administration' to Iran and Gulf states. Iran declared the waterway shut again on June 22, 2026, its IRGC continued to require Tehran-designated routes and to press transit fees the US rejects, and after the July 8 truce collapse Iran again threatened closure.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/strait-of-hormuz-what-has-happened-since-the-us-iran-mou-on-june-17","research"],[4066,"Both chambers left Washington for the Memorial Day recess in the week after May 21, 2026 without voting on the Reconciliation 2.0 package (Roll Call, May 21: 'Reconciliation bill punted until after Memorial Day recess'). The House held only pro forma sessions and did not resume legislative business until its first vote back on Wednesday, June 3, 2026 (the Iran war powers vote).","https://rollcall.com/2026/06/01/this-week-reconciliation-round-two/","research"],[4060,"The Iran war powers measure that cleared Congress was H.Con.Res.86 — passed by the House 214-208 on June 3, 2026 and adopted by the Senate 50-48 on June 23, 2026. As a concurrent resolution it is not presented to the president, so it never reached Trump's desk and could not be vetoed; a separate Senate war powers resolution was then blocked 49-47 on July 23, 2026.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-house-pass-iran-war-powers-resolution-trump/","research"],[4059,"The House did not pass an Iran war powers resolution on May 21, 2026 - GOP leaders abruptly cancelled the scheduled vote and adjourned the chamber early once it was clear they would lose it. The House ultimately passed the resolution on June 3, 2026 by 215-208, with four Republicans joining all Democrats. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The House did join the Senate in passing the Iran war powers resolution, just 13 days late (June 3 vs the stated May 21), within the ~2-week near-miss window.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/03/politics/house-iran-war-powers-vote","research"],[8058,"Johnny Garcia defeated Maureen Galindo in the Texas 35th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, 2026, winning 63.8% to 36.2% after Galindo drew national backlash for antisemitic remarks.","https://www.tpr.org/government-politics/2026-05-26/garcia-defeats-galindo-in-democratic-runoff-for-redrawn-tx-35-setting-up-high-stakes-general-election-fight","research"],[8056,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Republican US Senate primary runoff on May 26, 2026, winning 63.8% of the vote after Trump's endorsement.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[6412,"Trump ordered fresh strikes on Iranian territory after May 20, 2026: contained strikes on June 25 following an Iranian drone attack on shipping, then a sustained campaign July 7-31 (90 targets July 8, ~140 on July 12) after he declared the ceasefire over.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2026_United_States_strikes_against_Iran","research"],[5830,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff, taking 63.8% to Cornyn's roughly 35% of more than 1.38 million votes, and became the GOP nominee.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[5570,"Rep. Mike Collins won the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff on June 16, 2026, handily defeating former football coach Derek Dooley, and advanced to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/16/nx-s1-5860795/georgia-election-senate-governor-results-trump","research"],[4941,"Derek Dooley lost the June 16, 2026 Georgia GOP Senate runoff to Trump-endorsed Rep. Mike Collins, who became the Republican nominee against Sen. Jon Ossoff.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/georgia-senate-midterms-primary-winner-collins-rcna350028","research"],[7416,"Through the June 15, 2026 deadline, Sanders' and Ocasio-Cortez's data-center activity was legislative and Capitol-based — the AI Data Center Moratorium Act unveiled at a March 25, 2026 Capitol press conference and AOC's House companion introduced in June 2026 — with no reporting of either appearing at a data-center construction site or site protest. Near miss: the substantive call that the two would lead the anti-data-center backlash held, but the venue (Capitol/legislation, not the sites) was wrong.","https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/ocasio-cortez-and-sanders-introduce-ai-data-center-moratorium-act/","research"],[6408,"Rather than a peace deal, the ceasefire/MOU collapsed and the US resumed large-scale strikes on Iran from July 7-31, 2026 — 13 consecutive nights hitting dozens to ~140 targets per night, including 90 targets on July 8 after Trump declared the deal over.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2026_United_States_strikes_against_Iran","research"],[5375,"A negotiated agreement was announced within a month: the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was released June 17, 2026 and signed by Trump and Pezeshkian, formalizing the end of hostilities, lifting the naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, issuing Iranian oil sanctions waivers, and opening a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[4936,"No candidate cleared 50% in Georgia's May 19, 2026 GOP Senate primary — Rep. Mike Collins led with about 41% and Derek Dooley took about 30% of a five-candidate field — sending the race to a June 16 runoff.","https://georgiarecorder.com/2026/05/20/georgia-u-s-senate-race-continues-with-collins-dooley-runoff-on-gop-side/","research"],[4051,"In the May 25-31, 2026 window the only US action was a single May 25 'self-defense' exchange near Bandar Abbas (two IRGC mine-laying boats sunk, four Iranian naval personnel killed, missile launchers struck after Iran fired SAMs at US aircraft). Both governments said the April 8 ceasefire remained in force, coverage stated it did not escalate into full-scale strikes, and a similar low-intensity incident had already occurred on May 7 before the prediction was made.","https://www.airandspaceforces.com/us-strikes-iranian-boats-missile-sites/","research"],[6604,"Mamdani and Council Speaker Julie Menin reached a handshake agreement on a balanced FY2027 budget, and the New York City Council formally adopted the roughly $125.8 billion budget at its Stated Meeting on June 30, 2026 - substantially tracking Mamdani's $124.7 billion May executive budget, including $350 million in added reserves and $175 million in new rental-voucher funding.","https://council.nyc.gov/press/2026/06/30/3166/","research"],[6602,"Massie did lose the May 19, 2026 KY-4 Republican primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, but not narrowly - the margin was nearly 10 percentage points (Massie 47,539 of 105,361 votes, a deficit of about 10,280). Near miss: the core call (Massie loses) was correct and only the 'close' margin qualifier failed.","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/20/ed-gallrein-defeated-incumbent-rep-thomas-massie-in-the-republican-primary-for-kentuckys-4th-congressional-district-on-may-19-2026/","research"],[5372,"Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein defeated incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie in the May 19, 2026 Republican primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, powered by margins in Boone, Kenton, Campbell and Oldham counties.","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/20/ed-gallrein-defeated-incumbent-rep-thomas-massie-in-the-republican-primary-for-kentuckys-4th-congressional-district-on-may-19-2026/","research"],[5371,"Iran publicly rejected the US terms: Iranian state media framed Tehran's May 2026 response as a rejection of a proposal it called a demand for 'surrender,' and Iran insisted on an end to sanctions plus the 'full and unconditional' return of its frozen assets (Ali Bagheri Kani, May 28, 2026), after Trump said 'we're not talking about any easing of sanctions or giving money.'","https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/05/iran-260528-presstv12.htm","research"],[5370,"After the June 17 MOU broke down, Trump chose renewed offensive military action over a negotiated settlement: US strikes hit 80+ targets on July 8 and 90 targets on July 9, 2026, Trump declared the ceasefire 'over,' further strikes followed July 13, and as of late July no settlement had been concluded (Iran said there were no current negotiations on July 27).","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[5368,"A negotiated agreement was in fact concluded: the US and Iran released and signed the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum on June 17, 2026, which reconciled the core disputed issues - on-site down-blending of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision in exchange for immediate Treasury waivers for Iranian crude exports and a scheduled termination of all US and UN sanctions in the final deal.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl","research"],[5367,"The ceasefire in place since April 2026 (extended indefinitely in late April) broke down: Iran struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25 and July 7, the US retaliated with strikes on 80-90 targets on July 8-9, 2026, and Trump declared the ceasefire deal 'over' on July 8. Sustained hostilities continued through July 13 and beyond, well within the July 31 deadline.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[4924,"The U.S. resumed kinetic strikes on Iranian targets after the ceasefire: American forces hit several Iranian military sites in late June (strikes announced June 27, 2026) and launched further waves on July 8-9, 2026 against Iranshahr, Bandar Abbas, Konarak, Chabahar and Bushehr.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/27/nx-s1-5872954/us-strikes-iran","research"],[6405,"No US strikes on Iran occurred by May 26, 2026; the ceasefire agreed April 7 and extended indefinitely in late April held through May. The first renewed US strikes were a 'round of contained strikes' on June 25 after an Iranian drone attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, roughly 30 days past the 10-day window — too late to qualify as a near miss.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[7411,"On May 18, 2026 a federal jury in Oakland ruled against Elon Musk in Musk v. OpenAI/Altman after less than two hours of deliberation, finding his charitable-trust claims fell outside the three-year statute of limitations; Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers immediately adopted the verdict and Musk said he would appeal.","https://www.npr.org/2026/05/18/nx-s1-5822366/musk-altman-openai-jury-verdict-claims-dismissed","research"],[6403,"In the May 19, 2026 KY-04 GOP primary Ed Gallrein defeated Thomas Massie 57,822 to 47,539 — roughly 54.9% to 45.1%, a margin of about 9.8 percentage points, i.e. single digits as the criteria require.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/republican-thomas-massie-who-stood-up-to-trump-defeated-in-kentucky-primary","research"],[5365,"The US did not exit the war via settlement in the months after May 15, 2026: Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8, 2026 and hostilities resumed, with a flurry of US strikes through late July; on July 27 the US only paused new strikes while warning it would resume if no new deal is reached, and Iran said no talks are underway.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/27/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[4921,"Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 6.36% on May 14, 2026 (mid-May reading) and rose to 6.43% (July 2), 6.49% (July 9), 6.55% (July 16) and 6.58% (July 23, 2026) — its highest since August 2025, well above the mid-May level and within the three-month window.","https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-655","research"],[4041,"BLS reported that the all-items CPI rose 4.2 percent over the 12 months ended May 2026 (released June 10, 2026), up from 3.8 percent in April 2026 and the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 - above the 4.0% threshold and after the May 15, 2026 prediction date.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm","research"],[3517,"In June 2026 Trump announced a US-Iran deal granting Iran sanctions relief and access to billions in frozen assets while Iran's enrichment program, centrifuges, and highly enriched uranium stockpile remained fully in place, with dismantlement merely deferred to future talks that then collapsed in July.","https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-and-iran-announce-deal-end-war-state-play","research"],[5561,"No comprehensive US-China accord came out of the May 14-15, 2026 Beijing meeting: outcomes were framework bodies, farm and Boeing purchases and an extension of the existing tariff truce, with no resolution on trade, tech or Iran, and a follow-up summit set for September in the U.S.","https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-did-trump-xi-summit-achieve","research"],[5363,"Wrapping up the summit on May 15, 2026, Trump publicly touted 'fantastic trade deals' with Xi, called it an 'incredible visit' where 'a lot of good has come of it,' and claimed China had committed to buying American oil, soybeans and Boeing jets plus help reopening the Strait of Hormuz.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-wraps-up-visit-with-xi-in-china/","research"],[5362,"The May 14-15, 2026 Beijing summit produced only purchase commitments (≥$17B/yr US farm goods for 2026-28, 200 Boeing aircraft), restored beef/poultry licenses and two new consultative boards; Taiwan and Iran went unmentioned, the tariff truce was not extended and rare earths stayed unresolved, with analysts calling the outcome 'heavy on pageantry but light on policy.'","https://www.china-briefing.com/news/xi-trump-beijing-summit-what-was-agreed/","research"],[5361,"The EIA weekly US on-highway diesel average peaked at $5.640/gal (week of May 4, 2026) and then fell — $5.639 May 11, $5.596 May 18, $5.523 May 25 — never reaching the $5.81 record (set June 19, 2022) by the May 25, 2026 deadline. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Diesel peaked at $5.640 versus the named $5.81 record — 2.9% short, comfortably inside the ~10% numeric near-miss band.","https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_retail_diesel_price","research"],[4919,"Taiwan dominated the summit's final sessions: after the second day of talks Trump said he and Xi discussed the delayed $14 billion Taiwan arms package 'in great detail,' Xi warned the two countries could 'come into conflict' if Taiwan is handled improperly, and Trump declined to commit to the sale on May 15. (Counterpoint: the U.S. official readout did not mention Taiwan.)","https://www.axios.com/2026/05/15/trump-taiwan-arms-sale-xi-summit","research"],[4917,"In the May 16, 2026 Louisiana Senate primary, Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow led with 44.8% (Fleming 28.3%, Cassidy 24.8%); no candidate cleared 50%, sending Letlow and Fleming to a June 27 Republican runoff.","https://www.kplctv.com/2026/05/17/results-polls-close-may-16-election-la/","research"],[4916,"At its June 16-17, 2026 meeting the FOMC voted 12-0 to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting; no cut was made.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm","research"],[4039,"The April 8, 2026 US-Iran ceasefire held through the end of May 2026. The only US action in the window was a brief May 25 'self-defense' strike on two IRGC mine-laying vessels and missile launchers near Bandar Abbas, which both sides explicitly framed as occurring within the ongoing ceasefire (a Navy spokesperson cited 'restraint during the ongoing ceasefire'); there was no escalation to full-scale strikes, and Doha/Islamabad talks instead produced a 60-day memorandum of understanding signed June 17, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[6597,"Trump's approval fell below the mid-May 2026 record low: Silver Bulletin registered net -18.9 (38.5% approve / 58.1% disapprove) on May 13, 2026, then hit a new second-term record low of net -20.6 (38.2% approve / 58.8% disapprove) on July 30, 2026 - lower than any point in his first term, including after January 6.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/07/30/trump-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-a-third-measurement-this-week/","research"],[5560,"The May 14-15, 2026 Beijing summit produced only incremental deliverables (roughly $10-17B/yr agricultural purchases, a ~200-plane Boeing order, a 'board of trade' and 'board of investment,' a one-year extension of the Busan tariff truce) - CSIS analysts called it 'old wine, new bottles' with no comprehensive trade or security accord - and Trump and Xi agreed to meet again in the U.S. in September.","https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-did-trump-xi-summit-achieve","research"],[7410,"New York's pied-a-terre tax passed both chambers May 27, 2026 and was signed by Hochul May 28, 2026, effective July 1, 2026, at the same $5M+ threshold and ~$500M/year, ~10,000-property scope announced with Mamdani in April 2026 — enacted essentially as proposed rather than watered down or blocked.","https://www.daypitney.com/new-york-enacts-new-pied-a-terre-tax-on-certain-high-value-new-york-city-residences","research"],[7408,"Trump Mobile began shipping the $499 T1 phone to pre-order customers the week of May 11-13, 2026 — a day after this claim was made — and by June 2026 buyers and reviewers (Bloomberg, Android Authority, BGR) had received and reviewed retail units, so the phone did reach deposit customers.","https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2026/05/13/trump-mobile-ships-us-assembled-t1-phones-after-months-long-delay/90067186007/","research"],[7407,"Griffin did the opposite: in February 2026 he took a 60% stake in the 350 Park Avenue JV, and by August 5, 2026 Vornado CEO Steven Roth confirmed Citadel remains a 60% partner and 1-million-sq-ft anchor tenant in the $6B+ Manhattan redevelopment, with Griffin saying Citadel will stay 'for decades'; Griffin/Vornado also neared a record $3.3B construction loan for the tower.","https://fortune.com/2026/08/05/ken-griffin-citadel-zohran-mamdani-new-york-tax/","research"],[7406,"At WWDC on June 8, 2026 Apple unveiled a rebuilt Siri/Apple Intelligence powered by a custom 1.2-trillion-parameter Google Gemini model under a multi-year license reported at roughly $1B per year (confirmed by Apple and Google in January 2026), i.e. Apple scrapped its own Siri model stack for a licensed third-party model under a multibillion-dollar deal. The 'tens of billions' figure was overstated but the resolution criteria (licensed third-party model, multibillion-dollar deal) is met.","https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317985/20260608/apple-wwdc-2026-siri-rebuilt-gemini-homeos-previewed-cook-farewell-keynote.htm","research"],[6786,"The May 2026 hantavirus scare was an Andes virus cluster aboard the cruise ship MV Hondius (13 cases, 3 deaths internationally). CDC reported zero US cases while monitoring 41-42 potentially exposed Americans, and formally concluded its hantavirus response on June 24, 2026 after all 42-day monitoring periods ended with no disease detected. No CDC/WHO declaration of sustained transmission or US public health emergency occurred.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/cdc-no-us-hantavirus-cases-people-monitored.html","research"],[6393,"The U.S. resumed large-scale strikes on Iran after the ceasefire: strikes on June 26, 2026 following alleged Iranian ceasefire violations in the Strait of Hormuz, then the July 8 collapse of the ceasefire and MOU followed by nearly two weeks of sustained U.S. bombardment (including a July 15 strike on a tanker bound for Kharg Island) before a pause announced around July 27.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/us-strikes-iran-strait-of-hormuz-ceasefire.html","research"],[4586,"In June 2026 Judge Lewis Liman ruled that Blake Lively was entitled to her attorneys' fees as the prevailing defendant on Baldoni's dismissed defamation claim under California Civil Code Section 47.1 (denying only her punitive-damages request); by July 2, 2026 she had filed seeking $8.04 million in fees and costs from Baldoni and Wayfarer.","https://abcnews.com/GMA/Culture/judge-orders-justin-baldoni-cover-blake-livelys-legal/story?id=133824790","research"],[4032,"'Operation Sledgehammer' was only a name the Pentagon was reported in mid-May 2026 to be considering as a rename of the Iran campaign if the ceasefire collapsed. No such operation was publicly launched by 30 June 2026, and the July 2026 resumption consisted of air and naval strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, not a named ground invasion of Iran.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-considering-re-naming-iran-war-sledgehammer-ceasefire-collaps-rcna344630","research"],[4027,"Days after the ~$14.65M repainting of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool floor 'American flag blue' was completed, satellite analysis showed more algae than any recorded June in at least five years; scientists said the dark blue lining warms the water and encourages algae, and the paint has been peeling, requiring hydrogen-peroxide and ozone 'nanobubble' treatments.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/06/18/algae-detected-reflecting-pool-higher-levels-than-any-june-past-5-years/","research"],[8050,"Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey released July 17, 2026; Elliott Page was cast as and credited with the role of Sinon (used to trick the Trojans about the Trojan Horse), not Achilles.","https://www.slashfilm.com/2221861/elliot-page-the-odyssey-role-explained/","research"],[5559,"The 2026 Andes-virus hantavirus cluster tied to the MV Hondius produced 13 cases and 3 deaths worldwide and zero U.S. cases (CDC's David Fitter, May 13 briefing); CDC closed its response June 24 and WHO declared the outbreak over July 2, 2026, with no U.S. emergency, mask mandate or lockdown imposed.","https://www.cdc.gov/han/php/notices/han00528.html","research"],[3513,"US forces conducted new kinetic strikes on Iranian targets well after May 11, 2026: on July 13-17, 2026 the US resumed waves of airstrikes on Iranian positions along the Strait of Hormuz, including Greater Tunb Island, and disabled a tanker headed for Kharg Island.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[7401,"The verdict was as lopsided as described: on May 18, 2026 the advisory jury deliberated less than two hours before rejecting every claim against OpenAI, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, and Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers immediately adopted it. Musk called it a 'calendar technicality' and vowed a 9th Circuit appeal.","https://www.npr.org/2026/05/18/nx-s1-5822366/musk-altman-openai-jury-verdict-claims-dismissed","research"],[6380,"No signed U.S.-Iran agreement ending the war was concluded by May 31, 2026; negotiators only reached a tentative deal awaiting Trump's approval on May 28, and the memorandum of understanding was not signed by Trump and Pezeshkian until June 19, 2026.","https://www.axios.com/2026/05/28/iran-peace-deal-trump-approval","research"],[5819,"WHO's Disease Outbreak News (as of 2026-05-27) reports the M/V Hondius Andes hantavirus cluster capped at 13 cases and 3 deaths, with human-to-human transmission limited to the ship's close quarters and no sustained community spread among the 600+ traced contacts across 32 countries. WHO assessed global risk as LOW and never escalated or declared an emergency; three months on, no further expansion has been reported.","https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON604","research"],[5345,"The June 17, 2026 US-Iran (Islamabad) MoU and the reported draft final deal call for Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium to be down-blended inside Iran under IAEA supervision, not transferred to US custody; Khamenei separately barred any shipment of enriched material abroad, and no transfer occurred before the ceasefire collapsed on July 8, 2026.","https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260617-diluting-uranium-oil-sales-what-draft-us-iran-deal","research"],[4903,"No long-form US-Iran agreement was signed in the 30 days after the memorandum track: the 14-point MOU itself was only signed June 17, 2026 and merely opened 60 days of nuclear talks, and by July 7 Trump declared the truce over with U.S. strikes on Iran resuming July 13-21, 2026. No comprehensive deal exists as of July 30, 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/13/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[4009,"The actual June 14, 2026 UFC Freedom 250 fight was closed to the general public, with official reporting consistently citing ~4,300 credentialed South Lawn attendees (mostly military); no administration claim was found that conflated general tourists or the separately and honestly labeled two-day public 'Fan Fest' crowd (130,000+) with fight attendance -- the inflation controversy that did occur concerned broadcast viewership hype (e.g. Joe Rogan's 150M claim), not in-person tourist counts.","https://www.nbcnews.com/sports/ufc/ufc-freedom-250-inside-trump-birthday-event-white-house-rcna350049","research"],[4008,"Iran’s principal Kharg Island oil terminal resumed loading on August 12 after a 25-day blockade-related shutdown; the report characterized the blockade’s effect on Iran’s main oil-export artery as severe disruption.","https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/08/16/iran-reroutes-oil-flow-as-loading-resumes-at-kharg-island-terminal/","research"],[8042,"The 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary was held on August 18, 2026. Byron Donalds won the nomination with 47.8% of the vote. James Fishback finished well down the field at approximately 4% of the vote, behind Donalds (47.8%), Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (about 18%) and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (about 8%). Fishback's share was therefore below the 10.0% threshold stated in the claim, so the claim as stated came true.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/florida-governor-results","research"],[6378,"Israeli ground forces crossed the Litani River in an expanded offensive announced May 29, 2026, with Netanyahu stating troops had advanced to positions north of the Litani and the IDF declaring the area north of the river a combat zone and destroying its bridges.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_crossing_of_the_Litani_River","research"],[6377,"Israel did not halt its Lebanon campaign after May 5, 2026 -- it expanded it, with ground forces crossing the Litani River on May 29, 2026 and Netanyahu confirming advances north of the river; as of July 20, 2026 Israel still held the occupied buffer zone and said it would not withdraw.","https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-05-29/israeli-forces-cross-key-lebanon-river-in-expanded-ground-offensive","research"],[6051,"Platner won the June 9, 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary 77.7%-16.7% over Gov. Janet Mills and was certified as the party's nominee, setting up the race against Susan Collins before his July 8, 2026 withdrawal.","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[7398,"Apple chose Google, not Anthropic. Apple's ~$1B/year deal for a custom 1.2-trillion-parameter Gemini model to power Siri and Apple Intelligence was announced Jan 12, 2026 and shipped at WWDC on June 8, 2026; reporting says Apple walked away from a Claude-based Siri after Anthropic sought several billion dollars. Claude is only one user-selectable option in the iOS 27 third-party extensions marketplace, not the outside model Apple runs its consumer AI on.","https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/12/googles-gemini-to-power-apples-ai-features-like-siri/","research"],[7395,"eBay's board rejected GameStop's $55.5B offer on May 12, 2026, calling it 'neither credible nor attractive' and citing funding uncertainty (GameStop's ~$10.3B market cap, $20B TD Securities commitment and ~$9B cash against eBay's ~$48B value). GameStop has since raised its eBay stake to ~10% but no acquisition has been completed; the resolution criteria are met by the rejection.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/ebay-rejects-gamestops-takeover-ryan-cohen.html","research"],[4000,"Bondi sat for a nearly four-hour closed-door transcribed interview with the House Oversight Committee on May 29, 2026 about the Epstein files; she agreed to a transcribed interview rather than the sworn deposition the committee had subpoenaed, and the committee said it would release a transcript but no video.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pam-bondi-epstein-files-house-oversight-committee/","research"],[3508,"The war with Iran did restart: after the April-May ceasefire and the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum, Iran struck commercial vessels and Trump declared 'the ceasefire is over' on July 8, 2026, with US-Iran strikes resuming until a pause in late July.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/09/world/live-news/iran-war-trump","research"],[6587,"CPI inflation did come down within two months of the claim: year-over-year CPI was 3.8% in April 2026, rose to 4.2% in May, then fell to 3.5% in June 2026 (headline CPI -0.4% for the month, the first pullback in the annual rate since January), below the April reading and beating the 3.8% consensus. That makes the 'stays at or above April' test already unmeetable.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-3-5-percent-over-the-year-ended-june-2026.htm","research"],[4582,"Graham Platner won Maine's Democratic US Senate primary on June 9, 2026 with 77.7% of the vote to Janet Mills' 16.7% and David Costello's 5.6%, becoming the nominee against Susan Collins (he later withdrew from the race on July 8, 2026, after securing the nomination).","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[4579,"No agreement ending the US-Iran conflict was reached or announced on May 4, 2026. The US carried out fresh strikes on Iran on May 7, 2026, and the first tentative deal (a 60-day ceasefire extension and new nuclear talks) only emerged on May 28-29, 2026, followed by the Islamabad Memorandum on June 17, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[3309,"Airfares rose sharply after Spirit's May 2, 2026 shutdown: fares on former Spirit routes were up ~14% within days, and BLS CPI data released July 14, 2026 showed airline ticket prices up 26.5% year-over-year in June, with Spirit's exit cited as removing downward pricing pressure (alongside war-driven fuel costs).","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/06/business/higher-airfares-spirit","research"],[4898,"Sean Spicer's 'Trump 2.0: The Revolution That Will Permanently Transform America' (Skyhorse, published April 28, 2026) reached a New York Times bestseller list within roughly a week of release; Spicer announced the listing in early May 2026, well before the June 30, 2026 deadline.","https://x.com/seanspicer/status/2052447362245689465","research"],[7392,"The Devil Wears Prada 2 opened May 1, 2026 to $233.6M worldwide in its opening weekend ($77.0M domestic + $156.6M international), the second-biggest global debut of 2026 — above the ~$200M figure named, and the seven-day global total ran higher still. Note the measure matters: on the domestic-only basis often used in tracking, the opening was $77M, well short of $200M.","https://variety.com/2026/film/box-office/devil-wears-prada-2-box-office-opening-weekend-michael-1236732410/","research"],[7391,"Musk lost. On May 18, 2026 a federal jury in Oakland found for OpenAI, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman on all claims (holding Musk's charitable-trust claims fell outside the three-year statute of limitations), and Judge Gonzalez Rogers adopted the verdict. Musk did not drop the case and OpenAI did not settle.","https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/openai-elon-musk-case-verdict-rcna345655","research"],[6049,"Graham Platner won Maine's Democratic U.S. Senate primary on June 9, 2026 with 77.7% to Janet Mills' 16.7% and David Costello's 5.6%, becoming the nominee against Sen. Susan Collins. (He later withdrew from the general election on July 8, 2026, but the primary criterion is met.)","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[5808,"In the weeks immediately following 2026-05-01 the AAA national average rose above the ~$4.34 baseline, hitting $4.55 on May 7 (up 25 cents for a second straight week) and peaking at $4.56 on May 21 — Memorial Day weekend prices were four-year highs. (Prices later fell back to $3.91 by June 25 after the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and were $4.09 on July 30, but the near-term rise the claim called for did occur.)","https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-rises-25-cents-for-second-straight-week/","research"],[5337,"No war-ending agreement was signed by June 30, 2026. The June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum was an explicitly interim 14-point ceasefire framework opening a 60-day negotiating window, not a formal peace treaty ending hostilities, and it collapsed by July 8 when Trump declared the ceasefire over.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3989,"Iran never capitulated or accepted Trump's terms: it refused to yield during the April-June blockade, re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum was a mutually negotiated 14-point ceasefire (US sanctions waivers, released frozen assets, a $300B reconstruction fund, no new Iranian nuclear concessions) that Tehran called a 'victory for the country and defeat for the US and Israel' and then suspended on July 18, 2026 after Trump declared it over.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[3504,"New US military operations against Iran did begin after May 1, 2026: US forces struck Iranian military facilities on May 7 and hit missile launch sites and mine-laying boats near Bandar Abbas on May 25, and full-scale fighting resumed July 8 when Trump declared the ceasefire over.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5807,"After the late-April 2026 level (EIA 4/27 = $4.123; AAA ~$4.34), prices kept climbing to an EIA weekly peak of $4.500 on 5/11/2026 (AAA peaked at $4.56 on Memorial Day weekend) before falling back to $3.777 by 7/06/2026 — i.e., prices rose well above the late-April level before declining.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w","research"],[5806,"BEA's advance estimate (released July 30, 2026) put real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026 (April-June, the quarter containing the spring gas-price spike), down from 2.1% in Q1 2026.","https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026","research"],[5332,"Japan Airlines, ANA, Korean Air and other major Asian carriers preserved their North America and Europe routes through the 2026 fuel crisis; JAL published new international fuel surcharge zones covering July-August 2026 travel (up to ~56,000 yen per segment on US/Europe routes), which requires the flights to still be operating.","https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/eu56cr518ni6/","research"],[5331,"The AAA national average never reached $5.00; it topped out around $4.56 on May 21, 2026, then fell, with June 2026 averaging $4.05 and the average around $4.12 by late June. It was still only $4.09 on July 30, 2026. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Gas peaked at $4.56 inside the window, 8.8% short of the named $5.00 figure — within the ~10% numeric near-miss band, with the direction of the call right.","https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/06/","research"],[5330,"AAA reported the national average for regular gasoline at $4.55/gallon on May 7, 2026 (up 25 cents for a second straight week), peaking near $4.56 on May 21 -- above the ~$4.50 threshold well before the end of May.","https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/05/national-average-rises-25-cents-for-second-straight-week/","research"],[4893,"The U.S. conducted offensive strikes on Iran on May 7, 2026, and again from early July 2026 onward (CENTCOM ran 11 consecutive nights of strikes ending July 21, 2026) after Trump declared the truce over on July 7 — well beyond maintaining a naval blockade and after the April 30, 2026 cutoff.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[3984,"Trump's early-May deadline for Iranian oil infrastructure to 'explode' from blockade-driven over-pressurization passed with no such event; the first US naval blockade ran April 13 - June 18, 2026 and ended with no reported explosion of Iranian pipelines or storage, and energy analysts and outlets (Washington Post 2026-04-30, CNN 2026-05-27, Drop Site) reported the infrastructure was not exploding as Trump predicted.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_naval_blockade_of_Iran","research"],[3983,"The AAA national average rose well above the ~$4.30 late-April level in the following weeks, hitting $4.56 on Memorial Day (2026-05-21) and a 2026 record $4.564 on 2026-05-23; May 2026 averaged $4.48/gallon, the third-highest month on record.","https://gasprices.aaa.com/memorial-day-weekend-gas-prices-reach-four-year-highs/","research"],[3306,"The Florida Legislature passed the map April 29, 2026, but DeSantis did not sign it on April 30; he signed HB 1D into law on Monday, May 4, 2026, per Florida Phoenix. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The predicted event occurred exactly as called (DeSantis signed HB 1D) only four days past the named date of April 30, well inside the narrow-window allowance.","https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/05/04/desantis-signs-legislation-making-new-congressional-map-official/","research"],[6764,"Right-wing personalities did post partner-tagged endorsements around the film's release: Riley Gaines posted an #AnimalFarmPartner tweet on April 28, 2026 calling the film 'incredibly well done,' and Emily Saves America posted with the same #AnimalFarmPartner disclosure on April 30, 2026 (after this claim was made). Coverage described Angel Studios enlisting paid conservative influencers, prompting a backlash from Pool, Peachy Keenan and others.","https://thatparkplace.com/angel-studios-rips-critics-of-animal-farm-and-puts-conservative-partners-in-hot-water/","research"],[6763,"By mid-May 2026 China had not imposed emergency fuel distribution or rationing. Reporting on the Iran-war fuel crisis lists Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Cambodia, Slovenia, Bangladesh and Indonesia as rationing countries and explicitly places China in the 'emergency energy measures but not fuel rationing' category — export bans, a release of commercial crude reserves and temporary retail price controls (first since 2013, begun in late March, before this claim), with stockpiles absorbing the ~3.6 mb/d import drop.","https://www.newsweek.com/list-of-countries-rationing-fuel-as-gas-prices-soar-11771681","research"],[6368,"After the April 29, 2026 claim, benchmark crude never approached $140: Brent was about $115 on May 4, $110 on May 20, $100 on May 26, averaged $85 in June and traded in the high-$70s in July (Brent settled at $78.19 during the July escalation). Dated Brent's $141.37 spike was on April 2, before the prediction, and prices fell steadily afterward, so this is directionally wrong rather than a near miss.","https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/","research"],[6364,"Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic Senate primary on June 9, 2026 with 77.7% of the vote to Janet Mills' 16.7% and David Costello's 5.6%, becoming the nominee against Sen. Susan Collins (he later withdrew from the general election on July 8, after the primary was settled).","https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/06/09/politics/elections/maine-senate-democratic-primary-results-graham-platner/","research"],[6048,"Federal welfare-fraud enforcement did move to California: the July 3, 2026 federal raid on a Skid Row store in Los Angeles produced a federal SNAP-fraud arrest (Jesse Cervantes-Gomez) prosecuted by U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli's office, plus USDA violation notices to 33 California SNAP retailers, six accused of exchanging benefits for cash.","https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/federal-agents-bust-alleged-snap-fraud-ring-at-la-store-usda-issues-dozens-of-violations-california-officials-brooke-rollins-oz","research"],[7388,"There was no settlement. Musk v. OpenAI/Altman went through a full three-week jury trial in Oakland and the advisory jury returned a verdict on May 18, 2026 rejecting all claims, which Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers adopted. Musk said he would appeal to the 9th Circuit.","https://www.npr.org/2026/05/18/nx-s1-5822366/musk-altman-openai-jury-verdict-claims-dismissed","research"],[6361,"A US-Iran agreement ending the war was concluded before June 30, 2026: Trump and Pezeshkian signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 whose first paragraph provided for 'permanent termination of military operations,' ended the naval blockade and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Near miss because the substantive call held almost immediately: Iran violated the MoU on June 25 and the deal collapsed July 8-9 with Trump declaring it 'over' and the US striking ~90 targets, so the war was indeed far from over.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[5329,"Open US-Iran hostilities resumed after the April 2026 ceasefire/limbo: Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' on July 8, 2026, the US resumed strikes (including a wave hitting roughly 90 targets and mid-July strikes near the Strait of Hormuz), and Iran attacked tankers and US Gulf allies including Bahrain and Kuwait.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5328,"California's statewide average for regular gasoline hit $6.00-$6.01 per gallon by April 30, 2026 -- within a week of the April 28 claim and well inside the May 6 deadline -- and kept climbing to about $6.15 by mid-May.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/california-gas-price-iran-war-oil.html","research"],[4887,"In the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff, Ken Paxton defeated four-term incumbent John Cornyn with about 63.8% of roughly 1.38 million votes (a ~28-point margin) and won the nomination; he faces Democrat James Talarico in November.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[4885,"The Florida House and Senate passed the DeSantis-proposed congressional map on April 29, 2026 in special session, creating a likely 24-4 Republican split of the state's 28 seats, and DeSantis signed it into law on May 4, 2026 - inside the May 15 window.","https://rollcall.com/2026/05/04/desantis-signs-new-republican-favored-congressional-map-into-law/","research"],[4882,"A federal grand jury in Washington, D.C. returned a four-count indictment against Cole Tomas Allen on May 5, 2026, superseding the three charges from his April arraignment by adding assaulting a federal officer with a deadly weapon (a Secret Service officer shot in the vest on April 25). Allen pleaded not guilty to all counts.","https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cole-allen-charged-trump-assassination-plot-indicted-new-count-shootin-rcna343762","research"],[6576,"Trump's approval did not recover after the April 25, 2026 incident: Silver Bulletin hit a second-term record low net -18.9 (38.5% approve / 58.1% disapprove) on May 13, slid to roughly 38% by late May, and June polls ran lower still (Reuters/Ipsos 35% on June 8; Marist recording his lowest overall second-term approval). No durable rise above the late-April level occurred in the two months after the incident.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/05/14/trumps-approval-rating-hits-new-second-term-low/","research"],[4881,"The June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum does end the naval blockade (within 30 days) in exchange for Iran allowing toll-free commercial transit for 60 days, but it does not match the deal Bannon ruled out: nuclear/enrichment talks are deferred by a maximum of 60 days, not six months to a year, and US force withdrawal from Iran's periphery happens only within 30 days after a final comprehensive deal.","https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/06/17/read-the-14-point-memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-united-states-and-iran/","research"],[4880,"Trump rejected the late-April Iranian proposal (conveyed via Pakistan by FM Araghchi) that would have reopened the Strait and ended the war while setting the nuclear file aside; he scrapped the planned Witkoff/Kushner trip to Islamabad and said the terms were unacceptable, with Reuters reporting the rejection in early May 2026.","https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605027180","research"],[4575,"Through May 31, 2026 ABC/Disney never publicly addressed the 'expectant widow' remark and took no disciplinary or programming action: new Disney CEO Josh D'Amaro issued no public comment on the Trump-Kimmel feud, and Disney's only public statement was a procedural acknowledgment of the FCC's April 28 order for accelerated ABC station license renewals, not a statement about Kimmel's remark. Kimmel himself said Disney's only guidance to him was to 'respond and move on.'","https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/04/28/fcc-launches-review-of-8-abc-stations-licenses-after-kimmels-melania-trump-joke/","research"],[4574,"Axios described it as Trump's '24-hour truce with the media' (April 27, 2026), and by April 30, 2026 Trump was again attacking the press by name on Truth Social: 'When is ABC Fake News Network firing seriously unfunny Jimmy Kimmel...' — inside the roughly one-week window.","https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/truth-social-posts-april-30-2026","research"],[4879,"US forces ran announced operations to reopen the Strait: Trump said on April 25, 2026 the Navy was hunting Iranian mines in the strait, and Operation Project Freedom (roughly May 4-6, 2026) cleared 10-100 mines and escorted at least two US-flagged cargo vessels out of the Gulf, alongside the ongoing air campaign begun March 19, 2026.","https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/05/06/us-clears-strait-of-hormuz-mines-for-shipping-escorts/","research"],[7387,"SpaceX priced its record $75B IPO at $135/share on June 11, 2026; shares opened at $150 on June 12 and closed the first session at $160.95, up 19%, then ran to an intraday peak of $225.64 on June 16.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html","research"],[7385,"The deal cannot close inside the 2026 window: facing a suit from a coalition of 12 state attorneys general, Paramount Skydance agreed in late July 2026 to delay the closing of the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition until June 2027 (reported 2026-08-04), roughly six months past the claim's 2026-12-31 deadline and with the outcome of a full antitrust trial still unsettled.","https://fortune.com/2026/08/04/will-paramount-warner-brothers-merger-close-time-ellison/","research"],[4877,"The Pakistan-mediated track did produce a war-ending agreement: on June 17, 2026 Trump and President Pezeshkian signed the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, declaring permanent termination of military operations, ending the US naval blockade within 30 days, and reopening the Strait to commercial shipping toll-free for 60 days. | RE-ADJUDICATED YES (ceasefire-rule review 2026-08-08): Rule 2: graded NO only because the June 17 Islamabad MOU was treated as a successful peace deal, but that ceasefire collapsed July 8 and the war is ongoing, so the Pakistan track did not produce peace - claim came true.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl","research"],[3967,"On 2026-05-08 the Supreme Court of Virginia struck down the referendum-approved redistricting amendment in a 46-page opinion, holding the referral process violated constitutional requirements and rendering the vote 'null and void,' and ordered the state to use the 2022/2024 congressional map.","https://www.npr.org/2026/05/08/nx-s1-5805193/redistricting-virginia-trump-midterms","research"],[6359,"BLS reported CPI-U up 4.2% year over year in May 2026 (largest 12-month increase since April 2023), exceeding the April 2026 reading of 3.8%; energy prices were up 23.5% year over year in May.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm","research"],[6358,"US military operations against Iran resumed repeatedly after the April 2026 ceasefire was extended indefinitely: US strikes on Iran on May 7, retaliatory strikes after Iran's June 25 drone attack on shipping, and a full collapse on July 8-9 when Trump declared the deal 'over' and the US struck ~80-90 targets across Iran and reimposed the naval blockade.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[5319,"After Trump's April 23, 2026 'shoot and kill' order, Iran escalated rather than absorbing it: on May 4 a tanker was hit by projectiles in the strait and Iran claimed missile fire at a US warship, and on May 7 Iranian forces attacked three US Navy destroyers (USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, USS Mason) with missiles, drones and small boats, drawing US strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island - all well before 2026-05-31.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[3956,"The opposite happened: on May 8, 2026 the Supreme Court of Virginia ruled 4-3 to void the April 21 redistricting referendum, holding the early-voting defect 'incurably taints' the vote, and the US Supreme Court rejected Democrats' emergency appeal, leaving the pre-existing congressional maps in place.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/08/politics/virginia-supreme-court-redistricting","research"],[3495,"The House passed the $1.15 trillion FY2027 defense authorization (the vehicle for Trump's record $1.5T defense budget request) 216-212 on July 22, 2026, with Democrats overwhelmingly voting no (only 6 Democrats voted yes); Senate Democrats also blocked the bill in protest over the Iran war.","https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2026-07-22/ndaa-bill-passed-in-house-22339891.html","research"],[6571,"Gabbard announced her departure as Director of National Intelligence on May 22, 2026, publicly citing her husband's bone cancer, but Reuters reported she 'was pushed out by the White House,' which had been unhappy with her non-interventionist stance on the Iran war and had excluded her from Iran/Venezuela/Cuba deliberations; her exit date was moved up from June 30 after a conversation with Trump, and Aaron Lukas became acting DNI. Criteria allow 'fired from or forced out.'","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/22/politics/tulsi-gabbard-resigns","research"],[6570,"Iran has not capitulated to blockade pressure: the June 17, 2026 MOU had the US lift the naval blockade and grant a broad oil-sanctions waiver in exchange only for Iranian 'best efforts' on safe passage, and in the August 2026 Oman-brokered talks Iran still demands the blockade be lifted first plus a role in managing transit, with analysts assessing Tehran holds the leverage and Washington negotiating from a position of wanting a deal.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/6/hormuz-deal-close-whats-the-latest-on-each-sides-positions","research"],[6569,"The only US-Iran agreement signed since the claim, the June 17, 2026 Islamabad MOU, does not require Iran to ship nuclear material out of the country; it provides that stockpiled enriched material be resolved by a mutually agreed mechanism 'with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA.'","https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum_of_Understanding_between_the_United_States_of_America_and_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran","research"],[6353,"The April 21, 2026 indefinite ceasefire did not end the war: the US blockade remained, CENTCOM struck Iranian military facilities on May 7, 2026, and hostilities continued through June before Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5547,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff with 63.8% of roughly 1.38 million votes.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[4875,"In the May 5, 2026 Indiana primaries the targeted senators were wiped out, not saved: Trump-backed challengers unseated six incumbents (Travis Holdman, Jim Buck, Linda Rogers, Dan Dernulc, Rick Niemeyer, Greg Walker), each winning at least 56%, and a Trump-backed candidate also took the seventh (open) seat. Far fewer than five of the seven survived.","https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-05-05/trump-backed-challengers-defeat-indiana-senators-who-blocked-redistricting-push","research"],[4871,"In June 2026 the US Attorney's office for the Middle District of Alabama obtained a superseding indictment against the SPLC (arraignment held June 16, 2026), alleging $4.1 million in tax-exempt funds paid to informants. It added new factual allegations but no new counts and no new individual defendants; the criteria expressly count a superseding indictment.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/southern-poverty-law-center-superseding-indictment/","research"],[3952,"A Fox News poll of 1,002 registered voters conducted May 15-18, 2026 found just 29% approved of Trump's handling of the economy versus 71% disapproving (inflation was worse at 24%/76%), clearing the 29%-or-lower bar within weeks of the April 22 prediction.","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-economic-pain-deepens-disapproval-trump-hits-new-high","research"],[7381,"The late-April Pakistan round produced nothing: Vance's Islamabad trip was scrapped and Trump called off the Witkoff/Kushner trip on 2026-04-25 after Iranian officials left Pakistan and refused terms, with no deal, framework or ceasefire extension announced from that round. The later tentative ceasefire-extension deal came 2026-05-29 through a separate track with no reported link to the Pakistan talks.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/25/iran-us-pakistan-ceasefire-talks/","research"],[6348,"In the August 4, 2026 Michigan Democratic US Senate primary, Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens by roughly 48.5% to 47.5%; El-Sayed advances to face Republican Mike Rogers.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/politics/live-news/primary-election-michigan-virginia","research"],[6345,"US military operations against Iran continued past June 2026 with no negotiated exit - Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' on July 8, 2026, the US relaunched strikes in mid-July, and Iran struck US forces on July 29, 2026.","https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5971315-trump-resumes-hostilities-tehran/","research"],[6344,"No US-Iran deal was signed before May 31, 2026, and active hostilities resumed: Iranian forces attacked US destroyers transiting the Gulf and CENTCOM struck Iranian military sites on May 7, 2026, with the naval blockade still in place.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[5546,"Virginia's April 21, 2026 referendum approved the congressional-redistricting constitutional amendment 50.7% Yes to 49.3% No out of about 2.5 million ballots (the amendment was later struck down by the Supreme Court of Virginia on May 8, but the referendum itself passed).","https://virginiamercury.com/2026/04/21/virginia-voters-back-redistricting-amendment-after-months-of-legal-and-political-battles/","research"],[5315,"No US-Iran negotiating round convened during April 20-26, 2026. The Islamabad Talks had already ended in failure April 11-12; Iran rebuffed efforts to restart, the White House put VP Vance's second Islamabad trip on hold, and on April 25 Trump announced cancellation of the envoy trip for further talks. The next sessions were the June 21 and June 28 technical talks in Switzerland.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations","research"],[5314,"Full-scale war did not resume by mid-May 2026: after Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, the May 4-7 exchanges (Iranian missile/drone/small-boat attacks on three US destroyers, US strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island) were tactical clashes that Trump called a 'love tap' while insisting the ceasefire remained in effect; the ceasefire formally held and no sustained bombing campaign began before 2026-05-15.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[4870,"Iran declined to attend, and no US-Iran negotiating session convened in Islamabad on or before April 22, 2026. Trump said on April 19 the US delegation would travel Monday but Iran had declined; IRNA confirmed Iran's rejection of the second round, and Wikipedia's account records that as of April 21 Iran had sent no delegation to Pakistan.","https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260419-trump-says-us-delegation-will-travel-to-islamabad-on-monday-iran-declines-talks","research"],[4568,"The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee, as Federal Reserve chair on May 13, 2026 by a 54-45 vote, succeeding Jerome Powell — well inside the June 30, 2026 window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/05/13/nx-s1-5816235/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell","research"],[3948,"Rather than concluding a deal, Trump extended the Iran ceasefire on April 21, 2026 (open-ended, 'until such time as their proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded') while keeping the blockade, and the truce was still running with no agreement through the 2026-05-05 window - on May 5 Trump only claimed 'Great Progress toward a Complete and Final Agreement,' then rejected Iran's proposal on May 10 as 'TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.' The first actual agreement came six weeks later, on June 17.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/trump-announces-extending-iran-ceasefire-but-says-blockade-remains","research"],[6563,"After the April 20 prediction the US conducted further large-scale strikes on Iran (the May 7, 2026 strikes, and then from July 8, 2026 more than 100 air attacks including a 90-target round, sustained for 13 consecutive nights and expanding to civilian infrastructure nationwide), all before any deal ended the conflict, which remains unresolved as of August 8, 2026.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/mapping-the-latest-us-strikes-across-iran","research"],[6562,"The US and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, 2026, which ended the naval blockade and provided for reopening the Strait of Hormuz with no transit charge for 60 days; tanker traffic did resume, with VLCC+ crossings rising from under two per day before the MOU to just over seven per day after it. The later July breakdown does not undo the agreement having been reached and the strait having reopened.","https://www.vortexa.com/insights/hormuz-after-the-mou","research"],[6041,"Kharg Island onshore storage (31m bbl) filled around April 26, 2026, but no shut-ins had occurred by the ~April 27 deadline: Al Jazeera's April 29, 2026 review found no reported well shut-ins, with Kpler's Muyu Xu expecting 'any production reduction to be gradual over the coming week with a higher likelihood of acceleration into May.' Iranian officials only acknowledged unquantified output 'dialing back' in Fortune's May 2 report, and bne IntelliNews later reported the shut-in deadline passed without the predicted collapse. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The mechanism landed on schedule (Kharg storage topped out ~April 26) and Iranian officials acknowledged dialing back output by May 2 with Kharg loadings halting May 6 - roughly one week past the ~April 27 deadline.","https://fortune.com/2026/05/02/iran-oil-production-cuts-crude-storage-limits-tank-tops-us-naval-blockade-hormuz/","research"],[5795,"No Trump healthcare replacement law was signed by June 30, 2026. The January 2026 'Great Healthcare Plan' was an outline in a White House fact sheet calling on Congress to enact it; the corresponding bill (H.R.8324) was not enacted, and as of August 2026 lawmakers were still negotiating an ACA subsidy extension.","https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-calls-on-congress-to-enact-the-great-healthcare-plan/","research"],[5544,"In Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365), decided June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against the administration, holding that children born in the U.S. to parents unlawfully or temporarily present are 'subject to the jurisdiction' of the United States and are citizens at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[5309,"On June 17, 2026 Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (halt to military operations, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, phased sanctions/blockade relief), with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei endorsing it 'despite misgivings' - i.e. Iran did sign on to a US multi-point 'concept of a deal' ceasefire framework, though it collapsed by July 8.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[4863,"No US-Iran agreement existed as of May 31, 2026: Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal on May 11, and on June 1 Iran announced it had stopped negotiating with Washington and would 'completely' close the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamabad Memorandum ending the war was not signed until June 17, 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html","research"],[4862,"Iran publicly declined to send negotiators to the second round in Islamabad (IRNA, April 19-20, 2026), Araghchi left Pakistan, and on April 25 Trump cancelled the Witkoff/Kushner trip because 'no meeting' was planned. No Iranian delegation attended a second round in Islamabad through April 30, 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/25/iran-says-no-meeting-with-us-negotiators-planned-in-pakistan.html","research"],[6340,"Formally extended within the May 31 window (April 23, May 15, June 1) so the claim as stated fails — but near miss: Israeli strikes on Lebanon continued past the June MOU and June 26 framework, so the ceasefire held largely on paper. Flagged for human review.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_ceasefire","research"],[6338,"On May 7, 2026 - within the window - US Central Command struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command-and-control facilities and ISR outposts in southern Iran and Tehran after Iranian forces attacked US destroyers, the first new US strikes after the April ceasefire announcement.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[7375,"Within days of United CEO Scott Kirby floating the combination to lawmakers in April 2026, American Airlines publicly stated it 'is not engaged with or interested in any discussions regarding a merger with United Airlines' and Trump said 'I don't like it' (reported 2026-04-22); the merger talk collapsed with no deal and none has been revived through August 2026.","https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-united-airline-merger-talk-fades-another-deal-coming/","research"],[6750,"Hennepin County charged ICE officer Gregory Donnell Morgan Jr. with two counts of second-degree assault over the February 5, 2026 highway gun-pointing incident and issued a nationwide warrant; Morgan surrendered, was returned to Minnesota, made his first court appearance on May 22, 2026, and posted $100,000 bond rather than being shielded from state prosecution.","https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/05/22/ice-agent-gregory-morgan-jr-to-appear-in-minnesota-court-after-road-rage-incident","research"],[6336,"The war was not concluded by a deal: CENTCOM conducted strikes on Iranian military facilities in southern Iran and Tehran on May 7, 2026, the US naval blockade stayed in force, and only a 60-day negotiating framework (Islamabad Memorandum, June 17) - not a peace settlement - was signed before June 30.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_May_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran","research"],[6333,"Israeli strikes continued in southern Lebanon throughout the 10-day truce that began April 16, 2026: six killed April 25 in the Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil districts and fourteen killed April 26 in southern Lebanon, with President Aoun condemning Israel's continuing violations.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_ceasefire","research"],[5542,"In the June 2, 2026 California top-two gubernatorial primary the two advancing candidates were Steve Hilton (R) and Xavier Becerra (D); Katie Porter conceded. Two Republicans did not both advance.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/california-governor-results","research"],[6749,"No US ground invasion or large-scale military operation on Cuban territory occurred by June 16, 2026. The 2026 Cuban crisis consisted of an oil blockade begun in February 2026, increased reconnaissance flights, and Pentagon contingency planning (including a possible 101st Airborne air assault) that officials explicitly said reflected no decision to act.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Cuban_crisis","research"],[6331,"After April 16, 2026 benchmark crude repeatedly settled well above $100: Brent settled $118.03 on April 29 and $114.01 on April 30 (intraday high $126), and Brent again closed above $100 ($100.69) on July 23, 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-us-iran-war-trump.html","research"],[6330,"BLS reported CPI-U rose 4.2% over the 12 months ended May 2026 — above the 4% March reading and the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 — driven by a 23.5% annual jump in energy prices from the Iran war. That satisfies the criterion of a post-March 2026 month above 4%, even though April came in at 3.8% and June eased to 3.5%.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm","research"],[4856,"On the first day of the April 28 - May 1, 2026 special session, Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez killed DeSantis's AI regulation and vaccine-repeal bills, saying no bills on those policies had been filed in the House; the only subject the House took up was congressional redistricting. The AI Bill of Rights did not pass.","https://www.wlrn.org/government-politics/2026-04-28/florida-speaker-kills-desantis-ai-regulation-vaccine-repeal-bills-on-first-day-of-special-session","research"],[4559,"The Lively-Baldoni/Wayfarer case settled roughly two weeks before jury selection was to begin on May 18, 2026; CNN reported the settlement on May 4, 2026 and no trial ever started.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/entertainment/blake-lively-justin-baldoni-settlement","research"],[3930,"US intelligence reported on 21 May 2026 that Iran was rebuilding its military industrial base faster than expected during the ceasefire and had already restarted drone production, replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity; an official said 'The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution.'","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/iran-military-rebuild","research"],[3928,"AP's June 17 reporting records both presidents signing the US-Iran memorandum and the mediator announcing its immediate effect. This significant agreement predates the forecast's roughly October threshold. The measured early context uses the stored October 16 date, not a newly invented claim deadline.","https://apnews.com/article/a7ab28d9b34edfaa2061a67616f610bc","research"],[3476,"By July 4, 2026 the war had not been won: only a fragile June MoU/truce existed, which Trump declared 'over' on July 7, and fighting resumed with no Iranian capitulation or achievement of stated US aims.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[3475,"On April 16, 2026 the US Commission of Fine Arts, stocked with Trump appointees, voted to approve the arch concept and advance the project, as predicted.","https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/politics/2026/04/16/trump-triumphal-arch-washington-dc-commission-fine-arts-meeting-vote-approve-concept-","research"],[3474,"The arch was not constructed by July 4, 2026: the National Capital Planning Commission had only granted preliminary approval requiring structural revisions, with a final approval vote not scheduled until September 2026, and July 4 anniversary coverage shows no completed arch.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-arch-structural-revisions-national-planning-commission/","research"],[3295,"Brittany Watts is publicly reported to be living separately from Swalwell with their children since May 2026, and has reportedly filed divorce papers in California, satisfying the publicly-reported separation/divorce-filing test.","https://www.tmz.com/2026/05/14/eric-swalwell-separated-from-wife-amid-alleged-sexual-misconduct/","research"],[3291,"Iran did come back to the negotiating table: the US and Iran signed a June 17, 2026 MoU extending the ceasefire and agreeing to detailed negotiations, followed by Qatar-mediated talks in Doha in July 2026.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest","research"],[6329,"Thomas Massie lost the May 19, 2026 KY-04 Republican primary to Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who won roughly 54.4% to Massie's 45.6% in the most expensive House primary in US history (over $32 million in advertising).","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/republican-thomas-massie-who-stood-up-to-trump-defeated-in-kentucky-primary","research"],[6326,"It was not a bluff: the US naval blockade had already taken effect on April 13, 2026 — two days before the remark — with 10,000+ personnel and a dozen warships, and it was actively enforced (USS Spruance disabled and seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska on April 19; the US said it had turned 94 vessels away by May 22). Traffic through the Strait collapsed from 100+ ships a day pre-war, and the blockade was lifted June 18 only under the Islamabad Memorandum before being reinstated July 14.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_naval_blockade_of_Iran","research"],[6325,"The talks did produce major progress: Lebanon and Israel signed a US-brokered framework agreement on June 26, 2026 providing for IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon in exchange for Hezbollah disarmament, and follow-up Rome talks on July 14-15 agreed on implementing 'pilot zones' for handover to the Lebanese army. Near miss: the second half of her call held — Israeli airstrikes on claimed Hezbollah infrastructure continued and the withdrawal was still incomplete through July 31, 2026 — but 'no progress' failed as stated.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_peace_talks","research"],[5307,"The first FOMC meeting after 2026-04-15 was April 28-29, 2026, and the Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% (8-4 vote), citing inflation that is 'elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.'","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a1.htm","research"],[5306,"The Islamabad talks collapsed on 12 April 2026 when Vance said they had 'not led to an agreement' and Trump then announced a naval blockade; no comprehensive US-Iran agreement existed by 6 May 2026 - the only signed instrument came later, the 17 June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3470,"On June 26, 2026 Secretary Rubio announced that Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement implementing a ceasefire, produced by the trilateral/ambassadorial track — the deal the pundit predicted would not materialize.","https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/06/joint-statement-of-the-united-states-of-america-republic-of-lebanon-and-state-of-israel-on-the-latest-high-level-trilateral-meeting","research"],[3283,"Iran did return to negotiations after the April talks collapsed: the US and Iran signed a June 17, 2026 memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire 60 days, and further Qatar-mediated rounds convened in Doha in July 2026 with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest","research"],[6324,"Saikat Chakrabarti never took first place; in the June 2, 2026 CA-11 top-two primary he finished third with about 15%, behind Scott Wiener at roughly 41% and Connie Chan at about 29%, and he conceded and dropped out on June 3, 2026.","https://theintercept.com/2026/06/03/california-house-results-chakrabarti-wiener-gomez-gonzales-torres/","research"],[5787,"On June 14, 2026 Trump publicly announced a deal ending the war with Iran, posting 'The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete' and ordering an end to the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; he said the US had 'ended the war with Iran.' That is before the ~June 20, 2026 deadline.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/14/nx-s1-5858099/us-iran-trump-deal-end-war-hormuz","research"],[5303,"Congress did act: the House passed an Iran war powers resolution 215-208 on 3 June 2026 and the Senate passed the same measure 50-48 on 23 June 2026 - the first time both chambers passed a war powers resolution since the Iran war began - before the 30 June 2026 deadline.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/us-senate-votes-to-halt-iran-war-bucking-trump","research"],[4851,"Pope Leo XIV did take part in the commemoration: he issued a formal letter dated June 25 and released for July 4, 2026 marking the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States ('May the Spirit of 1776 continue to inspire hope and unity'). Bannon was right that the Pope spent the day on Lampedusa off Italy, but the claim that he would take no part in commemorating the anniversary failed.","https://www.vatican.va/content/leo-xiv/en/letters/2026/documents/20260625-lettera-anniversario-usa.html","research"],[4849,"Vought testified before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (10:15 a.m., 210 Cannon, Chairman Jodey Arrington presiding), not Thursday, April 16. His Thursday, April 16 hearing was before the Senate Budget Committee, not the House Budget Committee. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Vought did testify before the House Budget Committee that week, one day early (Wed April 15), and did appear Thursday April 16 before Senate Budget - core call held with a one-day/wrong-committee slip.","https://budget.house.gov/hearing/the-presidents-fiscal-year-2027-budget-request","research"],[3922,"After Judge Darrin P. Gayles dismissed the $10B suit without prejudice on 13 April 2026, Trump filed an amended defamation complaint against The Wall Street Journal on 27 May 2026, adding new actual-malice allegations; the Journal has since moved to dismiss a second time, asking for dismissal with prejudice.","https://www.courthousenews.com/the-wall-street-journal-seeks-second-dismissal-of-trump-defamation-lawsuit/","research"],[5784,"EIA weekly US regular gasoline averaged $4.123/gal on 4/13/2026 (mid-April benchmark ~$4.10). Summer 2026 weekly readings exceeded it: $4.305 on 6/01/2026 and $4.146 on 6/08/2026 (July peaked at $4.096 on 7/27, $4.079 on 8/03).","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg&f=w","research"],[5301,"The AAA national average stayed at or above $4.00/gal continuously from 30 March 2026 through 17 June 2026 ($4.24 on 4 June, $4.12 on 11 June), first dropping below to $3.99 on 18 June 2026 - i.e. it held above $4 through the mid-June deadline.","https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/06/","research"],[4847,"Trump renewed his public attacks after April 13, 2026: in a Hugh Hewitt radio interview aired May 5, 2026 he said Pope Leo 'would rather talk about the fact that it's OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon' and accused him of 'endangering a lot of Catholics,' and he continued slamming the Pope on Truth Social afterward.","https://www.osvnews.com/trump-renews-attacks-on-pope-leo-accuses-him-of-endangering-catholics-with-iran-war-opposition/","research"],[4553,"CNN reported on April 14, 2026 that a new accuser had come forward against Eric Swalwell, beyond the four women in its April 10, 2026 investigation; Lonna Drewes said at a Los Angeles news conference that Swalwell drugged and raped her in a West Hollywood hotel room in 2018. NPR reported further new allegations on April 15, 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/14/us/eric-swalwell-new-accuser-sexual-assault-invs","research"],[4548,"Trump deleted the AI image depicting him as Jesus on April 13, 2026 but explicitly refused to apologize, saying there was 'nothing to apologize for' and claiming he thought the image showed him as a Red Cross doctor. No apology was issued through the June 30, 2026 deadline.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/13/politics/trump-jesus-post-pope-feud","research"],[3279,"After April 13, 2026, additional allegations surfaced: on ~April 15 Lonna Drewes publicly accused Swalwell of raping her in a hotel in 2018, and CNN reported three more women describing separate alleged misconduct; a New York criminal probe followed.","https://time.com/article/2026/04/15/eric-swalwell-accusation-sexual-misconduct-rape/","research"],[4845,"Trump's Beijing state visit did occur (May 12-15, 2026), but no Iran deal was cut there; Trump publicly called Iran's latest proposal 'unacceptable' during the visit. The operative agreement, the Islamabad Memorandum, was brokered through Pakistani mediation and signed June 17, 2026 (Trump signing at Versailles during the G7), not in a Trump-Xi room in Beijing.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[8015,"By April 24, 2026 Iran had not surrendered its nuclear materials or ceded control of the Strait of Hormuz; NPR reported on April 28 that peace talks remained deadlocked two months after the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes, with control of Hormuz and the fate of Iran's nuclear program the two central points of contention, and Iran was itself charging tolls on ships transiting the strait rather than ceding control. Iran's own counterproposal (surfaced April 27) explicitly postponed nuclear concessions.","https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates","research"],[4842,"The April 11-12, 2026 Islamabad talks ran 21 hours over three rounds and ended with no agreement and no MoU. Iran rejected the US demands (halting enrichment, surrendering HEU, ending militia funding, toll-free Hormuz passage), so the outcome fell far short of unconditional surrender or the US 15-point program.","https://time.com/article/2026/04/11/strait-of-hormuz-iran-peace-talks/","research"],[4841,"The Islamabad and follow-on talks did produce a signed formal written instrument: the Islamabad Memorandum, signed June 17, 2026 by Trump and Pezeshkian in English and Persian, which established a 60-day window to negotiate final terms. It was a signed document, not an unsigned term sheet.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/18/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-lebanon","research"],[3913,"No renewed US/Israeli strikes on Iran occurred before May 31, 2026; the ceasefire was extended indefinitely in late April and a 14-point MOU was signed June 17. The first violation was Iran's June 25 drone strike, with full collapse and Trump declaring the ceasefire 'over' on July 8, 2026. | RE-ADJUDICATED YES (ceasefire-rule review 2026-08-08): Original evidence was factually wrong: the item's own criterion (renewed US strikes on Iran after April 10 and before May 31) was met by the May 7, 2026 US airstrikes on Iranian military sites and the May 25 self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats; the ceasefire's nominal survival on paper does not mean open fighting had not resumed (Rule 2).","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/world/live-news/iran-war-us-peace-deal","research"],[3912,"Carney's Liberals reached 174 seats after sweeping the three April 13, 2026 by-elections, clearing the 172-seat majority threshold in the House of Commons.","https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/byelections-terrebonne-university-rosedale-scarborough-southwest-9.7162168","research"],[3911,"Brent front-month settled at $118.03 on April 29, 2026 (WTI $106.88) and traded intraday to $126.41 on April 30, well above the $101 level cited on April 10.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/oil-prices-brent-wti-trump-iran.html","research"],[6307,"Israeli operations in Lebanon continued well past April 9, 2026: Israel struck 100 targets in ten minutes on April 8 ('Operation Eternal Darkness', 357 killed), and despite the April 16 truce and its extensions Netanyahu announced on May 28 that Israel was expanding its ground offensive in Lebanon with 'large forces on the ground,' with Israel and Hezbollah still trading strikes on June 4.","https://time.com/article/2026/06/04/hezbollah-rejects-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-agreement-strikes/","research"],[6305,"A US-Iran ceasefire took effect April 7-8, 2026 and functioned through the two-week window: on April 21 Trump announced he was extending it until negotiations concluded, and it ran on to the 14-point MOU signed June 17 before collapsing on July 8 — well outside the stated April 22 window.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/trump-announces-extending-iran-ceasefire-but-says-blockade-remains","research"],[5296,"Trump brokered a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce on 16 April 2026 and extended it on 23 April, but he never forced Israel to halt: Israeli strikes continued essentially daily through the truce, expanding into eastern Lebanon on 27 April and killing at least 28 people on 30 April 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israel%E2%80%93Lebanon_ceasefire","research"],[5294,"Israel did not back off: after Operation Eternal Darkness (8 April) it kept striking Lebanon, and even after the US-brokered 16 April truce the Lebanese Health Ministry recorded killings from Israeli strikes on 25, 26, 28 and 30 April 2026 (at least 28 killed on 30 April), with the bombing campaign expanding into eastern Lebanon on 27 April.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Lebanon_war","research"],[4840,"The Islamabad Memorandum was formally signed in writing (English and Persian) by Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17, 2026, with Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif as co-signatory, formalizing the process of ending the 2026 war. The criteria state the claim fails if such a document is signed.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[3904,"Rather than collapsing by ~April 21, 2026, the two-week US-Iran ceasefire was extended indefinitely by Trump in late April; neither side declared it void within the window (formal breakdown came only in July 2026).","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[3901,"Liberals swept all three federal by-elections on April 13, 2026 (Scarborough Southwest, University-Rosedale, Terrebonne), taking the party to 174 seats and giving Carney a majority government (172 needed of 343).","https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/livestory/byelections-terrebonne-university-rosedale-scarborough-southwest-9.7162168","research"],[3273,"Bombing had not ceased by mid-July 2026: the ceasefire crumbled with fresh strikes on July 9, and by July 16 the US had mounted a sixth consecutive night of attacks on Iran, with strikes continuing until a pause around July 27.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/16/us-mounts-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks-as-iran-warns-of-wider-war","research"],[6739,"After Trump's April 8, 2026 Iran ceasefire announcement Carlson welcomed the ceasefire only as a defeat for the 'bloodthirsty globalist agenda' of Mark Levin and Randy Fine; he did not thank or credit Trump. In the same April 2026 stretch he apologized on his podcast for having 'misled' supporters into voting for Trump, called the Iran campaign the biggest mistake of any president in his lifetime, and Trump publicly attacked him as 'low-IQ' over his Iran posts. No thanks or praise to Trump surfaced before the May 31, 2026 deadline.","https://thehill.com/homenews/media/5819953-trump-tucker-carlson-feud/","research"],[6302,"A July 2, 2026 New York Times report documented Israeli plans to kill Iran's lead negotiators to derail the talks: in April 2026 two Israeli fighter jets entered Iranian airspace from Iraq to intercept the aircraft carrying parliament speaker Ghalibaf home from the Islamabad talks with VP Vance, forcing an emergency landing in Mashhad; US officials had indirectly warned Tehran, saying any such killing 'would end the talks.'","https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-jets-entered-iranian-airspace-assasinate-negotiators-amid-peace-talks-nyt-reports","research"],[6300,"No US base withdrawal from Gulf states was agreed. The June 17, 2026 MOU commits only to lowering US force levels back to pre-war levels 30 days after a final deal; in the interim the US went the other way, deploying a third carrier strike group and about 10,000 additional troops in April 2026 — the largest regional buildup since 2003.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/key-takeaways-14-point-memorandum-understanding-us-iran/story?id=133976791","research"],[6298,"Despite Trump's condition of a 'COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING,' the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed through the April 8-22 pause: Iran charged transit tolls above $1 million per ship (a reported $2M/vessel scheme shared with Oman), only four dry-cargo ships passed on day one, and traffic ran roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels. Toll-free reopening only came via the June 17 MOU.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[4836,"OMB Director Russell Vought testified on 'The President's Fiscal Year 2027 Budget Request' before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday, April 15, 2026 (10:15 a.m., 210 Cannon) and before the Senate Budget Committee on Thursday, April 16, 2026 (10:00 a.m., SD-608) - both inside the April 13-17 window.","https://budget.house.gov/hearing/the-presidents-fiscal-year-2027-budget-request","research"],[3270,"No Middle East peace agreements were formally signed by around July 4, 2026; the only diplomatic milestone was a June 14 memorandum of understanding intended to end the Iran conflict within 60 days, and fighting resumed in early July when the ceasefire collapsed.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[8013,"Iran did not accept the combined terms of opening the Strait of Hormuz and surrendering its nuclear materials for a permanent ceasefire by April 7, 2026. It agreed only to a temporary two-week ceasefire on April 8 tied to reopening Hormuz; Trump himself said on April 12 that 'most points were agreed to, but the only point that mattered, NUCLEAR, was not,' with nuclear disposition negotiations pushed off entirely.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/middleeast/us-iran-ceasefire-explainer-war-intl-hnk","research"],[6296,"US and Israeli attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure did stop after April 7, 2026: Israel halted combat operations against Iran for the duration of the US-brokered truce, and the only US strikes in the window (May 7 and June 26-27) were characterized by CENTCOM as military targets — launch sites, C2 nodes, ISR, naval assets — with only contested Iranian claims of civilian-area damage on Qeshm Island.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-israel-iran-war-energy-related-targets-trump/","research"],[6294,"On April 8, 2026 — the day after the claim — Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone salvos on Gulf civilian/energy infrastructure: 28 drones at Kuwaiti oil installations and fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, 35 attacks on the UAE including a fire at the Habshan gas complex, a struck Saudi pipeline, and a damaged desalination plant in Bahrain.","https://gulfnews.com/story/world/mena/kuwait-airport-bahrain-desalination-plant-hit-as-iran-strikes-gulf-infrastructure-1.500467526","research"],[5536,"No nuclear weapon was detonated on Iranian territory in April 2026. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7, 2026 less than two hours before Trump's deadline, and the threatened conventional strikes on power plants and bridges were postponed.","https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776377/iran-war-updates","research"],[5290,"On 27 July 2026 Houthi forces launched drone strikes on Saudi crude-transport infrastructure from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu (the East-West pipeline system and Abqaiq); satellite imagery confirmed damage near Abqaiq, and Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defence said the drones were launched by 'Iran-backed armed groups' from Iraqi airspace.","https://maritime-executive.com/article/yemen-s-houthi-rebels-claim-strike-on-saudi-pipeline-infrastructure","research"],[5286,"The bombs did not drop at 8 p.m. ET on April 7, 2026. Less than two hours before the deadline, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the ceasefire took effect April 8; no US strikes on Iranian power plants occurred at that deadline.","https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776377/iran-war-updates","research"],[4835,"Iran was not destroyed on the night of April 7-8, 2026: Trump announced a two-week cessation of hostilities just before the 8 p.m. ET deadline, the threatened obliteration of Iran's power plants and bridges did not happen, and the Iranian state continued to function - signing a US-Iran memorandum of understanding with Trump on June 18, 2026.","https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-deadline-power-plants-human-chains-israel-train-strikes/","research"],[4833,"No shift to grid-and-oil infrastructure strikes occurred by April 30, 2026. A two-week ceasefire began April 8; after the April 12-13 Islamabad talks collapsed the US imposed a naval blockade, and April/May US military action (Bandar Abbas, May 7 and May 25) hit missile sites and mine-laying boats. Kharg Island strikes explicitly avoided oil-export infrastructure, and the first confirmed US strike on an Iranian power plant came on July 18, 2026 (Kish Island).","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/trump-iran-hormuz-strikes-power-plants-targeted.html","research"],[4832,"Trump took the off-ramp rather than the strike campaign: a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced just before the 8 p.m. ET April 7, 2026 deadline, the threatened destruction of Iran's power plants and bridges was not carried out, and Brent fell 13% / WTI 14.3% on the de-escalation. Overnight April 8 US action was limited to restrikes on military targets at Kharg Island.","https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-deadline-power-plants-human-chains-israel-train-strikes/","research"],[4533,"During the April 8-21 two-week pause the Strait of Hormuz was never restored to normal traffic: volumes stayed roughly 95% below pre-crisis levels under IRGC-supervised selective passage, advance permission and transit tolls up to $2 million per vessel, with 800+ ships stranded; US-Iran talks collapsed April 12 and Trump declared a naval blockade. Actual reopening did not come until the June 15, 2026 deal.","https://www.newsonair.gov.in/maritime-traffic-through-strait-of-hormuz-remains-restricted-despite-two-week-ceasefire-between-tehran-washington","research"],[4532,"Roughly an hour before the 8 p.m. April 7, 2026 deadline expired, Trump pulled back from his threat that 'a whole civilization will die tonight,' launched no strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants, and instead accepted a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire, calling April 8 'a big day for world peace.'","https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/08/us-and-iran-agree-to-two-week-truce-after-trump-pulls-back-on-threats","research"],[3887,"Iran agreed to the two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7-8, 2026 (FM Araghchi accepting on condition attacks halted), the indefinite extension on April 21-22, and on June 17, 2026 Iranian and US presidents signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire and negotiating window.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3885,"Iran did negotiate directly with both men: Witkoff and Kushner (with VP Vance) met Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi and Speaker Ghalibaf in Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026, and Witkoff and Kushner were again present at US-Iran talks at Lake Lucerne, Switzerland in late June 2026 and met Qatari mediators in Doha on June 30, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3884,"Iran agreed to a ceasefire the same day the claim was made: the US and Iran agreed on April 7, 2026 (US time) to a two-week Pakistan-mediated cessation of hostilities that included Israel and took effect April 8. Trump extended it indefinitely on April 21, and Iranian President Pezeshkian signed a further memorandum of understanding with Trump in Islamabad on June 17, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3269,"Less than two months after the rescue, director Michael Bay confirmed (reported May 20, 2026) that he will make a film dramatizing the April 2026 rescue of the downed F-15E crew in Iran, satisfying the announcement criterion.","https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/05/20/michael-bay-slated-to-direct-film-on-rescue-of-f-15-crew-in-iran/","research"],[3268,"No US nuclear weapon was detonated in or on Iran on the night of April 7, 2026; instead Trump announced a two-week ceasefire that evening before his 8 p.m. deadline, and no nuclear use has been reported at any point in the conflict.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel","research"],[8012,"Ali Khamenei was killed in the Feb 28, 2026 US-Israel strikes; the Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader by March 8, 2026, and despite severe strain and unrest, the Islamic Republic's governing structure (now IRGC-dominated) remained in effective national power through April 27, 2026 with no regime collapse or displacement.","https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/new-khamenei","research"],[6021,"On May 20, 2026 Universal Pictures announced Michael Bay will direct 'Operation Epic Fury,' a feature film dramatizing the April 3-5, 2026 rescue of the two downed US F-15E Strike Eagle crew members in Iran, adapted by Scott Gardenhour from Mitchell Zuckoff's forthcoming book.","https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/05/20/michael-bay-slated-to-direct-film-on-rescue-of-f-15-crew-in-iran/","research"],[4831,"An agreement was reached: on the evening of April 7, 2026, just before his 8 p.m. ET deadline, Trump announced a two-week cessation of hostilities brokered by Pakistan, calling Iran's 10-point proposal a 'workable basis' and conditioning it on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The threatened escalation against power plants and bridges did not occur; talks were set for April 10 in Islamabad.","https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-deadline-power-plants-human-chains-israel-train-strikes/","research"],[4527,"In Trump v. Barbara, decided 6-3 on June 30, 2026, Chief Justice Roberts's majority opinion struck down Trump's executive order and reaffirmed that the 14th Amendment confers citizenship on children born in the US, including to parents in the country illegally.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-order-ending-birthright-citizenship/","research"],[3266,"The threatened large-scale strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges did not occur on April 7, 2026; instead the US, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire before Trump's 8 p.m. deadline, which Trump announced that evening.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-israel","research"],[6738,"Gabbard announced on May 22, 2026 that she was leaving the DNI post, effective June 30, 2026; Reuters reported the White House forced her resignation (the White House denied it, citing her husband's bone-cancer diagnosis), and reporting cited White House anger over her Iran testimony and pressure to go before the midterms. She did leave the post, and the departure is credibly reported as a forced exit, though the forced-vs-voluntary characterization is disputed.","https://rollcall.com/2026/05/22/tulsi-gabbard-out-as-dni-but-trump-doesnt-tee-up-a-confirmation-fight/","research"],[6737,"The Supreme Court's June 30, 2026 opinion in Trump v. Barbara struck down the birthright-citizenship executive order 6-3 and preserved citizenship for children born in the US regardless of parents' immigration status, well inside the July 31, 2026 window.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/supreme-court-strikes-down-trumps-order-ending-birthright-citizenship/","research"],[6292,"US military operations against Iran continued far past the two-to-three-week window Trump gave on Apr 1, 2026. The Apr 8 ceasefire repeatedly broke down amid continued US naval blockade operations and low-intensity fighting, Trump declared it over on Jul 8, 2026, and the war remains ongoing as of Aug 8, 2026 (day 161).","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[6289,"On Jun 30, 2026 the Supreme Court decided Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) 6-3 against the administration, striking down the executive order ending birthright citizenship and holding the Fourteenth Amendment guarantees citizenship to virtually all children born in the US.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[6019,"The August 8, 2026 roll call confirming Todd Blanche as attorney general was 50-49 with every Democrat voting no (zero Democratic yes votes) and only Republicans Collins and Murkowski defecting - within the 'one or two' exception Cruz allowed.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/politics/senate-vote-blanche-confirmation-vis","research"],[6018,"Todd Blanche, Trump's next attorney general nominee after Pam Bondi, was confirmed 50-49 in an overnight vote gaveled down at 4:31 a.m. on August 8, 2026 - Republicans supplied only 50 yes votes, with Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voting no, short of the 'at least fifty one' Cruz predicted. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Core call held (Blanche was confirmed) and Republicans supplied 50 votes against the predicted 51 - a one-vote, ~2% miss.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/politics/senate-vote-blanche-confirmation-vis","research"],[6017,"US strike operations against Iran did not cease within two to three weeks of April 3, 2026: the April 8 ceasefire broke down, the US imposed a naval blockade after failed April 12-13 talks, strikes resumed May 7, the June 17 MOU collapsed and Trump declared the deal 'over' on July 8 before a second major strike round hitting 90 targets - months, not a couple of weeks.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392","research"],[3873,"Pam Bondi did not appear for the April 14, 2026 House Oversight deposition. DOJ notified the committee she would not appear because she had been ousted as Attorney General, and Ranking Member Robert Garcia and committee Democrats responded by introducing a civil contempt resolution over her failure to comply with the bipartisan subpoena. She was later scheduled to testify in May instead.","https://oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-releases/oversight-democrats-statement-on-doj-lies-surrounding-pam-bondi-deposition-after-successfully-introducing-civil-contempt-resolution","research"],[6735,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court decided Trump v. Barbara 6-3, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for the Court, striking down Trump's executive order and upholding constitutional birthright citizenship — a ruling against the administration's position, within the June 30, 2026 window.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[6286,"Quinnipiac's Jul 29, 2026 national poll found 60% of voters oppose US military action against Iran vs 34% support - the highest opposition recorded since Quinnipiac began asking the question in early March 2026, i.e. above the early-April level. Fox News (Jul 17-20) found 56% opposed and AP-NORC found 64% saying the fighting is not worth the risks.","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3964","research"],[5269,"The 2026 national average peaked around $4.55-$4.56/gal in late May 2026 (EIA weekly high $4.500 on 05/11; AAA daily peak ~$4.564 on 05/28), well short of the ~$5.02 nominal record set in June 2022. By the June 30, 2026 deadline the EIA weekly average had already fallen back to $3.831 (06/29), so no all-time high was reached in the window. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Prices peaked at ~$4.56 against the ~$5.02 record — about 9% short, inside the ~10% band — and the directional call of a historic spike (highest in four years) held.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","research"],[5267,"Two weeks after April 2, 2026 a ceasefire was in force, not ongoing combat: the US-Iran truce took effect April 8, 2026, US strikes on Iran halted, the two-week pause was reported as largely holding through mid-April despite violations, and Trump extended it indefinitely on April 21, 2026. | RE-ADJUDICATED YES (ceasefire-rule review 2026-08-08): Rule 2: squarely a war-duration claim graded NO only because a ceasefire was in force on April 16; the ceasefire collapsed July 8 and the war was never over, so the claim came true.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3864,"Strait of Hormuz traffic remained far below the pre-war baseline of roughly 130-140 vessels per day through May 2026; open transits fell to near zero from May 6, with only a trickle of about 5-10 ships per day, and the waterway had been effectively closed since March 2, 2026.","https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/blog/iran-war-shipping-update-may-11-2026","research"],[3862,"On April 8, 2026 the Justice Department informed House Oversight that Bondi would not appear for the April 14 deposition, arguing the subpoena reached her only as attorney general and she no longer held that office; she did not appear on April 14 and Oversight Democrats moved a civil contempt resolution.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/politics/pam-bondi-epstein-deposition-justice-department","research"],[3861,"Kash Patel was still FBI Director well past the ~mid-2026 window: on July 20, 2026 Politico reported he was planning an October trip to Moscow and St. Petersburg in his capacity as director, and the FBI leadership page still lists him.","https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2026-07-20/fbi-director-kash-patel-planning-a-trip-to-russia-politico-reports","research"],[6281,"The war was not over by mid-May 2026 and is still ongoing as of Aug 8, 2026 (day 161). The Apr 8 ceasefire repeatedly broke down with low-intensity US-Iran fighting and a continuing US naval blockade throughout April-June, and Trump declared the ceasefire over on Jul 8, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5532,"In Trump v. Barbara, decided June 30, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against the administration, with Roberts writing that children born to parents unlawfully or temporarily present in the U.S. are citizens at birth. That is a clean constitutional win for the respondents, not a narrow 'split the baby' compromise.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[4825,"In his April 1, 2026 prime-time address on the Iran war Trump did not mention NATO at all; takeaways coverage was headlined 'No end date for Iran war, no direct criticism of NATO.' He said only that countries most dependent on Hormuz oil shipments should take the lead in protecting the waterway after the war.","https://www.post-gazette.com/news/nation/2026/04/01/trump-iran-war-speech-takeaways/stories/202604010099","research"],[3858,"The case docket records the administration defendants' notice of appeal to the D.C. Circuit on April 1, 2026, creating appellate case 26-5101.","https://clearinghouse.net/case/47494/","research"],[3857,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court decided Trump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) against Trump, with Chief Justice Roberts holding that children born in the US to parents unlawfully or temporarily present are citizens at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment, striking down Executive Order 14160.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf","research"],[3856,"A US-Iran ceasefire that included Israel was agreed April 7 and took effect April 8, 2026 (a Pakistan-mediated two-week pause), before the April 15 test date; CFR's conflict tracker describes it as holding through mid-April, though violations followed (US naval blockade from April 13). The stated claim of 'no ceasefire' in early-to-mid April was falsified. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Under Rule 2 the war did not end (the April ceasefire collapsed July 8), so the core 'war won't end' call held, but the claim's explicit 'no ceasefire' clause was falsified by a real April 8 ceasefire — half credit, not a flip.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3262,"The full transcript of Trump's April 1, 2026 address to the nation on the Iran war contains no mention of NATO, European bases, or reconsidering US commitments to Europe; his musing about pulling out of NATO came separately in a Telegraph newspaper interview, not in the address. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Wrong venue, right call - Trump did publicly muse about reconsidering NATO in that period, but in a Telegraph interview rather than in the April 1 address.","https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/april-1-2026-address-nation-iran","research"],[8008,"Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic US Senate primary on August 4, 2026, narrowly defeating Rep. Haley Stevens despite a roughly $65 million outside spending campaign against him led by AIPAC, and was projected/certified as the nominee.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750","research"],[7358,"New York Magazine was divested from Vox Media and sold to James Murdoch's Lupa Systems in a deal reported at more than $300 million, announced May 20, 2026 and completed July 8, 2026.","https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lupa-systems-completes-acquisition-of-new-york-magazine-vox-media-podcast-network-and-vox-302821001.html","research"],[7357,"Vox Media was split up exactly as described: Lupa Systems completed its acquisition of the Vox Media Podcast Network, New York Magazine and Vox on July 8, 2026 (announced May 20, ~$300M), with Jim Bankoff as CEO of the new Vox Media, while The Verge, Eater, SB Nation, Popsugar and The Dodo were spun into a separate independent company under Ryan Pauley.","https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lupa-systems-completes-acquisition-of-new-york-magazine-vox-media-podcast-network-and-vox-302821001.html","research"],[5771,"The 2026 Iran war began with US/Israeli airstrikes on Feb 28, 2026, so week five ended ~April 4. Active US operations continued past that point: a US F-15E was shot down over Iran on April 3 and a large combat search-and-rescue operation followed, and the ceasefire did not take effect until April 8 (April 7 US time), after which the US still conducted Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing and began a naval blockade on April 13.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5770,"Courts have imposed orders on the administration over the ballroom. District Judge Richard Leon enjoined construction on 31 March 2026 ('Unless and until Congress blesses this project through statutory authorization, construction has to stop'), and on 7 August 2026 the D.C. Circuit ruled 2-1 that the construction is unlawful and ordered work on the $400 million ballroom halted absent congressional approval, staying its order two weeks for a Supreme Court appeal.","https://www.npr.org/2026/08/07/nx-s1-5925123/white-house-ballroom-appeals-court-congress","research"],[4824,"Trump signed the 'Ensuring Citizen Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections' executive order on March 31, 2026; a coalition led by the League of Women Voters filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts on April 2, 2026 - two days later. Democratic party committees also sued.","https://www.aclum.org/press-releases/voting-rights-groups-challenge-executive-order-on-mail-in-ballots-as-illegal-interference-in-elections/","research"],[3848,"No major national poll put Trump's job approval below 30% by June 30, 2026. His approval-average low was 39% (June 2, 2026); the worst individual results were Reuters/Ipsos 35% (June 3-8) and an American Research Group 30% - and even that 30% floor was not breached, with Newsweek's low-water tracking showing nothing at 29% or under. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): An American Research Group national poll hit exactly 30% — landing on the threshold without breaching it, a fractional miss against the named 30% figure.","https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-unwanted-approval-rating-lows-2026-12257959","research"],[6547,"The House's 60-day (roughly eight-week) CR funding all of DHS including ICE, passed 213-203 on March 27-28, 2026, never passed the Senate; Schumer called it 'dead on arrival' and the Senate instead passed its own bill excluding ICE and parts of CBP. On April 30, 2026 House Republicans caved and passed the Senate-style bill without full immigration-enforcement funding.","https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/homeland-security-government-shutdown-dhs-funding","research"],[6546,"A fourth nationwide No Kings mobilization was held June 14, 2026 on Trump's 80th birthday, following the June 2025, October 2025 and March 28, 2026 editions; organizers staged events at roughly 1,800+ locations plus a 'Rise Up, Sing Out' concert in New York streamed to hundreds of watch parties.","https://www.britannica.com/event/No-Kings-protests","research"],[6014,"The reconciliation bill that was enacted - the $70B Secure America Act signed June 10, 2026 - funds ICE ($38.5B) and CBP ($22.6B) for three years through 2029, not for ten years as claimed.","https://time.com/article/2026/06/10/house-passes-secure-america-act-senate-reconciliation-bill-funding-immigration-enforcement-trump/","research"],[6013,"The House DHS bill funding the whole department including ICE (passed 220-207 on Jan 22, 2026) never cleared the Senate and was not enacted; the shutdown ended April 30, 2026 when the House instead passed the Senate's version stripping ICE and cutting CBP, which Trump signed the same day.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/30/politics/dhs-shutdown-funding-bill-house-vote","research"],[5264,"As of April 6, 2026 the Strait of Hormuz was still closed and no US-Iran agreement existed — Iran had rejected a US 48-hour ceasefire proposal on April 4, and the first ceasefire was only announced April 7 (April 8 Middle East time). The strait itself stayed effectively closed until June 17, 2026, and no peace agreement was reached within the week.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[4523,"Days after his March 27, 2026 Jupiter Island crash and DUI arrest, Woods announced he would step away from golf to 'seek treatment'; he entered a residential program in Zurich, Switzerland and returned to Palm Beach on May 13, 2026 after completing rehab.","https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/tiger-woods-completes-rehab-but-legal-issues-continue","research"],[3259,"After its March 27 vote the Senate left for its scheduled two-week Easter recess and did not return until Monday, April 13, despite White House press secretary Leavitt publicly calling on Congress to cut the recess short; the shutdown continued through April and was not resolved until April 30.","https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/congress-struggles-with-dhs-funding-and-reconciliation","research"],[4521,"On May 13, 2026 the South Carolina Supreme Court overturned Alex Murdaugh's murder convictions and ordered a new trial, finding clerk of court Becky Hill's comments to jurors were 'more than innocuous interventions'; a retrial was set for April 5, 2027.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/us/alex-murdaugh-murder-appeal","research"],[3840,"EIA Europe Brent spot (via FRED, DCOILBRENTEU) during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026: $121.88 on Mar 30, $126.69 on Mar 31, $119.56 on Apr 1, and $127.61 on Apr 2 - squarely inside the predicted $125-$130 band within the stated week.","https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU","research"],[3839,"After the Senate's voice-vote DHS bill in the early morning of March 27, 2026, senators left for a two-week recess; the Senate stood adjourned until 3pm on April 13, 2026, with only pro forma sessions on April 6 and April 9 and no plans to return early despite House Republicans' counter-CR. No Senate votes occurred in the interim and the DHS shutdown ran until April 30.","https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/dhs-shutdown-2026-senate-funding-day-42/","research"],[3837,"The 2026-03-28 No Kings day drew 8+ million participants versus about 7 million in October 2025 and 5 million in June 2025, and was reported as the largest single-day protest in American history.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2026_No_Kings_protests","research"],[3836,"Organizers put nationwide turnout for the 2026-03-28 No Kings day at more than 8 million across 3,300+ events (about 2.3% of the US population) — roughly half the predicted 15-20 million, and organizers explicitly acknowledged falling short of their 3.5% goal.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2026_No_Kings_protests","research"],[3831,"The conflict lasted far beyond four weeks from 2026-03-27. US and Iranian forces exchanged fire through April and May despite the 2026-04-08 ceasefire, the US naval blockade was maintained when Trump extended the ceasefire on 2026-04-21, a second 60-day deal was needed on 2026-06-12, and Trump declared 'the ceasefire is over' on 2026-07-08 with fighting ongoing as of 2026-07-30.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[6725,"Trump made no in-person visit to Iranian territory before 1 June 2026. US-Iran diplomacy over the window ran through indirect channels - Muscat talks mediated by Oman, Pakistani mediation of the April ceasefire - and the Islamabad Memorandum was signed remotely on 17 June 2026, with Trump signing in France at Versailles after the G7 while Pezeshkian signed separately in Tehran.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations","research"],[6545,"The SAVE America Act was offered as a reconciliation amendment twice and failed both times, 48-50 (Kennedy on April 23, 2026; Graham on June 4, 2026), with Collins, Murkowski, McConnell and Tillis joining all Democrats. The Senate reconciliation package passed 52-47 on June 5, 2026 without the SAVE America provisions.","https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/senate-rejects-another-gop-push-to-revive-save-america-act/","research"],[6544,"The House did not take up the Senate's DHS measure on or about Monday March 30, 2026; House Republicans rejected it and instead passed their own 60-day full-DHS CR 213-203 on March 27-28, which Schumer declared dead on arrival. The impasse ran on to become the longest agency shutdown in US history, ending only when the House caved by voice vote on day 76, April 30, 2026.","https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/homeland-security-government-shutdown-dhs-funding","research"],[6543,"Trump's 10-day pause expired April 6, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET and no strike on Iran's energy plants was carried out that day; he pushed the ultimatum to the night of April 7, then called the strikes off entirely and announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was at least the third Iran deadline he set and then let slide.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/7-times-trump-hed-launch-devastating-strikes-iran/story?id=135331621","research"],[6273,"Israel holds roughly 570-600 sq km of southern Lebanon with evacuation orders covering about 2,000 sq km, over 1.2 million Lebanese (more than 20% of the population) have been expelled, and Israel bars their return - Katz said on June 24, 2026 that 200,000 residents will not be allowed back and Israeli forces will not withdraw. The 'entire population' framing is imperfect: Christian, Druze and Sunni residents have been permitted to remain under curfew.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_occupation_of_Southern_Lebanon_(2026)","research"],[6270,"The next major US operations were Hormuz-focused, not a Kharg Island seizure: the April 7-8 ceasefire was framed around Iran 'immediately' opening the Strait, US ships transited for mine-clearing on April 11, a full naval blockade of Iranian ports was imposed by April 15, and Trump ordered the Navy on April 23 to destroy Iranian mine-laying boats in the Strait. No Kharg seizure occurred through June 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_campaign","research"],[6008,"The Senate passed the $70B Secure America Act reconciliation bill 52-47 on June 5, 2026, but it funds ICE and CBP for three years (through 2029, 'through the end of Trump's term'), not the ten years Cruz predicted.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-pass-bill-fund-ice-border-patrol-end-trumps-term-rcna349197","research"],[6007,"The House did not take up the Senate-passed DHS measure by April 10, 2026; it passed the Senate-amended DHS bill by voice vote only on April 30, 2026, after Speaker Johnson's retreat, and Trump signed it that day ending the 76-day shutdown.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dhs-shutdown-house-vote/","research"],[6006,"After Trump's March 27, 2026 order paying TSA staff, the national callout rate fell from a peak above 12% on March 27 to just under 8% by April 5 (a 43% decline), Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson wait times dropped to 10 minutes or less, and Houston Bush posted waits of 5 and 9 minutes - all inside the two-week window.","https://time.com/article/2026/04/06/airport-waits-tsa-dhs-shutdown-trump/","research"],[5763,"Republicans caved: the House passed the Senate's DHS funding bill by voice vote and Trump signed it on 30 April 2026, funding DHS with no money for ICE or Border Patrol and without the SAVE America Act. GOP leaders punted immigration-enforcement funding to budget reconciliation instead.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/congress-expected-end-record-75-day-partial-government-shutdown-rcna342903","research"],[5762,"The DHS/TSA funding impasse ended on 30 April 2026 when Trump signed a bill funding DHS (including TSA, Coast Guard, FEMA, Secret Service) through September, ending the record 75-76 day shutdown. The SAVE America Act was not attached and was never passed; Trump got nothing for the TSA funding hostage-taking.","https://www.npr.org/2026/04/30/nx-s1-5806054/congress-dhs-shutdown","research"],[5531,"The House passed the Senate-passed bill funding DHS except ICE and CBP by voice vote on April 30, 2026, and Trump signed it the same day, ending the record 76-day DHS shutdown.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/04/30/dhs-funding-shutdown-house/","research"],[3825,"No US ground forces landed on Kharg Island or other Iranian territory by 2026-04-30; the only US operation there was the 2026-03-13 bombing raid, and a ceasefire took effect 2026-04-08. A ground operation remained speculative as of late July 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Kharg_Island_attack","research"],[3822,"Organizers reported more than 8 million participants at over 3,300 sites on 2026-03-28, exceeding the roughly 7 million at the October 2025 No Kings day and making it the largest single-day protest in US history.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2026_No_Kings_protests","research"],[3258,"The DHS partial shutdown was still ongoing at the end of March 26, 2026; the Senate did not pass its partial funding bill until 2:20 a.m. on March 27, and funding was not enacted until Trump signed the bill on April 30, 2026.","https://rollcall.com/2026/03/27/senate-passes-bill-to-fund-most-of-homeland-security-department/","research"],[5757,"AAA's national average for regular gasoline was $3.98/gallon on 26 March 2026 — up 10 cents on the week and a full dollar from $2.98 on 26 February — but it did not reach $4.00 by the deadline. The national average first exceeded $4.00 on 2 April 2026 at $4.08. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): AAA's average was $3.98 on the deadline date - within 0.5% of the named $4.00 figure - and crossed $4.00 a week later on April 2.","https://gasprices.aaa.com/2026/03/","research"],[4815,"Only one of the two MEUs made it by March 27. The USS Tripoli with the embarked 31st MEU (part of a 3,500-Marine-and-sailor task force) arrived in the Middle East on Friday, March 27, 2026, but the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group with the 11th MEU only departed San Diego on March 18-20, 2026 and was not expected on station until mid-to-late April.","https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/03/28/uss-tripoli-embarked-31st-marine-expeditionary-unit-arrive-in-middle-east/","research"],[3251,"The June 17, 2026 Islamabad MOU signed by Trump and Pezeshkian included immediate oil sanctions relief, and OFAC's implementing General License X authorized American companies to engage in production, sale, delivery, offloading, and even US importation of Iranian-origin oil. This constitutes an announced US-Iran agreement giving American companies access to Iranian oil, though the relief is 60-day and now imperiled by the MOU's breakdown.","https://www.gibsondunn.com/us-iran-memorandum-of-understanding-prospective-sanctions-relief-commercial-opportunities-and-legal-risks/","research"],[7349,"Trump Mobile began shipping the $499 T1 phone to paying pre-order customers on May 13, 2026, about seven weeks after Swisher said it would never launch; roughly 600,000 deposits had been collected and CEO Pat O'Brien confirmed shipments had started.","https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2026/05/13/trump-mobile-ships-us-assembled-t1-phones-after-months-long-delay/90067186007/","research"],[5752,"The CFTC opened an investigation (reported 15 April 2026 by WSJ/Bloomberg) into the spike in crude oil futures trading — over $500 million in trades in the ~15 minutes before Trump's 23 March 2026 Truth Social post postponing strikes, roughly 9x normal volume — focusing on at least three firms and trading on NYMEX and ICE. Rep. Ritchie Torres also formally demanded SEC and CFTC probes.","https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/us-cftc-probes-spike-oil-011947276.html","research"],[5529,"There was no May 2026 probable cause hearing: on May 8, 2026 Judge Tony Graf continued Tyler Robinson's preliminary hearing from its May 18 start date to July 6-10, 2026, so no state evidence was submitted at a May hearing within the window. (Prosecutors did introduce new forensic evidence, surveillance video and alleged admissions at the July hearing.)","https://www.ksl.com/article/51495007/rulings-on-cameras-preliminary-hearing-expected-today-in-tyler-robinson-murder-case","research"],[5256,"Vice President JD Vance did not go to Islamabad during March 23-29, 2026; he arrived in Islamabad on April 11, 2026 with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for talks with the Iranian delegation, departing April 12 without an agreement.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3806,"Equities did not crater on the inflation prints. The S&P 500 rose about 0.21% on April 10, 2026 (March CPI day) and fell only about 0.2% on May 12, 2026 (April CPI day) after setting record closing highs; the index crossed 7,500 for the first time in May 2026 with 22 all-time highs through end-May and was up nearly 10% on the year by July 1.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/business/stock-market-up-inflation-war","research"],[3805,"The next releases after 3/24/26 showed a sharp acceleration: March CPI came in at 3.3% y/y (vs 2.4% in February), then 3.8% in April and 4.2% in May; March PPI final demand rose 0.5% m/m and 4.0% y/y (largest 12-month advance since Feb 2023), and April PPI jumped 1.4% m/m to 6.0% y/y, the highest since Dec 2022.","https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_04142026.htm","research"],[3804,"The NTSB preliminary report released April 23, 2026 found the same local controller cleared Jazz flight 646 to land on runway 4 at 11:35:07 p.m. and, five seconds later with the jet ~130 feet above the ground, cleared ARFF Rescue 35 to cross that runway, then shouted 'stop, stop, stop' nine seconds before impact; ASDE-X gave no alert. Coverage of the findings attributed the crash to the controller's decision plus technology failures, though a formal probable cause is still pending.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/us/laguardia-ntsb-preliminary-report","research"],[3803,"As of the April 6, 2026 reporting window, Persian Gulf LNG exports had halted: no loaded LNG tanker had transited Hormuz since late February, Qatar's Ras Laffan plant had been shut for over a month after Iranian drone strikes, and Qatar could only supply Kuwait by drawing down storage tanks. Qatari LNG shipments via Hormuz were down about 97%.","https://gcaptain.com/qatar-lng-vessels-u-turn-after-attempt-to-pass-through-hormuz/","research"],[3802,"No US ground landing on Kharg Island occurred by June 30, 2026. The operation stayed at the planning/consideration stage, and reporting notes that talk of a seizure died down after the US and Iran signed the Islamabad memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026; as of late July it still had not happened.","https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/24/us-ground-operation-iran-invasion-kharg-war-trump/","research"],[3243,"No new Middle East peace or normalization agreement was announced by mid-April 2026; the only development was a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire (April 8) that was repeatedly violated, plus a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce on April 16, which is not a peace or normalization deal. Saudi-Israel normalization remained unrealized.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[6542,"On June 8, 2026 Netanyahu announced in a national address that Israel had halted its attacks on Iran 'for now' — explicitly stopping short of calling it a ceasefire — after Trump's direct intervention over the June 7-8 exchange; Netanyahu had separately called off a major Iran strike with jets on the runway after Trump warned Israel would be on its own. That is the informal, uneasy quasi-ceasefire under US pressure, reached before mid-2026.","https://time.com/article/2026/06/08/israel-iran-war-direct-attacks-latest-ceasefire-trump-netanyahu-lebanon/","research"],[6541,"Rather than winding down after March 23, 2026, the conflict escalated further: Trump imposed a US naval blockade of Iran on April 12 after the Islamabad talks failed on the nuclear point, US forces struck Iranian military facilities again on May 7, and Israel and Iran traded their worst strikes in months on June 7-8. The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum and June 28 cessation produced only a temporary truce that Trump declared over on July 8, 2026, with hostilities ongoing — under the ceasefire-is-not-war's-end standard, US operations did not substantially cease by mid-2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5528,"Democrats never took Trump's SAVE America Act-for-ICE-cut trade: the Senate failed to invoke cloture on the SAVE America Act 53-47 on March 26, 2026 (60 needed), and the DHS shutdown was instead ended April 30, 2026 by a bill funding DHS minus ICE and CBP, with no SAVE America Act passage.","https://campaignlegal.org/press-releases/victory-voters-save-america-act-fails-senate","research"],[5255,"The Strait of Hormuz was not reopened to normal commercial shipping at any point through April 2026; despite the April 8 ceasefire terms it remained effectively closed, with only 15 ships having transited by April 10 and Iran limiting passage and charging tolls. It was not reopened until June 17, 2026.","https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/4/28/when-will-strait-of-hormuz-be-safe-for-commercial-shipping-again","research"],[5254,"AAA reported the US national average for regular gasoline exceeded $4.00/gallon in early April 2026 for the first time since August 2022 — $4.08 on April 2, 2026 and $4.16 by April 9 — well inside the April 15, 2026 deadline.","https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/04/for-the-first-time-in-four-years-national-average-exceeds-4-gallon/","research"],[5253,"A US-Iran ceasefire did take effect within weeks of the March 23, 2026 pause announcement: Trump announced the agreement April 7 (April 8 Middle East time), US strikes halted, and the truce was extended indefinitely on April 21, 2026 — all inside the through-April-2026 window. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The core call — the March 23 talks would not end the war — held and still holds, with the miss confined to the secondary clause that no ceasefire would result; ceasefire-existence is not protected by Rule 2, so half credit rather than a flip.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next","research"],[3796,"EIA weekly US regular all-formulations retail gasoline averaged $3.961/gal for the week of March 23, 2026 and rose to $4.123/gal for the week of April 27, 2026 (peaking at $4.123 on April 13); prices went up, not down, over the window.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","research"],[6717,"US involvement expanded sharply after 21 March 2026 rather than winding down: joint US-Israeli strikes on 28 March killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and hit military targets, the Pentagon accelerated deployment of roughly 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne plus two Marine Expeditionary Units, and Trump imposed a full naval blockade enforced by CENTCOM on 11-12 April, followed by further US strikes on Iranian vessels and infrastructure on 7, 19 and 25 May. Combat operations were still running at the 30 June 2026 deadline.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[4807,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff, roughly 64% to 36% on about 1.38 million votes. The March 3 first round had sent them to a runoff with Cornyn narrowly ahead (about 42% to 41%); Paxton is the Republican nominee and Cornyn is the first Texas Republican senator to lose renomination.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[7347,"OpenAI announced the Sora social app's shutdown on March 24, 2026 (four days after this March 20 episode) and the Sora web and app experiences were discontinued on April 26, 2026, with the API set to end September 24, 2026.","https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/24/openais-sora-was-the-creepiest-app-on-your-phone-now-its-shutting-down/","research"],[6256,"US year-over-year CPI inflation was 3.3% in March 2026 and rose in the following months to 3.8% in April and 4.2% in May 2026 before easing to 3.5% in June — exceeding the March level in subsequent readings.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-4-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-may-2026.htm","research"],[5745,"US military operations against Iran did not stop after 2026-03-20; strikes continued for months, including CENTCOM retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile/drone sites in late June 2026 and a sustained US air campaign in mid-July 2026 hitting bridges in Hormozgan Province, power infrastructure, and Chabahar port.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/as-u-s-strikes-bridges-in-iran-it-targets-a-water-desalination-plant-in-kuwait","research"],[5252,"Trump reversed course inside the window: on April 7-8, 2026 he agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan that halted 40 days of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and on April 21, 2026 he extended that ceasefire indefinitely. That is a US de-escalation and halt to strikes before the end of April 2026. | RE-ADJUDICATED YES (ceasefire-rule review 2026-08-08): Rule 2: graded NO because the April ceasefire and its extension were treated as Trump turning the war around, but the truce collapsed July 8 and US strikes resumed — Trump did not change course, so the claim came true.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next","research"],[5249,"The request shrank rather than grew. Against the roughly $200B figure Hegseth cited on March 19, 2026, the White House's actual supplemental request submitted June 24, 2026 was $87.6 billion (covering the Iran war plus farm aid and other items); the House reconciliation package adopted July 22 totaled $95 billion, with $73 billion for the Iran war.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/24/iran-war-supplemental-trump-congress.html","research"],[6251,"The war did not end within four to six weeks of its February 28, 2026 start. The April 8 truce was only a two-week ceasefire that was repeatedly violated; Trump announced a US blockade of Iranian shipping on April 12, the ceasefire was later described as on 'life support' amid intermittent fighting, and Trump declared it over on July 8, 2026 — hostilities were still ongoing past April 15.","https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12678","research"],[6249,"Brent continued climbing after March 18, 2026, trading well above $108 and surging past $120 a barrel in the week of April 30, 2026 (a four-year high) before easing to about $115 — inside the April 30 window.","https://www.hirschmaninc.com/10424-2/","research"],[5740,"The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% at both meetings after the claim: 2026-04-29 (hold, with dissents) and 2026-06-17 (12-0 hold, the fourth consecutive hold). No rate cut occurred through June 2026.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm","research"],[5247,"The AAA national average did not reach $4.00 by roughly March 22, 2026. It was still $3.98 on March 26, 2026, and only exceeded $4/gallon in early April, reaching $4.08 on April 2, 2026 — the first time above $4 in four years. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Classic near miss on both tests: $3.98 vs the named $4.00 (0.5% short) at the deadline, and $4.00 was crossed April 2, only ~11 days past the stated window.","https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/04/for-the-first-time-in-four-years-national-average-exceeds-4-gallon/","research"],[4806,"Powell announced April 29, 2026 that he would remain on the Federal Reserve Board as a governor after his chairmanship ended, and he did: his chair term ended May 15, 2026 (he served as chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh was sworn in May 22, 2026) while his governor term runs to January 31, 2028. He is the first outgoing chair to stay on the Board since Marriner Eccles in 1948.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/jerome-powell-says-he-will-continue-to-serve-as-a-fed-governor-even-after-chairmanship-ends-.html","research"],[6000,"No SAVE America Act roll call after the March 18 claim landed in the 50-52 yes range: cloture on the Tuberville-Blackburn amendment failed 49-41 on March 21, two motions to table Schumer motions on S.1383 were 53-47 on March 24, and cloture on the Husted amendment #4732 failed 53-47 on March 26. (The only 50-52 tally, the 51-48 motion to proceed, was March 17, before the prediction was made.) | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Post-claim tallies of 49 and 53 yes votes bracket the predicted 50-52 range within ~2%, inside the 10% numeric band.","https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/thursday-march-26-2026/","research"],[5999,"No final vote on the SAVE America Act was taken on Thursday, March 19, 2026. The Senate debated the House message to S.1383 all day with no roll call votes; Majority Leader Thune only filed cloture on the Blackburn-Tuberville second-degree amendment at 7:27 p.m., and the Senate adjourned at 10:22 p.m. That cloture vote failed 49-41 on Saturday, March 21. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The Senate's decisive SAVE Act vote slipped two days, from the predicted Thursday March 19 to the failed March 21 cloture vote - a narrow timing miss.","https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/thursday-march-19th-2026/","research"],[5526,"The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee advanced Mullin's nomination 8-7 on March 18, 2026, with John Fetterman the lone Democrat voting yes and Rand Paul the lone Republican voting no.","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/03/24/markwayne-mullin-confirmed-as-secretary-of-homeland-security/","research"],[5525,"The full Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security on March 23, 2026 by a vote of 54-45 (52 Republicans plus Democrats Fetterman and Heinrich), replacing Kristi Noem.","https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/03/24/us-senate-confirms-markwayne-mullin-secretary-department-homeland-security","research"],[4804,"The USS Gerald R. Ford deployed from Norfolk June 24, 2025 and returned May 16, 2026 after 326 days - never reaching one year, and only about 295-297 days at mid-April 2026. On April 15, 2026 it broke the post-Vietnam/post-Cold War record (USS Abraham Lincoln's 294-295 days), not the post-WWII record: USS Midway's 332-day 1972-73 deployment still stands.","https://www.stripes.com/branches/navy/2026-05-16/ford-carrier-strike-group-homecoming-21680687.html","research"],[4803,"Wynton Hall's 'Code Red: The Left, the Right, China, and the Race to Control AI' (HarperCollins, released March 17, 2026) debuted at #13 on the New York Times bestseller list in its first week on sale, reported March 25, 2026 - inside the ~six-week window, though short of the #1 Bannon also floated.","https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/03/25/instant-bestseller-wynton-halls-code-red-rockets-onto-nyt-list-in-first-week/","research"],[4802,"Bunker-buster strikes did repeat on the night Bannon named. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said at a March 19, 2026 Pentagon briefing that 'as reported by U.S. CENTCOM yesterday' (March 18) the US 'dropped 5,000 pound penetrator weapons into underground storage facilities storing coastal defense cruise missiles' - an operation distinct from the GBU-72's combat debut overnight March 17-18 against hardened coastal missile sites. Hegseth said March 18 had featured the largest strike package to that point.","https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2026/03/19/us-strikes-iranian-underground-missile-storage-with-5000-pound-penetrator/","research"],[3782,"Front-month Brent's 2026 high was about $120.88-$126.41/bbl on 30 April 2026 and WTI never approached $150; by 30 June 2026 oil was back to about $75/bbl. Crude did not trade at or above $150 on or before 30 June 2026. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Same event as 3780: the dated Brent benchmark reached $144.42 on April 7, within ~4% of the $150 call, so the numeric miss is narrow despite front-month futures peaking near $126.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-us-iran-war-trump.html","research"],[3781,"Joe Kent posted his resignation letter on X on 17 March 2026; Snopes reported on 27 March 2026 that the post had more than 94 million views, satisfying the 'at or near 100 million' test well before the 30 April 2026 deadline.","https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/joe-kent-resignation-letter-iran/","research"],[6540,"Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss won the March 17, 2026 Illinois 9th District Democratic primary with 29.5% of a 15-candidate field, ahead of Kat Abughazaleh (25.9%) and state Sen. Laura Fine (20.2%) — one of the two names given.","https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois'_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_17_Democratic_primary)","research"],[6243,"Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel during the week of April 30, 2026 — a four-year high — before easing back to about $115, comfortably inside the June 30, 2026 deadline.","https://www.hirschmaninc.com/10424-2/","research"],[5523,"Tulsi Gabbard announced her resignation as Director of National Intelligence on May 22, 2026, effective June 30, 2026, citing her husband Abraham's rare bone cancer diagnosis; Trump named Aaron Lukas acting DNI.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/22/tulsi-gabbard-resigns-director-national-intelligence/","research"],[5243,"Following Joe Kent's March 17, 2026 resignation as NCTC director over the Iran war, it was publicly reported that the FBI is conducting a criminal leak investigation into Kent over alleged disclosure of classified information; DNI Tulsi Gabbard was reportedly unaware of the probe.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/fbi-investigating-former-trump-official-joe-kent-resigned-iran-war-rcna264232","research"],[5240,"Support rose above the mid-March level in a subsequent national poll. The March 2026 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll had 51% supporting the US-Israel strikes and 54% calling them justified; the May 2026 Harvard CAPS/Harris poll (fielded April 23-26) found 57% saying the strikes were justified, up 3 points from April, with 72% saying the US was winning. Support later collapsed (Reuters/Ipsos 33% in late July), but the claim that March was the peak was falsified. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Falsified by only ~3 points on a differently-worded 'justified' question (54%→57%) against a stated ~50% ceiling, and support then collapsed to 33% — a narrow numeric miss on a substantively right call.","https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/business-and-professional-services/may-harvard-caps-%2F-harris-poll-trump-approval-steady-at-43-with-1172852","research"],[5238,"On April 15, 2026 the USS Gerald R. Ford reached its 296th day at sea, breaking the post-Vietnam US carrier deployment record of 295 days set by the USS Abraham Lincoln in January 2020. The deployment supported Operation Epic Fury against Iran and had been extended twice.","https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2026/04/15/uss-gerald-r-ford-breaks-record-for-longest-post-vietnam-deployment/","research"],[4800,"No CIA/IC release of previously withheld 2020 election-interference documents to John Solomon occurred by March 31, 2026. Just the News's March 16, 2026 China/voter-data story rested on an April 2020 National Intelligence Council memo that the Biden administration had declassified back in 2022. The first newly declassified document Just the News obtained was published April 20-21, 2026 (declassified by DNI Tulsi Gabbard), and the main CIA/Ratcliffe tranche came July 16, 2026 alongside Trump's primetime address.","https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/us-intel-flagged-major-2020-election-vulnerabilities-including-voter","research"],[3779,"Despite the nominal 8 April ceasefire, US forces struck Iran on 7 May 2026 (military sites in southern Iran and Tehran) and again on 25-26 May 2026 (missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz); hostilities continued into June and July 2026, so active US military hostilities were still ongoing as of 31 May 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/world/live-news/iran-war-us-peace-deal","research"],[3226,"The US national average gasoline price peaked at $4.55 on May 21, 2026 (up from $2.96 pre-war) and never reached $5.00, falling back to about $3.81 by July - satisfying the stay-below-$5.00-through-mid-2026 criteria despite JPMorgan warnings it could top $5.","https://forecast.eller.arizona.edu/news/hormuz-crisis-and-gasoline-prices-how-does-2026-compare","research"],[5237,"As of July 2026 Israel still holds the seized southern Lebanon strip (570-600 sq km) and bars the return of over 1.2 million displaced Lebanese; on June 24, 2026 Israeli officials said 200,000 residents will not return and Katz said forces will not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demands it, while Netanyahu said on June 15 Israel will stay in the buffer zone 'as long as necessary' and on July 5 claimed some villages asked to be annexed.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_occupation_of_Southern_Lebanon_(2026)","research"],[5235,"Iran's cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz came packaged with US concessions, not an unconditional stand-down: the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed June 17, 2026 committed the US (Paragraph 10) to issue Treasury waivers for export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and all associated banking, insurance and transport services, and to lift the US naval blockade. The US rescinded Iran's oil sales license on July 7, 2026, and the ceasefire broke down.","https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260625-new-iran-authorization-implements-memorandum-of-understanding","research"],[4797,"The Houthis re-entered the conflict as part of the 2026 Iran war, resuming strikes on 28 March 2026 with a ballistic missile at Beersheba and cruise missiles/UAVs at Eilat, followed by attacks on 30 March and 1, 2, 4 and 6 April targeting Ben Gurion Airport and Israeli military sites, and on 8 June announcing a total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Houthi_strikes_on_Israel","research"],[4796,"No US presidential state visit to China occurred during April 2026; the trip was postponed because of the Iran war and Trump's Beijing state visit actually took place 13-15 May 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_state_visit_by_Donald_Trump_to_China","research"],[5234,"Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon on March 16, 2026 and now occupies roughly 570-600 sq km of Lebanese territory; on March 24, 2026 Defense Minister Israel Katz declared Israel would demolish border villages and permanently occupy Lebanese territory up to the Litani River, and Netanyahu ordered the invasion expanded on March 29. IDF forces crossed the Litani itself in a May 2-12, 2026 operation.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/netanyahu-announces-expansion-of-security-buffer-zone-in-south-lebanon","research"],[5233,"Trump declared 'total and complete victory' and Hegseth declared a decisive victory, but Iran did not cease attacks: Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 citing the US blockade, IRGC forces struck vessels near Oman on July 7 and hit two supertankers plus ADNOC tankers on July 12-13, and Iran suspended its Islamabad Memorandum commitments on July 18 with fighting ongoing.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[4794,"The state visit did not go ahead as scheduled; Wikipedia records that it \"was postponed to May due to the 2026 Iran war,\" and the visit took place 13-15 May 2026 rather than in April. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The state visit did go ahead despite the Iran war, only pushed ~2 weeks past the April window to May 13-15.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_state_visit_by_Donald_Trump_to_China","research"],[7999,"As of March 12, 2026 the U.S. Navy had not escorted any tanker through the Strait of Hormuz; Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy was 'not ready' with all assets focused on strikes, and no escort mission had launched by the March 20 deadline. The first actual escorted transit did not occur until May 5, 2026, when the Alliance Fairfax exited the Gulf via the Strait accompanied by U.S. military assets under the later-named 'Project Freedom' operation -- 46 days after the deadline.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/energy-secretary-wright-says-us-not-ready-to-escort-tankers-through-strait-of-hormuz-yet.html","research"],[7998,"Sinners did not win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards; Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another was announced as Best Picture winner, though Sinners' Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor.","https://www.npr.org/2026/03/15/nx-s1-5739287/oscars-2026-winners-list-best-picture-actor-actress","research"],[6235,"As of 2026-08-08 Israel has not withdrawn from any occupied southern Lebanese territory, holding ~570-600 sq km after displacing more than 1.2 million Lebanese (over 20% of the population); Defense Minister Katz said on 2026-06-24 that Israeli forces would not withdraw 'even if the United States demands it,' and the June framework agreement lets Israel remain in most of the area while Hezbollah is undisarmed.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_occupation_of_Southern_Lebanon_(2026)","research"],[5727,"Republican Clay Fuller defeated Democrat Shawn Harris in the 2026-04-07 Georgia 14th district special-election runoff for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, winning by about 11.8 points.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-special-elections/georgia-house-runoff-results","research"],[5229,"Airstrikes alone never reopened the Strait. It stayed shut through the March air campaign; partial transits resumed April 8 only via the ceasefire, Iran re-closed it April 18, and real traffic returned only after the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum when the US Navy lifted its blockade and Iran agreed to toll-free transits. By 31 July 2026 only 5 vessels transited in 24 hours against a ~140/day pre-crisis baseline.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/iran-oil-tanker-traffic-strait-hormuz-gulf-vlcc.html","research"],[4791,"The Beijing state visit originally set for April 2026 was postponed because of the Iran war; Trump did not travel to China by 30 April 2026. He met Xi Jinping in Beijing on 13-15 May 2026, outside the prediction's window. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Trump did travel to Beijing and meet Xi, just 13 days past the April 30 window (May 13-15) - substantive call right, narrow timing miss.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_state_visit_by_Donald_Trump_to_China","research"],[4789,"On 13 March 2026 an Italian foreign ministry source publicly denied the FT report, saying there is \"no under-the-table negotiation aimed at preserving only some merchant ships at the expense of others,\" and French officials likewise said there were no secret Iran talks, only work on a multinational Hormuz escort coalition.","https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/france-italy-open-talks-iran-125458405.html","research"],[3752,"At its March 17-18, 2026 meeting — the next FOMC meeting after the March 13 claim — the Committee voted 11-1 to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with no intermeeting cut.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260318.htm","research"],[3751,"The US military announced on March 13, 2026 that all six crew members aboard the KC-135 refueling aircraft that went down in Iraq were killed; none were recovered alive.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/us-kc135-crash-iraq-iran-threats-shipping-attacks.html","research"],[6710,"The SAVE America Act failed in the Senate three separate times after this 12 March 2026 prediction: debate was cut off and the bill stalled in April 2026, four Senate Republicans joined Democrats to block it in June 2026, and a truncated version drew only 52 votes - short of the 60-vote threshold - before the Senate recessed in early August 2026. It has not been enacted into law.","https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/voters-spared-as-senate-recesses-without-passing-save-america-acts-voter-id-measure/","research"],[6534,"The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security on March 23, 2026 by a 54-45 vote (52 Republicans plus Democrats Fetterman and Heinrich), replacing Kristi Noem; DHS announced his swearing-in March 24.","https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/03/24/us-senate-confirms-markwayne-mullin-secretary-department-homeland-security","research"],[6230,"Iran did accept a negotiated halt: on 2026-04-08 the US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire halting 40 days of US-Israeli attacks, and it was extended indefinitely on 2026-04-21. Iran did not simply refuse and keep fighting, contrary to the claim made 2026-03-12.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next","research"],[5225,"The IDF launched ground operations into southern Lebanon on March 16, 2026 — four days after the March 12 statement — mobilizing the 162nd Division in an operation compared to the Gaza invasion, with the Battle of Khiam, Battle of Bint Jbeil and an Israeli crossing of the Litani River. On March 24 Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the IDF would occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Lebanon_war","research"],[5223,"In the signed June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, Point 6 states the United States 'undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran' — reporting characterized this as Iran's reparations demand rebranded as reconstruction/development funding. No money was disbursed before the MoU collapsed on July 8-18. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Substantive call held — no reparations or compensation were ever paid to Iran; the miss rests narrowly on an MOU undertaking to 'develop a plan' with regional partners that collapsed July 8 before any money moved.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Memorandum","research"],[5222,"A ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran took effect on April 8, 2026 — 27 days after the 2026-03-12 statement — mediated by Pakistan for an initial two weeks, later extended indefinitely by Trump on April 21 and formalized in the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[4787,"Senate floor consideration of the House message to S.1383 (SAVE America Act) spanned multiple days in the second half of March 2026: a cloture vote on the Tuberville-Blackburn amendment #4421 failed 49-41 on Saturday 21 March, the Senate resumed consideration with Leader Thune speaking on 22 March, and cloture on the Husted amendment #4732 failed 53-47 on 26 March before the bill was abandoned on 27 March.","https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/thursday-march-26-2026/","research"],[3749,"The Strait of Hormuz stayed closed through May 2026: CNN reported on June 2, 2026 that it had been '94 days of paralysis' with traffic still choked off, and in early May open transits were near zero per day versus ~138 vessels daily pre-war, with 1,550+ ships stranded. It only began reopening after the mid-June US-Iran deal.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/02/business/strait-of-hormuz-ship-traffic","research"],[3748,"A US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect on April 8, 2026 — well before the end of May — and Trump extended it indefinitely on April 21, 2026. Although it was repeatedly violated and later collapsed on July 8, a ceasefire did take effect inside the window. | RE-ADJUDICATED YES (ceasefire-rule review 2026-08-08): Rule 2 case: graded NO because the April 8 ceasefire was treated as ending the war, but it collapsed July 8 with fighting ongoing, so 'the war will not end in the near term' was correct.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[3747,"Brent spot averaged about $117.29/bbl in April 2026, roughly $107 in May, and $85 in June — an April-June average near $103/bbl, above $90 and above the ~$90-plus official forecast. EIA also raised its 2026 oil price outlook by 36% after the war began.","https://www.statista.com/statistics/262861/uk-brent-crude-oil-monthly-price-development/","research"],[3746,"On April 7, 2026 CISA and federal partners issued a joint advisory warning of ongoing Iranian-affiliated cyber activity against US critical infrastructure across energy, water, healthcare and manufacturing, attributing disruption of PLC operations at multiple US critical-infrastructure entities to an Iranian-linked APT group — an expansion well beyond the March Stryker hack and within three months of March 2026.","https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/07/iranian-hackers-are-targeting-american-critical-infrastructure-u-s-agencies-warn/","research"],[3743,"EIA’s weekly U.S. regular all-formulations gasoline price rose from $3.990 per gallon on March 30 to $4.120 on April 6, first reaching the $4 threshold within the frozen window.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=w&n=pet&s=emm_epmr_pte_nus_dpg","research"],[3739,"Brent traded just above $100/bbl on 2026-03-12 when DOE announced the 172-million-barrel SPR release (part of a coordinated 400M-bbl IEA action). At the end of the ~120-day release window Brent was $85.92 on 2026-07-15 and $84.64 on 2026-07-16 — roughly 15% materially LOWER than at announcement, not higher. Prices did spike to ~$126 intraday on Apr 30 but then fell to $68-72 (WTI) by July 1 before a partial rebound.","https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-07-15-2026/","research"],[6238,"The acknowledged toll rose from 7 to 18 US troops killed in the Pentagon's DCAS database by 2026-08-04, and The Intercept documented deaths missing from the official count - including Maj. Sorffly Davius, who died on duty in Kuwait on 2026-03-06, before Kasparian's claim - with a US defense official calling the Pentagon's reclassification a 'casualty cover-up'; House Oversight Democrats opened an inquiry into the database changes on 2026-08-04.","https://theintercept.com/2026/08/04/us-military-casualties-count-iran-war/","research"],[6236,"A Reuters/Ipsos poll released 2026-07-31 found just 33% of Americans approve of the US war on Iran versus 62% disapproving - below the 41% threshold and the lowest of the conflict; Military Times contrasted it with roughly 70% early support for the Iraq war and about 90% for Afghanistan, making it a record low for a US war.","https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/07/31/just-one-in-three-americans-back-iran-war-most-unsure-of-trumps-goals-poll-finds/","research"],[3217,"A ceasefire was agreed April 8, 2026 and direct US-Iran negotiations took place in Islamabad on April 11-12 between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reported as the highest-level direct US-Iran engagement since 1979 - inside the April 30 window.","https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12678/IN12678.5.pdf","research"],[3216,"Strikes did not wind down within 7-14 days of March 11: a new aerial campaign over the Strait of Hormuz began March 19 and full-scale operations continued roughly four more weeks until the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire of April 8, 2026, well past the ~March 25 window. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Narrow timing miss: he called continued strikes for another 1-2 weeks followed by a wind-down, and the campaign in fact paused at the April 8 ceasefire - exactly 14 days past the ~March 25 window, at the edge of the two-week tolerance.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_campaign","research"],[7333,"On March 20, 2026 a federal jury found Musk liable for defrauding Twitter investors over his 2022 statements, awarding roughly $2.1 billion in damages, and in July 2026 the judge rejected his bid to set the verdict aside.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/20/elon-musk-determined-to-be-liable-for-misleading-twitter-investors.html","research"],[7332,"By the early-April 2026 deadline no group of major CEOs publicly backed Anthropic or refused administration demands; Anthropic sued the administration alone in March 2026 over the Pentagon supply-chain-risk designation, and reporting notes other tech leaders chose accommodation rather than public solidarity.","https://www.npr.org/2026/03/09/nx-s1-5742548/anthropic-pentagon-lawsuit-amodai-hegseth","research"],[5726,"Within the window Trump declared the war won on 2026-03-24 (\"This war has been won\") and again on 2026-04-06 (\"We are the winner. We won.\"), and on 2026-04-08 announced a US-Iran ceasefire while claiming victory.","https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/trump-said-the-iran-war-was-won-in-march-april-may-june-and-this-weekend-today-senate-democrats-force-ninth-vote-to-end-it","research"],[5221,"Iran did agree to a halt of hostilities within the weeks after 2026-03-10: the US and Iran agreed on April 7-8, 2026 to a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire that also covered Israel, and Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz under it. (The ceasefire was violated almost immediately and fighting later fully resumed on July 8, but Iran did agree.) | RE-ADJUDICATED YES (ceasefire-rule review 2026-08-08): Rule 2: graded NO solely because the April 7-8 ceasefire was treated as Iran agreeing to end the war, but the ceasefire collapsed July 8 and the war is ongoing — Iran never agreed to end the war, so the claim came true.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[4784,"The Virginia redistricting referendum was held as scheduled on 21 April 2026 and passed 50.7%-49.3% of about 2.5 million ballots; no Virginia court order halted or invalidated it beforehand (the Virginia Supreme Court nullified the referendum and map later, on 8 May 2026).","https://virginiamercury.com/2026/04/21/virginia-voters-back-redistricting-amendment-after-months-of-legal-and-political-battles/","research"],[3210,"The joint US-Israeli campaign that began February 28, 2026 did not wind down by March 14; it evolved into sustained large-scale air operations across Iran (hundreds of strikes in at least 26 of 31 provinces), a new aerial campaign over the Strait of Hormuz began March 19, and intensive strikes continued until the April 8 ceasefire.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next","research"],[7997,"Human correction approved August 12, 2026. AP reported on August 10 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal had collapsed and the regional war was expanding, confirming that the campaign did not end within the forecast window. Near-miss credit is removed because the quote's vague phrase 'within the next few weeks' did not establish an explicit preregistered calendar deadline, and the temporary April ceasefire did not end the war.","https://apnews.com/article/a8a0e282a17c13a1e528e7ca73f17c5e","research"],[5986,"EIA weekly US regular gasoline averaged $2.937 on 2/23/26 and $3.015 on 3/2/26 (pre-conflict/early-March level). It never returned to that level by June 30, 2026: it peaked at $4.500 on 5/11/26 and the lowest June reading was $3.831 on 6/29/26.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","research"],[5985,"Active US/Israeli operations against Iran continued well past the end of March 2026. Israel began a limited ground invasion of Lebanon on March 17 and Defense Minister Katz announced plans to occupy southern Lebanon to the Litani on March 24; the US and Iran did not agree to a (two-week, conditional) ceasefire until April 7-8, 2026, more than five weeks into the war, and fighting resumed in July 2026.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[5725,"EIA weekly national average rose above the 2026-03-09 level of $3.502/gal in every subsequent week through April: $3.720 (3/16), $3.961 (3/23), $3.990 (3/30), $4.120 (4/06), $4.123 (4/13), $4.123 (4/27).","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","research"],[5724,"Trump repeatedly declared victory in 2026: on 2026-03-24 he said Iran was \"totally defeated\" and \"This war has been won,\" and on 2026-04-06 he said \"We are the winner. We won.\"","https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-declares-iran-war-won-more-troops-1235536650/","research"],[5723,"Trump announced a two-week conditional US-Iran ceasefire on 2026-04-08 (\"a big day for World Peace\"), and in mid-June 2026 the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to cease fighting, lift the US naval blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz — both within 2026 and both qualifying as an announced end/ceasefire.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/trump-says-ceasefire-over-after-us-iran-trade-attacks","research"],[3442,"'Sentimental Value' won the Oscar for Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026, the first Norwegian feature to win the category.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/arts/heres-a-full-list-of-2026-academy-awards-winners","research"],[3441,"Panahi's 'It Was Just an Accident' did not win Best International Feature at the March 15, 2026 Oscars; the award went to Norway's 'Sentimental Value'.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/arts/heres-a-full-list-of-2026-academy-awards-winners","research"],[4781,"The 2026 Iran war began 28 Feb 2026 and no ceasefire, off-ramp or wind-down existed on 10 March 2026; the first pause (a two-week ceasefire brokered via Pakistan) did not commence until 8 April 2026, a month after the deadline.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[3723,"BLS headline CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year for May 2026 (released June 10, 2026), the highest since April 2023, driven by energy up 23.5% y/y and gasoline up 40.5% y/y amid the Iran war. April 2026 was 3.8%, so the May print alone satisfies the 'above 4.0% for April or May' test.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html","research"],[3722,"On Monday March 9, 2026 — the first trading day after March 8 — the S&P 500 closed UP 0.83% at 6,795.99, the Dow rose 239.25 points to 47,740.80 and the Nasdaq gained 1.38%, reversing an intraday drop of nearly 900 Dow points after Trump said the Iran war could be nearing its end. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Markets did fall sharply on reopening - the Dow was down nearly 900 points intraday - and only reversed to a green close on fresh news that the war might be ending, so the substantive call was right and the miss (close vs. reopen) is narrow.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html","research"],[6706,"EA never announced or executed a shutdown of the online servers for the 2025 free-to-play 'skate.' release by early April 2026. The game remained live throughout the window and beyond, running its published Early Access seasonal roadmap (Season 3 shipped Feb/Mar 2026) and still online and playable as of August 2026, with a full launch still planned for 2026.","https://www.pcgamesn.com/skate-4/server-status","research"],[3721,"After the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum opening a 60-day negotiating window, Trump told Axios on June 19, 2026 that the deal 'probably is unconditional surrender' and that the US had 'defeated them totally militarily' — Iran never formally surrendered, and Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' three weeks later on July 8.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/trump-claims-iran-deal-is-unconditional-surrender-axios-.html","research"],[3720,"US military deaths in the Iran war rose from 6 in early March 2026 to 13-18 by late July 2026 (the Pentagon's official toll was listed at 18 before four recent deaths were reclassified into an 'Overseas Operations' category, leaving 14 in the Iran war count), including two killed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan on July 17.","https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/07/27/pentagon-moves-recent-kia-numbers-from-iran-war-into-overseas-operations-category/","research"],[7328,"No wave of CEO pushback materialized by early April 2026: reporting through June 2026 describes Anthropic as standing alone against the administration after its Feb. 27 Pentagon blacklisting, while Zuckerberg, Bezos and Cook pursued accommodation (donations, loyalist board appointments, policy changes) and OpenAI accepted the Pentagon 'any lawful purpose' language.","https://fortune.com/2026/06/30/anthropic-clash-with-u-s-government-shows-its-failure-to-play-by-trump-administration-playbook/","research"],[7325,"Trump fired Pam Bondi as attorney general on April 2, 2026, replacing her with Deputy AG Todd Blanche; the ouster came about a month after Kristi Noem's firing, matching the 'next humiliation' call.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/bondi-fired-attorney-general-trump-rcna266378","research"],[6225,"Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon and pushed past the Litani River on 2026-05-31; as of 2026-08-08 Israeli forces occupy roughly 570-600 sq km of southern Lebanon, covering the evacuated zone, after Israel issued displacement orders across ~2,000 sq km south of the Zahrani River. Netanyahu said on 6/15 forces 'will stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as necessary.'","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_occupation_of_Southern_Lebanon_(2026)","research"],[5981,"Jon Bonck defeated Shelly deZevallos in the Republican primary runoff for Texas' 38th Congressional District on May 26, 2026, winning roughly 65% to 35%.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-19th-38th-congressional-district-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[5978,"The recorded roll call on March 23, 2026 was 54-45, not 54-46. 52 Republicans plus Democrats Fetterman and Heinrich voted yes; the 45 no votes were 44 Democrats plus Republican Rand Paul, and Sen. Gallego did not vote — so 44 Democrats voted no, not 46. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Predicted 54-46, actual 54-45 - the yes count was exact and the no count off by one absent senator (~2%), well inside the 10% band.","https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00063.htm","research"],[5977,"The Senate confirmed Markwayne Mullin as Secretary of Homeland Security on March 23, 2026 by a vote of 54-45; he was sworn in by President Trump on March 24, 2026, replacing Kristi Noem.","https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00063.htm","research"],[4498,"Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed Virginia's Mask/Identity Law (SB 352 / HB 1482) on May 20, 2026, effective July 1; DOJ sued on June 19, and on July 1, 2026 U.S. District Judge Robert Payne enjoined the statute as applied to federal immigration officers, holding it directly regulates federal law enforcement in violation of the Supremacy Clause — exactly the outcome Kelly described, so the provision is blocked and unenforced against ICE.","https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jul/1/judge-blocks-virginias-anti-ice-law-banning-agents-wearing-masks-duty/","research"],[3718,"DHS confirmed on March 28, 2026 that Corey Lewandowski had departed the department following Secretary Kristi Noem's firing; a spokesperson said he no longer has a role at DHS.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/homeland-security-corey-lewandowski-left-job-noem-rcna265625","research"],[3714,"The US national average went from $2.98 on February 26, 2026 to $4.08 on April 2, 2026, crossing $3.50/gallon in mid-March 2026 en route — a $1.08 one-month increase per AAA.","https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/04/for-the-first-time-in-four-years-national-average-exceeds-4-gallon/","research"],[6701,"Gonzales suspended his campaign on March 5, 2026 under pressure from GOP leaders, the May 26 runoff was canceled, and Brandon Herrera advanced to the general election as the Republican nominee for TX-23 — the outcome Tim predicted, and for the reason he cited (mounting Republican pressure/investigations of Gonzales).","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_23rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(May_26_Republican_primary_runoff)","research"],[6222,"The opening-phase toll did exceed the six acknowledged in early March: a seventh death, Benjamin Pennington, was announced March 9 after he died of wounds from the same March 1 Kuwait attack, and Maj. Sorffly Davius, who died on duty at Camp Buehring on March 6, was omitted from the Pentagon tally entirely. The Intercept documented a sustained Pentagon undercount of Iran war dead and wounded (April 8 and Aug 4, 2026 reports), and the Pentagon later confirmed to CBS that dozens of earlier injuries had gone undisclosed.","https://theintercept.com/2026/08/04/us-military-casualties-count-iran-war/","research"],[5211,"Both House roll calls on Iran war measures show exactly four Republicans voting to end the war, with Thomas Massie among them: 3 June 2026 (215-208; Massie, Fitzpatrick, Barrett, Davidson) and 23 July 2026 on H Con Res 89 (214-208; the same four). Four is within the 'five or fewer' threshold.","https://rollcall.com/2026/07/23/23warpowersvote/","research"],[5210,"The window closed 5 June 2026 and US combat operations against Iran were plainly still ongoing. The House voted 215-208 on 3 June 2026 on a resolution directing Trump to end hostilities with Iran, and US strikes on Iranian targets continued through the spring (7 May, 25 May) and again on 27 June 2026, with Iran's IRGC striking US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain in response.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/27/nx-s1-5872954/us-strikes-iran","research"],[4776,"The planned April 2026 Trump-Xi summit did not take place. Trump requested a delay on March 16, 2026 because of the Iran war, the White House said on March 18 that China had agreed to postpone, and the meeting was moved to May 14-15, 2026 in Beijing.","https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/trump-to-visit-xi-jinping-in-china-on-may-14-and-15-after-iran-war-delay","research"],[3707,"BLS published the next scheduled CPI report on time: the February 2026 CPI was released March 11, 2026 (2.4% year-over-year), and subsequent reports followed on schedule through the June 2026 CPI released July 14, 2026. No CPI release was withheld or delayed on war grounds before the 2026-06-30 deadline.","https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/consumer-prices-up-2-4-percent-over-year-ended-february-2026.htm","research"],[3705,"The March 2026 CPI (released April 10) jumped to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs and the largest monthly gain in years (+0.9%); the April 2026 CPI (released May 12) rose further to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-report-march-2026.html","research"],[3704,"A US-Iran ceasefire was announced April 8, 2026 and took effect, brokered by Pakistan, with Trump calling it 'a big day for world peace' and the UN Secretary-General welcoming it; negotiations proceeded on Iran's 10-point plan. The truce was in place well before the April 30, 2026 deadline.","https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167264","research"],[3439,"At the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2026, Jafar Panahi's film won neither award: Best International Feature went to Norway's 'Sentimental Value' and Best Original Screenplay went to Ryan Coogler for 'Sinners'.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/arts/heres-a-full-list-of-2026-academy-awards-winners","research"],[3203,"Post-campaign assessments do not report complete destruction: the June 2026 ISIS analysis of IAEA reporting finds Iran's enrichment infrastructure severely degraded but not eliminated, with ~440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium unaccounted for and uncertainty about undeployed centrifuges and covert capability. The 'no remaining enrichment capability' standard is not met.","https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/analysis-of-iaea-iran-verification-and-monitoring-and-npt-safeguards-reports-june-2026","research"],[7995,"Human verdict correction approved August 12, 2026. The prediction expressly said the U.S.-Iran war would last days or weeks and would not be months long. AP reported on August 10 that the ceasefire deal had collapsed and the expanding regional war continued more than five months after the February 28 opening attacks, so the claim as stated was incorrect.","https://apnews.com/article/a8a0e282a17c13a1e528e7ca73f17c5e","research"],[6700,"Certified March 3, 2026 TX-23 Republican primary results show Brandon Herrera first with 43.3% (23,932 votes) ahead of incumbent Tony Gonzales at 41.8% (23,073), with Keith Barton 8.5% and Francisco Canseco 6.4% of 55,263 total votes. Election-night partial counts had briefly shown Gonzales leading, but the certified canvass has Herrera on top.","https://ballotpedia.org/Texas'_23rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(March_3_Republican_primary)","research"],[6220,"The White House formally requested an $87.6 billion supplemental appropriation from Congress on June 24, 2026 (OMB Director Russell Vought's letter to Speaker Johnson), with about one-third driven by Iran war costs; House Republicans then unveiled a $95 billion supplemental package in July 2026. Hegseth had signaled a Pentagon ask of at least $200 billion back in March 2026.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/24/iran-war-supplemental-trump-congress.html","research"],[5509,"Turnout fell sharply: roughly 2.16 million Republicans voted in the March 3, 2026 primary versus about 1.38 million votes cast in the May 26 Republican US Senate runoff — roughly 800,000 fewer, not higher.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[4773,"No joint U.S.-Arab combined offensive assault on Iran was carried out by ~March 6, 2026. Gulf states' posture through late March 2026 remained supportive/defensive; the UAE's own strikes on Iran (e.g., the Lavan Island refinery) were reported only in early April 2026, and Saudi Arabia did not join U.S. strikes until late July 2026.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/07/28/us-says-it-shot-down-iranian-missiles-targeting-troops-middle-east/","research"],[4495,"In the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff, Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn with 63.8% of more than 1.38 million votes — the first primary defeat of a sitting Texas U.S. senator since 1970.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/26/texas-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-us-senate-republican-primary-runoff/","research"],[7322,"Judge Rita Lin granted Anthropic a sweeping preliminary injunction on 2026-03-26, finding it likely to succeed and calling the Pentagon's action 'classic illegal First Amendment retaliation,' barring the 17 defendant agencies from implementing the supply-chain-risk designation; on 2026-07-30 she signaled she is likely to permanently block the label. A DC Circuit panel separately denied Anthropic a stay, and final judgment is still pending.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-pentagon-dod-claude-court-ruling.html","research"],[6218,"US military fatalities rose well past six: a seventh death (Benjamin Pennington) was announced March 9, 2026, and CENTCOM announced six more on March 13 after a March 12 aircraft crash in Iraq, bringing the total to 13 by mid-March. TIME reported 18 US service members killed as of July 20, 2026.","https://time.com/article/2026/07/20/us-service-members-killed-wounded-iran-war-casualties/","research"],[6217,"Combat ran well past five weeks from the Feb 28, 2026 start (five weeks would end April 4). Sustained fighting continued 40 days until the April 8, 2026 ceasefire, Operation Epic Fury formally concluded May 5, and hostilities resumed thereafter — Iranian missiles and drones killed two US service members at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan on July 17, 2026.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[6216,"Israel launched a full ground invasion of southern Lebanon in March 2026, announcing a 'targeted ground operation' on March 16 and expanding it with Division 162 on March 26. The offensive left Israel controlling roughly 20% of Lebanese territory with over one million Lebanese displaced, and Israeli forces remained entrenched with operations expanding again on May 27, 2026.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/israel-sends-more-troops-into-southern-lebanon-as-ground-invasion-expands","research"],[5719,"EIA weekly U.S. regular all-formulations retail gasoline average went from $3.015/gal on 2026-03-02 to $3.502/gal on 2026-03-09, a jump of 48.7 cents in the week following the claim — far above the 10-cent threshold in the criteria.","https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","research"],[5206,"The criterion (national polling showing a majority of self-identified Republicans supporting the military action) was met well inside the 30 September 2026 window. Marist, fielded 2-4 March 2026, found 84% of Republicans strongly support or support US military involvement; Pew in late March found 69% of Republicans and Republican leaners approving; and a later Reuters/Ipsos survey still showed roughly 71% Republican approval even as overall approval fell to 33%.","https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/war-with-iran-march-2026/","research"],[4772,"The Senate did take up the SAVE America Act on the floor: a cloture motion on the Husted amendment to the House message on S.1383 (SAVE America Act) failed 53-47 on March 26, 2026, and the Senate voted on the measure again on June 4, 2026, where it failed. Floor consideration therefore occurred.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/04/nx-s1-5751145/save-act-senate-vote-trump","research"],[3700,"Under Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran agreed a US-Iran deal announced June 14, 2026 and signed as a 14-point MOU in Geneva on/around June 17-19: a 60-day ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, an Iranian pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons, and sanctions relief plus access to frozen assets. Iran also accepted an earlier April 8 ceasefire and, per July reporting, requested continued talks with Washington.","https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-and-iran-announce-deal-end-war-state-play","research"],[3699,"CENTCOM reported on March 8 that a service member died the previous night, becoming the seventh service member killed in action during Operation Epic Fury. This exceeded the frozen threshold of six.","https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4428143/operation-epic-fury-update/","research"],[3698,"Iran's Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei — a mid-ranking cleric with deep IRGC ties, long linked to the crackdown on protesters — as Supreme Leader effective March 8, 2026, within the window. Coverage widely framed him as more hardline than his father, with experts calling him 'his father on steroids' and the Atlantic Council describing ties to the most ideologically extremist clerics.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2","research"],[3697,"CENTCOM data reported April 8, 2026 put Operation Epic Fury losses at 13 US service members killed and 381 wounded, up from six as of March 3. Deaths after March 3 include Army Sgt. Benjamin Pennington (died March 8 of wounds from the March 1 Prince Sultan Air Base strike) and four KC-135 crew killed in a March 13, 2026 crash supporting operations.","https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/pentagon-data-13-us-troops-killed-346-wounded-in-operation-epic-fury/","research"],[6528,"Ken Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff to become the GOP nominee — the first Texas Republican senator to lose renomination — within the May 31, 2026 window.","https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/05/27/ken-paxton-r-defeated-incumbent-john-cornyn-r-in-the-republican-primary-runoff-for-u-s-senate-in-texas-on-may-26-2026/","research"],[6527,"In the March 3, 2026 Texas GOP Senate primary, John Cornyn took ~43% and Ken Paxton ~41%, with Wesley Hunt third at ~13%; no candidate cleared 50%, sending Cornyn and Paxton to a May 26 runoff exactly as predicted.","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2026","research"],[5975,"No US or allied mine countermeasure vessels operated in the Strait of Hormuz during March 2026. As of March 16, 2026 the three Bahrain-homeported MCM-capable Independence-class LCSs (Canberra, Santa Barbara, Tulsa) were in the Indian Ocean and Malaysia, and Defense Secretary Hegseth said there was 'no clear evidence' of mines; CENTCOM did not begin setting conditions for mine clearance in the strait until April 11, 2026, and the Avenger-class minesweepers USS Chief and USS Pioneer were only spotted transiting toward the Gulf in mid-April. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The called event happened just outside the March window: CENTCOM opened the Strait of Hormuz mine-clearance mission on April 11, 2026 and the Avenger-class minesweepers deployed from Asia April 10-16, roughly two weeks late.","https://news.usni.org/2026/04/11/two-u-s-warships-sail-through-strait-of-hormuz-to-establish-new-route-for-merchant-ships","research"],[5973,"The FBI's May 7, 2026 findings on the March 1 Buford's/West Sixth Street shooting concluded gunman Ndiaga Diagne acted alone with no affiliation with or support from any foreign terrorist organization, and characterized the attack as 'impulsive,' driven by personal triggers tied to the Iran war. Authorities did not conclude it was an act of terrorism, and Diagne was killed by police so no terrorism charges were filed.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/05/07/austin-bufords-shooting-march-2026-terrorism-gunman/","research"],[5710,"Trump repeatedly declared the Iran war won or ended, including 'this war has been won' (March 24, 2026), 'We are the winner. We won' (April 6, 2026), and explicitly 'we ended the war with Iran today' on June 11, 2026 — before the June 30, 2026 deadline.","https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/trump-said-the-iran-war-was-won-in-march-april-may-june-and-this-weekend-today-senate-democrats-force-ninth-vote-to-end-it","research"],[5709,"Major U.S. combat operations did not end within three to four weeks of March 2, 2026: the U.S. launched a new aerial campaign against Iran on March 19 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a ceasefire came only on April 8, a naval blockade followed in late April, and strikes resumed after the ceasefire framework collapsed in early July 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5201,"Within the window, every Iran war powers vote showed all but a handful of Republicans siding with the war. Senate Republicans blocked a war powers resolution on 5 March 2026; the House passed H Con Res on 3 June 2026 by 215-208 with only four Republicans (Massie, Fitzpatrick, Barrett, Davidson) crossing over; and the Senate passed its version 50-48 on 24 June 2026 with only four Republicans (Cassidy, Collins, Paul, Murkowski) in favor.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/03/politics/house-iran-war-powers-vote","research"],[5200,"The claim required no major national poll after 2026-03-02 to show support above roughly 34%. The Marist national poll fielded 2-4 March 2026 found 44% of Americans strongly support or support US military action in Iran, ten points above the ceiling. Late-March Fox News polling likewise showed 58% opposed (roughly 40% support), and Pew found 69% of Republicans and Republican leaners approving of Trump's handling.","https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/war-with-iran-march-2026/","research"],[4769,"No Trump-Xi state visit occurred in April 2026. Trump's March 31-April 2 Beijing summit was postponed: he asked for a delay on March 16 citing the Iran war, China agreed on March 18, and the trip was rescheduled to May 14-15, 2026.","https://aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/25/trump-to-visit-xi-jinping-in-china-on-may-14-and-15-after-iran-war-delay","research"],[3198,"Major combat operations under Operation Epic Fury (begun Feb 28, 2026) were halted by a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire on April 8 that Trump extended indefinitely on April 21, and the operation formally concluded May 5, 2026 - within the mid-2026 window. Sporadic strikes and a naval blockade have continued afterward, but the main campaign was ceasefired/ended by mid-2026 as the criteria specify.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[7993,"The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7-8, 2026, which Trump extended indefinitely on April 21, so by May 1, 2026 the sustained offensive campaign underway on March 1 had materially de-escalated (the ceasefire held until it broke down in July 2026).","https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-iran-war-trump-deadline-hormuz-infrastructure-ceasefire-rcna267039","research"],[6210,"The US launched Operation Epic Fury, a joint campaign with Israel against Iran, on February 28, 2026 — within the 2026-03 window. The opening salvo killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggered hundreds of Iranian retaliatory missiles.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[5196,"Operation Epic Fury ran 38 days, from February 28 to April 8, 2026 - far more than three consecutive weeks. DoD published a 'First 24 Days' fact sheet on March 23, 2026, and CENTCOM reported over 10,000 targets struck as of March 25, 2026, before Iran agreed to a ceasefire on April 8.","https://media.defense.gov/2026/Mar/23/2003902061/-1/-1/1/OPERATION-EPIC-FURY-FACT-SHEET-THE-FIRST-24-DAYS.PDF","research"],[4767,"At least three statewide Texas GOP primaries on March 3, 2026 went to May 26 runoffs: U.S. Senate (Cornyn 42% / Paxton 41%), Attorney General (Middleton 39% / Roy 32%), and Comptroller. Abbott and Patrick won outright.","https://www.kbtx.com/2026/03/04/texas-2026-midterm-primaries-abbott-patrick-cruise-wins-attorney-general-comptroller-races-head-runoffs/","research"],[7318,"Netflix walked away from the WBD bidding on 2026-02-26, calling the deal 'no longer financially attractive'; the stock jumped on the news and was up roughly 30% just two weeks later, a clear double-digit rise well inside the April 2026 window.","https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/03/09/free-of-warner-bros-netflix-is-a-growth-stock-once-again/","research"],[6209,"Polling after the Feb 28, 2026 start of the war has consistently shown majority opposition: NPR/PBS/Marist in March found 56% opposed; AP-NORC found 64% said the fighting was not worth the risks; Quinnipiac's July 29, 2026 poll found 60% opposed to US military action in Iran, its highest recorded opposition, with 74% opposed to ground troops.","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3964","research"],[5707,"James Talarico won the March 3, 2026 Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary outright with about 52.5% to Jasmine Crockett's 46.2%, a margin of roughly 145,000 votes, avoiding a runoff.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/texas-senate-primary-cornyn-paxton-hunt-talarico-crockett-rcna261447","research"],[5507,"Brandon Herrera finished first in the March 3, 2026 TX-23 Republican primary (about 43.3% to Tony Gonzales's ~41.7%), and after Gonzales withdrew from the May 26 runoff amid an affair scandal and House Ethics probe, Herrera became the Republican nominee.","https://elpasomatters.org/2026/03/12/elections-2026-tony-gonzales-congress-district-23-brandon-herrera-padilla-stout/","research"],[5194,"The Department of War formally notified Anthropic by letters dated March 3, 2026 that it had been designated a supply chain risk - the first such designation of an American company - after Secretary Hegseth had earlier threatened but did not invoke the Defense Production Act. Anthropic sued on March 9, 2026 to challenge the designation.","https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/05/its-official-the-pentagon-has-labeled-anthropic-a-supply-chain-risk/","research"],[4765,"In the March 3, 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, John Cornyn took about 42% and Ken Paxton about 41%, with Wesley Hunt at 13%; no candidate cleared 50%, sending the race to a May 26, 2026 runoff that Paxton won.","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2026","research"],[4763,"The April 21, 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment passed only 50.7%-49.3% out of about 2.5 million ballots — a roughly 1.4-point margin, not an overwhelming or wide margin. (The Supreme Court of Virginia then struck the amendment down on May 8, 2026.) | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Core call held — the Virginia redistricting referendum did pass (50.7%-49.3%); only the 'overwhelmingly' margin qualifier was wrong.","https://virginiamercury.com/2026/04/21/virginia-voters-back-redistricting-amendment-after-months-of-legal-and-political-battles/","research"],[4761,"No U.S. intelligence agency publicly released an assessment or evidence asserting CCP involvement in the 2020 election on or before June 30, 2026. The declassified China/election documents were released by the White House and announced in Trump's address on July 16-18, 2026, after the window closed; the standing ODNI March 2021 assessment's majority view remained that China did not deploy influence efforts to change the outcome. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Declassified US intel asserting CCP 2020 election involvement was released July 16-18, ~16 days past a ~4-month window (~13% over) and via the White House rather than ODNI — core call right, narrowly late.","https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/setting-the-record-straight-president-trump-declassifies-intel-on-foreign-election-interference-deep-state-coverup/","research"],[4758,"Trump signed his elections executive order (EO 14399) on March 31, 2026; on April 3, 2026 — three days later — Minnesota AG Keith Ellison and a coalition of 23 other AGs/governors sued to block it, and separate voting-rights suits followed, with Judge Indira Talwani enjoining key provisions on June 25, 2026.","https://www.ag.state.mn.us/Office/Communications/2026/04/03_Elections.asp","research"],[4756,"No Trump executive order on foreign interference in elections had its text or substance newly disclosed between Feb 27 and ~March 13, 2026; the only public text was the leaked 17-page activist draft already published Feb 26-27, 2026 (WaPo/Democracy Docket). The elections EO Trump actually signed on March 31, 2026 (EO 14399, 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections') was not a foreign-interference order, and the administration's foreign-interference material was not released until July 16-18, 2026.","https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-14399-ensuring-citizenship-verification-and-integrity-federal-elections","research"],[4493,"Within days of the Feb 27, 2026 prediction, staffing dropped: the FBI pulled most agents off the ground in Tucson back to Phoenix in late February, and by March 6, 2026 Pima County Sheriff's Sgt. Aaron Cross confirmed the department was 'reducing the amount of manpower working it.' By the six-month mark (July 30, 2026) the case had been restructured as a long-term 'no-body' murder investigation with a small team, well below the 400 investigators originally assigned.","https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/fbi-returns-nancy-guthrie-neighborhood-134028886.html","research"],[4490,"On July 25, 2026 U.S. District Judge Lydia Kay Griggsby sentenced Thomas C. Goldstein to 72 months (six years) in federal prison plus five years supervised release and $3,103,427 restitution; his bond was revoked and he was remanded into custody immediately. That is a custodial term, not probation.","https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/prominent-attorney-sentenced-prison-tax-evasion-and-mortgage-fraud","research"],[6206,"Anthropic did not relax its restrictions. CEO Dario Amodei publicly refused Hegseth's Feb 24, 2026 demand to drop the bans on autonomous lethal targeting and mass surveillance, saying the company 'cannot in good conscience accede to the Pentagon's demands.' Trump ordered agencies to cease using Anthropic on Feb 27, and DoD designated Anthropic a supply-chain risk to national security in March 2026 — the first such designation of an American company.","https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12669","research"],[6205,"AOC's public activity in this window (a House floor statement and tweets calling Trump's strikes unauthorized and 'grounds for impeachment,' a pledge to vote yes on Khanna-Massie, and telling troops to refuse illegal orders) was directed at Trump and at rank-and-file colleagues, not at Democratic leadership. House Democratic leadership (Jeffries, Schumer) was itself already publicly demanding a floor vote and reconvening the House on its own initiative, and the Khanna-Massie resolution was structured as a privileged resolution guaranteed a vote regardless of leadership's wishes (it got one on March 5, 2026). No reporting found of AOC specifically pressuring Jeffries or Schumer to force the vote.","https://www.semafor.com/article/03/05/2026/democrats-face-their-own-test-on-trumps-iran-war","research"],[4755,"In the March 3, 2026 Texas primary, Republican turnout broke roughly 1.08M early votes to 1.07M Election Day votes (2.15M total), so Republican Election Day votes did not exceed Republican early votes; early voters were about 53% of all primary ballots statewide. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Miss was razor thin — Republican early votes 1.08M vs. Election Day 1.07M, under a 1% gap on the predicted crossover.","https://texpolls.com/turnout","research"],[4754,"Judge J.P. Boulee ordered the parties to mediation on Feb 25, 2026 with a March 18 completion deadline; the parties notified the court on March 17, 2026 that settlement discussions had failed, and the case moved to an evidentiary hearing on March 27, 2026. The mediation lasted about three weeks, not a couple of months, and was over well before late April.","https://www.democracydocket.com/cases/georgia-fulton-county-2020-election-records-seizure-challenge/","research"],[3686,"Hostilities began on February 28, 2026 with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, two days after the February 26 claim and well inside the March 31, 2026 window. Iran retaliated immediately against U.S. bases in the Gulf and the conflict continued through the spring.","https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R48887/R48887.1.pdf","research"],[6696,"In his 2026 State of the Union address Trump said 'Men playing women's sports. Transgender for everybody,' and devoted a segment to banning gender transition for minors ('We must ban it, and we must ban it immediately'). Multiple outlets confirm the word appeared in the address.","https://www.ncregister.com/cna/trump-touts-transgender-policies-deportations-but-avoids-abortion-in-state-of-the-union","research"],[6204,"Every major post-war poll shows majority opposition. Marist (March 2026) found 56% oppose US military action in Iran; Pew (March 25, 2026) found Americans broadly disapprove; Quinnipiac (July 29, 2026) found 60% oppose versus 34% support and 66% saying the war has not been worth fighting; Reuters/Ipsos in late July found just one in three Americans backing the war.","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3964","research"],[6202,"Hostilities expanded well beyond Iran within days. Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes on US embassies, bases and oil infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Jordan and on British military facilities, while US-Israeli strikes extended into Iraq and the war widened to engulf Lebanon by early March 2026; the Strait of Hormuz was closed and Gulf states were drawn into the fighting.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[6200,"US aircraft were confirmed damaged and destroyed by Iranian missiles: Iranian strikes on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia damaged five US Air Force refueling planes by March 14, 2026, and a March 27 strike damaged a Boeing E-3 Sentry and at least one KC-135 Stratotanker on the ground, with Saudi-theater totals of 2 US aircraft destroyed and 5 damaged. (No US Navy ship has been confirmed hit — CENTCOM denied Iranian claims against USS Abraham Lincoln and the May 2026 Hormuz attacks on USS Truxtun, Rafael Peralta and Mason — but the criterion is satisfied on the aircraft prong.)","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iranian_strikes_on_Saudi_Arabia","research"],[6199,"On Feb 28, 2026 — three days after the prediction — US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury, nearly 900 strikes in 12 hours against Iranian missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure and leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Trump announced the campaign publicly.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[6197,"Trump's Feb 24, 2026 State of the Union produced no approval improvement. CNN had him at 36% going in; approval sat near 40% at the end of February and then fell to a second-term record low of about 34% with a net rating near -30 by late April 2026, and to new lows again in July. Any post-speech movement was confined to issue-specific questions (Harvard/Harris on immigration), not overall job approval.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/07/23/trump-approval-rating-hovers-below-40-as-most-say-trump-will-factor-into-midterm-vote/","research"],[5193,"Three days after this Feb 25, 2026 statement, the US launched acknowledged strikes on Iranian territory on February 28, 2026 (Operation Epic Fury), well before the mid-March deadline.","https://media.defense.gov/2026/Mar/03/2003882557/-1/-1/1/OPERATION-EPIC-FURY-FACT-SHEET-260303.PDF","research"],[7985,"Trump's February 24, 2026 State of the Union address ran 1 hour, 47 minutes, 40 seconds (approximately 107 minutes), exceeding the 99-minute 2025 address and becoming the longest State of the Union in American history.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/politics/speech-time-length-trump-sotu-vis","research"],[6191,"The only agreement Iran signed was the June 17, 2026 memorandum of understanding between Trump and President Pezeshkian — a 14-point framework covering a strike halt, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the naval blockade, sanctions/frozen-asset provisions and a 60-day ceasefire extension. It contained no surrender of Iran's ballistic missile program (Trump said Iran should keep missiles in 'relative proportion' to Gulf states) and no cession of its foreign policy. That ceasefire collapsed July 8, 2026 with no successor deal.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire","research"],[5699,"Trump's opening lines on Feb 24, 2026 — that the nation is 'back, bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before' and that 'a short time ago we were a dead country' — were flagged by fact-checkers as false; FactCheck.org grouped these opening claims with his false assertion that he inherited a stagnant economy with record inflation (actual inflation was 3% at handoff, down from a 9.1% peak).","https://www.factcheck.org/2026/02/factchecking-trumps-state-of-the-union-address/","research"],[5188,"The US began acknowledged strikes on Iranian territory at 1:15am on February 28, 2026 under Operation Epic Fury (alongside Israel's Operation Roaring Lion); CENTCOM reported nearly 2,000 targets struck within days and over 10,000 by March 25, 2026.","https://media.defense.gov/2026/Mar/03/2003882557/-1/-1/1/OPERATION-EPIC-FURY-FACT-SHEET-260303.PDF","research"],[5187,"The complete transcript of Trump's Feb 24, 2026 State of the Union contains no reference to UFOs, aliens, UAP, extraterrestrials or the promised alien-file declassification; the speech covered cost of living, immigration, energy and the DHS shutdown. The UAP file releases came separately via Truth Social in February and a Pentagon batch on May 8, 2026.","https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/february-24-2026-state-union-address","research"],[4752,"Trump appeared at the Port of Corpus Christi, Texas on Friday, Feb 27, 2026, delivering remarks on energy policy and Republican primary races four days before the March 3 Texas primary.","https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2026/02/27/live-updates-president-donald-trump-visits-corpus-christi/","research"],[4751,"The third round of US-Iran talks went ahead in Geneva on Thursday, Feb 26, 2026 and was conducted in the indirect format, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi relaying messages between Witkoff/Kushner and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi at the Omani ambassador's residence in Cologny; Araghchi described them as Iran's longest and most intense round of indirect negotiations. The talks ended with no deal.","https://www.newsonair.gov.in/iran-describes-indirect-nuclear-talks-with-united-states-as-longest-most-intense-negotiations-yet","research"],[4748,"Democratic House members attempted to disrupt the Feb 24, 2026 address: Reps. Omar and Tlaib shouted the president down repeatedly before exiting, Rep. Mark Takano shouted accusations at Trump, and Rep. Al Green was escorted out at the start of the speech holding a protest sign.","https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-omar-tlaib-institutionalized-shouting-state-union-address/story?id=130486313","research"],[4747,"Nielsen reported an estimated 32.6 million total viewers across 15 networks for the Feb 24, 2026 State of the Union, above the 24 million threshold (down from 36.6 million in 2025).","https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2026/32-6-million-watch-2026-state-of-the-union-address/","research"],[4746,"The address began at 9:12 p.m. EST and ran 1:47:40, ending near 11:00 p.m.; Nielsen recorded network coverage of the speech running from approximately 9:12 p.m. ET to 10:59 p.m. ET, so it was still underway well past 10:00 p.m. Eastern.","https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/2026/32-6-million-watch-2026-state-of-the-union-address/","research"],[4745,"Heckling flared several times during the Feb 24, 2026 address; Fox News catalogued '5 times Democrats disrupted' the speech, Omar and Tlaib yelled back repeatedly before leaving mid-speech, Rep. Al Green was removed, and a guest of Rep. Omar was removed and arrested.","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/5-times-democrats-disrupted-trumps-state-union-address","research"],[4744,"McConnell has routinely voted against the SAVE America Act in its various iterations; in June 2026 he joined Sens. Tillis, Collins and Murkowski and the Democrats to defeat the effort to attach the bill to the roughly $70 billion immigration funding package, and Trump publicly attacked him over the opposition.","https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trumps-voter-id-bill-catches-unlikely-break-mcconnell-remains-sidelined","research"],[4743,"Democratic lawmakers repeatedly heckled Trump from the floor on Feb 24, 2026: Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib shouted 'You should be ashamed!' and 'Liar!' and yelled 'You have killed Americans' before walking out, Rep. Mark Takano shouted accusations of insider trading, and Rep. Al Green was escorted from the chamber. Speaker Mike Johnson said the hecklers 'brought shame upon their party.'","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_State_of_the_Union_Address","research"],[4742,"Trump's Feb 24, 2026 State of the Union began at 9:12 p.m. EST and ran 1 hour, 47 minutes, 40 seconds, the longest such address in history, well over the 60-minute threshold.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_State_of_the_Union_Address","research"],[4484,"The 2026-02-24 State of the Union transcript contains no acknowledgment that Americans are still hurting or that gains are not yet being felt; Trump instead said 'inflation is plummeting, incomes are rising fast, the roaring economy is roaring like never before' and called the U.S. 'richer and stronger than ever.' Post-speech coverage focused on the gap between those claims and voters' experience (72% of Americans rated the economy fair or poor).","https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-state-of-the-union-february-24-2026/","research"],[4483,"Multiple Democrats staged visible protests at the 2026-02-24 address: Rep. Al Green was removed for holding a sign, Reps. Ilhan Omar ('You should be ashamed!') and Rashida Tlaib ('Liar!') heckled from the floor, and Rep. Norma Torres held up photos of two deceased U.S. citizens.","https://www.iowapublicradio.org/news-from-npr/2026-02-25/signs-silence-skipping-how-democrats-protested-trumps-state-of-the-union","research"],[4482,"With Roberts, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Barrett seated in the front row, Trump criticized the Court's tariff ruling only in restrained terms — calling it 'unfortunate' and 'disappointing' while saying he would proceed under other authorities. Reporting characterized it as Trump avoiding a confrontation with the justices; he shook hands with all four beforehand and did not attack the justices themselves in the chamber.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-justices-face-trump-state-union-days-tariffs-ruling-rcna260271","research"],[4481,"Democratic members largely stayed seated through the 2026-02-24 address — including when Trump recognized Olympians, war heroes and law enforcement, and when he asked whether the government's first duty is to protect American citizens. Hakeem Jeffries had urged 'silent defiance,' and Republicans ran an ad on 2026-02-26 attacking Democrats for not standing.","https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/sit-stand-trumps-challenge-democrats-key-moment-state-130507304","research"],[3683,"The Section 122 surcharge lapsed by operation of law at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24, 2026 with no congressional extension; the administration replaced it the same minute by executive action, with USTR finalizing Section 301 duties of 10-12.5% on roughly 60-80 economies. Trump did not re-invoke Section 122 specifically, but he extended the tariffs unilaterally rather than seeking authority from Congress, which is what the criteria's 'extends the tariffs by executive action' branch covers.","https://nam.org/u-s-imposes-sweeping-tariffs-under-section-301/","research"],[6523,"Five days after the Feb. 23, 2026 episode, on Feb. 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran (US 'Operation Epic Fury'), killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and starting the 2026 Iran war — well inside the March 31, 2026 window.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[5969,"The Court of International Trade ordered CBP to refund unlawfully collected IEEPA duties, and as of June 29, 2026 CBP had authorized $104.29 billion and actually paid out $71.06 billion including interest, against roughly $166 billion in IEEPA duties collected. That far exceeds the $1 billion threshold.","https://www.cato.org/blog/ieepa-refunds-update-good-progress-still-ways-go","research"],[4480,"In the 2026-02-24 State of the Union transcript Trump declared, 'the state of our Union is strong. Our country is winning again,' alongside superlatives such as 'bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before.'","https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-state-of-the-union-february-24-2026/","research"],[6188,"The Khanna-Massie Iran war powers resolution was defeated in the House 212-219 on March 5, 2026 -- after the Feb 28 strikes had already begun -- with only one Republican (Warren Davidson) joining 210 Democrats. It was never enacted, so the effort failed to rein in the administration within the resolve-by window.","https://rollcall.com/2026/03/05/iran-war-powers-resolution-defeated-in-house/","research"],[4741,"Major US strikes on Iran were underway throughout mid-to-late March 2026 under Operation Epic Fury, including a large-scale CENTCOM precision strike on Kharg Island on March 13, 2026 hitting more than 90 military targets; CENTCOM's own 'First 24 Days' fact sheet was published March 23, 2026 and by March 25 it reported over 10,000 targets struck.","https://media.defense.gov/2026/Mar/23/2003902061/-1/-1/1/OPERATION-EPIC-FURY-FACT-SHEET-THE-FIRST-24-DAYS.PDF","research"],[7311,"US and Israeli forces began striking Iran on 2026-02-28 — eight days after the 2026-02-20 prediction — under Operation Epic Fury / Operation Roaring Lion; CENTCOM reported nearly 2,000 targets struck by early March and over 10,000 by March 25, well inside the six-week window.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[6187,"Iran did not agree to surrender its ballistic missiles. Tehran called the missile program 'non-negotiable' (Feb 11, 2026) and reiterated that position in June, and Trump's June 17, 2026 war-ending deal explicitly lets Iran keep ballistic missiles while barring nuclear weapons.","https://www.jta.org/2026/06/17/default/in-trump-deal-iran-can-have-ballistic-missiles-and-billions-of-dollars-but-must-give-up-nukes","research"],[6185,"No US strike on Iran occurred on Feb 20-21, 2026. The US-Israeli campaign opened a week later, on Feb 28, 2026, with roughly 900 strikes in 12 hours. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): The substantive call (imminent US strikes on Iran) was right and the campaign opened Feb 28, seven days past the named Feb 20-21 date — well inside the ~2-week late tolerance.","https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-02-28-26-hnk-intl","research"],[5498,"On June 5, 2026 the Chicago Bears' board of directors voted to advance development of the team's new stadium in Hammond, Indiana (Northwest Indiana), the first time the franchise would be based outside Illinois.","https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/06/05/chicago-bears-say-they-will-advance-stadium-plans-for-northwest-indiana-site/","research"],[4736,"Labour PM Keir Starmer authorized US use of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for strikes on Iran in early March 2026 and expanded the authorization on March 20, 2026; successor Labour PM Andy Burnham continued the policy in July 2026, with B-1 bombers flying from RAF Fairford against IRGC targets.","https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2026-03-02/uk-us-bases-iran-20928006.html","research"],[4735,"The Georgia State Election Board subpoenaed Raffensperger around February 19, 2026 to appear and explain a Fulton County double-voting complaint, after hiring a private investigator over his objection. Raffensperger had just refused (in January 2026) to appear before the state Senate Ethics Committee over the related voter-data fight and was separately rebuffing DOJ/Board demands for voter data; no report of a voluntary, compliant appearance before the Board on this subpoena was found by the March 31, 2026 deadline, consistent with his established pattern of contesting rather than complying.","https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/01/raffensperger-a-no-show-before-state-senate-ethics-committee/","research"],[3672,"The US has been at war with Iran since February 28, 2026, with sustained US strikes (10,000+ targets by March 25) and 40 days of combat before the April 8, 2026 ceasefire — well before the September 30, 2026 deadline.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[6693,"The February 2026 standoff ended in war, not a deal: on February 28, 2026 the U.S. and Israel launched a sustained air campaign on Tehran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with nuclear talks collapsing rather than producing an agreement. Tim made the call February 19, nine days earlier.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/02/28/israel-strikes-iran-live-updates/","research"],[5494,"The US campaign against Iran that began Feb 28, 2026 (Operation Epic Fury) was air/naval only: 5,000+ targets struck in the first ten days with no US ground invasion or occupation of Iranian territory through June 30, 2026. Ground operations (e.g. seizing Kharg Island) remained in the planning/hypothetical stage as late as July 24, 2026.","https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/24/us-ground-operation-iran-invasion-kharg-war-trump/","research"],[5493,"Amber Glenn finished 5th in the women's singles figure skating event at Milano Cortina 2026 with a combined 214.91 (13th in the short program, season-best 147.52 free skate), off the podium and without an individual medal.","https://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/article/winter-olympics-2026-amber-glenn-finds-some-redemption--just-not-enough-for-a-medal-195733393.html","research"],[5492,"IRS filing season statistics for the week ending April 17, 2026 show an average refund of $3,275 versus $2,942 a year earlier, up 11.3% — matching the 'about 11%' call (the April 3 snapshot was +11.1%, $3,462 vs $3,116).","https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-for-week-ending-april-17-2026","research"],[5184,"Quinnipiac's March 9, 2026 national poll found over half of voters opposed US military action against Iran (74% opposed ground troops); Marist in March 2026 had 56% opposed, Pew (Mar 25, 2026) found Americans broadly disapproving, and Quinnipiac's July 29, 2026 poll had 6 in 10 voters opposed. Majority opposition held all year.","https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3952","research"],[5179,"US forces began acknowledged strikes inside Iran on Feb 28, 2026 (Operation Epic Fury), a coordinated US-Israeli campaign of nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei; the campaign was still running in July 2026, well within the 2026-12-31 window.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[4475,"Judge Lewis Liman's 152-page opinion of 2026-04-02 granted Baldoni's summary-judgment motion only in part: it dismissed most claims (harassment, defamation, false light) but let three claims — breach of contract, retaliation, and aiding and abetting retaliation — proceed to the May 18 trial. The case was therefore not disposed of on summary judgment; the parties settled on 2026-05-04 before trial.","https://deadline.com/2026/04/blake-lively-justin-baldoni-sexual-harassment-claims-dismissed-1236772610/","research"],[6176,"US forces struck Iran on Feb 28, 2026 -- roughly 900 US and Israeli strikes in 12 hours against Iranian nuclear sites, air defenses, missile forces and leadership -- well within the Dec 31, 2026 window.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[5691,"Trump delivered the February 24, 2026 State of the Union in full — at over 1 hour 47 minutes, the longest SOTU on record — with no reported episode in which he became unable to continue speaking.","https://www.factcheck.org/2026/02/factchecking-trumps-state-of-the-union-address/","research"],[4725,"On May 6, 2026 U.S. District Judge J.P. Boulee denied Fulton County's motion for return of the seized 2020 ballots — but on the merits (no showing of callous disregard, lack of probable cause, or irreparable harm, and DOJ had supplied copies), not for lack of standing. The suit failed, but not on the standing grounds specified. | NEAR MISS (review 2026-08-08): Core call held — the Georgia ballot-recovery suit did fail as predicted; only the secondary detail of the legal ground (merits rather than standing) was wrong.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/justice-department-can-keep-2020-ballots-seized-from-fulton-county-in-georgia-judge-rules","research"],[4723,"Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury on Feb 27, 2026 and US strikes on Iran began Feb 28, 2026 and continued in sustained weekly phases through roughly April 7, 2026 (about six weeks) before an April 8 ceasefire; a renewed US bombing campaign resumed July 8, 2026 and ran seven-plus consecutive nights.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[5489,"Jeremy Carl withdrew his nomination for Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations on March 10, 2026, after his Feb 12 Senate Foreign Relations hearing drew bipartisan opposition (including Sen. John Curtis, R-UT); Carl said he lacked the unanimous Republican committee support needed to advance. He will not be confirmed in 2026.","https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5778632-trump-state-dept-nominee-withdraws/","research"],[4718,"Trump signed Executive Order 14399 on elections/mail voting on March 31, 2026; a coalition of 23 attorneys general plus Pennsylvania's governor filed suit on April 3, 2026 — three days later.","https://www.ag.state.mn.us/Office/Communications/2026/04/03_Elections.asp","research"],[4715,"The redistricting referendum was held as scheduled on April 21, 2026 and passed 52%-48%; no court prevented the election. The Virginia Supreme Court only voided the results afterward, in a 4-3 opinion issued May 8, 2026.","https://www.elections.virginia.gov/news-releases/supreme-court-of-virginia-voids-april-21-redistricting-referendum-1.html","research"],[5177,"After Pam Bondi's Feb 15, 2026 letter declaring 'all' Epstein files released, DOJ released additional records on March 6, 2026 (15 documents 'incorrectly coded as duplicative,' including 2019 FBI interview reports with allegations against Trump); the FBI produced further FOIA material in April 2026, and Judge Emmet Sullivan was reviewing still-withheld redacted documents in camera as of late July 2026.","https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2026/03/06/justice-department-releases-some-missing-epstein-files-that-include-allegations-against-trump/","research"],[5173,"Multiple House Democratic incumbents lost 2026 primaries to insurgent left challengers: Dan Goldman (NY-10) lost to Brad Lander, Adriano Espaillat (NY-13) lost to DSA member Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Diana DeGette (CO-01) lost to self-described democratic socialist Melat Kiros; seven House incumbents had lost renomination by July 2026.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/espaillat-ny-house-primary-loss-district-13-avila-chevalier-rcna351127","research"],[7980,"DHS appropriations expired at midnight on February 13, 2026 with no funding deal reached, triggering a partial shutdown affecting TSA, FEMA and the Coast Guard beginning February 14, 2026, while the rest of the federal government (funded through the other 11 bills) continued operating.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/14/nx-s1-5713914/department-of-homeland-security-shutdown","research"],[6168,"The Florida House passed HB 1471 on March 3, 2026 and the Senate passed the companion measure (CS/CS/SB 1632) the same week; Governor DeSantis signed the terrorist-designation law on April 6, 2026, effective July 1, 2026. Passage occurred well before the June 30, 2026 deadline.","https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/04/06/desantis-signs-bill-allowing-state-officials-to-issue-domestic-terrorist-designations/","research"],[5685,"Trump fired Pam Bondi as U.S. Attorney General on April 2, 2026, announcing on Truth Social that she was 'transitioning' to the private sector; Deputy AG Todd Blanche took over as acting attorney general.","https://www.npr.org/2026/04/02/g-s1-115077/trump-bondi-attorney-general-departure","research"],[4711,"In the March 3, 2026 Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary, James Talarico won outright with about 52.5% to Jasmine Crockett's 46.2% (margin ~145,000 votes), avoiding a runoff; Crockett conceded the next morning.","https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/election-2026/2026/03/03/544877/crockett-talarico-texas-senate-democratic-primary-election-results/","research"],[3663,"The Senate took no vote at all on the Canada tariff resolution: its official 119th Congress 2nd-session roll-call list shows no Canada or tariff-emergency resolution vote through July 29, 2026, so it was neither passed nor considered within the March window.","https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/vote_menu_119_2.htm","research"],[3662,"No veto occurred. The Senate never voted on H.J.Res.72 (no Canada/tariff roll call in the 2026 session), so it never reached Trump's desk, and the record of second-term Trump vetoes lists only two — H.R.131 and H.R.504, both December 29, 2025 — with none on tariffs. The Supreme Court's Feb 20, 2026 IEEPA ruling mooted the underlying tariffs.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_vetoes","research"],[6167,"The January 2026 payroll figure of +130,000 was revised in the March 6, 2026 Employment Situation release to +126,000 (down 4,000), and revised again in the April release to +160,000 (up 34,000) — both well before the April 30, 2026 deadline.","https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062026.htm","research"],[6165,"Bondi never resigned. Trump announced on April 2, 2026 that he had fired her as Attorney General amid frustration over the Epstein files and her handling of DOJ cases; Deputy AG Todd Blanche took over as acting Attorney General. Under the criteria, being fired does not count as resigning.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/02/trump-fires-bondi-doj/","research"],[6164,"The US conducted a sustained direct campaign against Iran, not a one-off strike: joint US-Israeli operations began Feb 28, 2026 with roughly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours and continued through about 40 days of combat until the April 7-8, 2026 ceasefire, with further exchanges after the truce collapsed on July 8, 2026.","https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran","research"],[5171,"On Feb 28, 2026 (after the Feb 12 prediction) US missiles and drones, alongside Israeli aircraft, began striking Iran in nearly 900 strikes over 12 hours, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; US strikes continued through renewed waves on May 7 and July 2026, including a seventh consecutive night of strikes reported July 30, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[4708,"Senate Daily Digest records show the chamber held pro forma sessions with no business conducted on Feb 13 (9:00 a.m.), Feb 17 (6:30 p.m.) and Feb 19 (2:00 p.m.), 2026 rather than adjourning into a true recess over the President's Day break, and no recess appointments were made during that period.","https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/2026/02/17","research"],[4706,"Karrin Taylor Robson suspended her campaign on February 12, 2026 and never resumed it. The Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary was held July 21, 2026 with a field of Andy Biggs, David Schweikert, Scott Neely and Ken Miceli — Robson was not on the ballot. Biggs won the nomination.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/trump-backed-rep-andy-biggs-wins-gop-primary-arizona-governor-rcna587980","research"],[6683,"Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike on his Tehran compound, confirmed by Iranian state media; Iran declared 40 days of mourning and Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded him as Supreme Leader. Tim's claim was made February 11, 2026, 17 days before.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5730158/israel-iran-strikes-trump-us","research"],[6163,"EPA finalized the endangerment finding repeal on Feb 12, 2026 and was sued within a week: health and environmental groups (American Lung Association, APHA, NRDC, Sierra Club, Center for Biological Diversity and others) filed in the DC Circuit on Feb 18, 2026, followed in March 2026 by a petition from 25 state attorneys general plus 12 cities and counties.","https://stateimpactcenter.org/ag-work/ag-actions/twenty-five-ags-filed-lawsuit-challenging-epas-endangerment-finding-repeal","research"],[5957,"Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson were all in the 6-3 majority striking down the IEEPA tariffs on Feb. 20, 2026; Kagan wrote for the three concluding the president simply lacked tariff authority under IEEPA's plain text. All three voted against the administration.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/a-breakdown-of-the-courts-tariff-decision/","research"],[5956,"Justice Kavanaugh wrote the principal dissent (joined by Thomas and Alito) in the Feb. 20, 2026 decision, arguing that the authority to 'regulate ... importation' historically includes tariffs. He voted to uphold the president's IEEPA tariff authority.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/a-breakdown-of-the-courts-tariff-decision/","research"],[5955,"Justice Thomas dissented from the Feb. 20, 2026 ruling, joining Kavanaugh's dissent that IEEPA's power to 'regulate importation' includes tariffs, and writing separately that Congress may broadly delegate tariff and foreign-commerce power to the president. He voted to uphold the president's tariff authority.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/a-breakdown-of-the-courts-tariff-decision/","research"],[5954,"In the Feb. 20, 2026 decision (Learning Resources v. Trump, consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) the Court held 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs; Chief Justice Roberts' opinion was joined in full by Gorsuch and Barrett, so the administration lost both of the justices Cruz named (he predicted losing at least one). Note the drafting quirk: there was no majority upholding the tariffs, and both Gorsuch and Barrett defected rather than exactly one.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/a-breakdown-of-the-courts-tariff-decision/","research"],[5953,"The original prediction required Roberts both to uphold the tariffs and write the majority opinion. The Supreme Court's February 20 opinion instead holds that IEEPA does not authorize the challenged tariffs, with Roberts delivering the relevant majority opinion. Authorship alone does not satisfy the full claim; the previous YES is corrected to NO.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf","research"],[5952,"The February 20, 2026 decision was 6-3, not 5-4: Chief Justice Roberts was joined by Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett and Jackson, with Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh dissenting.","https://www.klgates.com/Summary-Supreme-Court-Decision-on-IEEPA-Tariffs-2-20-2026","research"],[5951,"On February 20, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled against the administration in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S. Selections), holding that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs and striking down both the Reciprocal Tariffs and the Trafficking/Immigration Tariffs. The tariffs were invalidated, not upheld.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf","research"],[4698,"In the March 3, 2026 Texas GOP Senate primary, Cornyn took 42% and Paxton 41%, with Wesley Hunt third at 13.5% — no candidate reached 50%+1, sending the race to a May 26, 2026 runoff, which Paxton won.","https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2026_(May_26_Republican_primary_runoff)","research"],[4696,"On his February 11, 2026 White House visit Netanyahu did not enter through the West Wing entrance where reporters were waiting; he arrived via the south entrance, and the roughly three-hour meeting with Trump was held entirely behind closed doors, closed to the press. The arrangement Bannon said would be renegotiated was not.","https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-arrives-at-white-house-begins-meeting-with-trump/","research"],[3659,"The House passed H.J.Res.72 terminating the Canada tariff national emergency by a 219-211 roll call on February 11, 2026 — within days of the claim and well inside the end-of-February window.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-end-trump-tariffs-canada-rcna258661","research"],[3658,"On March 31, 2026, Judge Richard J. Leon granted the National Trust for Historic Preservation's request for a preliminary injunction halting ballroom construction; he clarified it on April 16 to explicitly bar above-ground work (the D.C. Circuit later stayed it on April 18).","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/trump-white-house-ballroom-judge.html","research"],[6159,"No nuclear agreement ever emerged from the Feb 2026 Oman/Geneva negotiating track: talks were held through February and ended when the US and Israel struck Iran on Feb 28, 2026. The later June 17, 2026 US-Iran memorandum came out of a separate Pakistan-mediated post-war ceasefire track and is a 60-day framework for future talks on Hormuz, nuclear and sanctions issues, not a signed nuclear deal.","https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran","research"],[5483,"Nielsen did not measure the All-American Halftime Show; the best compiled figures put it at 6.1-6.4 million peak concurrent viewers on YouTube and Rumble on Feb 8, 2026, with roughly 21 million additional YouTube views afterward, and TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet himself later settled on a claim of about 20 million total viewers. That is far below the roughly 50 million (40-60 million) required.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-American_Halftime_Show","research"],[5167,"Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act on June 23, 2026 and it became law; it prohibits 'large institutional investors' (entities controlling 350+ single-family homes) from acquiring most single-family homes, with carve-outs for new construction, build-to-rent and rent-to-own. The enacted package therefore does contain an investor purchase ban.","https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2026/07/congress-limits-institutional-acquisition-of-single-family-homes","research"],[4694,"AdImpact reported pro-Cornyn spending (campaign plus allied groups) at $64-69M through the March 3 primary, out of $88-95M total on the Republican side. Total runoff-period ad spending by all candidates from March 3 through May 26 was only about $21M, so Cornyn's side was nowhere near $100M by March 31, 2026.","https://www.fox4news.com/news/texas-senate-primary-most-expensive","research"],[4692,"No short-term CR was enacted at the mid-February deadline. The two-week CR passed Feb 3 expired Feb 13, 2026, and a partial DHS shutdown began Feb 14, 2026, lasting more than two months until the House voted April 30 to fund most of DHS — the longest single-agency shutdown in U.S. history.","https://www.npr.org/2026/04/30/nx-s1-5806054/congress-dhs-shutdown","research"],[4466,"On July 1, 2026 the FBI confirmed that the two early-February ransom notes sent to Tucson local news outlets and TMZ, plus a later note claiming knowledge of the kidnappers, were 'deemed to be extortion attempts without legitimacy'; separately, Derrick Anthony Callella of Hawthorne, CA pleaded guilty to two federal counts of harassment via telecommunication device for hoax bitcoin demands to the Guthrie family, which the complaint says were not linked to the abduction.","https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/nancy-guthrie-fbi-determines-ransom-notes-fake-report-says","research"],[5163,"No nuclear-only deal resulted: Washington expanded its terms to zero enrichment plus limits on Iran's ballistic missile program and an end to support for regional proxies (Rubio said on Feb 25, 2026 that talks would have to go beyond the nuclear file), and on Feb 28, 2026 US missiles and drones joined Israeli jets in striking Iran, opening the 2026 Iran war.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war","research"],[5162,"On February 28, 2026 U.S. and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes on Iran in 12 hours, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; U.S. strikes continued through the summer, including more than 80 targets hit on July 7, 2026 and fresh strikes on July 30, 2026.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[4690,"Reported totals for the Feb 8, 2026 All-American Halftime Show topped out around 19-25 million views (19.25M YouTube, ~2.2M TPUSA Rumble, ~1.2M RAV Rumble, 3.6M Charlie Kirk channel; TPUSA itself claimed 'at least 25 million' and ~20M total viewers). Peak concurrent viewership was 6.1-6.4 million. No source reported 40 million or more by Feb 28, 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-American_Halftime_Show","research"],[3645,"The case ended in dismissal, not a settlement to Trump: on May 18, 2026 Trump filed a Rule 41(a)(1)(A)(i) voluntary dismissal with prejudice, and trade reporting states the case 'was dismissed rather than settled through a traditional agreement,' with Trump personally receiving nothing. The specific mechanism he predicted — a personal physical injury/emotional trauma settlement under the IRS code — did not occur; the $1.776B DOJ fund is expressly not tied to the value of the Trump plaintiffs' claims.","https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/news/trump-ends-10b-legal-battle-with-irs-as-doj-orders-settlement-fund/","research"],[5949,"Every Senate roll call on the SAVE America Act in 2026 drew zero Democratic yes votes: the June 4, 2026 vote failed 48-50 with Republicans Collins, Murkowski, McConnell and Tillis joining every Democrat in opposition, matching earlier 48-50 failures on April 23, 2026. No Democratic senator has been recorded voting yes.","https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/senate-rejects-another-gop-push-to-revive-save-america-act/","research"],[5161,"In the April 16, 2026 NJ-11 special general election, Democrat Analilia Mejia defeated Republican Joe Hathaway 59.5% to 40% (AP call), a roughly 20-point margin, well above the double-digit threshold.","https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/here-are-the-final-results-in-the-nj-11-special-election/","research"],[4684,"Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on March 4, 2026; the Senate confirmed him as Fed Chair 54-45 on May 13, 2026, and he took the oath of office as Chairman and Board member on May 22, 2026 (FOMC unanimously selected him as its chairman the same day) — before the May 31 deadline. Bessent did not take the Fed job.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm","research"],[3639,"The Clintons asked for public depositions; Chairman Comer instead held both behind closed doors (transcribed and filmed) on Feb 26 (Hillary) and Feb 27, 2026 (Bill). After her 6-hour closed-door deposition Hillary Clinton said it was disappointing that the committee 'refused to hold a public hearing.'","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/26/nx-s1-5727777/hillary-clinton-deposition-house-oversight-epstein","research"],[6153,"The US-Iran nuclear track that opened in Oman on Feb 6, 2026 and continued through rounds in mid- and late February collapsed with no agreement when the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran on Feb 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. CFR attributes the strikes directly to Tehran's refusal to accede to US demands to end all enrichment.","https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran","research"],[5158,"Border czar Tom Homan announced the end of Operation Metro Surge on February 12, 2026 with agents withdrawing over the following week; Minnesota's federal immigration force fell from about 4,000 to roughly 400 by February 25, 2026, well inside the ~May 2026 window.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/12/nx-s1-5712280/minnesota-ice-surge-ends","research"],[7972,"During Bill Clinton's February 27, 2026 deposition, questioning from House Democrats on the Oversight Committee elicited Clinton's account of a conversation in which Trump told him they had 'some great times together over the years, but we fell out all because of a real estate deal' regarding Epstein, satisfying the requirement that a Democratic panel member asked him about Trump's relationship with Epstein.","https://www.investing.com/news/general-news/clinton-says-trump-told-him-of-some-great-times-with-jeffrey-epstein-4536544","research"],[7971,"In their closed-door House Oversight Committee depositions on February 26 (Hillary) and February 27, 2026 (Bill), neither Clinton admitted to a sexual relationship with a person trafficked by Jeffrey Epstein; Hillary said she had no knowledge of Epstein's or Ghislaine Maxwell's crimes, and Bill testified 'I saw nothing, and I did nothing wrong' and that he saw nothing indicating Epstein was trafficking women.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5730149/bill-clinton-epstein-congress-deposition","research"],[6150,"The third and final round of the then-ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks ended in Geneva on Feb 26, 2026 with no deal ('most intense so far,' per FM Araghchi); the perceived lack of progress led Trump to green-light the Feb 28 strikes. As of early August 2026 no US-Iran nuclear agreement has been concluded — only a June 19 memorandum of understanding extending the ceasefire and creating working groups.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/us-iran-nuclear-talks-oil-middle-east.html","research"],[6149,"On Feb 28, 2026 US and Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes on Iran in 12 hours, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; the war ran 40 days with Iranian retaliation against US bases and shipping until a ceasefire took effect April 8, 2026, and further US strikes on Iran resumed in July 2026.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[5947,"The February 6, 2026 Oman-hosted US-Iran talks produced no agreement, framework, or announced breakthrough — they were two indirect sessions that merely set up further rounds (second round February 17, third round in Geneva February 26, which also ended with no deal). Participants described the atmosphere as constructive and Trump called the talks 'good,' but nothing was concluded, satisfying the stated criterion of no agreement or breakthrough from that session.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/26/g-s1-111595/u-s-iran-to-third-round-nuclear-talks","research"],[6147,"The State Department notified Congress on Jan 30-31, 2026 of $6.67 billion in arms sales to Israel (AH-64E Apaches ~$3.8B, JLTVs ~$1.98B, plus power packs and light helicopters); Congress passed no joint resolution of disapproval and the sale proceeded. The only Senate blocking votes of 2026 came on April 15 against unrelated, smaller sales ($295M bulldozers, $151.8M bombs) and both failed, 40-59 and 36-63.","https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-approves-6-7-billion-arms-sale-to-israel-9-billion-patriot-missile-deal-for-saudis/","research"],[5475,"Collins voted yea on Senate roll call #57 (Mar 17, 2026 motion to proceed, 51-48) and yea on roll call #73 (Mar 26 photo-ID cloture), and on June 5, 2026 she flipped to vote YES on Sen. Mike Lee's Amendment 5804 — the version mirroring the House-passed SAVE Act — which failed 50-49. Reporting after that vote listed only McConnell, Murkowski and Tillis as remaining GOP opponents.","https://townhall.com/tipsheet/jeff-charles/2026/06/09/will-susan-collins-save-the-save-america-act-n2677463","research"],[5473,"On the cleanest SAVE Act test vote — Sen. Mike Lee's Amendment 5804 mirroring the House-passed SAVE Act, June 5, 2026, which failed 50-49 — McConnell voted no, and he also voted no on the Graham SAVE Act amendment June 4 (48-50). Reporting consistently lists McConnell among the four Republican holdouts (with Murkowski, Collins on the earlier vote, and Tillis) blocking the bill. (Caveat: McConnell did vote yea on the procedural Mar 17 motion to proceed and on the Mar 26 photo-ID cloture.)","https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2026/06/05/tillis-murkowski-mcconnell-collins-the-4-republicans-who-helped-dems-shoot-down-the-save-act-again-n2203060","research"],[5472,"Senate roll call vote #57 (Mar 17, 2026), Motion to Proceed to the House Message to Accompany S.1383 (the SAVE America Act), was agreed to 51-48. Roll call #73 (Mar 26, 2026), cloture on the Husted photo-ID amendment to the same measure, recorded 53 yeas (failed only against the 60-vote threshold).","https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00057.htm","research"],[4461,"On June 25, 2026 the Supreme Court decided Mullin v. Doe 6-3 for the Trump administration, reversing the district court orders - including Judge Ana Reyes's February 2026 order - that had postponed termination of TPS for Haiti and Syria; USCIS then set Haitian TPS-based work authorization to expire July 24, 2026.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-1083_f204.pdf","research"],[4460,"On Feb 4, 2026 - one day after the prediction and six days before the Feb 10 deadline - Savannah Guthrie posted an emotional on-camera Instagram video with siblings Annie and Camron demanding proof of life ('We need to know without a doubt that she is alive'), which was carried widely by national news outlets; she posted a second video Feb 7, 2026.","https://www.aetv.com/articles/nancy-guthrie-disappearance-update","research"],[5945,"The February 3, 2026 House roll call passing the funding package was 217-214, with 21 Democrats voting yes and 21 Republicans voting no (one Republican abstaining) — the bill could not have passed without the Democratic bloc, making it a bipartisan coalition as predicted.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns","research"],[5944,"The House passed the DHS/government funding measure (H.R. 7744) on Tuesday, February 3, 2026 by a 217-214 vote, and President Trump signed it the same day, ending the four-day partial shutdown exactly on the Tuesday deadline Cruz named.","https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/house-passes-hr-7744-end-democrat-shutdown-and-fully-fund-homeland-security","research"],[4672,"Powell's term as Fed chair ended 2026-05-15; the Board named him chair pro tempore only until his successor took office, and Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed chair on 2026-05-22 - before the 2026-05-31 deadline.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260515a.htm","research"],[4457,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court decided the consolidated Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. cases (argued Jan 13, 2026) in favor of the states, with Justice Kavanaugh writing that Title IX allows schools to maintain female sports teams defined by biological sex; states may exclude transgender athletes from girls'/women's scholastic sports.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/06/court-rules-that-states-can-exclude-transgender-athletes-from-girls-and-womens-sports-teams/","research"],[3628,"Todd Blanche was named acting Attorney General on April 2, 2026, immediately upon Pam Bondi's removal, and assumed the role — squarely within the mid-2026 window.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-pam-bondi-attorney-general/","research"],[3627,"Pam Bondi left the office of Attorney General on April 2, 2026, well before the mid-2026 deadline. Trump announced she was out amid dissatisfaction over her handling of the Epstein files; reporting characterized it as a firing/ouster rather than a voluntary resignation, though the criteria's test is departure from the office, which occurred.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-pam-bondi-attorney-general/","research"],[6145,"On April 3, 2026, Iranian forces shot down two US aircraft in separate incidents — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iran (one crew member rescued, one missing) and an A-10 that crashed in the Persian Gulf after being struck — the first US combat aircraft losses of the war.","https://www.aol.com/articles/iran-fires-targets-across-mideast-045114403.html","research"],[6142,"The US did not strike Iran by Feb 8, 2026. A third round of US-Iran talks was held in Geneva on Feb 26, 2026, and the joint US-Israeli air campaign against Iran began on Feb 28, 2026 — about three weeks after the claim's window closed.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[5943,"The January 31-February 3, 2026 shutdown was partial, hitting roughly half of federal departments (State, Treasury, Defense in part, Transportation, HUD, HHS, Labor, Education, DHS, plus the Executive Office of the President and some independent agencies) while Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Interior, Commerce, Justice and Energy stayed funded. That was a materially narrower scope than the prior 43-day full-government shutdown, and it lasted only 4 days.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns","research"],[5942,"A partial federal government shutdown began January 31, 2026 after Senate Democrats withdrew support for the DHS appropriations bill following the Alex Pretti killing and a DHS shooting in Minneapolis, blocking the January 30 funding deadline. The shutdown ran January 31 to February 3, 2026, exactly the DHS/ICE-driven shutdown Cruz predicted.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/26/nx-s1-5686473/senate-democrats-to-vote-against-dhs-funding-setting-up-potential-partial-shutdown","research"],[3625,"On March 27, 2026, a group of Epstein survivors filed a class-action lawsuit against the Justice Department (and Google) in the Northern District of California over the release of victim-identifying information, alleging DOJ 'outed approximately 100 survivors' in violation of the Epstein Files Transparency Act's redaction requirements.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/27/us/epstein-survivors-sue-doj-google-hnk","research"],[7969,"The January 31, 2026 deadline produced a funding lapse that was not limited to DHS: funding also expired at the Department of Defense, State Department, HHS, Labor, Education, and Treasury, with only DHS separately covered by a 2-week continuing resolution. Because the lapse covered the broader federal government beyond DHS, this fails the resolution criteria for a DHS-only lapse.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/31/nx-s1-5694696/partial-government-shutdown-begins-despite-senate-approval-of-spending-deal","research"],[7292,"No U.S. military strike on Iran occurred by the February 13 deadline. U.S. Central Command commenced Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28, 2026, 15 calendar days after that deadline.","https://media.defense.gov/2026/Mar/29/2003904283/-1/-1/1/OPERATION-EPIC-FURY-FACT-SHEET-THE-FIRST-29-DAYS.PDF","research"],[7291,"Budweiser's 'American Icons' won the 38th USA TODAY Ad Meter for Super Bowl LX with a 4.00 score (its record 10th title); the Rocket/Redfin Lady Gaga 'America Needs Neighbors Like You' spot finished 12th of 54.","https://www.usatodayco.com/pr/budweiser-wins-usa-todays-38th-annual-ad-meter-competition/","research"],[6516,"Don Lemon was arrested by federal agents in Los Angeles on Jan. 29, 2026 and indicted over his coverage of the Jan. 18 anti-ICE protest at Cities Church in St. Paul. In the two weeks that followed, the public defenses came from press-freedom groups (CPJ, Center for American Progress) and the White House publicly celebrated the arrest on X; no statement, post, or interview from Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg defending Lemon or criticizing the arrest has been reported.","https://pressfreedomtracker.us/all-incidents/don-lemon-arrested-charged-over-covering-minnesota-church-protest/","research"],[6139,"The US and Israel launched a 40-day campaign against Iran beginning Feb 28, 2026 (nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours) that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; Trump told Iranians 'when we are finished, take over your government' and said on Feb 13 regime change 'would be the best thing to ever happen,' while Netanyahu said the strikes aimed to create 'optimal conditions for the opposition to overthrow their government.' Far beyond a one-off strike on nuclear sites.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime_change_efforts_in_the_2026_Iran_war","research"],[6137,"After Operation Metro Surge ended Feb 12, 2026, Homan announced the largest-ever ICE deployment in New York City and the surge launched July 27-31, 2026, with masked, body-armored agents in large groups making street and vehicle stops and ID/passport checks across Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Long Island, including pepper-spraying a woman filming them.","https://www.amny.com/immigration/ice-agents-new-york-surge-arrests-immigrants-07312026/","research"],[6135,"On Feb 3, 2026 Trump signed H.R.7148, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, enacting full-year FY2026 funding for the remaining bills (Defense; Labor-HHS-Education; Transportation-HUD; Financial Services; National Security-State) while DHS was stripped out and carried on a separate short-term continuing resolution (H.R.7147) that expired Feb 13, triggering a DHS-only shutdown on Feb 14.","https://www.crfb.org/blogs/appropriations-watch-fy-2026","research"],[5938,"Treasury officially launched Trump Accounts on July 4, 2026, with accounts live for deposits and the $1,000 federal pilot contribution transferred that day for children born 2025-2028; accounts can be opened for any child who does not turn 18 before year-end. Over 7 million accounts had been opened as of the launch period, so the accounts were actually live and available, not merely announced.","https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0554","research"],[5470,"On Jan 30, 2026 U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett dismissed the two death-eligible federal counts against Mangione, and on Feb 27, 2026 Manhattan federal prosecutors declined to appeal that ruling. The remaining federal stalking counts cap at life without parole, and the New York state murder case carries no death penalty, so no death sentence can be imposed in any prosecution.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/30/us/luigi-mangione-case-rulings-trial","research"],[4669,"Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the Texas SD-9 special election runoff on 2026-01-31 with 57.21% to Leigh Wambsganss's 42.79%, flipping a district Republicans had held since the 1980s.","https://www.texastribune.org/2026/01/30/texas-senate-district-9-runoff-rehmet-wambsganss-special-election/","research"],[4668,"No law or appropriations rider requiring a judicial warrant for each ICE enforcement action was enacted. The February package did not include it, and the bill Trump signed 2026-04-30 ending the 76-day DHS shutdown funded FEMA, Coast Guard and CISA while excluding ICE and CBP entirely, leaving the warrant, masking and enforcement-reform demands unresolved.","https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/30/congress-ends-record-breaking-homeland-security-shutdown/89885346007/","research"],[4667,"Federal appropriations lapsed and a partial government shutdown took effect on Saturday, 2026-01-31, after the House delayed its vote on the compromise package the Senate passed 71-29 on 2026-01-30. The shutdown ran until 2026-02-03.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns","research"],[4665,"A partial federal shutdown began 2026-01-31 and ran through 2026-02-03 after the Senate split DHS out of the FY2026 package; DHS was funded only through 2026-02-13, and a second, DHS-only shutdown began 2026-02-14. Both lapses came directly out of the DHS appropriations fight in early 2026.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns","research"],[4456,"At his Jan 30, 2026 initial appearance in Los Angeles, a U.S. magistrate judge released Don Lemon on his own recognizance without requiring any bond, rejecting DOJ's request for a $100,000 bond and most proposed pretrial conditions; he was permitted to travel freely in the U.S. and appeared at his Feb 13, 2026 arraignment out of custody.","https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/31/don-lemon-freed-in-los-angeles-after-being-taken-into-custody","research"],[3623,"The first House floor vote on the funding compromise occurred on Tuesday, February 3, 2026 (procedural rule vote followed by final passage 217-214 the same day) — on or after the predicted Monday, February 2 earliest.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns","research"],[3621,"No US strike on Iran occurred on or before roughly February 6, 2026. The US-Israeli strike campaign did not begin until February 28, 2026 — about three weeks past the predicted 'next 24-48 hours or next week or so' window.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[3620,"The United States, jointly with Israel, launched major combat operations against Iran on February 28, 2026 — nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours against Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Trump announced the strikes in a 2:30 a.m. EST message on February 28, inside the end-of-February window.","https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war","research"],[7965,"Congress did not pass and Trump did not sign DHS funding legislation by Jan 30, 2026; the House did not vote on the Senate-passed package until Feb 3, 2026, four days after the deadline, when Trump signed a bill giving DHS only a two-week stopgap through Feb 13.","https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5701980-house-government-funding-bills/","research"],[6679,"On March 5, 2026 Trump announced Kristi Noem was out as Secretary of Homeland Security, naming Sen. Markwayne Mullin as her replacement effective March 31, 2026; Noem was moved to a Special Envoy role, making her the first cabinet secretary to leave the second Trump administration.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kristi-noem-out-as-secretary-of-homeland-security-markwayne-mullin/","research"],[5148,"After Operation Metro Surge ended February 12, 2026, DHS launched a new city surge in New York City on July 27, 2026, announced by border czar Tom Homan and beginning in Queens before expanding metro-wide, with masked, body-armored agents making street stops and pepper-spraying protesters by July 31.","https://www.amny.com/immigration/ice-agents-new-york-surge-arrests-immigrants-07312026/","research"],[5146,"No enacted law reduced ICE funding below One Big Beautiful Bill levels. The FY26 DHS appropriations act (P.L. 119-86, signed April 30, 2026) simply carried no ICE/CBP line, and Congress then passed the Secure America Act (Senate 52-47 June 5, House 214-212 June 9), signed June 10, 2026, adding roughly $70 billion for ICE and CBP through FY2029.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/09/nx-s1-5851664/house-reconciliation-vote-immigration-enforcement-ice-border-patrol","research"],[4661,"White House border czar Tom Homan announced the end of Operation Metro Surge on 2026-02-12, two weeks after the claim; DHS wound the Minneapolis-St. Paul operation down rather than continuing it.","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Metro_Surge","research"],[4660,"No prosecutor filed charges over the conduct of the 2020 Fulton County election after 2026-01-29. On 2026-07-07 Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge William M. Ray quashed DOJ's subpoena for Fulton County 2020 election-worker identities, noting the statute of limitations for any 2020 election-related crimes has expired; the Georgia State Election Board had already dismissed its Fulton probe finding no conspiracy.","https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/doj-subpoena-fulton-county-georgia-election-trump.html","research"],[7963,"No DHS/ICE funding legislation was enacted by the Jan 30, 2026 deadline; the Senate passed a bill Jan 30 but the House (in recess) did not vote until Feb 3, when Trump signed a package giving DHS only a two-week continuing resolution through Feb 13 rather than resolving the disputed ICE funding by the deadline.","https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5701980-house-government-funding-bills/","research"],[7956,"A partial federal shutdown began at 12:01 a.m. on Jan 31, 2026 (the moment the Jan 30 funding deadline lapsed) after the Senate-passed package could not clear the House in time; the shutdown lasted until Feb 3, 2026.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/30/politics/government-shutdown-senate-vote-congress-dhs-ice-funding","research"],[5663,"Bovino was not the last: Trump fired DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on March 5, 2026, with an administration official citing 'the fallout in Minnesota' among the reasons, and ICE acting director Todd Lyons resigned at the end of May 2026.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/5/trump-says-he-will-replace-homeland-security-chief-kristi-noem","research"],[5661,"Trump delivered the Feb 24, 2026 State of the Union at 1 hour 48 minutes - the longest in US history, exceeding his own prior record - and coverage centered on false claims about the economy and crime rather than on diminished coherence. Reporting described the marathon speech as failing to assuage pre-existing doubts about his acuity, not as markedly less coherent than his previous SOTU addresses.","https://www.factcheck.org/2026/02/factchecking-trumps-state-of-the-union-address/","research"],[5143,"Both left DHS: Noem was fired as Secretary on March 5, 2026, and DHS confirmed on March 28, 2026 that senior adviser Corey Lewandowski no longer held a role at the department following her ouster.","https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/homeland-security-corey-lewandowski-left-job-noem-rcna265625","research"],[5142,"Trump fired Kristi Noem as Homeland Security Secretary on March 5, 2026 after mounting criticism of her leadership during the Minneapolis ICE crisis; Sen. Markwayne Mullin was sworn in as her replacement on March 24, 2026.","https://www.npr.org/2026/03/05/nx-s1-5667546/kristi-noem-homeland-security-fired","research"],[7941,"The Senate passed a package of five full-year appropriations bills plus a two-week DHS continuing resolution 71-29 on Jan 30, but the House had recessed and did not vote until Feb 3 (Trump signed it that day), so Congress as a whole had not passed any such package by the Jan 30 deadline; the package that eventually passed also gave DHS temporary funding through Feb 13 rather than leaving it unfunded as the claim specified.","https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/minority/senate-passes-five-funding-bills-strips-out-dhs-bill-to-ensure-negotiations-proceed-to-rein-in-ice-and-cbp","research"],[7940,"The Jan 31-Feb 3, 2026 shutdown affected only departments funded by six still-unresolved appropriations bills (State, Treasury, Defense, Transportation, HUD, HHS, Labor, Education, DHS, plus EOP/some independent agencies/judiciary), while Agriculture, VA, Interior, Energy, Justice, Commerce, EPA, NASA and NSF stayed open under already-enacted full-year funding -- a narrower scope than the Oct 1-Nov 12, 2025 shutdown, which lapsed funding government-wide.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/28/politics/government-shutdown-impact-january-2026","research"],[7939,"Senate Democrats withheld the votes needed for the DHS funding bill after the Jan 24, 2026 CBP killing of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, demanding ICE/CBP reforms; when the Jan 30 deadline passed, a lapse in appropriations began at 12:01 a.m. Jan 31, 2026 affecting DHS and other departments (a partial shutdown lasting until Feb 3).","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/26/nx-s1-5686473/senate-democrats-to-vote-against-dhs-funding-setting-up-potential-partial-shutdown","research"],[7935,"The federal funding dispute over DHS/ICE-CBP accountability produced a government shutdown beginning January 31, 2026, affecting about half of federal departments, lasting until February 3, 2026.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/31/nx-s1-5694696/partial-government-shutdown-begins-despite-senate-approval-of-spending-deal","research"],[7931,"Senate Democrats rejected the combined appropriations package on January 29, 2026 specifically over DHS/ICE-CBP accountability provisions, forcing Senate leaders to strip DHS out into a short-term continuing resolution on January 30; the resulting delay produced a funding lapse beginning January 31, 2026, directly stemming from the DHS dispute.","https://rollcall.com/2026/01/29/senate-talks-move-in-direction-of-splitting-off-dhs-funding-bill/","research"],[7930,"A partial government shutdown began January 31, 2026, affecting roughly half of federal departments (including Defense, State, and HHS) after the DHS-related funding dispute delayed final House passage of the spending package; the shutdown lasted through February 3, 2026.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/31/nx-s1-5694696/partial-government-shutdown-begins-despite-senate-approval-of-spending-deal","research"],[7922,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. that Idaho's and West Virginia's laws requiring school athletes to compete on teams matching their biological sex at birth do not violate equal protection, upholding the challenged state laws barring transgender girls from girls' school sports.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5836513/supreme-court-transgender-athletes","research"],[7901,"Usha and JD Vance's fourth child, a son named Alec Neel Vance, was born Sunday, July 19, 2026 — 15 days after the required July 4, 2026 date — not on July 4 as predicted.","https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/19/politics/usha-vance-fourth-child","research"],[7896,"As of February 8, 2026, Hamas's political leader Khaled Meshaal publicly rejected disarmament demands while Israeli occupation continued, and no verified surrender of small arms or other weapons categories occurred by February 12, 2026; a disarmament framework was not even agreed until a July 30, 2026 deal that itself scheduled disarmament in phases over roughly 200-350 additional days.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/8/hamas-leader-rejects-disarmament-while-israeli-occupation-of-gaza-continues","research"],[7887,"On June 29, 2026 the Supreme Court in Trump v. Cook (25A312) declined to stay the lower-court injunction reinstating Lisa Cook, holding the President failed to give her the statutory notice and hearing required before removal for cause, thereby blocking Trump's immediate firing.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/29/nx-s1-5557955/supreme-court-fed-lisa-cook","research"],[7883,"The Supreme Court's February 20, 2026 decision in Learning Resources v. Trump held 6-3 that Trump lacked authority under IEEPA to impose his tariff regime, invalidating the tariffs and confirming he did not have the asserted power, well before the June 30, 2026 resolve_by date.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf","research"],[5650,"Macron was still President of France through the end of the window: he chaired the Global Convergence for Growth Summit on June 11, 2026 and hosted the G7 Summit in Evian June 15-17, 2026. His second term runs to May 2027.","https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2026/06/17/g7-summit-in-evian-day-three","research"],[5648,"Trump's overnight barrage of Greenland social media posts turned the Jan 2026 Davos gathering into an emergency summit, and in his Jan 21, 2026 speech he castigated European leaders over migration and economic policy while complaining about resistance to his Greenland takeover; he also threatened 10% tariffs on eight European nations if no Greenland deal was reached by Feb 1. Macron responded that France would stand up to 'bullies'.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/01/20/trump-davos-greenland-europe-denmark/","research"],[7860,"On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (consolidated with Trump v. V.O.S. Selections) that IEEPA does not authorize the tariffs Trump imposed under it, striking down those emergency-power tariffs well before the June 30, 2026 resolve_by date.","https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/24-1287_4gcj.pdf","research"],[7859,"No Iranian national election producing a pro-democracy, pro-US leader occurred by July 16, 2026; the sole leadership change was the Assembly of Experts' internal clerical selection of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader in March 2026, not a popular election and not a pro-Western outcome.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/9/world-reacts-to-appointment-of-mojtaba-khamenei-as-irans-supreme-leader","research"],[7858,"Cuba held no national election by July 16, 2026; the government again delayed People's Power delegate elections in 2026 amid mass protests over blackouts and shortages, with the next parliamentary election not scheduled until 2028.","https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/336582","research"],[7857,"National Assembly president Jorge Rodriguez explicitly ruled out near-term elections on February 10, 2026, saying stabilization must come first, and no Venezuelan national election was held by the July 16, 2026 deadline; opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said as of May 2026 she still planned to run only 'by end of 2026' at the earliest.","https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/02/10/latam-venezuela-elelctions-later/1371770749886/","research"],[7856,"Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, but Iran's Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader on March 8-9, 2026, preserving the Islamic Republic's governing structure through and beyond the July 16, 2026 deadline — a succession within the regime, not its fall.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/8/iran-names-khameneis-son-as-new-supreme-leader-after-fathers-killing-2","research"],[7855,"Miguel Diaz-Canel remained Cuba's president through mid-2026, still leading Communist Party proceedings and announcing 'urgent changes' on June 18, 2026, despite blackouts, fuel shortages and unrest; no collapse, overthrow, or formal replacement of the communist regime occurred by the July 16, 2026 deadline.","https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/18/cubas-president-miguel-diaz-canel-admits-urgent-changes-needed-to-overcome-crisis","research"],[7854,"After Maduro's January 3, 2026 capture, fellow Chavista/PSUV figure Delcy Rodriguez was installed as interim president and her administration (with brother Jorge Rodriguez heading the National Assembly) remained Venezuela's national government through the July 16, 2026 deadline and beyond — still negotiating a transition with the opposition as of August 2026, with no collapse, overthrow, or formal replacement of Chavista governing power.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/9/what-is-chavismo-and-is-it-dead-after-us-abduction-of-venezuelas-maduro","research"],[7849,"The Supreme Court upheld both the Idaho and West Virginia laws barring male athletes from girls' and women's sports in its June 30, 2026 ruling in the consolidated Hecox/B.P.J. transgender-athlete cases.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5836513/supreme-court-transgender-athletes","research"],[7826,"No sustained direct U.S.-Iran hostilities began by January 31, 2026; only a U.S. military buildup in the region was underway. The United States and Israel jointly struck Iran for the first time on February 28, 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials and triggering large-scale Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf states -- the war began nearly a month after the resolve-by date.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5730158/israel-iran-strikes-trump-us","research"],[7825,"The existing NO for the end-of-January deadline is retained. CENTCOM confirms the qualifying military operation began February 28, after that deadline. The later strike supplies timing context only and earns no correctness credit.","https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4418396/us-forces-launch-operation-epic-fury/","research"],[7817,"On January 29, 2026 (before the February 1 resolve-by date), Senate Democrats formally voted down the combined appropriations package specifically because it funded DHS/ICE/CBP without new accountability restrictions, forcing the DHS bill to be stripped out; this directly produced a funding lapse beginning January 31, 2026 -- Democrats' ICE-funding-based withholding both threatened and produced the shutdown by the deadline.","https://rollcall.com/2026/01/29/senate-talks-move-in-direction-of-splitting-off-dhs-funding-bill/","research"],[7802,"No federal shutdown began during the January 19-25, 2026 week. A partial shutdown instead began January 31, 2026 at 12:01am ET, driven by Democratic opposition to DHS/ICE funding without immigration-enforcement restrictions following the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good by federal agents.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/31/us-senate-approves-spending-package-but-short-government-shutdown-likely","research"],[7801,"Cuba's communist government under Miguel Diaz-Canel remained the national government through the April 13, 2026 deadline; on April 16, 2026 Diaz-Canel publicly said Cuba does not seek conflict with the U.S. but is prepared to fight amid pressure and blockade threats, and the ruling Communist Party held its Ninth Congress April 16-19, 2026 re-affirming leadership through 2031, with no collapse, overthrow, or replacement having occurred.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/cuban-president-defiant-amid-us-pressure-and-energy-blockade-threats","research"],[7800,"Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, and Iran underwent a severe succession crisis, but the Islamic Republic system itself was not overthrown or formally replaced: his son Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as the new Supreme Leader by March 8, 2026, and the Islamic Republic government continued to exercise national governing power (including negotiating and later imposing tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic) through and beyond the April 13, 2026 deadline.","https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603125349","research"],[7796,"The Supreme Court's June 30, 2026 ruling upholding the Idaho and West Virginia bans split 6-3 along ideological lines on the dispositive equal-protection question (unanimous only on the separate Title IX claim), with Justice Kavanaugh authoring the majority opinion -- matching the predicted 6-3 vote for the controlling judgment.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5836513/supreme-court-transgender-athletes","research"],[7795,"On June 30, 2026 the Supreme Court, in the consolidated Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J. decision, upheld the Idaho and West Virginia laws barring male athletes from girls' and women's sports (unanimous on the Title IX claim, 6-3 on the equal-protection claim), rejecting the challenges brought against both bans.","https://www.npr.org/2026/06/30/nx-s1-5836513/supreme-court-transgender-athletes","research"],[7788,"The FOMC voted to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% at its January 27-28, 2026 meeting, per the Federal Reserve's official statement; ten members voted for the action while two dissented in favor of a cut.","https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm","research"],[7781,"As of January 14, 2026, the Supreme Court had not issued its tariff ruling; contemporaneous reporting noted the court 'could issue a ruling as soon as today... it had been expected to rule last week' but had not done so, and it remained undecided. The actual ruling striking down most IEEPA tariffs came February 20, 2026.","https://fortune.com/2026/01/14/us-supreme-court-tariff-ruling-trump/","research"],[7780,"As of January 14, 2026, the Supreme Court had not issued its tariff ruling; contemporaneous reporting noted the court 'could issue a ruling as soon as today... it had been expected to rule last week' but had not done so, and it remained undecided. The actual ruling striking down most IEEPA tariffs came February 20, 2026.","https://fortune.com/2026/01/14/us-supreme-court-tariff-ruling-trump/","research"],[7774,"The existing NO for the January 13 deadline is retained. CENTCOM dates the later qualifying US/partner strikes to February 28. This adds measured late context, not near-miss credit, and does not replace the original deadline with the later event date.","https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4418396/us-forces-launch-operation-epic-fury/","research"],[7773,"A federal funding lapse began January 31, 2026 after the Senate rejected a combined 6-bill appropriations package on January 29 over the DHS/ICE-CBP accountability dispute following the killing of Alex Pretti by a CBP agent; the Senate then split off DHS into a 2-week continuing resolution, but the House could not pass the revised package until February 3 under the 72-hour rule, so a lapse in appropriations occurred with DHS/ICE funding as a material, proximate cause.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/31/nx-s1-5694696/partial-government-shutdown-begins-despite-senate-approval-of-spending-deal","research"],[7772,"A federal funding lapse began at the January 31, 2026 deadline; Senate Democrats withholding votes over unresolved ICE/DHS funding (demanding reforms after the fatal CBP shooting of Alex Pretti) was the material, publicly reported cause of the shutdown.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/26/nx-s1-5686473/senate-democrats-to-vote-against-dhs-funding-setting-up-potential-partial-shutdown","research"],[7771,"A federal funding lapse began at the January 31, 2026 deadline; Senate Democrats withholding votes over unresolved ICE/DHS funding (demanding reforms after the fatal CBP shooting of Alex Pretti) was the material, publicly reported cause of the shutdown.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/26/nx-s1-5686473/senate-democrats-to-vote-against-dhs-funding-setting-up-potential-partial-shutdown","research"],[7770,"Despite a historic nationwide uprising beginning in late December 2025 and a violent security crackdown (thousands killed by the regime's own count, with the UN citing far higher tolls, plus internet blackouts and mass arrests), Khamenei and the Islamic Republic retained effective national control throughout January 2026; no successor government or loss of central control occurred by January 31, 2026 (Khamenei was not killed until an Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, well after the resolve-by date).","https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iranian-government-shuts-internet-violent-crackdown-continues-rcna253147","research"],[7757,"In the March 3, 2026 Texas Republican primary, the non-binding Proposition 10 to prohibit Sharia law passed with 1,903,489 votes (94.81%) in favor versus 104,290 (5.19%) opposed, well above the 60% threshold.","https://www.ballotready.org/measures/republican-party-proposition-10","research"],[7740,"Trump's proposed one-year 10% credit-card interest-rate cap was only a Truth Social/public call for voluntary compliance or future legislation, never implemented via binding law or executive order; as of January 20-21, 2026 the CFPB confirmed there is 'no generally applicable federal law that limits the interest rate that can be charged by a credit card company,' and banks had largely kept their rates unchanged.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-10-percent-credit-card-rate-cap-banks-january-20/","research"],[7722,"On January 9, 2026 the Supreme Court's only opinion released was Bowe v. United States, a habeas corpus case; Justice Sotomayor told the courtroom 'it's not the case you thought,' confirming no tariff ruling was issued that day. The Court did not rule on the IEEPA tariff challenge until February 20, 2026.","https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/01/no-tariff-opinion/","research"],[7721,"On Friday night, January 9, 2026, an anti-ICE protest in downtown Minneapolis turned violent: protesters threw snow, ice and rocks at officers and vehicles, smashed windows and spray-painted the Depot Renaissance Hotel causing roughly $6,000 in property damage, one officer sustained minor injuries, and 30 people were arrested -- a documented physical clash with injury and material property damage within the January 9-11 window.","https://www.gmtoday.com/news/national/city-30-arrests-some-damage-caused-during-raucous-ice-protest-in-downtown-minneapolis/article_7be98328-fb39-4e63-b6ff-7b1770750956.html","research"],[7717,"A lapse in federal appropriations began at 12:01 a.m. on January 31, 2026 when the funding deadline passed without the House concurring on the Senate's spending package, triggering a partial government shutdown on or before the resolve-by date.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/31/us-senate-approves-spending-package-but-short-government-shutdown-likely","research"],[7689,"Border czar Tom Homan announced on February 4, 2026 that only about 700 of roughly 2,700-3,000 federal immigration agents (about 25%) would leave Minnesota, describing it as a tactical shift rather than a full withdrawal; Mayor Frey called it 'not de-escalation' and said he would 'believe it when I see it.' Operation Metro Surge continued with thousands of remaining agents and did not officially end until February 12, 2026 -- after the February 7 resolve-by date -- so ICE agents were not removed from Minneapolis by the deadline.","https://www.npr.org/2026/02/12/nx-s1-5712280/minnesota-ice-surge-ends","research"],[7680,"The official 98th Academy Awards Best Picture nominees, announced January 22, 2026, are Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams -- Song Sung Blue is absent; Kate Hudson's only nomination from that film was for Best Actress.","https://abc7.com/post/2026-oscars-nominations-see-full-list-nominees-98th-annual-academy-awards/18439265/","research"],[7679,"Kate Hudson was nominated for Best Actress for her performance in Song Sung Blue at the 98th Academy Awards (March 15, 2026) but lost to Jessie Buckley for Hamnet; Hudson did not win any competitive Academy Award for the film.","https://www.npr.org/2026/03/15/nx-s1-5739287/oscars-2026-winners-list-best-picture-actor-actress","research"],[7675,"Amy Klobuchar formally launched her campaign for Minnesota governor in a video announcement on January 29, 2026, well before the August 11, 2026 primary deadline, and has campaigned as a declared candidate since.","https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/amy-klobuchar-minnesota-governor-campaign-announced/","research"],[7674,"Amy Klobuchar formally launched her campaign for Minnesota governor in a video announcement on January 29, 2026, well before the August 11, 2026 primary deadline, and has campaigned as a declared candidate since.","https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/amy-klobuchar-minnesota-governor-campaign-announced/","research"],[5623,"The administration did not stop at the Jan 3, 2026 Venezuela raid: on Feb 28, 2026 US forces joined Israel in roughly 900 strikes in 12 hours across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC leadership, and on Mar 6, 2026 US and Ecuadorian forces bombed a Comandos de la Frontera camp near the Colombia border in 'Operation Total Extermination'. A second overt US military operation against another country was carried out, though not against Cuba or Colombia specifically (those remained threats/economic blockade only).","https://www.cfr.org/articles/guide-trumps-second-term-military-strikes-and-actions","research"],[7669,"The House voted on veto overrides for both bills on January 8, 2026 and both failed to reach the required two-thirds majority: H.R. 131 failed 248-177 and H.R. 504 failed 236-188, so both of Trump's vetoes remained in force through and beyond January 31.","https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/504/all-actions","research"],[7668,"The House passed a three-year extension of enhanced ACA premium tax credits by a 230-196 vote on January 8, 2026, with 17 Republicans joining Democrats, well before the January 31 deadline.","https://www.npr.org/2026/01/08/nx-s1-5662625/house-vote-affordable-care-act-subsidies","research"],[7667,"Federal funding remained in place through January 30, 2026; the resulting lapse actually began January 31, 2026 at 12:01am ET (driven by the DHS/ICE funding dispute), one day after the predicted January 30, 2026 date, not on January 30 itself.","https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/31/us-senate-approves-spending-package-but-short-government-shutdown-likely","research"],[7661,"Every publicly released poll of the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary from February through July 2026 showed Andy Biggs in first place (rising from about 40% to over 60%), and he won the July 21, 2026 primary outright with roughly 71.5% of the vote over David Schweikert.","https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2026/07/21/arizona-governor-primary-election-results-2026-live-updates/","research"],[7655,"On January 5, 2026, Defense Secretary Hegseth issued a Secretarial Letter of Censure against Kelly that opened only an administrative process toward reducing his retired Navy rank and pension -- explicitly stopping short of recalling him to active duty for court-martial, the more severe option the Pentagon had floated in November 2025. No recommendation combining recall to active duty and court-martial was ever issued; a federal judge later blocked even the rank-reduction process in February 2026.","https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/hegseth-issues-letter-of-censure-to-sen-kelly-after-warning-about-following-illegal-orders","research"],[7641,"The Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium on February 8, 2026, making Seattle the official winner.","https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202602080nwe.htm","research"],[7639,"As of the July 25, 2026 ISW/Critical Threats assessment and reporting through late July, only preliminary US-Ukraine talks on a possible air ceasefire existed (Kremlin called it premature to comment on July 26), while Ukrainian and Russian forces continued active strikes on energy, logistics, and military targets; no nationwide ceasefire or armistice halting significant hostilities was implemented by July 31, 2026.","https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2026","research"],[7638,"The New York Knicks defeated the San Antonio Spurs 4-1 to win the 2026 NBA Finals (their first title in 53 years), with Jalen Brunson named Finals MVP; the Spurs did not win the championship.","https://www.nba.com/news/how-the-knicks-won-the-2026-nba-championship","research"],[7631,"On February 28, 2026, Trump authorized and the U.S., alongside Israel, launched Operation Epic Fury, a military campaign whose publicly documented objective included dismantling Iran's regime military threat; within 24 hours the strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior aides and destroyed IRGC military and security sites, all before the March 3, 2026 deadline.","https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/peace-through-strength-president-trump-launches-operation-epic-fury-to-crush-iranian-regime-end-nuclear-threat/","research"],[7629,"By January 10, 2026, neither Jeffries nor Schumer had approved of or endorsed the Maduro capture's outcome; both confined their public statements to criticizing the operation's legality and lack of congressional authorization. Schumer called the action 'reckless' and warned of 'endless war,' while Jeffries called it an 'act of war' requiring congressional approval, and both jointly called the plan to govern Venezuela 'unacceptable.'","https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/politics/2026/01/03/u-s--venezuela-strikes-maduro-captured-congress-reaction","research"],[7628,"Maduro and Cilia Flores made their initial appearance/arraignment at the Daniel Patrick Moynihan U.S. Courthouse in Manhattan (SDNY) on Monday, January 5, 2026, before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, not on the predicted January 3, 2026 (the indictment was unsealed January 3, but the arraignment itself took place two days later).","https://abcnews.com/US/maduro-wife-manhattan-federal-court-monday/story?id=128903135","research"],[7627,"U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis had two standing injunctions blocking Abrego Garcia's re-detention and third-country deportation to Liberia; in March 2026 the Trump administration was still asking her to lift the block rather than having removed him, and the block remained in place (upheld again at a May 2026 hearing). He was never physically removed from the U.S. by March 31, 2026.","https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-asks-judge-to-lift-order-blocking-kilmar-abrego-garcias-deportation/","research"],[7625,"DOJ identified roughly 6 million potentially responsive Epstein-related pages and had published about 3.5 million of them as of January 30, 2026 in compliance with the Epstein Files Transparency Act -- well short of the 7.6 million midpoint required for the total to be 'closer to 10 million than to 5.2 million,' and no larger completed total was identified by the March 31, 2026 deadline.","https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-publishes-35-million-responsive-pages-compliance-epstein-files","research"]],"receipt_chunk_size":128,"receipt_chunk_count":25,"receipt_path_template":"/data/ledger/receipts-{chunk}.json","provenance_path":"/data/public_ledger_provenance.json","quotes_path":"/data/public_ledger_quotes.json","search_path":"/data/public_ledger_search.json"}